will Android replace watches?

[DocMick]

http://www.ablogtowatch.com/motorola...-for-everyone/

[tony20009]

I'd almost certainly wear that watch. I'm very appreciative of your posting that. I now know there's going to be no point in buying any more expensive watches for my kids. There is no way they will wear that + a traditional watch (I wouldn't either.) and the connectivity it provides is going to be very compelling for them. They are more connected to their tech than they were to their mother at birth.

All the best and TY again.

[mike the snake]

I think as time goes on it will definitely impact the sales of fine watches.

As the separation between income groups grows bigger and bigger, and the next generation matures, I expect the next generation to have much less interest in mechanical devices.

Less interest in restoring old cars, or boats, less interest in "low tech" works of art we call fine watches, with new technology moving so fast it's hard enough to stay up to date.

I'm middle aged and still appreciate almost all things antique or retro, and definitely love and appreciate nice watches.

The next generation won't be able to read and write cursive, or tell time from anything but digital displays.

[Medal]

Originally Posted by mike the snake

I think as time goes on it will definitely impact the sales of fine watches.

As the separation between income groups grows bigger and bigger, and the next generation matures, I expect the next generation to have much less interest in mechanical devices.

Less interest in restoring old cars, or boats, less interest in "low tech" works of art we call fine watches, with new technology moving so fast it's hard enough to stay up to date.

I'm middle aged and still appreciate almost all things antique or retro, and definitely love and appreciate nice watches.

The next generation won't be able to read and write cursive, or tell time from anything but digital displays.

I hope not and thats our job as a generation that the importance of "mechanical" items are not lost on the next generation. I'm 31 and within the last few months picked up a Omega SMP 300m ceramic and no matter how techie i get or my family gets, I have two "mechanical" items that will not be lost on my kids: fine watches and older cars, specifically my 69' Camaro RS/SS with a 572 chevy crate engine that I will build in my lifetime.

Technology in watches like this android and vehicles like our BMWs are without doubt absolutely amazing and I LOVE them, but there is something special and different that needs (should) always be appreciated in items like fine watches and older cars

[tony20009]

As much as I like mechanical watches, even I must admit that I don't see how the next generation will worse off without them.

I'd almost certainly wear that watch.

I now know there's going to be no point in buying any more expensive watches for my kids. There is no way they will wear that + a traditional watch (I wouldn't either.) and the connectivity it provides is going to be very compelling for them. They are more connected to their tech than they were to their mother at birth.

But it's not just them. Seeing that video of how the thing works has me wondering whether I really need to buy any more pricey watches for myself. I'm a luxury/style junkie before I'm a movement junkie. I would love to trade the uncertainty that comes with not easily knowing just what I'm getting when I buy a watch (any price) for the easily understood performance metrics of a "wearable" that's like a phone or PC. I'm certain the case options are limitless as are the dial imagery one could have.

I would not miss for one second all the BS that accompanies watch marketing, to say nothing of the thousands per year I have to spend on maintenance. I'm sure I don't need to enumerate any examples of the tons of frivolous things one can do with a few grand. <wink>

Some folks might think that this thing poses a conundrum. It absolutely does, but it doesn't have to either. I offer tapestries as a parallel. Long ago, there were mundane tapestries, little more than blankets or rugs, and there were highly elaborate ones too. Tapestries were appreciated for their artistic value, the luxury of the textiles from which they were made, as well as the intricacy of their creation and construction. They also had a practical purpose: to minimize drafts and help spaces retain heat. Eventually, building materials and construction methods made tapestries obsolete aside from their aesthetic value. Tapestries became works of art and so they remain even today. So at one time, tapestries were part of the HVAC system of their day. Then another technology pushed them aside.

Mechanical watches have been very much the modern day tapestry. Little but the final death knell is left before they are relegated firmly into the world of art, at which point the prices, like the price of art, will skyrocket after a brief but dramatic fall.

Watch Industry (Supply-Side)Thoughts:
As an aside, I wonder how much advance notice of this the mechanical watch industry insiders have/had? Do they already have plans for managing the transition so as to keep prices high? Clearly the big volume makers will be hardest hit. Small-batch producers like FPJ and P Dufour may actually see no meaningful impact as their production volumes are low enough that their demand curves may not suffer too much. Hard to say for sure; it would depend on whether their current volumes are small enough to remain unaffected...For my part, I'd say now is not a good time to buy major watch company stocks. Has anyone checked Swatch's and others' stock prices today or on trend over the past month?

My guess is that the Swiss will be totally blindsided by this thing. They have a track record of being very good at telling time, but lousy at reading the writing on the wall. The Asians will roll with it and get on board to make money ASAP. It wouldn't surprise me to see one of them being the first to announce having an Android watch.

Those questions notwithstanding, the bigger question is what will folks/companies who can do nothing but make watches do? Cartier will get by. Montblanc will get by. The "holy trinity," (along with many many of the brands that wish they were so holy) however, may have a rough time of it; moreover, it may be come the "Time Keeping Two," if not just one.

I think if the big names in watches know what's good for them, they'd develop a capability to produce these things, or at least elaborate cases, so they can get on the bandwagon early. For some, doing so could be the opportunity they need to get ahead of Rolex and Omega and make a name for themselves as the "posh" choice in "wearables." I suspect too there'll be opportunity for companies that can take and existing mechanical or quartz watch and convert it to an Android watch. I know I have plenty of inexpensive to moderately priced watches that I wouldn't mind converting into an Android "wearable."

Consumer (Demand-Side) Thoughts:
For consumers it's a much easier thing to deal with. One can deem oneself an art collector rather than a watch collector. There are certainly folks who collect fine tapestries and other types of bygone technologies. If one already thinks of one's watches as art rather than as fashion accessories or as function toys so to speak, the transition may not be a big deal at all. For others like me, it's a pretty big deal.

I have a watch on order right now that after seeing this I am considering cancelling, and I'm certainly going to call the seller before the week is out to discuss it. It's not that I don't like the watch; I love it; it's beautiful. But there is no way I'm keen to spend major bucks ($10K+) on a watch -- no matter how fine -- that really only has a useful life of five years or so, if that. As I said, I won't wear both and this thing looks very compelling to me; I can see how as it evolves over the next couple years it could become indispensable just as our cell phones are. I don't know what I'll do just now and I have time to think it through, but whereas yesterday that wasn't a consideration at all, today it is.

If I'm not alone in that line of thinking, that could become a real problem in the short term for many watchmakers. Even folks who've order $40K+ watches and are faced with the prospect of losing a non-refundable deposit may opt to take the loss and be done rather than spend the entire $50K+ and then do little more with the watch than mount it in a case or on a wall, particularly if they didn't fancy themselves art collectors to begin with. I doubt this development will affect the folks who buy $100K+ watches as a great many of them consider watches as pure art anyway, sometimes never really wearing them (in a functional, recurring sense, anyway). After all, how much difference is there between a Picasso on a wall and a VH-"T" in a case? It's hardly a stretch, IMO.

When it comes to non-watchies, I think this Android thing is a done deal. As for watchies, I think some will hold out for as long as they dare/can. The folks in the middle range, along with plenty at the top and bottom, are the ones whose watch buying behavior is difficult to predict, but I suspect the sway of non-watchie popular opinion will carry them to something akin to the Android Wearable. It'll just be too much of a convenience to forgo and walking around with two "watches" n will make them look/feel like loons or antediluvians, like someone wearing spats on their shoes, or a top hat with modern street wear, or carrying a pocket watch with a big chain dangling visibly from their waist or waist coat. <wink>

Just some initial thoughts. I'll admit to having flushed out all of them as I've only just found out about this Android minutes before I opened this thread.

Looking forward to reading other predictions about the impact of this thing on the watch industry -- WIS and non-WIS, makers, sellers, etc.

All the best.

[MikeRR]

Don't forget that watches are not only for telling time, we don't need watches anymore, we can read time anywhere around. They have a sentimental value and they are a status symbol for some too. And a cheap chinese Smartwatch has absolutely no sentimental value nor is it a status symbol. Unless the big watch companies don't offer theses models the "watch afficionados" won't buy them.
The random guy may buy it but no Rolex / Patek / Omega... customer will rather buy a Android watch.

[tony20009]

Originally Posted by MikeRR

Don't forget that watches are not only for telling time, we don't need watches anymore, we can read time anywhere around. They have a sentimental value and they are a status symbol for some too. And a cheap chinese Smartwatch has absolutely no sentimental value nor is it a status symbol. Unless the big watch companies don't offer theses models the "watch afficionados" won't buy them.
The random guy may buy it but no Rolex / Patek / Omega... customer will rather buy a Android watch.

I'm totally with you on that. I would rather wear a PP or any number of other nice watches. However, the features and functionality are so very compelling and there's no way I'm going to go round with a PP and an Android "wearable" on; it's going to be one or the other.

Nice as a PP is, time only vs. all the things that watch will do. PP doesn't cut enough mustard to be the one I wear. It'll be just fine as the one in my display case just as a painting is just fine on my wall. That's sort of where I see mechanical watch collecting going if this Android thing really takes off.

All the best.

[MikeRR]

All these things my iPhone can do them to, even better. I just have to reach in my pocket. No problem for me.
So I don't see any reason to wear some heartless smartwatch built in a factory by kids in China(yeah as my iPhone) instead of a nice mechanical watch. But I have to admit that I don't even wear Quarz watches, only mechanical for me.

[m630]

This will never replace a true watch because it isnt a watch. Its a wearble computer in the shape of a watch. This is a fad for the youth crowd and is the complete opposite of what a luxury time piece is all about. Pass.

[carzaddict]

its funny, because i love technology...i always have to have the lastest and greatest. But in this case im not really interested in the watch.

I bought a sony smart watch a while ago....it was cool and all but didnt really make my life easier. If i got a text or email, i can read it...cool....but i still have to use my phone to respond. so it just makes it an extra accessory that i dont really need. plus the screen is too small.

i enjoy the craftsmanship of a mechanical watch. i appreciate the work that was put into it to make it what it is. plus I think smart watches are still rather ugly looking.

What i WOULD like to do.....embed my BMW key into a watch. that would be pretty cool....but also a bad idea because then you'd be stuck wearing 1 watch all the time....and you'd have to keep a spare key with you for valet

[David70]

The main reason I wear a watch is to tell the time and date without using my phone (quick glance, especially when busy). I like one that looks good but it is secondary to the main function. I don't wear extra rings, necklaces, bracelets, etc. because there is no real function to them. As these types of watches (Android, Apple, etc.) can provide more information and look decent the market for the standard watch will shrink.

Younger generations will really have a hard time buying an expensive watch that doesn't do much when compared to the new technology, at a low price, with all of the functions they provide.

[chris s]

Originally Posted by m630

This will never replace a true watch because it isnt a watch. Its a wearble computer in the shape of a watch. This is a fad for the youth crowd and is the complete opposite of what a luxury time piece is all about. Pass.

+1...absolutely not. I wear a nice watch not only b/c it tells me the time and date, but it's an accessory which i happen to enjoy.

[MikeRR]

Originally Posted by carzaddict

What i WOULD like to do.....embed my BMW key into a watch. that would be pretty cool....but also a bad idea because then you'd be stuck wearing 1 watch all the time....and you'd have to keep a spare key with you for valet

Already exists with JLC and Aston Martin

David: Your exactly the type of customer for this watch.
But most luxury watch buyers don't have the same feeling towards watches. So I don't think it will affect sales that much.
I think the segment that will lose the most customers to the smart watches is the sub 1k $ segment.

[Craigy]

Cell phones have already "replaced" watches in that many people don't wear a watch because their cellphone tells the time. This wizardry is simply a 21st century take on the digital casio multifunction watch. Completely a fad, and just another way for them to try to sell us a second cellphone.

Why would I look at my tiny 1" screen on my wrist when I have a 5.7" screen in my pocket? Why would I wear the tiny screen on my wrist all the time, to save a few milliseconds a day pulling out my phone? Also there's no way the watch can match the processing power of the full size device.

Also how often does google or whatever tell you exactly what you want? If it doesn't get it right immediately, you're going to struggle to find what you want on a 1" screen and would have saved time by having a larger user interface. In order to maximize the value of the product, you'll have to tailor your life around the product (which, by the way, will be obsolete every year or two when the next best model comes out).

Originally Posted by m630

This will never replace a true watch because it isnt a watch. Its a wearble computer in the shape of a watch. This is a fad for the youth crowd and is the complete opposite of what a luxury time piece is all about. Pass.

Exactly.

Also don't forget the goober factor.

[///mawana]

Originally Posted by m630

This will never replace a true watch because it isnt a watch. Its a wearble computer in the shape of a watch. This is a fad for the youth crowd and is the complete opposite of what a luxury time piece is all about. Pass.

They are just entering the market, they are not trying to upset tradition because I suspect they aren't sure how the 'wearables' will be received considering one can only 'wear' one item on a wrist. Otherwise, this is the future gentlemen and if the younger generation responds, timepieces will likely face the same bleak outlook as our beloved manuals.

[finaloption]

If mechanical watches survived the Quartz crisis (when people actually needed watches).. I think that they'll be able to survive the smart watch fad as well.

[David70]

As someone that travels a lot and spends a lot of time in meetings, I find that I am pulling my phone out of my pocket to look at it maybe 30-50 times a day to see who is contacting me (e-mail, texts, and calls). If I am doing this in the airport with bags it is a big irritation but anytime I walking I would rather not do it. About half of these phone calls and e-mails could be dealt with later and I am sorry I pulled the phone out. If I could look at my watch and it told me who was contacting me I could avoid pulling my phone out of my pocket 15-25 times a day. With enough functional benefits they will sell a lot of them and not only to the low and mid market consumer.

Calculator and digital watches really don't do anything special that we need them for except for me when exercising so the function isn't worth the fashion issue (and I have a digital watches which I use for this reason). Come up with enough functional benefits and they will sell to the whole market. I also won't be an earlier adopter because of the "geek factor" and how they look but if the market is there they will improve on the look and function.

[carzaddict]

Originally Posted by MikeRR

Already exists with JLC and Aston Martin

yeah i knew that, i wanted to replicate it with my car

Originally Posted by finaloption

If mechanical watches survived the Quartz crisis (when people actually needed watches).. I think that they'll be able to survive the smart watch fad as well.

some people buy watches as investments. some people buy watches as a status thing, theres many reasons people buy watches OTHER than to tell time. there will always be a need for mechanical watches.

to put things in perspective, automated clutch transmissions vs manual. a lot of people love the automated clutch........yet some people still prefer the old manual.

one major reason I wont use a smartwatch is because of the constant data connection with my phone. I use my phone a lot as it is, the constant connection will kill my battery. i dont need it to die any faster

[NEFARIOUS]

Why not both? Like Google can partner with IWC, Vacheron Constantin or even Tissot (which already has touch screen) or something and have the hands overlay the LCD somehow and keep the design cues, like leave the watch part mechanical or semi-mechanical.

However, even though I'm all about technology, it's one or the other in my book.

[m630]

Why would VC need to is the point? The are already at the pinnacle! Never.

[MikeRR]

There was a story this week that Hublot was approched by apple for a cooperation on a smart watch but Hublot (Biver) was absolutely not interested in it.
Even if the big watch brands jump on the train, these watches will be battery powered...

[WRichieX]

I used to never wear watches but I'm a huge techy. So when watches were offered with notifications I jumped all over it. I started with Metawatch when it was first released in developer mode. Thought it was cool as hell but laggy. Jumped on the Pebble on kickstarter and really liked it. So naturally I jumped on the galaxy gear. This is what I wear on a daily basis. I know there's a lot of negative feedback on the gear but I absolutely love it. As Android wear OS was intro'd this week and moto360, I think this will take smart watches to another level and definitely anticipating getting one.

With that said, after I started wearing smartwatches, I have developed an appreciation for "nice" watches. So started doing some research. It seems that all the ones I really want are at least thousands of dollars. Which I just can't seem to justify when it only tells time and my gear does that and much more. But I'm slowly convincing myself to get one. haha.