Has inflation pushed you over the edge?

[Alfisti]

I am a little lost on this topic TBH. Yes inflation is real and may be as high as 10pc for some items but entry level wages have risen SHARPLY in just 6 months, like REALLY sharply, closer to 30%. We have move our rates from $11.50 to $15 in a year.

There's a disconnect I cannot make sense of, surely front line, entry level workers are better off now than they have been for some time?

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

I am a little lost on this topic TBH. Yes inflation is real and may be as high as 10pc for some items but entry level wages have risen SHARPLY in just 6 months, like REALLY sharply, closer to 30%. We have move our rates from $11.50 to $15 in a year.

There's a disconnect I cannot make sense of, surely front line, entry level workers are better off now than they have been for some time?

No, because rent is sky high everywhere. The problem is we have pockets of inflation (housing, gas, etc) that is exponentially higher than what those wage increases are doing.

The middle class is dying in this country.

[stevenopoly]

What's the problem with inflation? Mainstream media says its actually good and if you don't agree then you're a moron. ---Let's go Brandon!!!

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

1. because the Fed was caught by surprise by the inflation, and still wants us to believe it is “transitory”. I think this is classic “jawboning” and the Fed knows inflation is a bigger and more persistent problem than they are letting on. But if they pull the trigger too early on rate increases, they fear the recovery will stall or they’ll push the economy into recession. So they’re going slow. Secondarily, they probably want to see the fiscal actions by congress, which they may need to counter with monetary policy.

2. Because this administration believes it was voted in to enact major social program expansions and all politicians believe they can buy votes via pork-barrel legislation. There is really no check on congress’ spending any more as both parties benefit. Not trying to start a political debate, just my sense of how things operate. But even if these programs are well intentioned and even needed (certainly everything in BBB is not, but let’s run with the assumption), they are highly stimulative. In an economy that is beyond “full employment” because there are far more open jobs than job seekers, fiscal stimulation is pretty much all inflationary.

My own view is inflation is going to be with us for at least a few years (definitely past the mid-terms), although it should moderate to the 3-4% level as specific crunches are eased (lumber, chips, etc). There is a small possibility it could fall to the levels we’ve seen for the past two decades, but I think a greater possibility it will run higher than I currently expect.

1. Stalling will only cause further inflation - politics need to be taken out of this.

2. Same as above- there are no checks... politics aside we are in big trouble.

I work in a high margin busines. My friend, prices are not going down until the economy tanks. We will see out of the ordinary inflation unless there is a major action- the Fed NEEDS to risk a recession at this point or you will create multi generational pain. 2009 was terrible but by 2013 we were rocking and rolling... can you imagine how much housing would cost know if 2009 did not happen?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

No, because rent is sky high everywhere. The problem is we have pockets of inflation (housing, gas, etc) that is exponentially higher than what those wage increases are doing.

The middle class is dying in this country.

The last statement is the truest its ever been in the past 200 years.

[Alfisti]

You're entire system down there virtually guarantees the middle class will evaporate. Entry level wages are hilariously low and federal taxation is low on a global scale. Under that framework, you're gonna get have's and have nots, the USA has always been far more unequal than other western democracies.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ent-by-country

You can in the link provided that most western democracies hover in and around 30 to 35 with the USA the sole country over 40. Most of the other countries over 40 are basket cases or flat out weird joints like Singapore.

[OkieSnuffBox]

I've noticed the grocery bill is higher, but we live well within our means, so it's not really impacting our spending at all.

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

You're entire system down there virtually guarantees the middle class will evaporate. Entry level wages are hilariously low and federal taxation is low on a global scale. Under that framework, you're gonna get have's and have nots, the USA has always been far more unequal than other western democracies.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/co...ent-by-country

You can in the link provided that most western democracies hover in and around 30 to 35 with the USA the sole country over 40. Most of the other countries over 40 are basket cases or flat out weird joints like Singapore.

Seems like a meaningless number. YOU say countries over 40 are basket cases and I say many of the countries in the 30s are shit holes. If a lower number somehow = better then people should be flocking to Slovenia, Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Mongolia….

BTW this is what that site says about Slovenia which has the lowest number:

"Slovenia is one of the most rapidly aging European countries with a low birth rate and increasing life expectancy. The working-age group continues to decline, despite immigration. It also has one of Europe's highest suidicde rates at 22 per 100,000.”

Sounds like paradise to me!

[Alfisti]

There's a clear delineation there chief. Of modern, westernised, organised economies with a relatively stable political situation, we are looking at Western Europe, Norther Europe, USA, Canada, Australia and NZ. YOu can maybe include central europe.

The US is the highest such country on the list at 41, the next country on the list is NZ at 36, that is quite a margin.

I don't know how anyone can argue in any way, shape or form that the US, for better or worse, has always been a bit more about the individual than the collective.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

There's a clear delineation there chief. Of modern, westernised, organised economies with a relatively stable political situation, we are looking at Western Europe, Norther Europe, USA, Canada, Australia and NZ. YOu can maybe include central europe.

The US is the highest such country on the list at 41, the next country on the list is NZ at 36, that is quite a margin.

I don't know how anyone can argue in any way, shape or form that the US, for better or worse, has always been a bit more about the individual than the collective.

I don't think its about the individual as much as it is... economically do whatever you can get away with... complete free market approach.

Except this free market approach is somehow completely skewed towards corporations and wealthier people... so what happens is they ironically also get all of the assistance when things go down hill. It's very exploitative... and i have no idea how many havent figure this out yet.

[Alfisti]

You're getting more into the way the economy works rather than pure fiscal policy i guess. Your taxation rates are very low compared to the regions I listed above, again for better or worse. Couple this with extremely low entry level wage rates and that is going to create a divide, it is inevitable.

The US/Canadian system of really high property taxes also hurts the middle class as you're paying the same rate as your neighbour who may be earning twice as much as you. It's not a flat tax but it's not progressive the way income taxes are either. Again, most folks in the USA seem to like it this way and that is fine but it will lead to a widening gap.

[LookBothWays]

Two reasons I see inflation as a staggering long term problem:

1. Production will not recover sufficiently to overcome shortages for the foreseeable future. The worldwide affluent population has reached the tipping point vs manufacturing capacity and materials/resources supply.

2. Short of a global recession which is highly unlikely on it's own the way to halt spiraling inflation is limiting money supply and raising interest rates both of which are extremely unpalatable to governments addicted to deficit overspending and could possible add a trillion dollars to US deficits alone. Our debt has our hands tied and the tide is coming in or out if you're not wearing pants.

[ryan stewart]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I don't think its about the individual as much as it is... economically do whatever you can get away with... complete free market approach.

Except this free market approach is somehow completely skewed towards corporations and wealthier people... so what happens is they ironically also get all of the assistance when things go down hill. It's very exploitative... and i have no idea how many havent figure this out yet.

Some people have but for the rest the myth of the job creator and corporations pleading poverty fuel crony capitalism talking points.

Its also exacerbated wealth wise with how much importance we give to market capitalization as this concept of health. Everything is about making that go up and its not connected to the true health of a firm or an economy. It creates a system where those who can play that stacked game (and this is coming from a guy whose side gig is playing that game) exponentially gain wealth over those who cannot.

Getting rid of things like capital gains tax structures and just calling it all income would do a lot but really dumb people seem to believe that we would stop investing if we had to pay income taxes on it, which is stupid. I'm all for 100k in profits even if I have to pay back 37% of it instead of 20%, the only thing its going to do is make me decide if I want to risk holding it for a year or just cut my quarterly check and sleep soundly at night.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

You're getting more into the way the economy works rather than pure fiscal policy i guess. Your taxation rates are very low compared to the regions I listed above, again for better or worse. Couple this with extremely low entry level wage rates and that is going to create a divide, it is inevitable.

The US/Canadian system of really high property taxes also hurts the middle class as you're paying the same rate as your neighbour who may be earning twice as much as you. It's not a flat tax but it's not progressive the way income taxes are either. Again, most folks in the USA seem to like it this way and that is fine but it will lead to a widening gap.

I think property tax should be very significantly progressive as you own more properties... outside of homestead exemption we don't have that...
This would level the playing field quick.

[tranquility]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I don't think its about the individual as much as it is... economically do whatever you can get away with... complete free market approach.

Except this free market approach is somehow completely skewed towards corporations and wealthier people... so what happens is they ironically also get all of the assistance when things go down hill. It's very exploitative... and i have no idea how many havent figure this out yet.

Definitely not by a long shot. I was really asking a rhetorical in my earlier post but many repliers just told me of a sys like it's just some well-oiled machine and everyone supposedly eventually gets their fair share of the pie. There's nothing 'free' about the economy much less 'democracy' but you'd have ppl fighting tooth-and-nail believing they are not getting the shaft and the ppl in power are w them...but this is all too controversial for a car forum so I'd leave it at that.

[ryan stewart]

Originally Posted by ASAP

1. Stalling will only cause further inflation - politics need to be taken out of this.

2. Same as above- there are no checks... politics aside we are in big trouble.

I work in a high margin busines. My friend, prices are not going down until the economy tanks. We will see out of the ordinary inflation unless there is a major action- the Fed NEEDS to risk a recession at this point or you will create multi generational pain. 2009 was terrible but by 2013 we were rocking and rolling... can you imagine how much housing would cost know if 2009 did not happen?

Those interest rates are insane. Production cant keep up with demand, this was a problem even before COVID started screwing up supply chains.

Houses in my hood don't even make it long enough for Zillow to figure it out. They hit the MLS and the realtors sign goes up with the "under contract" banner on it. My neighbor just got an investor to buy his house for 42% over what they paid 4 years ago with no change but a fresh coat of paint and 4 years of age. The neighborhood hasn't changed other than its where couples are coming because the same thing in the "cool" neighborhoods are going for 800k+.

If my house was going for what it is now when I bought it there is no way I could have afforded it then, and even then I was making great money.

Rents aren't far behind. You're not getting anything under $1.60/sq-ft unless you're willing to clean out the dead bodies yourself on move in. And its cute to tell someone to move someplace else but it doesnt get "cheap" until you hit Kennesaw, but most of the work is in the city. I could do that but a poor person? They absolutely need a car as we have no real mass transit and those arent exactly cheap to own or maintain.

Edit: and some first hand now. Girlfriend just listed her house yesterday. 9 showings so far today with 8 requests for tomorrow and an open house on Sunday. 2 offers already. Only 6 houses in her price range in the burbs she lives in on the market at the moment. Its a $350k listing for a house from 1954 that isnt really rennovated short of new paint and kitchen updates.

[freakystyly]

House prices are all relative.. what we all have in common is that it's too damn high. And when the interest rates start to normalize, you're left holding the bag (or on the street).

When a $200k income is having a hard time getting into these markets, what does that leave for the $20k?

[3.0L]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I think property tax should be very significantly progressive as you own more properties... outside of homestead exemption we don't have that...
This would level the playing field quick.

Here in California we enjoy the benefits of Prop 13 where your home is taxed on what you paid for it; not what it's worth. This is particularly good for folks who purchased their homes long ago and are still living in them when they retire. Prior to prop 13 I saw some retired folks lose their homes because they could not afford the ever increasing property taxes as the value of their homes continually increased. Owning a valuable home is great, but that is not money in your pocket.

[F32Fleet]

Doing fine other than having to spend about $5k over the last two months for unexpected expenses. I know a lot of this inflation is due to supply disruptions combined with pent up demand from 2020.

My biggest fear is turning into what my dad (RIP, I miss you soo much) would call an imbranato because I now work from home.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Between you and me... why do you think 1 and 2 have not happened yet?

They both need to happen right now at a violent rate... 1 hasn't happened for like 5-6 years and our economy has been flying.

Both Trump, Biden and just about everyone else in sight is scared of this happening...

I am under the impression you would see a recession if it did... then perhaps an economic collapse due to massive asset bubbles?

Precisely. Raising rates hasn't happened because it will immediately cause a rotation out of stocks, especially asset bubble stocks and real estate, and the cascading effect will be enormous.

Fact is: the near zero interest rates for the last 10+ years has blown an astronomical asset bubble fueled by cheap money. Servicing that debt successfully is predicated on low rates. Raise rates and the current business model collapses.

In my industry (technology management), company valuations have been through the roof because p/e firms are paying huge multiples to build recurring revenue model businesses. The game is to buy a bunch of smaller IT firms at high valuation, put them together, then sell it off to a bigger fish upstream. Not rocket science, but the valuations only work because of cheap money.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by ASAP

2009 was terrible but by 2013 we were rocking and rolling... can you imagine how much housing would cost know if 2009 did not happen?

100% agree. Where the political class failed in 2009/2010 was in not letting more bad actors fail and suffer the consequences. As a result, the bubble being blown right now is even more massive, across more asset classes than just real estate.

[vanguard8]

Originally Posted by stevenopoly

What's the problem with inflation? Mainstream media says its actually good and if you don't agree then you're a moron. ---Let's go Brandon!!!

It's not so simple. Low inflation is good, at ~ 2% per current thinking.
Deflation can be pretty bad, and pols want to stay away from that. Japan would be the example.