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      01-25-2016, 05:29 PM   #1
saint3448
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Question How reliable are BMW estimated production dates?

Hey folks -

I'm a little late to the M2 party, and have been talking with two dealerships in my area about putting in an order. This would be my first purchase of a custom ordered vehicle from BMW.

At one dealership, they have 1 allotted dealership car in production right now (which I don't want), and no one on any wait list. When I asked, the sales rep plugged the order into BMW and quoted me an estimated production date of March.

The second dealership has 1 allocated and ordered, and I would be the 2nd. When he does the same thing (plugs the order into BMW's system), BMW also estimates a March production.

Is that how it works? I'm hesitant to put in my order, if it turns out these two dealerships won't get any more M2s built for them until 2017.

Excuse my ignorance
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      01-25-2016, 06:23 PM   #2
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To some extent, we are all ignorant, and living on hopes and dreams. Things should firm up here in a month, when dealers should start hearing directly from BMW what allocations they are getting for February, and then a month later for March, etc.

But I'd be pretty pleased about being #2, frankly. I started earlier, and I'm nowhere close to #2 (although probably working with a dealer whose allocations might normally be larger, too).
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      01-25-2016, 06:26 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saint3448 View Post
Hey folks -

I'm a little late to the M2 party, and have been talking with two dealerships in my area about putting in an order. This would be my first purchase of a custom ordered vehicle from BMW.

At one dealership, they have 1 allotted dealership car in production right now (which I don't want), and no one on any wait list. When I asked, the sales rep plugged the order into BMW and quoted me an estimated production date of March.

The second dealership has 1 allocated and ordered, and I would be the 2nd. When he does the same thing (plugs the order into BMW's system), BMW also estimates a March production.

Is that how it works? I'm hesitant to put in my order, if it turns out these two dealerships won't get any more M2s built for them until 2017.

Excuse my ignorance
I've had 3 BMWs custom built over the last 9 years. (All also in March). After getting a production number, the delivery should be 6-8 weeks later, depending on what port you're at.

Your dealers *should* get some number of new M2 allocations each month, depending on their past sales figures. This is not a "limited edition" car, any more than the m3/m4 are. Due to market demand, I'd imagine 10K+ should be produced for the US/Canada market within the 8-month production cycle.
Using 10K+, I don't see why 10-30 wouldn't be allocated to each dealership over the course of the 4 month production i.e. 2-7/mo.
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      01-25-2016, 07:56 PM   #4
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All good info. Thanks for the responses. I think I'm gonna pull the trigger.
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      01-25-2016, 08:23 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster View Post
I'd imagine 10K+ should be produced for the US/Canada market within the 8-month production cycle.
Using 10K+, I don't see why 10-30 wouldn't be allocated to each dealership over the course of the 4 month production i.e. 2-7/mo.
What? Not a chance. Most dealers will not see more then a handful for remainder of year by the looks of it.
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      01-25-2016, 10:05 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dabozo View Post
What? Not a chance. Most dealers will not see more then a handful for remainder of year by the looks of it.
By the looks of what? That estimate was based on actual, prior year m3/m4 sales in US and Canada.
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      01-25-2016, 11:27 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster
Quote:
Originally Posted by saint3448 View Post
Hey folks -

I'm a little late to the M2 party, and have been talking with two dealerships in my area about putting in an order. This would be my first purchase of a custom ordered vehicle from BMW.

At one dealership, they have 1 allotted dealership car in production right now (which I don't want), and no one on any wait list. When I asked, the sales rep plugged the order into BMW and quoted me an estimated production date of March.

The second dealership has 1 allocated and ordered, and I would be the 2nd. When he does the same thing (plugs the order into BMW's system), BMW also estimates a March production.

Is that how it works? I'm hesitant to put in my order, if it turns out these two dealerships won't get any more M2s built for them until 2017.

Excuse my ignorance
I've had 3 BMWs custom built over the last 9 years. (All also in March). After getting a production number, the delivery should be 6-8 weeks later, depending on what port you're at.

Your dealers *should* get some number of new M2 allocations each month, depending on their past sales figures. This is not a "limited edition" car, any more than the m3/m4 are. Due to market demand, I'd imagine 10K+ should be produced for the US/Canada market within the 8-month production cycle.
Using 10K+, I don't see why 10-30 wouldn't be allocated to each dealership over the course of the 4 month production i.e. 2-7/mo.
I think a lot of people are assuming ..
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      01-25-2016, 11:28 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster
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Originally Posted by Dabozo View Post
What? Not a chance. Most dealers will not see more then a handful for remainder of year by the looks of it.
By the looks of what? That estimate was based on actual, prior year m3/m4 sales in US and Canada.
Oh lord.

That's why you are so far off.

BMW produces 1/10 as many 2 series as they do 3/4 series. If you are going to make any sort of correlation then perhaps you should apply a similar factor to your figures.
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      01-26-2016, 01:26 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster View Post
Oh lord.

That's why you are so far off.

BMW produces 1/10 as many 2 series as they do 3/4 series. If you are going to make any sort of correlation then perhaps you should apply a similar factor to your figures.

Why is that the correct comparison, as opposed to a comparison between M cars within those series?
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      01-26-2016, 02:34 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster
Quote:
Originally Posted by saint3448 View Post
Hey folks -

I'm a little late to the M2 party, and have been talking with two dealerships in my area about putting in an order. This would be my first purchase of a custom ordered vehicle from BMW.

At one dealership, they have 1 allotted dealership car in production right now (which I don't want), and no one on any wait list. When I asked, the sales rep plugged the order into BMW and quoted me an estimated production date of March.

The second dealership has 1 allocated and ordered, and I would be the 2nd. When he does the same thing (plugs the order into BMW's system), BMW also estimates a March production.

Is that how it works? I'm hesitant to put in my order, if it turns out these two dealerships won't get any more M2s built for them until 2017.

Excuse my ignorance
I've had 3 BMWs custom built over the last 9 years. (All also in March). After getting a production number, the delivery should be 6-8 weeks later, depending on what port you're at.

Your dealers *should* get some number of new M2 allocations each month, depending on their past sales figures. This is not a "limited edition" car, any more than the m3/m4 are. Due to market demand, I'd imagine 10K+ should be produced for the US/Canada market within the 8-month production cycle.
Using 10K+, I don't see why 10-30 wouldn't be allocated to each dealership over the course of the 4 month production i.e. 2-7/mo.
Im sorry but the wont be able to make 10.000+ for NA only unless they cancel all other orders on the i3, i8, 1-series, 2-series coupe and GT.

Many or most countries have alrdy been given a limited amount of quotas and some will have to wait until 2017-2018.

Its not limited in numbers but in time and production capability.
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      01-26-2016, 08:15 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Makman
Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster
Quote:
Originally Posted by saint3448 View Post
Hey folks -

I'm a little late to the M2 party, and have been talking with two dealerships in my area about putting in an order. This would be my first purchase of a custom ordered vehicle from BMW.

At one dealership, they have 1 allotted dealership car in production right now (which I don't want), and no one on any wait list. When I asked, the sales rep plugged the order into BMW and quoted me an estimated production date of March.

The second dealership has 1 allocated and ordered, and I would be the 2nd. When he does the same thing (plugs the order into BMW's system), BMW also estimates a March production.

Is that how it works? I'm hesitant to put in my order, if it turns out these two dealerships won't get any more M2s built for them until 2017.

Excuse my ignorance
I've had 3 BMWs custom built over the last 9 years. (All also in March). After getting a production number, the delivery should be 6-8 weeks later, depending on what port you're at.

Your dealers *should* get some number of new M2 allocations each month, depending on their past sales figures. This is not a "limited edition" car, any more than the m3/m4 are. Due to market demand, I'd imagine 10K+ should be produced for the US/Canada market within the 8-month production cycle.
Using 10K+, I don't see why 10-30 wouldn't be allocated to each dealership over the course of the 4 month production i.e. 2-7/mo.
Im sorry but the wont be able to make 10.000+ for NA only unless they cancel all other orders on the i3, i8, 1-series, 2-series coupe and GT.

Many or most countries have alrdy been given a limited amount of quotas and some will have to wait until 2017-2018.

Its not limited in numbers but in time and production capability.
It's funny to see how ( like with the 1M) european countries are running out of 2016 model year allocations and yet bimmer fans in the US are convinced that this car will be " everywhere" and discounted in 6 months
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      01-26-2016, 10:28 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster View Post
It's funny to see how ( like with the 1M) european countries are running out of 2016 model year allocations and yet bimmer fans in the US are convinced that this car will be " everywhere" and discounted in 6 months
Exactly. From what I gather with some google translating (so not 100% sure of accuracy except for Sweden) the 2016 allocations are already gone for Sweden, Belgium and Germany.
In Swedens case it looks like also 2017 allocations are gone... :O
For reference Sweden got 100 cars for 2016 and IIRC Belgium got 160.

As Makman pointed out production capacity is the limiting factor here and It looks like demand is far greater than supply in most countries.
Will be interesting to see the numbers for NA...
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      01-26-2016, 10:36 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster View Post
It's funny to see how ( like with the 1M) european countries are running out of 2016 model year allocations and yet bimmer fans in the US are convinced that this car will be " everywhere" and discounted in 6 months
yup...its very likely that if i continue to hang on for my allocation to come up, it will end up being a 2017 MY.

So much speculation out there right now...hopefully we start getting some concrete information soon.
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      01-26-2016, 10:42 AM   #14
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Quote:
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Why is that the correct comparison, as opposed to a comparison between M cars within those series?
note that I recommend he FACTOR that into the equation.

There are a lot of factors going into this... but .. what is clear is that BMW sells a TON more 3/4 series than 2 series. Literally a factor of ten to one.

Then determine how many of the 2 series models produced will be M2.
228/235/M2 The 228 is very common and the 235 is even more common and they both also come in convertible variants as well. So.. for every two series that comes down the line.. It's more likely to be one of the other eight versions of two series (228, 228 convertible, 228xdrive, 228 xdrive convertible, m235i,m235xdrive, m235 convertible, m235xdrive convertible ) than it is an M2.

We know the line has to be/had to be modified to accept the M2 wider shape.. Then consider the M2 has to be removed from the line for it's underpinnings... or.. in other words... more than likely there will be sets of M3/M4 suspensions coming to Leipzig for separate batch M2 production.

I would imagine that it is best efficiency wise for Leipzig to produce these in batches.. and then get back to the business of cranking out high volume cars like the X1 (think global production.. not your neighborhood).

Last edited by M3 Adjuster; 01-26-2016 at 10:48 AM..
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      01-26-2016, 11:07 AM   #15
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What is claimed from BMW source is production capacity of 16 M2 cars/day. The production can be ramped up to 33 cars/day.
Reliable data?? How knows....
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      01-26-2016, 03:20 PM   #16
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Well that escalated quickly.

Dealer called me back, the initial allocation they got was a LBB 6MT with Exec package.....with no one speaking for it.

Car was produced yesterday, now status 190.
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      01-27-2016, 12:01 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M3 Adjuster
Quote:
Originally Posted by BruceM View Post
Why is that the correct comparison, as opposed to a comparison between M cars within those series?
note that I recommend he FACTOR that into the equation.

There are a lot of factors going into this... but .. what is clear is that BMW sells a TON more 3/4 series than 2 series. Literally a factor of ten to one.

Then determine how many of the 2 series models produced will be M2.
228/235/M2 The 228 is very common and the 235 is even more common and they both also come in convertible variants as well. So.. for every two series that comes down the line.. It's more likely to be one of the other eight versions of two series (228, 228 convertible, 228xdrive, 228 xdrive convertible, m235i,m235xdrive, m235 convertible, m235xdrive convertible ) than it is an M2.

We know the line has to be/had to be modified to accept the M2 wider shape.. Then consider the M2 has to be removed from the line for it's underpinnings... or.. in other words... more than likely there will be sets of M3/M4 suspensions coming to Leipzig for separate batch M2 production.

I would imagine that it is best efficiency wise for Leipzig to produce these in batches.. and then get back to the business of cranking out high volume cars like the X1 (think global production.. not your neighborhood).
you forgot 218d, 220d/220i and 225d

220d most common in some countries
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      01-27-2016, 01:28 AM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster View Post
I've had 3 BMWs custom built over the last 9 years. (All also in March). After getting a production number, the delivery should be 6-8 weeks later, depending on what port you're at.

Your dealers *should* get some number of new M2 allocations each month, depending on their past sales figures. This is not a "limited edition" car, any more than the m3/m4 are. Due to market demand, I'd imagine 10K+ should be produced for the US/Canada market within the 8-month production cycle.
Using 10K+, I don't see why 10-30 wouldn't be allocated to each dealership over the course of the 4 month production i.e. 2-7/mo.
My car is at status 150. It went from 112 to 150 about 4 days ago. Are you saying I should have my M2 late March about?
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Soon.
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      01-27-2016, 02:58 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Adem1534
Quote:
Originally Posted by zenmaster View Post
I've had 3 BMWs custom built over the last 9 years. (All also in March). After getting a production number, the delivery should be 6-8 weeks later, depending on what port you're at.

Your dealers *should* get some number of new M2 allocations each month, depending on their past sales figures. This is not a "limited edition" car, any more than the m3/m4 are. Due to market demand, I'd imagine 10K+ should be produced for the US/Canada market within the 8-month production cycle.
Using 10K+, I don't see why 10-30 wouldn't be allocated to each dealership over the course of the 4 month production i.e. 2-7/mo.
My car is at status 150. It went from 112 to 150 about 4 days ago. Are you saying I should have my M2 late March about?
Yes, you will have it before launch...you're lucky my friend
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      01-27-2016, 05:02 AM   #20
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Quote:
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Yes, you will have it before launch...you're lucky my friend
If BMW releases the cars before official debut. My car will arrive in March too but I don't know if I can pick it up or not.
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      01-27-2016, 05:16 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metrickid
Quote:
Originally Posted by Makman View Post
Yes, you will have it before launch...you're lucky my friend
If BMW releases the cars before official debut. My car will arrive in March too but I don't know if I can pick it up or not.
yes true, but he will have it upon release then...something I wonder tho is, will it sleep at the port or dealer until delivery/release date? cause if its at the dealer you guys can check it out
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      01-27-2016, 05:51 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Makman View Post
yes true, but he will have it upon release then...something I wonder tho is, will it sleep at the port or dealer until delivery/release date? cause if its at the dealer you guys can check it out
In Sweden they are usually stored at port in Halmstad. This is mostly down to space though, sometimes the dealer has room to store it a few weeks.
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