Dead battery makes man locked out of his Te$la unless he pays $26k for a new one...

[jmg]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Using your charts, something that cost $40K in 2012 should be under $5k in 2022, and yet it isn't, buy a factor of 5:1. Your own facts are off by ~500% from your own predictions.

And we haven't even discussed the "antiquated replacement part" cost factor, which you have already acknowledge is a thing, and will continue to be a thing.

The link I provided was for a Tesla Roaster, it was all I could find for a direct real world quote in under a few minutes of googling. So the comparison isn't going to be 1:1. Understandably, it's not a very good example. But I did find this:

60kwh battery replacement for $35k in 2013 . So that's $583/kwh or $707/kwh in 2021 dollars.

The Tesla 100kwh battery replacement in this thread costing $26k is $260/kwh. So that's 63% cheaper than what it cost per kwh in 2013. Is this more or less wrong than your claim that it is NOT getting cheaper?

The graphs I provided is for cost of the battery itself, and does not, to my knowledge, include ancillary parts, labor, and distribution expenses that are involved in replacing said batteries in existing customer cars. It was merely to show that the overall cost is down significantly.

I provided two graphs, and 2 real world examples of price of batteries going down per kwh since 2010. I haven't seen any posts from anyone of prices going up to support that claim.

This, in addition to someone else's false claim that all EVs are 5000lbs++ speaks for itself. While I respect that someone might not LIKE the EV, which is completely subjective, disputing false statements shouldn't have anything to do with personal preference.

[Housekeeping]

I love my 22 Plaid, liking ICE less by the day as I now have an e39 with a rough idle and aMerc diesel with CE light over the weekend. So done with it

[jmg]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I was playing in climate sand box with you guys until H20_doc said that his people ("we") have accounted for axis inclination change in their climate control science machine. Please. I have better things to do. I've not yet stopped laughing. Maybe I should have asked about volcanoes instead...

My friends and colleagues at NASA and JPL with masters degrees in relevant fields of expertise regarding things like axis inclination don't share your opinion.


Telling someone you're laughing at them is a passive-aggressive way of belittling someone. I know rational discussion is over when someone resorts to ad hominem and that person is seldom on the right side of history.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by jmg

The link I provided was for a Tesla Roaster, it was all I could find for a direct real world quote in under a few minutes of googling. So the comparison isn't going to be 1:1. Understandably, it's not a very good example. But I did find this:

60kwh battery replacement for $35k in 2013 . So that's $583/kwh or $707/kwh in 2021 dollars.

The Tesla 100kwh battery replacement in this thread costing $26k is $260/kwh. So that's 63% cheaper than what it cost per kwh in 2013. Is this more or less wrong than your claim that it is NOT getting cheaper?

The graphs I provided is for cost of the battery itself, and does not, to my knowledge, include ancillary parts, labor, and distribution expenses that are involved in replacing said batteries in existing customer cars. It was merely to show that the overall cost is down significantly.

The 2013 example in the OP was not a 100KW battery, that wasn't even available at the time. If it were a 60KW battery, which was available in 2013, the cost reduction is 20% in 10 years. Your chart/facts shows about 800-1000% predicted. Which one of us is off more?

Overall cost to replace a battery is not down significantly. Profits for some manufactures may be up though, I won't argue that.

At the end of the day, it costs tens of thousands to replace in almost all brands/models. Let the buyer beware. If you buy an EV car today and need a battery in 8 years, you will be buying a part that is at least 8 years old - aka antiquated. It will cost more than current production costs because of that.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

The 2013 example in the OP was not a 100KW battery, that wasn't even available at the time.

I didn't say it was a 100kwh battery. I said it was a 60kwh battery.

Read my post again:

Originally Posted by jmg

60kwh battery replacement for $35k in 2013 . So that's $583/kwh or $707/kwh in 2021 dollars.

The Tesla 100kwh battery replacement in this thread costing $26k is $260/kwh. So that's 63% cheaper than what it cost per kwh in 2013. Is this more or less wrong than your claim that it is NOT getting cheaper?

OP link states a $120k Tesla, which is a Plaid, with a 100kwh battery.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Which one of us is off more?

Well you did say:

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Fact : EV batteries aren't actually getting cheaper, even as the technology allegedly matures.

Which is not compatible with it being 63% cheaper like I just showed with proof, so you are fundamentally more wrong.

[G MONEY]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

And that's the point, you'll never know who is on the right side of history. The climate is not going to change in any significant way during the remainder of your lifetime. Furthermore, you have no basis from which to judge it has changed do to human affect and whether it is good or bad. Observing weather patterns on yearly or even century time frames is pointless because of the geological scale.

If you really believed any of this climate hysteria you'd sell your M3 and drive just your i3. Yet you post pics in other threads of your track escapades at Laguna Seca. Tracking an M3 is a serous waste of carbon for no reason other than your selfish pleasure.

H20_doc has a Z51 package Z7 and a M2. BGM-M3comp drives an M3 too. You three are the loudest mouthed climate criers on Bimmerpost. So why should any of us give a crap about what you say. It's really a waste of electrons on top of the carbon fuel and resultant emissions you guys spew. That's the joke and why there is laughter.

Lol. Efthreeoh Wins. FLAWLESS VICTORY

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by jmg

I didn't say it was a 100kwh battery. I said it was a 60kwh battery.

Read my post again:



OP link states a $120k Tesla, which is a Plaid, with a 100kwh battery.





Well you did say:



Which is not compatible with it being 63% cheaper like I just showed with proof, so you are fundamentally more wrong.

Did you read the OP's link, or just skim it. It's not a $120K plaid, nor a 100Kw battery. It's a 2013 Tesla model S, and a current replacement battery replacement is $26,000

your link also supplied a 2013 Tesla model S with a 60KW pack that cost $35,000.

You quoted in another article that in 2012 batteries cost $40,000 new.

You showed charts and stated facts that batteries have come down 90%.

Using your facts (figures), those batteries should be $3000 - $6000 today depending on size. A 2012 $40,000 60Kw battery should be $4000 today not $26,000 today.

The AUDI and Chevy EV batteries cost is well over $30K or more today too, as are others. These should be $3000-6000 using your $/KW and 90% formulas.

Kind of hard to debate your facts if the math isn't correct. Either your math is wrong, your facts or wrong, or how you use them is. I'll let you decide.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by Sy1616

I love my 22 Plaid, liking ICE less by the day as I now have an e39 with a rough idle and aMerc diesel with CE light over the weekend. So done with it

The only ice I’ll be keeping is my c8z.

My next Tesla will be a plaid. Can’t decide on the S or X though.

Either car will absolutely crush anything in my way. Supercars and all.

Gotta love Elon!!!

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by jmg

My friends and colleagues at NASA and JPL with masters degrees in relevant fields of expertise regarding things like axis inclination don't share your opinion.


Telling someone you're laughing at them is a passive-aggressive way of belittling someone. I know rational discussion is over when someone resorts to ad hominem and that person is seldom on the right side of history.

Hahaha exactly.

Lots of insecure people posting. But it’s understandable since they’re anti ev people.

About as clueless as those manualtards.

[gonzo]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

Hahaha exactly.

Lots of insecure people posting. But it’s understandable since they’re anti ev people.

About as clueless as those manualtards.

You've probably got an hour to edit, or not, before the Ban Hammer strikes you. Fyi.

Don't know that I should even alert someone that says something so dense, but I did.

[jmg]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Did you read the OP's link, or just skim it. It's not a $120K plaid, nor a 100Kw battery. It's a 2013 Tesla model S, and a current replacement battery replacement is $26,000

your link also supplied a 2013 Tesla model S with a 60KW pack that cost $35,000.

You quoted in another article that in 2012 batteries cost $40,000 new.

You showed charts and stated facts that batteries have come down 90%.

Using your facts (figures), those batteries should be $3000 - $6000 today depending on size. A 2012 $40,000 60Kw battery should be $4000 today not $26,000 today.

The AUDI and Chevy EV batteries cost is well over $30K or more today too, as are others. These should be $3000-6000 using your $/KW and 90% formulas.

Kind of hard to debate your facts if the math isn't correct. Either your math is wrong, your facts or wrong, or how you use them is. I'll let you decide.

My mistake. I did not read all the way to the section where it said it was a 2013 S. I'm guessing the 2013 S had a 60kwh battery?

That's a $443/kwh cost to replace today vs $707/kwh in 2013. That's about 37% less. $26k vs $44k adjusted for inflation.

The 90% I quoted was for the cost of manufacturing a new battery based on several articles I read. Like I mentioned in my previous post, that does not mean that's how much it would cost to replace an old battery, which includes ancillary charges for labor and parts etc. Additionally, this is a legacy part. Perhaps the newer batteries are, in fact, cheaper, but this one isn't because it's an older battery?

Regardless, you said they were going up. 37% less is a decrease in price.

I did a search on MODERN Teslas and found this article which included labor:

https://www.recurrentauto.com/resear...lacement-costs

The Tesla 3 cost $16k and the article says $180/kwh including labor. That's 75% less than the $707/kwh. Still also not an increase in price.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

lmfao just let me keep my ice cars from the past and everyone can circle jerk all they want on EVs and hug trees




edit: my daily in the future if dailys are even needed will likely be a hybrid or fully electric

[Cos270]

Originally Posted by G35POPPEDMYCHERRY

lmfao just let me keep my ice cars from the past and everyone can circle jerk all they want on EVs and hug trees




edit: my daily in the future if dailys are even needed will likely be a hybrid or fully electric

That's literally what 90% of the "EV deniers", as they're being labeled, are asking for. A choice in the matter.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by gonzo

[/B]

You've probably got an hour to edit, or not, before the Ban Hammer strikes you. Fyi.

Don't know that I should even alert someone that says something so dense, but I did.

Why because your feelings is hurt?

It’s ok though I’ll just make another username.

I’m here for entertainment not to make any friends.

So let the hammer come, I’ll be back LOL

[jmg]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

And that's the point, you'll never know who is on the right side of history. The climate is not going to change in any significant way during the remainder of your lifetime. Furthermore, you have no basis from which to judge it has changed do to human affect and whether it is good or bad. Observing weather patterns on yearly or even century time frames is pointless because of the geological scale.

Again, there are people who are more qualified in this area who don't share your opinion.

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

If you really believed any of this climate hysteria you'd sell your M3 and drive just your i3. Yet you post pics in other threads of your track escapades at Laguna Seca. Tracking an M3 is a serous waste of carbon for no reason other than your selfish pleasure.

My M3 and my M4 are pretty much track only cars. I only put 12k miles on my last M3 over 3 years, even after I was splitting daily driving duties with it for the first year. I've had my M4 for 9 months and it only has 3k miles on it, mostly on weekend cruises and track days. I no longer even commute, but even when I was just running to the grocery store, I took the i3. I recently returned my leased i3 (my third leased i3 btw), and I am shopping for something as economical and fun to drive. However, it is difficult to justify it when I no longer commute. I also have an SUV, which we use for long distance road trips, something that I have always stated the EV isn't ideal for. Maybe one day. We are in the market for solar panels and battery cells, so we are doing something.

But you are right, I have no excuse. My M4 is for selfish pleasure. It is difficult to track an EV. There is one track in my area that has a charger nearby, but I only go to that track once or twice a year because of the distance. The ICE is just easier. However, to be clear, I know I'm not ready for 100% EV right now, but I don't expect anyone else to be either..

I know that not everyone can replace their old reliable 10 year old Corolla for even a used Tesla that will eventually need a new battery out of warranty. I stated in another post that leasing EVs is currently the best bet due to the cost of battery replacement. I know charging is an issue for those who live in an apartment. I'm a realist, believe it or not.

I also support the ICE ban in 2035 even though it means eventually giving up track days in an ICE car.

I want to deal with this issue in a realistic way. What I won't do is let my love of motorsport convince me climate change isn't real.

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

H20_doc has a Z51 package Z7 and a M2. BGM-M3comp drives an M3 too. You three are the loudest mouthed climate criers on Bimmerpost. So why should any of us give a crap about what you say. It's really a waste of electrons on top of the carbon fuel and resultant emissions you guys spew. That's the joke and why there is laughter.

I can't speak for them, but they probably have their own reasons, similar to mine. We aren't ready to be 100%, but we are willing to at least get there.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by jmg

My mistake. I did not read all the way to the section where it said it was a 2013 S. I'm guessing the 2013 S had a 60kwh battery?

That's a $443/kwh cost to replace today vs $707/kwh in 2013. That's about 37% less. $26k vs $44k adjusted for inflation.

The 90% I quoted was for the cost of manufacturing a new battery based on several articles I read. Like I mentioned in my previous post, that does not mean that's how much it would cost to replace an old battery, which includes ancillary charges for labor and parts etc. Additionally, this is a legacy part. Perhaps the newer batteries are, in fact, cheaper, but this one isn't because it's an older battery?

Regardless, you said they were going up. 37% less is a decrease in price.

I did a search on MODERN Teslas and found this article which included labor:

https://www.recurrentauto.com/resear...lacement-costs

The Tesla 3 cost $16k and the article says $180/kwh including labor. That's 75% less than the $707/kwh. Still also not an increase in price.

In 2012 a Chevy volt cost ~$40,000. In 2022 a replacement EV battery for that same Chevy volt is $30,000. Do you think they put a $30,000 battery in a $10,000 car, or does the battery cost more now than it did before?

I dug up an old article from 2012 on this very subject, they concluded the Chevy Volt battery was $12,000 in 2012. in 2022 it's $30,000, or 250% more.




A 2010 National Academy of Sciences report estimated pack costs then at $625 to $850 per kilowatt-hour.

So where does that take us? If we assume that the 2011 Chevrolet Volt's 16-kWh pack cost roughly $750 per kilowatt-hour (or about $12,000), then we can project the two rates of decline.

At 6 percent a year, the same pack in 2020 would cost just $430/kWh, or $6,500 in total. At 8 percent, it would be even cheaper, at $354/kWh or $5,200 altogether.

https://www.greencarreports.com/news...ery-costs-fall



Please note, they were predicting this battery would be less than $5000 in 2022 using their 8% figure, which clearly it is not. In 2012 they shared your optimism, and they were wrong.


There are other examples, I even referenced one where a customer was quoted more for a Polestar 2 battery than the MSRP of the entire Polestar 2 when new.

[BGM-M3COMP]

Originally Posted by jmg

Again, there are people who are more qualified in this area who don't share your opinion.




My M3 and my M4 are pretty much track only cars. I only put 12k miles on my last M3 over 3 years, even after I was splitting daily driving duties with it for the first year. I've had my M4 for 9 months and it only has 3k miles on it, mostly on weekend cruises and track days. I no longer even commute, but even when I was just running to the grocery store, I took the i3. I recently returned my leased i3 (my third leased i3 btw), and I am shopping for something as economical and fun to drive. However, it is difficult to justify it when I no longer commute. I also have an SUV, which we use for long distance road trips, something that I have always stated the EV isn't ideal for. Maybe one day. We are in the market for solar panels and battery cells, so we are doing something.

But you are right, I have no excuse. My M4 is for selfish pleasure. It is difficult to track an EV. There is one track in my area that has a charger nearby, but I only go to that track once or twice a year because of the distance. The ICE is just easier. However, to be clear, I know I'm not ready for 100% EV right now, but I don't expect anyone else to be either..

I know that not everyone can replace their old reliable 10 year old Corolla for even a used Tesla that will eventually need a new battery out of warranty. I stated in another post that leasing EVs is currently the best bet due to the cost of battery replacement. I know charging is an issue for those who live in an apartment. I'm a realist, believe it or not.

I also support the ICE ban in 2035 even though it means eventually giving up track days in an ICE car.

I want to deal with this issue in a realistic way. What I won't do is let my love of motorsport convince me climate change isn't real.




I can't speak for them, but they probably have their own reasons, similar to mine. We aren't ready to be 100%, but we are willing to at least get there.

Save your energy typing man.

These guys are clueless. Imagine being this insecure their precious toys are soon going bye bye.

This is how automotive evolution works.

[chris719]

A lot of old men shaking their fists in this thread, that's for sure. All started by a clickbait headline / link.

[G35POPPEDMYCHERRY]

nope mandatory vaccines for all and electrics

[G MONEY]

I don't get why people are so hard headed about this. Anyone here who is 30 and over will never have to be forced into an EV. So drive what you want. I would personally get an EV now but they all look like ass. The Audi and Porsche aren't atrocious but they are not good looking to my eye. Make one that actually looks like a sports car. I mean, imagine if BMW made an EV with the looks of the F-80 cars. Did 0-60 in 2 seconds flat!!!!! Had huge ass carbon brakes. I think I would be interested in that bitch. Instead, they all have this egg like rounded thing going on. Looks fucking horrible.

[dizz81]

Originally Posted by BGM-M3COMP

The only ice I’ll be keeping is my c8z.

My next Tesla will be a plaid. Can’t decide on the S or X though.

Either car will absolutely crush anything in my way. Supercars and all.

Gotta love Elon!!!

Until you need to turn or brake. Then the only thing getting crushed is your EV as it rolls over and over.

[CarsAndGuitars]

Originally Posted by G MONEY

I don't get why people are so hard headed about this. Anyone here who is 30 and over will never have to be forced into an EV. So drive what you want. I would personally get an EV now but they all look like ass. The Audi and Porsche aren't atrocious but they are not good looking to my eye. Make one that actually looks like a sports car. I mean, imagine if BMW made an EV with the looks of the F-80 cars. Did 0-60 in 2 seconds flat!!!!! Had huge ass carbon brakes. I think I would be interested in that bitch. Instead, they all have this egg like rounded thing going on. Looks fucking horrible.

The Jetsons got it right except one thing... that white would be the only base color for no additional cost