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      10-03-2016, 02:22 PM   #661
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Quote:
Originally Posted by csu87 View Post
exactly. the left have been using past u6 figures to compare to u3 figures for the majority of the Obama Presidency



Again, the lefts claims that Obama took a high U6 and turned it into a low U3. U3 was around 7.8% when he took over 1/2009 and is now 4.9 which is decent, but considering we were right in the middle of a recession, you would expect those numbers to be better now. Compared to the U6 of ~14, 4.9 is great, compared to the U3, not as much as theyd like you to believe.
I haven't seen where those on the left have used those, but, I don't spend too much time perusing HuffPo or MSN, I suppose. Is that the types of places that are using this maneuver?

Also, while U3 was around there in 1/2009, it continued on up to 10% for one month later in the year. That's no surprise, though, given the lagging indicator nature of UE.

Quote:
Originally Posted by csu87
They have dropped, as is to be expected after a recession like we had, but not at the same rates. U3 is close to 40% while U6 is closer to 30%.

You then need to factor in the Labor Force Participation Rates, which is the lowest it has been since 1978, and the unemployment rates arent as appealing. These are the numbers that have been called into question during this administration. They have lowered the Labor Force Participation Rates, which then lowers the unemployment rates.
Agreed on LFPR, but the largest single factor driving that drop in LFPR (which started in 2000 and was largely predicted) has been a demographic issue. There are, without a doubt, other, non-demographic issues at play, but the entirety of that decline does not lay at the feet of the current Administration/House/Senate.

I'm now curious to see what the average decline rate has been for U1-U6 after prior recessions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by csu87
I think we are both on the same page that the Unemployment Rates as reported dont tell the correct story and that Unemployment is not as low as its reported.
Not that they don't tell the correct story, but they do not tell the whole story. Solid conversation
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      10-03-2016, 02:27 PM   #662
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The only "Story" being told by this administration is a work of fiction

Most everyone NOT on the government payroll agree's that stats have and continue to be manipulated to show a false rate of employment that is much much lower than actual

Similarly, economic conditions are also much much worse than officially reported fabrications indicate

The official cool aid flavor of the day is orange
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      10-03-2016, 06:22 PM   #663
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpnh View Post
The only "Story" being told by this administration is a work of fiction

Most everyone NOT on the government payroll agree's that stats have and continue to be manipulated to show a false rate of employment that is much much lower than actual

Similarly, economic conditions are also much much worse than officially reported fabrications indicate

The official cool aid flavor of the day is orange
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Hell, I get random sausage attacks when I go anywhere.

Several actors have played James Bond, Sean Connery IS James Bond...

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      10-03-2016, 10:08 PM   #664
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Originally Posted by PA135i View Post
I thought Alec Baldwin moved to Canada?

I clearly remember him saying that, if Bush won in 2004.

Ahhh maybe he just forgot.
He called his daughter a fat pig. So I guess he was born to play trump
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      10-03-2016, 10:12 PM   #665
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Quote:
Originally Posted by other_evolved View Post
I haven't seen where those on the left have used those, but, I don't spend too much time perusing HuffPo or MSN, I suppose. Is that the types of places that are using this maneuver?

Also, while U3 was around there in 1/2009, it continued on up to 10% for one month later in the year. That's no surprise, though, given the lagging indicator nature of UE.



Agreed on LFPR, but the largest single factor driving that drop in LFPR (which started in 2000 and was largely predicted) has been a demographic issue. There are, without a doubt, other, non-demographic issues at play, but the entirety of that decline does not lay at the feet of the current Administration/House/Senate.

I'm now curious to see what the average decline rate has been for U1-U6 after prior recessions.



Not that they don't tell the correct story, but they do not tell the whole story. Solid conversation
If unemployment is low, and therefore there is a relative shortage of workers, then why are wages stagnant? I wonder the impact of:

- Illegals - they are now ~10% of the population, and the majority are here for jobs. While some say "they do the jobs Americans won't," they take them at low wages and keep the market rate for *those* jobs too low to attract American workers (welfare pays better - who could blame them). Not sure how the Labor Department counts them (or doesn't) in the job stats?

- H1B visa workers - they typically take middle income jobs (largely IT), and have an average annual income of $75k. There is a limit of 65k visas per year, and 20k for students - so a total of 85k. The visas are good for up to 6 years, so there should be a max of 510k H1B visa workers. To this, Obama also added the Optional Practical Training visa program, which allows up to 120k foreign students to take jobs with American companies. So that's up to 630k foreign workers in the labor force - not sure how they are treated for statistical purposes in the US labor stats? The 630k number, if correct, would account for about 5% of US employment, I think.

So - in the worst case, these jobs held by non-Americans could inflate American unemployment stats by up to 15%. While I'm not saying my numbers/logic is absolutely factual, perhaps this explains stagnant wages and that uneasy feeling that the statistics are overly optimistic?

Edit: I just saw a source quoting 700k as the number of "guest workers" (including H1B's) in the US at any given time. This plus the sizable illegal labor force.
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      10-03-2016, 10:15 PM   #666
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Originally Posted by DF View Post
He called his daughter a fat pig. So I guess he was born to play trump
Whats that have to do with Alec moving to Canada.

I did like the SNL spoof they are always great.
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      10-04-2016, 10:22 AM   #667
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbbbmw View Post
If unemployment is low, and therefore there is a relative shortage of workers, then why are wages stagnant? I wonder the impact of:
We're actually starting to see wages creep up YoY (3-4% increase), which is nice to see (finally). There are a myriad of factors that go into wage growth vs stagnation....immigrants/illegal immigrants are one factor, but it's one of many. Part of the demographic slump that we're in, leading to a lower LFPR, is a big part of that reason as well. I read a great piece a while back (Reinhart/Rogoff - This Time is Different) that discussed the drop in the LFPR, and, according to age ranges and demographics, will start to creep back up starting in 2019/2020.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbbbmw

- Illegals - they are now ~10% of the population, and the majority are here for jobs. While some say "they do the jobs Americans won't," they take them at low wages and keep the market rate for *those* jobs too low to attract American workers (welfare pays better - who could blame them). Not sure how the Labor Department counts them (or doesn't) in the job stats?

- H1B visa workers - they typically take middle income jobs (largely IT), and have an average annual income of $75k. There is a limit of 65k visas per year, and 20k for students - so a total of 85k. The visas are good for up to 6 years, so there should be a max of 510k H1B visa workers. To this, Obama also added the Optional Practical Training visa program, which allows up to 120k foreign students to take jobs with American companies. So that's up to 630k foreign workers in the labor force - not sure how they are treated for statistical purposes in the US labor stats? The 630k number, if correct, would account for about 5% of US employment, I think.

So - in the worst case, these jobs held by non-Americans could inflate American unemployment stats by up to 15%. While I'm not saying my numbers/logic is absolutely factual, perhaps this explains stagnant wages and that uneasy feeling that the statistics are overly optimistic?

Edit: I just saw a source quoting 700k as the number of "guest workers" (including H1B's) in the US at any given time. This plus the sizable illegal labor force.
I did some reading on H1B's and their relationship to unemployment and, like anything, there are conflicting opinions, but one of the more data-supported pieces that I read determined that H1B workers actually IMPROVE the labor market for citizens in many sectors.

https://www.americanimmigrationcounc...ram-fact-sheet

They are usually brought in into already-competitive sectors with very low unemployment (ie, tech) and they are usually brought in for a reason, or as a last resort. One of the biggest benefits is the increase in innovation that comes from them in a lot of cases.

Your thought re: illegal immigrants leading to wage suppression is likely correct in some sense....I just don't know enough about the actual figures and their impact. In a sense, though, that pressure has been around for a long time. I'm not saying that it should be removed as a variable, but it is a factor in the boom times, and the bust times that we've seen over the past 16 years.
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      10-04-2016, 10:59 AM   #668
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This isnt so tough nor is a "nuanced" situation

If you require an employee to pay for Obamacare and other costs for one pool of employees and simultaneously make avail a second pool of employees which cost a LOT less because they dont have the same perverted gov mandates applied to them what the fuck do you think is going to happen

Its another case of gov perverting the market and fucking things up

In other news....the cool aid flavor of the day is "yellow"
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      10-04-2016, 01:09 PM   #669
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jpnh View Post
This isnt so tough nor is a "nuanced" situation

If you require an employee to pay for Obamacare and other costs for one pool of employees and simultaneously make avail a second pool of employees which cost a LOT less because they dont have the same perverted gov mandates applied to them what the fuck do you think is going to happen

Its another case of gov perverting the market and fucking things up

In other news....the cool aid flavor of the day is "yellow"
I liked what you were saying all the way up to the flavor of the day. I don't like yellow flavor in a drink, it reminds me too much of another yellow liquid, that I don't want no thing to be doing with.


Maybe that is intentional???
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      10-04-2016, 01:36 PM   #670
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Quote:
Originally Posted by other_evolved
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbbbmw View Post
If unemployment is low, and therefore there is a relative shortage of workers, then why are wages stagnant? I wonder the impact of:
We're actually starting to see wages creep up YoY (3-4% increase), which is nice to see (finally). There are a myriad of factors that go into wage growth vs stagnation....immigrants/illegal immigrants are one factor, but it's one of many. Part of the demographic slump that we're in, leading to a lower LFPR, is a big part of that reason as well. I read a great piece a while back (Reinhart/Rogoff - This Time is Different) that discussed the drop in the LFPR, and, according to age ranges and demographics, will start to creep back up starting in 2019/2020.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bbbbmw

- Illegals - they are now ~10% of the population, and the majority are here for jobs. While some say "they do the jobs Americans won't," they take them at low wages and keep the market rate for *those* jobs too low to attract American workers (welfare pays better - who could blame them). Not sure how the Labor Department counts them (or doesn't) in the job stats?

- H1B visa workers - they typically take middle income jobs (largely IT), and have an average annual income of $75k. There is a limit of 65k visas per year, and 20k for students - so a total of 85k. The visas are good for up to 6 years, so there should be a max of 510k H1B visa workers. To this, Obama also added the Optional Practical Training visa program, which allows up to 120k foreign students to take jobs with American companies. So that's up to 630k foreign workers in the labor force - not sure how they are treated for statistical purposes in the US labor stats? The 630k number, if correct, would account for about 5% of US employment, I think.

So - in the worst case, these jobs held by non-Americans could inflate American unemployment stats by up to 15%. While I'm not saying my numbers/logic is absolutely factual, perhaps this explains stagnant wages and that uneasy feeling that the statistics are overly optimistic?

Edit: I just saw a source quoting 700k as the number of "guest workers" (including H1B's) in the US at any given time. This plus the sizable illegal labor force.
I did some reading on H1B's and their relationship to unemployment and, like anything, there are conflicting opinions, but one of the more data-supported pieces that I read determined that H1B workers actually IMPROVE the labor market for citizens in many sectors.

https://www.americanimmigrationcounc...ram-fact-sheet

They are usually brought in into already-competitive sectors with very low unemployment (ie, tech) and they are usually brought in for a reason, or as a last resort. One of the biggest benefits is the increase in innovation that comes from them in a lot of cases.

Your thought re: illegal immigrants leading to wage suppression is likely correct in some sense....I just don't know enough about the actual figures and their impact. In a sense, though, that pressure has been around for a long time. I'm not saying that it should be removed as a variable, but it is a factor in the boom times, and the bust times that we've seen over the past 16 years.
I would find it hard to believe that H1B's don't displace US workers; Disney fired their entire graphic animation team (tens of thousands) and replaced with H1B's at a lower cost, and Intel just did the same, replacing 12k US workers with 14.5k H1B's.

In reading more, I came across the L-1 Visa program, where companies can bring in non-immigrant workers from their overseas branches, for 3 months to 5 years. There is also no cap on the number they can bring:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/L-1_visa

Again - these factors are potentially not reflected in our employment stats as a country...
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      10-04-2016, 01:37 PM   #671
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Originally Posted by UncleWede View Post
I liked what you were saying all the way up to the flavor of the day. I don't like yellow flavor in a drink, it reminds me too much of another yellow liquid, that I don't want no thing to be doing with.


Maybe that is intentional???
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      10-04-2016, 10:23 PM   #672
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Howard Stern now calling out CNN for lying about Trump supporting the war in Iraq...

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2016/10/...-report-397195
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      10-04-2016, 10:32 PM   #673
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Pence seems to be kicking Kaines ass. Kaine needs to shut up. He'll do better
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      10-05-2016, 10:40 AM   #674
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbbbmw View Post
Howard Stern now calling out CNN for lying about Trump supporting the war in Iraq...

http://www.bizpacreview.com/2016/10/...-report-397195
That's kind of a strange way to interpret that. CNN was lying about confirming with Stern about the comment. Stern did no such thing.

However, Trump did say, in response to "Are you for invading Iraq?" from Stern, "Yeah, I guess so. I wish the first time it was done correctly."

https://soundcloud.com/buzzfeedandre...n-sept-11-2002

@ 3:42

Pence clearly was in favor of it, as well, given his voting record.
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      10-05-2016, 10:56 AM   #675
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Does anybody really care about a passing comment ("I guess so") on a talk show made by a private citizen?

Seems to me that the real question is about the career politician who made a big hoo haw about confirming the intelligence provided by the bush administration and HER OWN SOURCES of information and concluding publicly that the invasion of Iraq was the RIGHT choice.......

Its one thing to vote in favor if it based on Administration provided intel

Its quite another to state you have your own sources who independently conclude same thing.......

This is Clinton 101.......she's made one bad decision after another wrt foreign policy and then either LIED to justify it OR tried to blame others for her bad decisions on everything from Iraq to Russia to Libya to Egypt to Syria to Iran.......everything this woman touches goes to shit

Now the Obama/Clinton approach is fueling a new conflict with Russia?!?!

Isnt it time to get these amatuers out of office before they really start WWIII?

http://metro.co.uk/2016/10/04/russia...-soon-6171489/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/191667...ntercept-them/

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/191389...issile-crisis/
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