Where/when does the car market stabilize?

[gilberjj]

I’ve been searching for the right e9x m3 after selling my former e92 6mt competition in December of 2022.
The market has been softening for quite some time, but owners seem reluctant to admit it. This seems to be a theme across all vehicles… diesel trucks, Porsches, jet skis, etc.
Where and when does it stabilize? I was watching some videos about new car inventories and startling news about the number of vehicle loans which are underwater right now. Seems like we are headed into a buyers market, but it’s been slow to materialize.
As a cash buyer, I’m trying to be patient. I’m also searching for my unicorn spec.

[mjj]

I believe it will take a serious & prolonged economic downturn that impacts the people closer to the top before anything really resets the enthusiast market. We haven’t seen anything close to that in recent times.

[bosstones]

Just wait until after I find my next ride. Prices are sure to plummet after that (rates, too).

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by gilberjj

I’ve been searching for the right e9x m3 after selling my former e92 6mt competition in December of 2022.
The market has been softening for quite some time, but owners seem reluctant to admit it. This seems to be a theme across all vehicles… diesel trucks, Porsches, jet skis, etc.
Where and when does it stabilize? I was watching some videos about new car inventories and startling news about the number of vehicle loans which are underwater right now. Seems like we are headed into a buyers market, but it’s been slow to materialize.
As a cash buyer, I’m trying to be patient. I’m also searching for my unicorn spec.

Generally used car buyers are more concerned about condition and price. This doesn't mean they'll buy an ugly car or one horribly optioned but it generally means they are not rigidly fixated on a, well, a unicorn.

Even in a down market you might not find a unicorn.

Also, one has to be quick. Back in early 2009 -- in the midst of a down turn -- I decided I wanted to get a new Porsche Cayman S. I had a 2006 GTO for a trade in. In good condition, never abused, just short of 50K miles.

Researched the used GTO market and got a price. Waited a week or so then visited the Porsche dealer that had a new 2008 Cayman S I wanted. A bit of a stumbling block is the trade in value the dealer came up with was lower by about $150 than I had come up with. The used car market was sinking that fast.

The flip side is the dealer had marked the Cayman down by $12,000. Yep, $12,000! List was $62,600, and I bought it for $52,600. (911 Cabs were discounted $30K. Was a real down turn.)

There's more. Four weeks later my new Cayman S was hit -- another driver lost control in the rain and smashed into my car while I was stopped to make a right hand turn. The Cayman was (after several weeks) declared a total loss.

Bought the car early April 2009. Accident happened 4 weeks later in early May. A week or so into June I finally received all the insurance money from the at fault driver's insurance and also by that time had sold the Cayman at a salvage titled car auction and had that check.

(How I ended up with the Cayman S with a salvage title is a long story. But it worked out for me.)

Before I found and bought the Cayman there were a number around. Just so happened the Cayman S I found was in Speed Yellow, was nicely optioned, including Sports Chrono, and a 6-speed manual with black leather interior.

But when I re-entered the car market to find another Cayman they were almost all gone! The ones left while these were unicorns they were ugly ones. Ugly in that they were ordered for the track by wanna be podium winners which meant the cars were bare of options even to the point of lacking A/C! I wanted a daily driver/road car, not some hot box track thing.

I did find a couple of Boxsters but I had owned a Boxster since 2002 and still had it. I wanted a Cayman S.

But found none.

Ended up buying a low miles (<10K) pristine 2003 Porsche 996 Turbo. As I said pristine, documented servicing, and with a 2 year/100K mile CPO warranty. And at a good price. Less than 1/2 the $119,000 sticker price the car sold for back in 2003.

[BlkGS]

To be honest, I think this is it, especially for collector type cars.

Cars have become a thing similar to fine art, they're tax shelters for the rich. Not quite as big of a.mo ey laundering dump, but getting there

Add in that it's easier than ever for foreigners to buy American collector cars, and at a HUGE discount to what they'd be in their local markets. The number of cars.exported because of a site like BaT is staggering.

There's also a lot of cash buyers out there who are just like you, waiting for the bottom to fall.out that isn't coming. And don't forget, cars are a durable asset that will increase in value with inflation. Your cash only becomes less and less valuable. That's another reason that the rich have been buying up a lot of cars as a hedge against inflation.

That said, a lot of people.lookongnfor a unicorn spec are never going to be satisfied, because their spec in many cases doesn't exist anymore. I see it all the time with Corvettes. People want a specific color, year, interior, and option combo, but also low miles and one owner. Guess what, those are all now either owned by people that it was their unicorn spec and bought 5-10 years ago and will only.sell.for a HUGE premium, or they got bought, driven, resold, driven more, etc and now they're not low mile one owner cars.

All that to say, patience is a virtue, but the active bird gets the worm. If you see the car you want, move quickly, aggressively, and with little regard to budget or what "you think" it should cost. Because the value of a collector car is going up every day as the buying power of the dollar goes down due to inflation.

[tom2021]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

To be honest, I think this is it, especially for collector type cars.

Cars have become a thing similar to fine art, they're tax shelters for the rich. Not quite as big of a.mo ey laundering dump, but getting there

Add in that it's easier than ever for foreigners to buy American collector cars, and at a HUGE discount to what they'd be in their local markets. The number of cars.exported because of a site like BaT is staggering.

There's also a lot of cash buyers out there who are just like you, waiting for the bottom to fall.out that isn't coming. And don't forget, cars are a durable asset that will increase in value with inflation. Your cash only becomes less and less valuable. That's another reason that the rich have been buying up a lot of cars as a hedge against inflation.

I concur.
I followed BaT auctions recently. You have to see it to believe it.
A lot of people have ton of cash in their hands.

[chassis]

I agree, if you're looking for normal, look around. For desirable cars like an M3.

In general terms, used car prices are softening. Read Cox Automotive's news releases on their website.

[Alfisti]

I've been surprised how firm the enthusiast market has held ground, varies by make and model but in general it's been surprisingly robust. I THINK I can sell my 997 cab for what I bought it for in April 2022which was the ABSOLIUTE WORST TIME TO BUY. But prices seem to be firm.

[Mavus]

cash is trash right now

inflation is up 40-50% over the last 5y

I can tell you first hand garages and barns are full of cars that folks bought over the last 5-6y. One of my friends has six Porshes.

Buy asap as close of a spec as you can live with and then mod it if you must. It will be harder and harder to find unique pampered high performance cars at a decent price. If you find it offer the asking price and even then somebody may offer more.

[murderspice]

Until they make a cool EV, this is all we’ve got.

[gilberjj]

Originally Posted by Mavus

cash is trash right now

inflation is up 40-50% over the last 5y

I can tell you first hand garages and barns are full of cars that folks bought over the last 5-6y. One of my friends has six Porshes.

Buy asap as close of a spec as you can live with and then mod it if you must. It will be harder and harder to find unique pampered high performance cars at a decent price. If you find it offer the asking price and even then somebody may offer more.

Cash is TRASH?!?!? I've never heard that before...
My income checking is paying 6% and an 11 month CD is at 4.1%... I think that'll hold value just fine for now.
Cash isn't an investment, and it shouldn't be viewed as such.

[Mavus]

Originally Posted by gilberjj

Cash is TRASH?!?!? I've never heard that before...
My income checking is paying 6% and an 11 month CD is at 4.1%... I think that'll hold value just fine for now.
Cash isn't an investment, and it shouldn't be viewed as such.

In this environment with high inflation purchasing pwr of $ is decreasing.

[x622]

Originally Posted by gilberjj

Cash is TRASH?!?!? I've never heard that before...
My income checking is paying 6% and an 11 month CD is at 4.1%... I think that'll hold value just fine for now.
Cash isn't an investment, and it shouldn't be viewed as such.

Question for you: You have $100k in 2019 how do you feel?

Now you have 100k in 2024, how much does that 100k get you now?

4.1 on a 6 mo t bill ain't gonna make up that purchasing power loss.

[dgoldenz]

Originally Posted by x622

Question for you: You have $100k in 2019 how do you feel?

Now you have 100k in 2024, how much does that 100k get you now?

4.1 on a 6 mo t bill ain't gonna make up that purchasing power loss.

But also did the government give you a free $40k in between? Might be relevant because now you have $140k at 4.1. lol

[BlkGS]

I think you guys are missing the point of the "cash is trash" comment

The longer you hold that money, the less it buys you, because you might make 6% on it in the bank, but the car you want to buy is going up by 10-15% every year.

Enthusiast cars, especially ones that are more than just 2 seaters, are gonna keep going up in value because they're so underrepresented in the new market, and the used ones are just better than the new ones in a LOT of cases. Couple that with a lot less people commuting to work every day, they're more likely to live with a somewhat compromised vehicle vs something practical and comfortable. Plus with YouTube, there's no "secret cool cars" anymore. Everything remotely cool that a lot of people forgot about or didn't know about is getting blasted out by multiple channels driving prices of them up.

[x622]

Originally Posted by dgoldenz

But also did the government give you a free $40k in between? Might be relevant because now you have $140k at 4.1. lol

No, I didn't have a bunch of w2 employees to take advantage of the "free money from the government" programs.

[dgoldenz]

Originally Posted by x622

No, I didn't have a bunch of w2 employees to take advantage of the "free money from the government" programs.

Unfortunate. I don’t have any w2 employees either but us self employed folk got the hookup.

[Donatello.]

It finally started to correct a few months ago. It's going to take longer than any of us with common sense want, but it will happen.

How much it corrects is anyone's guess.

[Donatello.]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

I think you guys are missing the point of the "cash is trash" comment

The longer you hold that money, the less it buys you, because you might make 6% on it in the bank, but the car you want to buy is going up by 10-15% every year.

Enthusiast cars, especially ones that are more than just 2 seaters, are gonna keep going up in value because they're so underrepresented in the new market, and the used ones are just better than the new ones in a LOT of cases. Couple that with a lot less people commuting to work every day, they're more likely to live with a somewhat compromised vehicle vs something practical and comfortable. Plus with YouTube, there's no "secret cool cars" anymore. Everything remotely cool that a lot of people forgot about or didn't know about is getting blasted out by multiple channels driving prices of them up.

You are ignoring history.

What goes up, always comes down...

[Donatello.]

Originally Posted by tom2021

I concur.
I followed BaT auctions recently. You have to see it to believe it.
A lot of people have ton of cash in their hands.

C&B, BAT, Mecum, BJ, etc are not to be used for the real world. That bs is all rich people swinging their junk around.

[Donatello.]

Originally Posted by RockCrusher

Generally used car buyers are more concerned about condition and price. This doesn't mean they'll buy an ugly car or one horribly optioned but it generally means they are not rigidly fixated on a, well, a unicorn.

Even in a down market you might not find a unicorn.

Also, one has to be quick. Back in early 2009 -- in the midst of a down turn -- I decided I wanted to get a new Porsche Cayman S. I had a 2006 GTO for a trade in. In good condition, never abused, just short of 50K miles.

Researched the used GTO market and got a price. Waited a week or so then visited the Porsche dealer that had a new 2008 Cayman S I wanted. A bit of a stumbling block is the trade in value the dealer came up with was lower by about $150 than I had come up with. The used car market was sinking that fast.

The flip side is the dealer had marked the Cayman down by $12,000. Yep, $12,000! List was $62,600, and I bought it for $52,600. (911 Cabs were discounted $30K. Was a real down turn.)

There's more. Four weeks later my new Cayman S was hit -- another driver lost control in the rain and smashed into my car while I was stopped to make a right hand turn. The Cayman was (after several weeks) declared a total loss.

Bought the car early April 2009. Accident happened 4 weeks later in early May. A week or so into June I finally received all the insurance money from the at fault driver's insurance and also by that time had sold the Cayman at a salvage titled car auction and had that check.

(How I ended up with the Cayman S with a salvage title is a long story. But it worked out for me.)

Before I found and bought the Cayman there were a number around. Just so happened the Cayman S I found was in Speed Yellow, was nicely optioned, including Sports Chrono, and a 6-speed manual with black leather interior.

But when I re-entered the car market to find another Cayman they were almost all gone! The ones left while these were unicorns they were ugly ones. Ugly in that they were ordered for the track by wanna be podium winners which meant the cars were bare of options even to the point of lacking A/C! I wanted a daily driver/road car, not some hot box track thing.

I did find a couple of Boxsters but I had owned a Boxster since 2002 and still had it. I wanted a Cayman S.

But found none.

Ended up buying a low miles (<10K) pristine 2003 Porsche 996 Turbo. As I said pristine, documented servicing, and with a 2 year/100K mile CPO warranty. And at a good price. Less than 1/2 the $119,000 sticker price the car sold for back in 2003.

To be fair, $150 difference on your trade is not anything that should make you walk away if that is the car you want.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

You are ignoring history.

What goes up, always comes down...

Not always. Things that are in scarce supply don't. And moreover, when you've got massive inflation reducing your buying power, that doesn't help.