Supply Chain Issues Easing? Maybe Not...

[ryan stewart]

Yeah, the optimist in me wants to think leadership will catch on quickly in the "finding out" phase but, historically, that has not been the case. Instead everyone will just blame the commoners, say its because millennials don't want to work, etc.

Its never the fault of the guys upstairs...

[Alfisti]

Originally Posted by ryan stewart

The fall is going to be fun. Not only is Ukraine going to be wrecked from the war but western Kansas is in such a bad drought probably looking at a 23-30% drop in output of wheat. With russia, ukraine and kansas impacted wheat, which is in so many things, is going to be expen$ive. Might be time to go gluten free.

Australians are rubbing their hands. They have had 2 years of INSANE rainfall, even inland where rivers and lakes are often bone dry. The wheat harvest the last two years has been absolutely EPIC, just insane amounts, so they are exporting and making squllions.

[Chick Webb]

Didn't really expect this aspect of the West Coast port situation to come up, but it's another example of how f*kd up California is if you want to conduct business.

Shippers are avoiding the Port of Oakland as trucker protests over gig worker law stop flow of trade

Combine that with the still-unresolved ILWU contract, what's going on in Europe and it's pretty clear supply chain issues are going to persist for a while.

[Ginster6]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Didn't really expect this aspect of the West Coast port situation to come up, but it's another example of how f*kd up California is if you want to conduct business.

Shippers are avoiding the Port of Oakland as trucker protests over gig worker law stop flow of trade

Combine that with the still-unresolved ILWU contract, what's going on in Europe and it's pretty clear supply chain issues are going to persist for a while.

Tell Me about.... I am pissed over this AB5... I own a logistics Trucking company in Oakland. None of my driver has work for almost 2 weeks. Not because they are protesting. It because those protester has shut down the all port terminals.

[cmyx6go]

Originally Posted by Ginster6

Tell Me about.... I am pissed over this AB5... I own a logistics Trucking company in Oakland. None of my driver has work for almost 2 weeks. Not because they are protesting. It because those protester has shut down the all port terminals.

This classification owner operator vs employee is nonsense. I don’t do pier work but it affects me too.

[CasualDriver]

My IT department is waiting on 300 network switches from an OEM, for over a year. The OEM cannot promise any ETA, and other vendors rose the price by 15-20% while not able to provide a delivery date.

Multiple projects are delayed because the OEMs themselves cannot procure enough to validate the products for pre-production sampling.

Relatively non specialized hardware like laptops are taking 4 to 6 months to fulfill.

I really expect the chip shortages to continue well into 2023. Most goods will be indirectly affected, since many machinery making the goods will require computer chips.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Didn't really expect this aspect of the West Coast port situation to come up, but it's another example of how f*kd up California is if you want to conduct business.

Shippers are avoiding the Port of Oakland as trucker protests over gig worker law stop flow of trade

Combine that with the still-unresolved ILWU contract, what's going on in Europe and it's pretty clear supply chain issues are going to persist for a while.

Generally things are getting better. Problems will always exist and be reported in headlines and on internet fora.

Oakland and Long Beach are losing business to other ports. They are hurting themselves (workers and management) by their ineptitude.

Many other options exist and are being exploited to avoid the custodians who are mismanaging the resources.

[allinon72]

Electrical components for commercial controls - input/output cards, PLC ethernet modules, relays and relay bases, VFDs, etc. are becoming increasingly difficult to get. My suppliers have been buying directly from the grey market in China and even that is drying up. 12+ month lead times on some very ordinary/common items. Large, global corps are getting all the stock that's available (not much for them either). You wouldn't believe that ordinary small plastic items like standoffs, used in panel building, for example, are just made by some random village in China. No one else makes these very simple items and they simply aren't available. Slack in the market will eventually tighten but it takes a while.

Same with commercial electrical supplies like breakers and breaker panels. Off the shelf stuff 3 years ago, now with a 50+ month lead time. Factories with -2500 inventory levels. Crazy stuff.

EVERYONE is building right now and there is NO stock. Companies that aren't ordering now for the end of 2023-2024 are simply going to be out of luck.

[F30lolz]

Anyone have experience dealing with this rep? Need brake pads for my f36 but told me they aren’t experiencing any shortages. Might just pull the trigger. Thoughts?

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by F30lolz

Anyone have experience dealing with this rep? Need brake pads for my f36 but told me they aren’t experiencing any shortages. Might just pull the trigger. Thoughts?

Don't let him try on your jacket.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by allinon72

Electrical components for commercial controls - input/output cards, PLC ethernet modules, relays and relay bases, VFDs, etc. are becoming increasingly difficult to get. My suppliers have been buying directly from the grey market in China and even that is drying up. 12+ month lead times on some very ordinary/common items. Large, global corps are getting all the stock that's available (not much for them either). You wouldn't believe that ordinary small plastic items like standoffs, used in panel building, for example, are just made by some random village in China. No one else makes these very simple items and they simply aren't available. Slack in the market will eventually tighten but it takes a while.

Same with commercial electrical supplies like breakers and breaker panels. Off the shelf stuff 3 years ago, now with a 50+ month lead time. Factories with -2500 inventory levels. Crazy stuff.

EVERYONE is building right now and there is NO stock. Companies that aren't ordering now for the end of 2023-2024 are simply going to be out of luck.

yeah electrical gear is crazy right now.

we are currently telling owners to cut out the electrical portion of projects and get that design done as quick as possible so the electrical gear can be ordered so it might show up on time.

im currently waiting on a few VFDs, some PLC components and other miscellaneous stuff that was ordered last summer to finish up one of my projects.

[SpeedBuggy]

In the Mechanical and Electrical PT Business and our VFD , Motor, Gearbox, Bearings suppliers are struggling. Depending on product, anywhere from 18, 20 weeks to 30 week delivery being quoted. Used to be able to pull from inventory or at the worst a couple of weeks delivery. Big name suppliers seem to have it bad, have been forced to use other small name manufacturers for substitute products but we are finding they have inventory available.

Also, a lot of companies buying others which are competitors and consolidating product. Number of suppliers that we had to supply motors, bearings and gearboxes in certain market segments especially are becoming far and few between.

[Ginster6]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

yeah electrical gear is crazy right now.

we are currently telling owners to cut out the electrical portion of projects and get that design done as quick as possible so the electrical gear can be ordered so it might show up on time.

im currently waiting on a few VFDs, some PLC components and other miscellaneous stuff that was ordered last summer to finish up one of my projects.

Funny you say.. I am also the owner of an electrical supply house . and all new Electrical Service gear is avg 10-12 month lead time. after they get approval from PG&E utilities.

It is absolutely crazy. I had a client that was willing to pay me 10 times the cost of his gear. for an 4-5 month express time.
The manufacture refused it...

[zx10guy]

Update on my previous post concerning lead times of 6 months for product shipping. It's now one year. Yes, you read that right. One year for many networking gear that is critical for refreshing and expansion of existing networks. Many in crucial mission critical applications.

Maybe people will re-evaluate this just in time model along side of where things get manufactured.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by Ginster6

Funny you say.. I am also the owner of an electrical supply house . and all new Electrical Service gear is avg 10-12 month lead time. after they get approval from PG&E utilities.

It is absolutely crazy. I had a client that was willing to pay me 10 times the cost of his gear. for an 4-5 month express time.
The manufacture refused it...

yeah i would gladly pay whatever it takes to get the stuff here now. just isnt possible.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by zx10guy

Maybe people will re-evaluate this just in time model along side of where things get manufactured.

This is the primary problem plus China holding on it's unrealistic zero COVID protocol, at least until Xi gets himself re-elected in the fall and then it will be like COVID is no longer an issue for that country. Too bad for him though as the private equity and industrial clients I work with are giving the middle finger to China and moving out. The country has become unreliable and costly. Many of my clients are realizing it's not that much cheaper to build overseas and ship back in the US. The main question is can they bring back US factory workers considering how much people at fast food, retail, and the like are getting paid now? Factory workers will expect very high hourly rates.

[Tommy-G]

Who was waiting on that plant? Did they ever get it finally?

[OkieSnuffBox]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

This is the primary problem plus China holding on it's unrealistic zero COVID protocol, at least until Xi gets himself re-elected in the fall and then it will be like COVID is no longer an issue for that country. Too bad for him though as the private equity and industrial clients I work with are giving the middle finger to China and moving out. The country has become unreliable and costly. Many of my clients are realizing it's not that much cheaper to build overseas and ship back in the US. The main question is can they bring back US factory workers considering how much people at fast food, retail, and the like are getting paid now? Factory workers will expect very high hourly rates.

I was going to say, hasn't China even become so expensive that jobs that we outsource to China then outsources to Vietnam, etc.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by OkieSnuffBox

I was going to say, hasn't China even become so expensive that jobs that we outsource to China then outsources to Vietnam, etc.

Yes, China has become increasingly Westernized and pay has increased substantially. Many of the workers that work in the factories across the country either are from neighboring poor countries or come from poor rural regions in China. Most factories and industrial complexes in China have dorms. That means many work, eat, and sleep as a factory worker in China. The buildings and the land are largely owned by government entities. That's how the cost of doing business in China is reduced.

[wtwo3]

The thing about China compared to other Asian countries is not so much its cost of labor (other Asian countries offer cheaper labor), it’s always been China’s efficiency and scale of production which is significantly larger than any other Asian country. However this zero Covid policy is really screwing things up with random lockdowns across the country. I was working on a high profile distribution project with our China team recently and it was a nightmare dealing with lockdowns seemingly at random.

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by wtwo3

The thing about China compared to other Asian countries is not so much its cost of labor (other Asian countries offer cheaper labor), it’s always been China’s efficiency and scale of production which is significantly larger than any other Asian country. However this zero Covid policy is really screwing things up with random lockdowns across the country. I was working on a high profile distribution project with our China team recently and it was a nightmare dealing with lockdowns seemingly at random.

I don't know much about China, however I've never heard anyone talk about how amazing they are to their people and how well treated their workers are. Which brings the question why do they have all these lock downs? Surely it's not for the safety of their employees?

[wtwo3]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

I don't know much about China, however I've never heard anyone talk about how amazing they are to their people and how well treated their workers are. Which brings the question why do they have all these lock downs? Surely it's not for the safety of their employees?

That I’m not sure… but I’d guess there’s some politically charged reasoning behind it all.