New Ytest
Sign out
Bimmerpost
Login
BMW E39 5-Series Forum | 5Post.com
BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read  
Go Back   BMW E39 5-Series Forum | 5Post.com > BIMMERPOST Universal Forums > Off-Topic Discussions Board

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      06-03-2023, 08:15 AM   #7943
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
6374
Rep
2,283
Posts

 
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox View Post
So ... SPX all time high coming next week?
Don't know. Some of my holdings hit ATH earlier this year and are bouncing against it in recent weeks. Earnings, inflation and employment data have been generally good or headed in the right direction.
Appreciate 0
      06-14-2023, 10:15 AM   #7944
Tyga11
Lieutenant Colonel
3227
Rep
1,606
Posts

 
Drives: M4 Comp
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Arizona

iTrader: (0)

So how is everyone feeling?
Appreciate 0
      06-14-2023, 01:55 PM   #7945
other_evolved
Lieutenant Colonel
other_evolved's Avatar
2025
Rep
1,895
Posts

 
Drives: 2015 Chevrolet SS
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Saint Louis

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyga11 View Post
So how is everyone feeling?
Pretty good. No recession expected this year, interest rates levelling off, consumer still spending despite being in a shit mood, earnings holding up.
__________________
Present
2015 Chevrolet SS
2014 Jeep Cherokee Trailhawk V6
Appreciate 1
Tyga113227.00
      06-14-2023, 02:34 PM   #7946
XutvJet
Major General
5488
Rep
5,334
Posts

 
Drives: 2011 Cayman Base, 2016 M235
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Kansas City

iTrader: (-1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyga11 View Post
So how is everyone feeling?
Scared. The longer the market keeps cranking along, the harder the fall will be when it finally does happen.

And yeah, my portfolio has done absolutely great for a long time, but I know what goes up, must come down eventually. I've been in the market long enough to know that.

Also, no one, and I mean no one, knows when it will happen. It will be unexpected and swift. Just like in the past.
__________________
The forest was shrinking, but the Trees kept voting for the Axe, for the Axe was clever and convinced the Trees that because his handle was made of wood, he was one of them.

Last edited by XutvJet; 06-14-2023 at 02:40 PM..
Appreciate 1
tgrundke312.50
      06-14-2023, 03:40 PM   #7947
bagekko
Major
bagekko's Avatar
United_States
776
Rep
1,067
Posts

 
Drives: Lots of BMWs
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: RI/MA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 M4 Vert  [0.00]
2006 Z4M Roadster  [0.00]
1995 540i  [0.00]
2008 BMW M5  [0.00]
2019 i3 Rex  [0.00]
2021 X7 40i MSport  [0.00]
Didn't they say the other day that Europe is officially in a recession? From my experience Europeans overall do not have the spending habits like us, so officially we won't be in a recession as long as we keep spending. Though it may hit the fan when all the dummies who haven't been saving and have to restart their student loan payments in two months, huge disaster if they are variable interest rates as we're close to 0% when paused and now prolly 7%, gonna be a lot of 20-30 somethings moving back into parents basement if they already don't live there.
__________________
2008 M5 6spd, 1995 540i 6spd
2018 M4 Vert Comp, 2019 i3 120ah REX
2021 X7 40i MSport, 2006 Z4M 6spd
Appreciate 0
      06-14-2023, 07:13 PM   #7948
Chick Webb
Private First Class
United_States
1223
Rep
131
Posts

 
Drives: '10 E92, '17 540i, '21 X6 M50i
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bagekko View Post
Didn't they say the other day that Europe is officially in a recession?
Yes, Germany plus 7 others in the EU. Ireland shrank by 4.6% in Q1. And they revised the Q4 '22 number to -0.1% from 0%. No bueno for its largest trading partners - US, UK, China, in order - either.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bagekko View Post
From my experience Europeans overall do not have the spending habits like us, so officially we won't be in a recession as long as we keep spending. Though it may hit the fan when all the dummies who haven't been saving and have to restart their student loan payments in two months, huge disaster if they are variable interest rates as we're close to 0% when paused and now prolly 7%, gonna be a lot of 20-30 somethings moving back into parents basement if they already don't live there.
I've already been reading about the bifurcation, by generation, of spending. Gens X, Z, and even to a degree millenials are all pulling back as they run out of funds for $8 mocha frappes and $15 designer cocktails. They are still spending, of course, because they have jobs and access to credit, but they're definitely feeling the pinch. Boomers, on the other hand, continue to party like it's 1999, apparently. Between staring death in the face during Covid and the fact that many of them used the 0% interest-rate market to create substantial nest eggs, they appear to be willing to splurge still.

The slow-motion trainwreck that is the US economy lumbers on, propelled by trillions in "Inflation Reduction Act" dollars, while pieces of the engine fly off in all directions. Will the resumption of student loan payments - which generally have pre-Covid fixed interest rates, BTW - be the cow that throws it off the tracks, or will that too get flung off into the weeds like the energy price spike of '22 or the more recent banking tumult? I don't think that'll do it, though it may be the catalyst that creates the unemployment we need to finally derail this thing and get inflation back down below 5%.

We're definitely not out of the woods yet, IMHO. And, more importantly, in the minds of the Fed Govs, it seems after today's presser. Keep some powder dry, pop some corn, and grab a seat. Cuz, who doesn't love a trainwreck?! C'mon, you know you do! Admit it!

WaPo Article - There’s a widening spending gap between retirees and younger adults
Appreciate 3
ASAP10048.00
Tyga113227.00
JMcLellan1944.00
      06-15-2023, 01:10 AM   #7949
bagekko
Major
bagekko's Avatar
United_States
776
Rep
1,067
Posts

 
Drives: Lots of BMWs
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: RI/MA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 M4 Vert  [0.00]
2006 Z4M Roadster  [0.00]
1995 540i  [0.00]
2008 BMW M5  [0.00]
2019 i3 Rex  [0.00]
2021 X7 40i MSport  [0.00]
Yeah I too have read that boomers are a significant part of the spending that hasn't slowed, though I do not buy all the talk of the other gens slowing. I do not care about any inheritance, but I can imagine some looking at their parents blowing so much cash thinking nothing is going to be left LMAO. The older part of Gen X likely have reduced spending a lot for those that hoped to retire early or are close to retirement, but I don't think those in 40s has changed much . Millennial spending has slowed because they or friends have been impacted in tech layoffs so might be cautious. Gen Z (post 1998) well almost all of them are still living at home so... lol

Way back when I had student loans, some were fixed and some were variable, and perhaps some didn't get a rate until graduation, hard to remember. Very quickly I consolidated everything, but if there are variable loans out there, how likely did those consolidate them during covid to lock in the low rates. But with rates up, the cost of college for new loans just got much more expensive.

Anytime there's a hand out or anything you think people would save but it rarely happens. I remember of hearing many people 1 or 2 degrees of connections, that stopped paying their mortgage and were living it up during the big RE bust. I doubt the majority of those who accepted the SL payment pause saved anything.

Yeah a lot of unknowns and risk yet to come, the latest doom prophecy is commercial real estate, and in a few months starts the total sh!t show for the 24 election. At least there's no more debt ceiling fights until after that lol. Oh and used car prices are going down..... but that will bring a new problem to anyone who bought used past 18 months and is massively underwater.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chick Webb View Post
I've already been reading about the bifurcation, by generation, of spending. Gens X, Z, and even to a degree millenials are all pulling back as they run out of funds for $8 mocha frappes and $15 designer cocktails. They are still spending, of course, because they have jobs and access to credit, but they're definitely feeling the pinch. Boomers, on the other hand, continue to party like it's 1999, apparently. Between staring death in the face during Covid and the fact that many of them used the 0% interest-rate market to create substantial nest eggs, they appear to be willing to splurge still.

The slow-motion trainwreck that is the US economy lumbers on, propelled by trillions in "Inflation Reduction Act" dollars, while pieces of the engine fly off in all directions. Will the resumption of student loan payments - which generally have pre-Covid fixed interest rates, BTW - be the cow that throws it off the tracks, or will that too get flung off into the weeds like the energy price spike of '22 or the more recent banking tumult? I don't think that'll do it, though it may be the catalyst that creates the unemployment we need to finally derail this thing and get inflation back down below 5%.

We're definitely not out of the woods yet, IMHO. And, more importantly, in the minds of the Fed Govs, it seems after today's presser. Keep some powder dry, pop some corn, and grab a seat. Cuz, who doesn't love a trainwreck?! C'mon, you know you do! Admit it!

WaPo Article - There’s a widening spending gap between retirees and younger adults
__________________
2008 M5 6spd, 1995 540i 6spd
2018 M4 Vert Comp, 2019 i3 120ah REX
2021 X7 40i MSport, 2006 Z4M 6spd
Appreciate 0
      06-15-2023, 10:53 AM   #7950
Chick Webb
Private First Class
United_States
1223
Rep
131
Posts

 
Drives: '10 E92, '17 540i, '21 X6 M50i
Join Date: Sep 2021
Location: CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by bagekko View Post
Oh and used car prices are going down..... but that will bring a new problem to anyone who bought used past 18 months and is massively underwater.
In the most recent PCE report prices for both new and used vehicles were up, month-over-month, so maybe not such bad news for recent buyers after all.

Table 2.4.4U. Price Indexes for Personal Consumption Expenditures by Type of Product
Appreciate 0
      06-15-2023, 10:58 AM   #7951
other_evolved
Lieutenant Colonel
other_evolved's Avatar
2025
Rep
1,895
Posts

 
Drives: 2015 Chevrolet SS
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Saint Louis

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by XutvJet View Post
Scared. The longer the market keeps cranking along, the harder the fall will be when it finally does happen.

And yeah, my portfolio has done absolutely great for a long time, but I know what goes up, must come down eventually. I've been in the market long enough to know that.

Also, no one, and I mean no one, knows when it will happen. It will be unexpected and swift. Just like in the past.
The market ebbs, the market flows, rinse and repeat. There is always some doom and gloom on the horizon but the market marches on.
__________________
Present
2015 Chevrolet SS
2014 Jeep Cherokee Trailhawk V6
Appreciate 1
David701567.00
      06-15-2023, 11:06 AM   #7952
tgrundke
Private First Class
313
Rep
143
Posts

 
Drives: '23 M340xi; '16 GTI Autobahn
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Cleveland, OH

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2023 M340  [10.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chick Webb View Post
In the most recent PCE report prices for both new and used vehicles were up, month-over-month, so maybe not such bad news for recent buyers after all.
Prices on certain used vehicles are definitely declining: anything in the $50k+ space that is a "common" vehicle is improving (3-Series, X3, X5, C-Class, etc.). Most high performance/exotics are retaining their values better than I'd expect.

That said, keep in mind that going into the back half of this year, the number of lease returns coming into the used market will drop significantly, and moving forward, the market will be short several million used cars due to production cuts.

Used car price increases may be moderating/dropping, but don't expect a significant draw-down in prices unless dealers need to sell under duress.
Appreciate 0
      06-15-2023, 11:56 AM   #7953
bagekko
Major
bagekko's Avatar
United_States
776
Rep
1,067
Posts

 
Drives: Lots of BMWs
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: RI/MA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2018 M4 Vert  [0.00]
2006 Z4M Roadster  [0.00]
1995 540i  [0.00]
2008 BMW M5  [0.00]
2019 i3 Rex  [0.00]
2021 X7 40i MSport  [0.00]
Actually this summer will be big for 3 & 4 yr lease returns which are before COVID or before the supply issues. For example between now and September there will be more X7 lease returns than any year prior. My 3yr X7 lease is up, we are buying it out and keeping, there were tons of X7 leases as plenty of deals and supply.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tgrundke View Post
Prices on certain used vehicles are definitely declining: anything in the $50k+ space that is a "common" vehicle is improving (3-Series, X3, X5, C-Class, etc.). Most high performance/exotics are retaining their values better than I'd expect.

That said, keep in mind that going into the back half of this year, the number of lease returns coming into the used market will drop significantly, and moving forward, the market will be short several million used cars due to production cuts.

Used car price increases may be moderating/dropping, but don't expect a significant draw-down in prices unless dealers need to sell under duress.
__________________
2008 M5 6spd, 1995 540i 6spd
2018 M4 Vert Comp, 2019 i3 120ah REX
2021 X7 40i MSport, 2006 Z4M 6spd
Appreciate 0
      06-15-2023, 12:00 PM   #7954
tgrundke
Private First Class
313
Rep
143
Posts

 
Drives: '23 M340xi; '16 GTI Autobahn
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Cleveland, OH

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2023 M340  [10.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by bagekko View Post
Actually this summer will be big for 3 & 4 yr lease returns which are before COVID or before the supply issues. For example between now and September there will be more X7 lease returns than any year prior. My 3yr X7 lease is up, we are buying it out and keeping, there were tons of X7 leases as plenty of deals and supply.
Yeah, I just re-read what I wrote and I screwed that one up. You're absolutely correct.

I'm in discussions right now with two dealers who are selling 2021 M340 lease returns that came back to them at a $39,000 - $41k residuals and the dealers are listing them for $58k....
Appreciate 0
      06-17-2023, 09:49 AM   #7955
XKxRome0ox
e90noob
XKxRome0ox's Avatar
United_States
1588
Rep
1,857
Posts

 
Drives: '08 E90 M3
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Los Angeles, CA

iTrader: (4)

All. Time. High.
And then some more
Wtf
__________________
2008 E90 M3 / LCI trunk + euro tail swap

Production date - 2008-04-22
Appreciate 1
chassis6373.50
      06-17-2023, 10:00 AM   #7956
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
6374
Rep
2,283
Posts

 
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
MSFT ATH = good
Appreciate 1
XKxRome0ox1587.50
      06-17-2023, 10:04 AM   #7957
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
6374
Rep
2,283
Posts

 
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by tgrundke View Post
Prices on certain used vehicles are definitely declining
Or not.

Data from Cargurus. German brands included as this is a BMW site. The German brand data follows the overall market trend (Index Price, dark blue line on the chart).
Attached Images
 
Appreciate 1
David701567.00
      06-30-2023, 10:03 AM   #7958
Tyga11
Lieutenant Colonel
3227
Rep
1,606
Posts

 
Drives: M4 Comp
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Arizona

iTrader: (0)

I've been selling profits from big tech the past month. Continuing to do so and taking profits on days like this...
Appreciate 0
      07-14-2023, 01:46 PM   #7959
Tyga11
Lieutenant Colonel
3227
Rep
1,606
Posts

 
Drives: M4 Comp
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Arizona

iTrader: (0)

I imagine a lot of posters in here missed on the rally...
Appreciate 2
XKxRome0ox1587.50
David701567.00
      07-14-2023, 07:13 PM   #7960
JP10
Major
JP10's Avatar
United_States
2462
Rep
1,144
Posts

 
Drives: M3
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: SC

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tyga11 View Post
I imagine a lot of posters in here missed on the rally...
Bet you missed a ton of it too lol
Appreciate 0
      07-14-2023, 08:05 PM   #7961
Tyga11
Lieutenant Colonel
3227
Rep
1,606
Posts

 
Drives: M4 Comp
Join Date: Jul 2019
Location: Arizona

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by JP10 View Post
Bet you missed a ton of it too lol
I did not. I bought QQQ, META & NVIDIA late last year. I took advantage of weakness
Appreciate 0
      07-17-2023, 08:49 AM   #7962
David70
Colonel
United_States
1567
Rep
2,665
Posts

 
Drives: 06 Z4M Coupe - 13 Cadillac ATS
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Cincinnati, OH

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by other_evolved View Post
The market ebbs, the market flows, rinse and repeat. There is always some doom and gloom on the horizon but the market marches on.
Agree. If you aren't trying to time the market and instead look medium/long term there is never anything to be scared about when it comes to the stock market.

My favorite is the people talking about a future recession but not giving a date or even a range. Somewhere in the future they will say they predicted it.
__________________
2006 Z4M Coupe - Stromung exhaust, ZHP knob, stubby antenna, clutch delay delete
Appreciate 2
chassis6373.50
      07-17-2023, 09:03 AM   #7963
chassis
Colonel
chassis's Avatar
6374
Rep
2,283
Posts

 
Drives: 9Y0 Cayenne S
Join Date: Mar 2019
Location: Einbahnstraße

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by David70 View Post
My favorite is the people talking about a future recession but not giving a date or even a range. Somewhere in the future they will say they predicted it.


My favorite too. Lots of it on this thread, sadly.
Appreciate 3
David701567.00
Tyga113227.00
      07-17-2023, 09:17 AM   #7964
Donatello.
How's My Driving?
Donatello.'s Avatar
1016
Rep
952
Posts

 
Drives: Hellcat & Miata
Join Date: Apr 2020
Location: US

iTrader: (0)

What is everyone buying this week? I've got some $ sitting in my IRA that I would like to buy some stocks and/or ETFs
__________________
2018 Charger Hellcat
2019 Miata 30th Anniversary
2021 CX-5
2009 Mazda6
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:03 AM.




5post
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST