Stock market tips and experiences

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Real bleeding started?

China's zero COVID approach will likely create a significant market tumble in the next year or so. Hundreds of thousands will die in China once COVID takes a firm grasp of that country and it's going to bring that country to a standstill until it can come to terms with accepting COVID as a part of life and that they can't lock themselves down forever. Once you start seeing multi-thousand COVID outbreaks in a number of Chinese cities and numerous factories start shutting down is when the world wide economy will really start to feel the effects. That will include a loss of control on their end to contain the virus.

If Russia invades the Ukraine, that too will negatively impact the market for a short while and quite possibly very soon. If other countries lose their cool and side with Russia, it could be a very dangerous and more grave situation for the world. It's hard to tell exactly what Putin will do. Russians love to F with others and take things right up to the edge and then back off.

Overall, it's going to be a bumpy 2022. I still think a bunch of you are bonkers with your puts, hopes and dreams stocks, crypto, etc. For the vast majority of normal people, there is no safe or effective get rich quick scheme. The most effective and financially advantageous investment strategy remains to be low fee S&P 500 funds as the primary investment vehicle. Yes, it's quite boring and hands off, but over the long term, it's the most successful approach for the majority.

[Humdizzle]

yeah no get rich quick schemes this year. i feel bad for anyone who just got into investing recently in the last 6-12 months. even if you made mostly safe picks with a few gambles you're probably sitting in the red or at a net zero.

as they say.... the market usually takes the elevator on the way down, and the stairs on the way up.

i'll add to positions once i see some stability. im just gonna sit on it for now.

can anyone explain the intraday volatility as of late? 2-3% swings up and then crashing later in the afternoon for the last few days it seems.

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by barcelona

It was worse than a value stock, depreciating value like my car. haha

except these days, used cars are appreciating
much better "vehicle" for storing value than the stock market

pun intended

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Real bleeding started?

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

yeah no get rich quick schemes this year. i feel bad for anyone who just got into investing recently in the last 6-12 months. even if you made mostly safe picks with a few gambles you're probably sitting in the red or at a net zero.

i used to just dabble with stocks
throwing a few hundred to a few thousand bucks starting just a few years ago
I threw a decent amount into brokerage accounts just over a year ago... and i'm really paying the price for it now

i'm bleeding like a stuck pig

[BMW F22]

Is now a good time to put money into S&P500 and average down as it drops further? This is long term play. Or is it better to wait and see how much more bottoming out it goes?

[barcelona]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

except these days, used cars are appreciating
much better vehicle for storing value than the stock market

Good One

Hence, last month I traded in two BMW's for a new one. Today, Elon said there are still supply constraints after reporting Dec eps. I think he said but it is better.

[barcelona]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Is now a good time to put money into S&P500 and average down as it drops further? This is long term play. Or is it better to wait and see how much more bottoming out it goes?

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns

No one knows. Being LT, the decision is easier. SPY is a proven investment vehicle, real estate is likely another good vehicle. I agree with Xutvjet's views on SPY. As you may know SPY top 8 holdings are Faang type mega cap; however future qtrs may have tough comps. So far, msft , appl ( awaiting conf call) reported good Dec #'s, tsla is down but not for eps reasons.

For me, I have been waiting since say last June to buy SPY and QQQ. With the current environment, I prefer SPY more.

Buying in tranches is generally a safe bet unless there is a major melt down, then I personally would be more aggressive.

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Is now a good time to put money into S&P500 and average down as it drops further? This is long term play. Or is it better to wait and see how much more bottoming out it goes?

do you have a crystal ball? you're not going to know the true bottom
it could drop more after you get in ... or you miss the recovery and miss out on a bunch of gains

better approach is to invest consistently since the market should recover and grow
the "time in the market" strategy


i'm not good at this. because i got a late start, I was playing very risky stuff to try to hit homeruns

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

do you have a crystal ball? you're not going to know the true bottom
it could drop more after you get in ... or you miss the recovery and miss out on a bunch of gains

better approach is to invest consistently since the market should recover and grow
the "time in the market" strategy


i'm not good at this. because i got a late start, I was playing very risky stuff to try to hit homeruns

Originally Posted by barcelona

https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns

No one knows. Being LT, the decision is easier. SPY is a proven investment vehicle, real estate is likely another good vehicle. I agree with Xutvjet's views on SPY. As you may know SPY top 8 holdings are Faang type mega cap; however future qtrs may have tough comps. So far, msft , appl ( awaiting conf call) reported good Dec #'s, tsla is down but not for eps reasons.

For me, I have been waiting since say last June to buy SPY and QQQ. With the current environment, I prefer SPY more.

Buying in tranches is generally a safe bet unless there is a major melt down, then I personally would be more aggressive.

Yeah, that thinking was driven home for me recently. Bought in during the last dip and it's gone lower since last October/November. It's not life changing amounts so I'm going to hold. That solidified the idea of consistent investment in S&P500 will pay out well over the long run. Getting pretty good annual returns on 401K and IRA with Vanguard and S&P so why not just do the same instead of picking stocks. 100% agree that unless you bought in around Spring of 2020, the overall balance is almost net 0 or lower. That's why I did not jump in with too much in the past year. Was waiting for a correction.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Is now a good time to put money into S&P500 and average down as it drops further? This is long term play. Or is it better to wait and see how much more bottoming out it goes?

Yes, average in now with a longterm strategy. When us and the world eclipse the pandemic, for the first time and for real this time, this reopening should stimulate the economy - a good thing to be in for

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

China's zero COVID approach will likely create a significant market tumble in the next year or so. Hundreds of thousands will die in China once COVID takes a firm grasp of that country and it's going to bring that country to a standstill until it can come to terms with accepting COVID as a part of life and that they can't lock themselves down forever. Once you start seeing multi-thousand COVID outbreaks in a number of Chinese cities and numerous factories start shutting down is when the world wide economy will really start to feel the effects. That will include a loss of control on their end to contain the virus.

If Russia invades the Ukraine, that too will negatively impact the market for a short while and quite possibly very soon. If other countries lose their cool and side with Russia, it could be a very dangerous and more grave situation for the world. It's hard to tell exactly what Putin will do. Russians love to F with others and take things right up to the edge and then back off.

Overall, it's going to be a bumpy 2022. I still think a bunch of you are bonkers with your puts, hopes and dreams stocks, crypto, etc. For the vast majority of normal people, there is no safe or effective get rich quick scheme. The most effective and financially advantageous investment strategy remains to be low fee S&P 500 funds as the primary investment vehicle. Yes, it's quite boring and hands off, but over the long term, it's the most successful approach for the majority.

If you dont think people in china have been dying from covid you are mistaken. They are playing the data to fit a narrative.

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Yeah, that thinking was driven home for me recently. Bought in during the last dip and it's gone lower since last October/November. It's not life changing amounts so I'm going to hold. That solidified the idea of consistent investment in S&P500 will pay out well over the long run. Getting pretty good annual returns on 401K and IRA with Vanguard and S&P so why not just do the same instead of picking stocks. 100% agree that unless you bought in around Spring of 2020, the overall balance is almost net 0 or lower. That's why I did not jump in with too much in the past year. Was waiting for a correction.

the past several months have taught me that cash is a position and it is important to have cash on hand to make moves

i don't have anything left to buy this sweet sweet dip

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Is now a good time to put money into S&P500 and average down as it drops further? This is long term play. Or is it better to wait and see how much more bottoming out it goes?

Sure. Just be prepared and accept that you could lose 20%+ tomorrow or thru the year OR it the funds xould grow by a nice amount. The success comes from time in the market. It's ebb and flow, but generally climbs and climbs over the long term, especially with things like low fee S&P 500 index funds.

I've been in the market for nearly 3 decades. I've weathered some of worst collapses and have had my portfolio shrink by 40% over the course of 6 months only to have it fully recover in 3 months. I changed basically nothing when COVID hit. My portfolio shrunk by 20% in days, only to launch into the stratosphere 4 months later. Patience and a cool head is a must.

Investing does not need to be complicated if your goal is to retire with $1M-5M. It's quite simple really and no financial advisor is necessary if you're willing to put in just a marginal amount of effort.

[antzcrashing]

Predicting hikes. I think it will be no more than 3, which is better for growth and tech stocks. But it's anyone's guess, as is the reaction to higher rates

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

the past several months have taught me that cash is a position and it is important to have cash on hand to make moves

i don't have anything left to buy this sweet sweet dip

Use some margin, just don't overleverage it.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

the past several months have taught me that cash is a position and it is important to have cash on hand to make moves

i don't have anything left to buy this sweet sweet dip

Correct. Cash reduces portfolio volatility and liquidity is always a good thing.

If you have 3-4 years of living expenses in cash and liquid investments, you are in a strong position to weather market dips and take advantage of opportunities.

[barcelona]

CME Fedwatch Tool

https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/int...n-to-fomc.html

March meeting, the bp hike is higher % and with higher probabilities.

[barcelona]

Market don't like surprises. Fed does not want to wait for next CPI # that comes before the scheduled March meeting.

[antzcrashing]

Updated fed hike probabilities. So 6 hikes likely. Not buying it. I am 50/50 on whether the first hike will be 50 basis pts or 25, leaning more towards 25

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Updated fed hike probabilities. So 6 hikes likely. Not buying it. I am 50/50 on whether the first hike will be 50 basis pts or 25, leaning more towards 25

going to be buying a new house in April-June time period ... hoping for the least bump in interest rate

[antzcrashing]

How are your repositioning? I am sitting on like 8% cash, trying to keep myself from buying more stocks

[chassis]

I think Powell's vision is coming into focus. Transitory inflation is real; where he erred is not quantifying the definition of transitory. Labor is flooding into the economy, base year comparison, plus uncertainty from the Russkis will cool inflation off.

I have opened small position in logistics that I am slowly increasing.