Stock market tips and experiences

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

If you're going to hold them for the duration, putting some money into Treasuries is a safe way to not lose quite so much to inflation while taking zero risk and waiting for the dust to settle. Rates may go up more, though, and if they do and you have to sell you'll likely lose a little of the capital. But rates aren't likely going to go up that much more so you're not going to get shellacked like those of us holding bonds in January. And if the market turns up it's likely because rates are down and then you'll be able to sell for a small profit and put the money back into stocks if you'd like.

But, you will be losing money. Inflation isn't likely going to be below 4% anytime during those two years (IMHO), so if you do hold them you're pretty much guaranteed to lose money. Could you lose more in stocks? Maybe. History says that they (and other hard assets) are the only way to beat inflation in the long run, though. And it would be very unusual to see the market down two years from now, based on how much it's already declined. Could happen, of course, but that's a place I don't personally want to go in my head. Too scary.

You talked about an absurd amount of cash earlier. What vehicle are you holding cash in?

[MKSixer]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

If you're going to hold them for the duration, putting some money into Treasuries is a safe way to not lose quite so much to inflation while taking zero risk and waiting for the dust to settle. Rates may go up more, though, and if they do and you have to sell you'll likely lose a little of the capital. But rates aren't likely going to go up that much more so you're not going to get shellacked like those of us holding bonds in January. And if the market turns up it's likely because rates are down and then you'll be able to sell for a small profit and put the money back into stocks if you'd like.

But, you will be losing money. Inflation isn't likely going to be below 4% anytime during those two years (IMHO), so if you do hold them you're pretty much guaranteed to lose money. Could you lose more in stocks? Maybe. History says that they (and other hard assets) are the only way to beat inflation in the long run, though. And it would be very unusual to see the market down two years from now, based on how much it's already declined. Could happen, of course, but that's a place I don't personally want to go in my head. Too scary.

Thank you for adding more permutations to this for me. It's good information and my brain is still recovering.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by chassis

You talked about an absurd amount of cash earlier. What vehicle are you holding cash in?

A MM? They're paying like 2.5% I think.

TSLA earnings tomorrow btw

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by chassis

You talked about an absurd amount of cash earlier. What vehicle are you holding cash in?

3- and 6-month Treasuries.

[kscarrol]

Same here, parked cash in 3 month treasuries.

[Tyga11]

I bought SNAP calls before market close...thought for sure the thing would moon.

[kscarrol]

Ugh, not looking good on those calls...

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I bought SNAP calls before market close...thought for sure the thing would moon.

Yeah, ouch. Slowing growth, drop in ARPU, still losing money. Not good traits in this market. Even announcing a $500 M buyback and 20% staff cut couldn't help them.

Ed: How do you even think about buying back stock when you're still losing money? I mean, I get it, buybacks are a sort of return to investors, but that strikes me as bizarre.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Yeah, ouch. Slowing growth, drop in ARPU, still losing money. Not good traits in this market. Even announcing a $500 M buyback and 20% staff cut couldn't help them.

Ed: How do you even think about buying back stock when you're still losing money? I mean, I get it, buybacks are a sort of return to investors, but that strikes me as bizarre.

My rationale was the stock is down 70% YTD and even a slight miss would result in green...lol

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I bought SNAP calls before market close...thought for sure the thing would moon.

Moon as in crater?????

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

My rationale was the stock is down 70% YTD and even a slight miss would result in green...lol

Don't they have casinos in Arizona now? Next time you could just head over the roulette table and throw it down on Black. Or Red. Better odds, just sayin'....

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

3- and 6-month Treasuries.

That's not cash.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

That's not cash.

Technically true, but they're about as liquid as you can get, so if I needed to have actual dollars in hand I could do that in a heartbeat with little negative consequence. Plus, they're laddered, so I never have to wait more than a week or two for some portion of them to come due. And right now it's not like I'm in a hurry to go rushing back into anything, so I don't need that much free cash to invest. It's working for now.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

Moon as in crater?????

Oh, snap!

[chassis]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

That's not cash.

Near cash. What prompts the observation? Is there more?

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

Moon as in crater?????

I mean it was $200. Unlike others I post my losses here.

[LuvMyE92]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Ed: How do you even think about buying back stock when you're still losing money? I mean, I get it, buybacks are a sort of return to investors, but that strikes me as bizarre.

It is, but remember too that a "loss" is an accounting term done primarily for tax purposes, so if they lose $500M that doesn't mean that they've actually misplaced (i.e. lost) the money, rather it's often non-tangible crap like depreciation.

Buybacks are a crock, but that's a topic for a different thread.

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I mean it was $200. Unlike others I post my losses here.

You really don't want to know about my losses. It would make you cry. By the same token, I never brag about my wins. But that's me.

OK, rarely. I did have a little win last week on an S&P500 option trade, but that only barely covered all of my options losses for the year, so...

When I was a wee tot, some coworkers and I would chat about stocks, what to buy, sell, etc. and one of those was all about how smart she was buying XYZ for only $3 a share and then doubling, yes doubling her money!!! It wasn't until later that we found out she had bought 10 shares. It kind of diminishes your faith...

But then there was this other woman who found an obscure arbitrage position between a stock and the underlying option and/or warrant (I can't remember) and used it for a one day move that paid for her new Honda Accord. So that was nice for her.

What was the question?

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Technically true, but they're about as liquid as you can get, so if I needed to have actual dollars in hand I could do that in a heartbeat with little negative consequence. Plus, they're laddered, so I never have to wait more than a week or two for some portion of them to come due. And right now it's not like I'm in a hurry to go rushing back into anything, so I don't need that much free cash to invest. It's working for now.

I take no issue with the strategy, and I think it's smart. But I think it would have been nice if you mentioned it as a note about the "liquid position". Similarly when another member mentioned being all in on Tesla that would be conceived as 100 percent, but later said it was around 20 percent portfolio. We should try to reflect the true levels of bullish/bearish that we are

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

I take no issue with the strategy, and I think it's smart. But I think it would have been nice if you mentioned it as a note about the "liquid position". Similarly when another member mentioned being all in on Tesla that would be conceived as 100 percent, but later said it was around 20 percent portfolio. We should try to reflect the true levels of bullish/bearish that we are

30% to be exact

[chassis]

Originally Posted by LuvMyE92

It is, but remember too that a "loss" is an accounting term done primarily for tax purposes, so if they lose $500M that doesn't mean that they've actually misplaced (i.e. lost) the money, rather it's often non-tangible crap like depreciation.

Buybacks are a crock, but that's a topic for a different thread.




You really don't want to know about my losses. It would make you cry. By the same token, I never brag about my wins. But that's me.

OK, rarely. I did have a little win last week on an S&P500 option trade, but that only barely covered all of my options losses for the year, so...

When I was a wee tot, some coworkers and I would chat about stocks, what to buy, sell, etc. and one of those was all about how smart she was buying XYZ for only $3 a share and then doubling, yes doubling her money!!! It wasn't until later that we found out she had bought 10 shares. It kind of diminishes your faith...

But then there was this other woman who found an obscure arbitrage position between a stock and the underlying option and/or warrant (I can't remember) and used it for a one day move that paid for her new Honda Accord. So that was nice for her.

What was the question?

I am interested to hear more about buybacks. I think it fits this thread.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

But I think it would have been nice if you mentioned it as a note about the "liquid position".

I'm not sure what that means. Should I have written "cash/cash equivalents"? I kinda figured that was self-evident; it's not like I've got it stuffed in a mattress.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

I'm not sure what that means. Should I have written "cash/cash equivalents"? I kinda figured that was self-evident; it's not like I've got it stuffed in a mattress.

I interpret cash as Treasury Bonds / money market accounts / pure cash. It’s all the same