Spiegel.de: Will Tesla and Google Kill the German Car?

[F32Fleet]

https://www.spiegel.de/international...a-1293415.html


An interesting read which highlights what is in store for the German auto industry as a whole.

[hellrotm]

Being "late to the game" the article states...well to be honest the game hasn't even started.

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by hellrotm

Being "late to the game" the article states...well to be honest the game hasn't even started.

Isn't the Model 3 outselling the combined Germans? I can't imagine the Model Y isn't going to do the same to the X3, Q5 and GLC. Take those away from the Germans, or at least significantly reduce their volume and the game is going to definitely be on.

[yco]

No..

[hellrotm]

Originally Posted by Red Bread

Isn't the Model 3 outselling the combined Germans? I can't imagine the Model Y isn't going to do the same to the X3, Q5 and GLC. Take those away from the Germans, or at least significantly reduce their volume and the game is going to definitely be on.

Hasn’t even started. End of 2018 electric vehicles had a market share of 2.1%. We will see what it is at the end of this year, certainly will have gone up. Nothing will matter until infrastructure can handle a mass adoption, at the moment we are many many years away from that. Plenty of time for competition to grow.

Side note, anyone find market share for BEV’s only. Hybrids don’t count in my book. What percentage of that 2.1 is BEV?

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by hellrotm

Hasn't even started. End of 2018 electric vehicles had a market share of 2.1%. We will see what it is at the end of this year, certainly will have gone up. Nothing will matter until infrastructure can handle a mass adoption, at the moment we are many many years away from that. Plenty of time for competition to grow.

Side note, anyone find market share for BEV's only. Hybrids don't count in my book. What percentage of that 2.1 is BEV?

I've heard and witnessed this sort of blindness before. The Japanese can't build luxury cars. That attitude didn't work well for the Germans. Hell, my dad has a 2002 or so MB with a cassette deck. Could you even buy tapes in 2002?

So far the EV game from the Germans is weak as all hell. VW promises the first truly viable one with the ID3 but we aren't getting it here. This will end badly for the Germans

[hellrotm]

Originally Posted by Red Bread

I've heard and witnessed this sort of blindness before. The Japanese can't build luxury cars. That attitude didn't work well for the Germans. Hell, my dad has a 2002 or so MB with a cassette deck. Could you even buy tapes in 2002?

So far the EV game from the Germans is weak as all hell. VW promises the first truly viable one with the ID3 but we aren't getting it here. This will end badly for the Germans

No blindness here. Actually test drove an Model 3 last week for a possible daily. I plan on switching to having a dedicated track car, so why not make the daily a possible electric. But the chargers at my office are sh*t.

Keyword or words in your post...”So far”. Germans, Japan, Korea, US automakers will make their move. I have suspicion they aren’t worried about the 2.1% early adopters. The author of this article can revisit this topic when BEV’s reach over 50% market share, decades from now. I no doubts it will not read the same.

[allinon72]

The germans are well on their way to killing the german car. Instead of obsessing over the chinese market and chasing EVs, they should get back to their roots.

[///M Power-Belgium]

The Taycan is German

[Red Bread]

Originally Posted by hellrotm

No blindness here. Actually test drove an Model 3 last week for a possible daily. I plan on switching to having a dedicated track car, so why not make the daily a possible electric. But the chargers at my office are sh*t.

Keyword or words in your post...”So far”. Germans, Japan, Korea, US automakers will make their move. I have suspicion they aren’t worried about the 2.1% early adopters. The author of this article can revisit this topic when BEV’s reach over 50% market share, decades from now. I no doubts it will not read the same.

You've lost me. 50% of the market share? They're already outselling the combined German sedan models. So okay, now we're there.

This isn't about total market, it's about the near luxury sedan, which EV's are presently dominating as most buyers move to CUV's. But Tesla is coming for that market too. There's only so far up market that the Germans can do, ceding the low end is a terrific move.

[heavyD^2]

It would be suicide for large car companies to divert all their resources into a market segment that only amounts to 2% of vehicles sold. I have a feeling all the big Japanese companies and Germans aren't losing a lot of sleep in regards to any success Tesla is having in what is currently a niche market. Large corporations are all about quarterly and annual earnings not sacrificing today to ensure they are making a killing in 2040. I am fairly positive German automakers will be around in 20 years. Tesla not so much.

[allinon72]

Originally Posted by heavyD^2

It would be suicide for large car companies to divert all their resources into a market segment that only amounts to 2% of vehicles sold.

You would think, but that's exactly what's happening. Nearly every auto manufacturer is pouring billions into EV development. They must be working off data that isn't available to the public, because it seems the decision has been made for humanity that EVs are the future, regardless of customer demand or potential drawbacks.

[Gamb1t]

There's almost no profit to be made in EVs. That is the reason why traditional mfgs are taking their time to get on it. Tesla has just started turning some profit 4th quarter 2018 for the very first time. It's been making cars since selling the Model S in 2012. Earlier if you count the Roadster. I think they reported losses again this year.
The battery and infrastructure is not even close to maturity.
Combining all these.... I can understand why mfgs are not jumping in quickly especially there are still good profits to be had for ICE products. Also what happens when the government subsidies dry up for EVs? Here's an article.

I suggest folks to take a step back from the media or twittersphere and look at some facts.

I will no doubt buy an EV one day. But that day is still far away.

[..Rush..]

Nope.

Tesla is not a "driver's car"

Any car can have stoplight acceleration.

It's all about the total driving experience.

[overcoil]

Originally Posted by hellrotm

Hasn’t even started. End of 2018 electric vehicles had a market share of 2.1%. We will see what it is at the end of this year, certainly will have gone up. Nothing will matter until infrastructure can handle a mass adoption, at the moment we are many many years away from that. Plenty of time for competition to grow.

Side note, anyone find market share for BEV’s only. Hybrids don’t count in my book. What percentage of that 2.1 is BEV?

check out this U.S. stat, electric vehicles outsold manual transmission cars

https://jalopnik.com/electric-cars-a...-am-1839721931

[allinon72]

Originally Posted by ScottSinger

check out this U.S. stat, electric vehicles outsold manual transmission cars

https://jalopnik.com/electric-cars-a...-am-1839721931

To the surprise of no one...that doesn't tell us anything except manuals are dead.

[overcoil]

Originally Posted by allinon72

To the surprise of no one...that doesn't tell us anything except manuals are dead.

There's always hope.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/5/2...hium-sema-2019

[Meeni]

Originally Posted by hellrotm

why not make the daily a possible electric. But the chargers at my office are sh*t.

Just charge at home. Beside the trans-america travel you'll do once in your lifetime, you should never need a fast charger.

reach over 50% market share, decades from now. I no doubts it will not read the same.

If the germans wake up at that point, they are dead and irrelevant already. The Prius is not even that great, and it still outsells a lot of better hybrid options just on first mover advantage and name recognition. That's just not good business trying to catch-up in an already mature marketplace.

Originally Posted by allinon72

Nearly every auto manufacturer is pouring billions into EV development. They must be working off data that isn't available to the public

It's completely available to the public. Just simple projection on current trends show that the future is electric, because the only current advantages of ICE are eroding quick. ICE is a mature tech with very little growth left in it. Electric is a new tech that is still in the fast improvement curve. In 10 years from now everything we currently dislike about electrics will be resolved
1. range is already partially resolved, improving fast, it's like Moores' law for batteries nowadays.
2. power and driving pleasure is completely resolved, just get the right model. The days of the weird Iseta looking electric cars are gone. Even the dumb futuristic space-age interior trend is receding.
3. charging time is not resolved yet (on production models), but improving fast and lots of growth potential. Concept cars and demonstrators already have fast charging that would put the gas station to shame when one includes the time spent driving to said gas station.
4. cost currently remains a problem, but will get lower over time. At this point, cost of ownership is already positive, even without tax incentive, but the upfront cost is clearly
stopping a lot of sales (hence the small market share at this point). Should get better and better in a very short time frame. When the electric cars are competitive in upfront cost, run-of-the mill ICE econobox are game over, as the segment is super sensitive to the money equation.
5. Weight is a problem without a foreseable solution at this point, but not clear how much it really matters given that you can still get strong acceleration (electric torque), good fuel efficiency (regenerative braking), and good dynamic handling (low center of gravity).

With these trends clearly visible by simple extrapolation of current tech and business practices, a company that would not divert most of its R&D toward being part of that revolution would be dead stupid, and probably out of business in 10 years.


I love my growling I6 as much as everyone else around here, I bought the damn thing with my hard earned cash instead of getting a Toyota Carmy of some sort that would make more financial sense, for the only reason that the I6 is more fun. But these are just facts and trends that cannot be ignored, because the money will speak, and electric cars will be cheaper, better, and dare I say, probably more interesting/fun products in all aspects (except auditory? Even then there is some value in gliding at high speed in quiet silence). When consumers notice, it will be a blood bath for those manufacturers that are not prepared.


There's one thing I didn't like about the cited article, is that they mangle autonomous driving and electric vehicles. These two things are orthogonal and we could very well have one without the other. It is not that different having autonomous electric or ICE cars, and electric cars can be driven without any special need for automation. It is also very plausible that the companies providing autonomous driving are not the same as the companies developing the electric drivetrain/chassis. Bosh and Valeo are providing most of the electronic for current german/french cars, they are not household names. Could very well be the same for autonomous software being just provided by an 'anonymous' supplier to multiple manufacturers, that could be substituted at the whim of corporate contracts, just like some of our e90 comes with transmissions from ZF or GM, and very few people notice or care.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by allinon72

You would think, but that's exactly what's happening. Nearly every auto manufacturer is pouring billions into EV development. They must be working off data that isn't available to the public, because it seems the decision has been made for humanity that EVs are the future, regardless of customer demand or potential drawbacks.

This is exactly true.

Most people buying cars live in cities and commute to work. It's a numbers game. That's also why it's suicide for any of them to make manual transmissions anymore. Just go to any major city and look at how many cars are driving around on the highways. That's where all of your car buyers are. Sure, there are some weekend-enthusiasts that want to carve up some mountain roads...but the vast majority are these people in the cities.

[hellrotm]

Originally Posted by Meeni

If the germans wake up at that point, they are dead and irrelevant already.

Yeah, that isn't what I meant by the comment. Not they are waiting for 50% market share to make their move. What I meant was when the time comes when BEV's make up over 50% market share, if this article was written again at that time. The article will read completely different, the market will be flooded with BEV options(not just in the luxury segment). We could be decades away from 50+% market share, plenty of time for the big brands to flood the market with BEV options. 2.1% market share includes hybrids, BEV's are percentage of the 2.1%. Electric car game just started, everyone buying now are early adopters. Solid state batteries will make BEV's more relevant, even that tech is said to be 10 years off for the auto industry.

Originally Posted by Meeni

It's completely available to the public. Just simple projection on current trends show that the future is electric, because the only current advantages of ICE are eroding quick. ICE is a mature tech with very little growth left in it. Electric is a new tech that is still in the fast improvement curve. In 10 years from now everything we currently dislike about electrics will be resolved.

Solid state batteries. That tech will make all early BEV's irrelevant. Lighter, smaller, faster charging, longer range.

[F32Fleet]

Originally Posted by allinon72

You would think, but that's exactly what's happening. Nearly every auto manufacturer is pouring billions into EV development. They must be working off data that isn't available to the public, because it seems the decision has been made for humanity that EVs are the future, regardless of customer demand or potential drawbacks.

EV is 95% driven by government policy from EU, China, US.

EU accelerated their policy due to VW Dieselgate.

China is trying to clean up its air so is essentially banning ICE for passenger vehicles.

US started a little sooner by regulating CO2 as an emission.

Higher emissions requirements is just a means to and ends. The ends being an essential ban of the ICE.

[phantomF80]

Originally Posted by F32Fleet

EV is 95% driven by government policy from EU, China, US.

EU accelerated their policy due to VW Dieselgate.

China is trying to clean up its air so is essentially banning ICE for passenger vehicles.

US started a little sooner by regulating CO2 as an emission.

Higher emissions requirements is just a means to and ends. The ends being an essential ban of the ICE.

The US fed and state incentives help. However, having had 4 EV's so far (2 i3's and 2 Tesla) and compared them to the fun ICE's I have owned (F80, 987 Cayman S, MK VII GTI, E46 ZHP), I would say that I would pick a good EV over a good ICE for my go-to car. It's true that EV lacks the musics and mechanical feeling of a good engine and transmission. However, there is no car I have driven that come close to the response and acceleration of EV's I have owned, not even the 360 Modena or the 997 CS4. And the fact that I can wake up everyday with a 100% charge to the car means I start every day with a full range.

Unless something drastic happens to the automotive world, I see that people will start to adapt EV in big waves as economic of scale kicked in. And I want a good German EV. The E-Tron is a good start, whereas the iX3 is absolute awful if the specs shown around the internet is true.