Stock market tips and experiences

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

You do understand buy/sell ratings are generally issued by firms that have a vested interest in a stock's success right? They're not impartial. Look at Yahoo Finance, every stock (no matter how shitty) seems to be buy/hold with a price target on average at least 25% higher than the market price at any given time.

I'm an Elon Musk supporter, and though he has a loud mouth and shoots himself in the foot sometimes, he has produced the best EV out there at the moment and right now EV is synonymous with TSLA, but that is fast changing. Once GM, Ford, Toyota, BMW, all catch up and create their own improvements on the EV technology, they will capture more and more of TSLA's market share. For instance, BMW luxury will capture that segment of the market, Toyota will capture more of the lower income buyer. Also, Musk is constantly fighting up stream against Ford and GM, who have explicit favor from the government.

What about future EV market entrants? Imagine if the AAPL car comes to fruition. What is TSLA's differentiator and strategy against those things? How do these things translate into a higher market price?

Then, and perhaps more asinine is TSLA's assent to $1,200/share. As an investor in this stock, could you please explain what justified a 10x price jump since March of 2020? Yes, they made some good profits. But 10x? Even the current price is 6x what it was in 2020. Why? I say speculation.

This is obviously not a technical analysis, just common sense observations, but enough for me to ask, is this the hill I want to climb because some analyst who needs this stock to go up says it will? $2000? Why not $10,000? There are no consequences for these types of predictions.

This is just like your investment in ETH. Why coins? Why of the 10,000 coins that one specifically? Do you use it? Do you know anyone who does? If not, why not invest in something less speculative?

It's this kind of inside the box thinking that have some investors miss the boat on Tesla, apple, and many other stocks. The "it already ran up and its best days are behind it so I will avoid it" kind of thinking. I bought Tesla when it was 400 something dollars and rode it up to 1200 at peak. It has fallen from those graces like many stocks, but it is one of my best performing recent buys. Why did I even bother when Tesla already had a big run and the new challengers (lucid etc) were on the rise and the old challengers were on the rise (ford, bmw)? Because Tesla continues to stay ahead in software and other tech aspects, including self-driving. It also remains imo the most desirable, attractive electric car maker (model S especially). Their margins are impressive for an EV maker. US and world investment/subsidization in EVs and supporting infrastructure is growing. I can't guarantee 2000 a share (especially since I don't know the time horizon that is desired for) but I remain convicted on their stock despite competition.

[LuvMyE92]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I've kept buying shares since mid 2020. RBC upgraded it and so did UBS. I can't sell now

Sure you can.

Seriously, there's nothing wrong with gambling a little bit on Tesla, but as Chick wrote, you shouldn't have all of your peanuts in one bowl. Or something like that.

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

It's this kind of inside the box thinking that have some investors miss the boat on Tesla, apple, and many other stocks. The "it already ran up and its best days are behind it so I will avoid it" kind of thinking. I bought Tesla when it was 400 something dollars and rode it up to 1200 at peak. It has fallen from those graces like many stocks, but it is one of my best performing recent buys. Why did I even bother when Tesla already had a big run and the new challengers (lucid etc) were on the rise and the old challengers were on the rise (ford, bmw)? Because Tesla continues to stay ahead in software and other tech aspects, including self-driving. It also remains imo the most desirable, attractive electric car maker (model S especially). Their margins are impressive for an EV maker. US and world investment/subsidization in EVs and supporting infrastructure is growing. I can't guarantee 2000 a share (especially since I don't know the time horizon that is desired for) but I remain convicted on their stock despite competition.

Sorry, but what you consider inside the box thinking, others consider pragmatism and risk analysis. Notice I've not said anywhere Tesla will not reach $2000, but I think it's a far more speculative play than many companies out there. As I've conceded, Tesla is still the leader, however the EV market is still in its infancy relatively speaking, a global auto industry has been sleeping on this until a year or two ago. Now they're mandated into it. No matter which way you cut it, competition will increase exponentially, and I believe TSLA's market and competitive advantage will erode in time which will reflect on its market price. None of what I said is inside the box thinking it's a process for quantifying the risk I'm willing to take. I neither make off the wall unsubstantiated statements like "I think this will hit $2,000 a share" nor do I say no I will not invest in this stock because Elon sucks or some similar nonsense.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

Sorry, but what you consider inside the box thinking, others consider pragmatism and risk analysis. Notice I've not said anywhere Tesla will not reach $2000, but I think it's a far more speculative play than many companies out there. As I've conceded, Tesla is still the leader, however the EV market is still in its infancy relatively speaking, a global auto industry has been sleeping on this until a year or two ago. Now they're mandated into it. No matter which way you cut it, competition will increase exponentially, and I believe TSLA's market and competitive advantage will erode in time which will reflect on its market price. None of what I said is inside the box thinking it's a process for quantifying the risk I'm willing to take. I neither make off the wall unsubstantiated statements like "I think this will hit $2,000 a share" nor do I say no I will not invest in this stock because Elon sucks or some similar nonsense.

Tesla is the new Apple - everyone who buys one gets another one. They've mastered the branding. I seriously doubt mainstream manufacturers are going to take their market share. It's a cult following

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Tesla is the new Apple - everyone who buys one gets another one. They've mastered the branding. I seriously doubt mainstream manufacturers are going to take their market share. It's a cult following

You can look at it that way sure, to your point, I definitely won't be switching from the iPhone, no matter how much better performing Samsung phones are. The issue is a phone is more of a discretionary expense, a car an essential expense and the second most expensive, next to a home. You can bet most consumers will be much more discerning about value for money, reliability, ergonomics and everything in between. The ones who will stay with TSLA will more likely be the niche buyers and every brand has those.

You bring up AAPL in your example above so I'll reference it to make a point. I test drove a Model Y 3 months ago and one of the first questions was, does this have wireless Apple CarPlay or do I have to use the TSLA software? Answer, use TSLA software. Can I overcome no CarPlay? Sure. Is it a big deal not having it in my DD? Yes, but the AAPL is ubiquitous and I'm sure many non-niche buyers will say no thanks. On the way home, I saw the electric Mustang and immediately thought, wow this styling is so much better than a Tesla. Guess what? There were Ford loyalists before they became TSLA loyalists because no EV Ford was available, guess where they are going now? Same will be true for Mercedes, BMW, Toyota. The other thing is, TSLA's design has barely evolved, time for something different perhaps?

All this to say, although I cannot say with certainty, I think TSLA's market will erode and it will not be a good thing for their share price.

[ASAP]

75 BPS... this will be interesting

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

75 BPS... this will be interesting

The Fed signaled that on Monday (note that several banks “predicted” it within one hour of each other), to avoid surprising the markets. This has been Fed practice for a while.

There are some signs that inflation is close to a peak, or may have peaked (numbers lag), and the Fed indicated likely positive growth for Q2 and 2H, in an attempt to allay recession fears. If the former is true, the rate hike plus QT risk pushing the economy into recession. If the latter is true, more rate increases will continue to be needed, along with QT, to try to tame inflation. IMO monetary policy will have limited impact since the source of this inflation is largely supply constraints (although the $2T fiscal stimulus last year didn’t help). Those constraints have more to do with global markets and policy decisions than either monetary or fiscal policy. So I’m leaning toward protracted stagflation.

[Tyga11]

Looks like Cathie Wood was right and we hit the bottom. Back to a bull market!

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

Sorry, but what you consider inside the box thinking, others consider pragmatism and risk analysis. Notice I've not said anywhere Tesla will not reach $2000, but I think it's a far more speculative play than many companies out there. As I've conceded, Tesla is still the leader, however the EV market is still in its infancy relatively speaking, a global auto industry has been sleeping on this until a year or two ago. Now they're mandated into it. No matter which way you cut it, competition will increase exponentially, and I believe TSLA's market and competitive advantage will erode in time which will reflect on its market price. None of what I said is inside the box thinking it's a process for quantifying the risk I'm willing to take. I neither make off the wall unsubstantiated statements like "I think this will hit $2,000 a share" nor do I say no I will not invest in this stock because Elon sucks or some similar nonsense.

"No matter which way you cut it, competition will increase exponentially, and I believe TSLA's market and competitive advantage will erode in time which will reflect on its market price."

Assumptions and inside the box thinking. Counterpoint: Tesla's competitors may not succeed in any of their product offerings. Their competitive advantage may persist and its stock price may increase. The market for electric cars may expand, and thus Tesla's growth continues. Further they could land self-driving cars or a taxi fleet, or its humanoid robot, which could be windfalls. Or one of the many other things Tesla could do of which we have no idea.

Neither of us knows how this will go, and someone's unique financial situation and financial horizon have to be factored in

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

"No matter which way you cut it, competition will increase exponentially, and I believe TSLA's market and competitive advantage will erode in time which will reflect on its market price."

Assumptions and inside the box thinking. Counterpoint: Tesla's competitors may not succeed in any of their product offerings. Their competitive advantage may persist and its stock price may increase. The market for electric cars may expand, and thus Tesla's growth continues. Further they could land self-driving cars or a taxi fleet, or its humanoid robot, which could be windfalls. Or one of the many other things Tesla could do of which we have no idea.

Neither of us knows how this will go, and someone's unique financial situation and financial horizon have to be factored in

I had an S&P 500 Index fund for a couple of years. Not for me. I prefer investing in companies I believe strongly in.

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

"No matter which way you cut it, competition will increase exponentially, and I believe TSLA's market and competitive advantage will erode in time which will reflect on its market price."

Assumptions and inside the box thinking. Counterpoint: Tesla's competitors may not succeed in any of their product offerings. Their competitive advantage may persist and its stock price may increase. The market for electric cars may expand, and thus Tesla's growth continues. Further they could land self-driving cars or a taxi fleet, or its humanoid robot, which could be windfalls. Or one of the many other things Tesla could do of which we have no idea.

Neither of us knows how this will go, and someone's unique financial situation and financial horizon have to be factored in

Assumptions and inside the box thinking. Goes both ways my friend, your opinions are no more valid than mine which really begs the question, of what value is that statement? I digress.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I had an S&P 500 Index fund for a couple of years. Not for me. I prefer investing in companies I believe strongly in.

You'll likely not make much money over the long term then. If you want to be successful in the market then you'll need to separate yourself from idealism. S&P 500 index funds are incredibly hard to beat over the long term. I'm only speaking from direct experience, data, and experts that are looking out for investors.

[XutvJet]

Many forget that Tesla is branded as a energy company. Elon has said for years that he knows that once major automakers start offering viable and desirable EVs, then Tesla will suffer. This why Tesla has its hands in far more things than just the EVs they're known for.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

You'll likely not make much money over the long term then. If you want to be successful in the market then you'll need to separate yourself from idealism. S&P 500 index funds are incredibly hard to beat over the long term. I'm only speaking from direct experience, data, and experts that are looking out for investors.

If that were true then no one would buy stocks they would only buy index funds. Last I checked, they don't. If you want high beta (or part of your portfolio to be high beta), you venture outside of index funds. It's not for everyone. If you are conservative or hate seeing red, high beta is probably not for you. It's also not for no one. Some people trying to protect people from themselves and their preferences. The best way to learn investing is by trial and error. Obviously don't bet the farm on a moonshot.

And buying stock in companies you like/believe in is not just blind idealism. It can work because if you like/believe in something there's a good chance other people do too, which translates to demand, revenue, profit, returns. I have a grouping of stocks that I own strictly because I like them.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

If that were true then no one would buy stocks they would only buy index funds. Last I checked, they don't. If you want high beta (or part of your portfolio to be high beta), you venture outside of index funds. It's not for everyone. If you are conservative or hate seeing red, high beta is probably not for you. It's also not for no one. Some people trying to protect people from themselves and their preferences. The best way to learn investing is by trial and error. Obviously don't bet the farm on a moonshot.

And buying stock in companies you like/believe in is not just blind idealism. It can work because if you like/believe in something there's a good chance other people do too, which translates to demand, revenue, profit, returns. I have a grouping of stocks that I own strictly because I like them.

Yeah I don’t own anything speculative. I have all blue chip companies. I’m not naive enough to think I’m going to beat the market but I get more pleasure doing my own investing. May sound crazy but I’ve been doing it since 2020

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Looks like Cathie Wood was right and we hit the bottom. Back to a bull market!

Did I miss the "/s" at the end of this? SARK is up 7% today, and 90+% this year. Not that she can't make a comeback, but it won't happen with that strategy until the Fed stops raising rates.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by chassis

Thanks. So you are 50% cash, 30% equities (stocks and funds) and 20% bonds, is that close?

You are half in the market, half out. Less skin in the game than an 80/20 or 90/10 investor. Would you agree?

That's about right. At the moment, anyway. I'm not going to stay in cash forever, but right now there's no good reason to buy much of anything other than puts to protect existing positions I don't want to sell out of for tax reasons.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Did I miss the "/s" at the end of this? SARK is up 7% today, and 90+% this year. Not that she can't make a comeback, but it won't happen with that strategy until the Fed stops raising rates.

The market is being manipulated. Why were we up yesterday and down today?

[JP10]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

The market is being manipulated. Why were we up yesterday and down today?

Why did you believe the market would increase when the feds increased by .75 yesterday? It was just a façade.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by JP10

Why did you believe the market would increase when the feds increased by .75 yesterday? It was just a façade.

True, true. Today may be the bottom

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

True, true. Today may be the bottom

Not until the markets get a sniff of the Fed backing off of their rate hikes, I'm afraid. That could be quite some time. Another 10-20% down is certainly possible and has happened before. And by "before", I don't mean in the last 13 years. Before that.

One last time - DO NOT fight the Fed.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Not until the markets get a sniff of the Fed backing off of their rate hikes, I'm afraid. That could be quite some time. Another 10-20% down is certainly possible and has happened before. And by "before", I don't mean in the last 13 years. Before that.

One last time - DO NOT fight the Fed.

Cathie said yesterday we were approaching the bottom...not saying she's the end all be all but I think it's possible. Nasdaq always hits the bottom before the DOW anyways.

I'm optimistic. I wish I had cash I'd be buying.