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      04-08-2020, 10:02 PM   #4577
dsad1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Artemis View Post
Over here in Europe, a couple of countries decided to experiment with 'herd immunity' for COVID-19 (The Netherlands, the UK and Sweden). The choice sparked controversy (gambling with people's lives + straining the healthcare system). In the meantime, The Netherlands and the UK have mainly peddled back and tightened COVID-19 measures. Sweden still continues the human experiment, but considers to tighten measures (see here).

Recently, a US model predicted that the UK will be the worst-hit European nation (see here) (the UK was one of the last European countries to impose COVID-19 measures; in the meantime its prime minister Boris Johnson is treated in the intensive care unit of a London hospital for COVID-19 and his pregnant girlfriend is also weathering the disease). Sweden has the highest death rate of Scandinavia.

In my previous comment I had included a hyperlink to a recent article written by an epidemiologist working in chronic disease (Sydney, Australia):
"Here's Why Herd Immunity Won't Save Us From The COVID-19 Pandemic
Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz - 30 March 2020[/B] | Source: here
It's hard to predict things in a pandemic. The situation changes so much on a daily basis that everything you thought you knew last week is wrong by the end of the day. Things are changing so fast that even the solid certainties that we thought we were sure of – the reproductive rate, the symptoms of the infection, the key to making a good quarantine – are suspect and need to be re-evaluated.
But among all this uncertainty, I can say for sure that there is one thing that I would never have seen coming: the discussion about herd immunity. It is so out of the blue that the first time a journalist asked my opinion on whether it was effective for the coronavirus, I literally laughed out loud because I assumed they were joking.
And yet, here we are. Countless articles and think-pieces on the COVID-19 virus are making the argument that, albeit potentially risky, achieving herd immunity could be one response to our crisis. Many of them frame herd immunity as a preventive strategy that may stall the tidal wave of disease so many are predicting.
All of this is simply nonsense. Herd immunity without a vaccine is by definition not a preventative measure.
Let me explain.
Herd immunity is an epidemiological concept that describes the state where a population – usually of people – is sufficiently immune to a disease that the infection will not spread within that group. In other words, enough people can't get the disease – either through vaccination or natural immunity – that the people who are vulnerable are protected.
For example, let's think about mumps. Mumps is a very infectious disease that, while relatively benign, is very uncomfortable and sometimes causes nasty life-long complications. It's also vaccine-preventable, with a highly effective vaccine that has made the disease incredibly rare in the modern age.
Mumps has a basic reproductive rate (R0) of 10-12, which means that in a population which is entirely susceptible – meaning no one is immune to the virus – every person who is infected will pass the disease on to 10-12 people.
This means that without vaccination roughly 95 percent of the population gets infected over time. But even with something that is this infectious, there are still some people – 5 percent of the population – who don't get sick, because once everyone else is immune there's no one to catch the disease from.
We can increase that number by vaccinating, because vaccination makes people immune to infection, but it also stops infected people passing on the disease to everyone that they otherwise would. If we can get enough people immune to the disease, then it will stop spreading in the population.
And that's herd immunity, in a nutshell.
For mumps, you need 92 percent of the population to be immune for the disease to stop spreading entirely. This is what's known as the herd immunity threshold. COVID-19 is, fortunately, much less infectious than mumps, with an estimated R0 of roughly 3.
With this number, the proportion of people who need to be infected is lower but still high, sitting at around 70 percent of the entire population.
Which brings us to why herd immunity could never be considered a preventative measure.
If 70 percent of your population is infected with a disease, it is by definition not prevention. How can it be? Most of the people in your country are sick! And the hopeful nonsense that you can reach that 70 percent by just infecting young people is simply absurd. If only young people are immune, you'd have clusters of older people with no immunity at all, making it incredibly risky for anyone over a certain age to leave their house lest they get infected, forever.
It's also worth thinking about the repercussions of this disastrous scenario – the best estimates put COVID-19 infection fatality rate at around 0.5-1 percent. If 70 percent of an entire population gets sick, that means that between 0.35-0.7 percent of everyone in a country could die, which is a catastrophic outcome.
With something like 10 percent of all infections needing to be hospitalised, you'd also see an enormous number of people very sick, which has huge implications for the country as well.
The sad fact is that herd immunity just isn't a solution to our pandemic woes. Yes, it may eventually happen anyway, but hoping that it will save us all is just not realistic. The time to discuss herd immunity is when we have a vaccine developed, and not one second earlier, because at that point we will be able to really stop the epidemic in its tracks.
Until we have a vaccine, anyone talking about herd immunity as a preventative strategy for COVID-19 is simply wrong. Fortunately, there are other ways of preventing infections from spreading, which all boil down to avoiding people who are sick.
So stay home, stay safe, and practice physical distancing as much as possible."
We have multiple studies that show 50% of infected will be asymptomatic, so if 70% were to be infected half of them wouldn't feel a thing, and another sizable percentage will only have mild symptoms.

Sweden will be a good test, their deaths have ramped up, but their new cases seemed to have slowed down. The real question is, how are we going to compare to Sweden in the fall. While we are in a second wave, they might be done with it.
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      04-08-2020, 10:08 PM   #4578
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Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
We have multiple studies that show 50% of infected will be asymptomatic, so if 70% were to be infected half of them wouldn't feel a thing, and another sizable percentage will only have mild symptoms.

Sweden will be a good test, their deaths have ramped up, but their new cases seemed to have slowed down. The real question is, how are we going to compare to Sweden in the fall. While we are in a second wave, they might be done with it.
There is but the most tenuous of datasets to suggest that 50% are asymptomatic. I already explained with links a few pages ago that asymptomatic cases may not develop significant immunity. I bet 50% of people over age 50 are certainly not asymptomatic. Just as the link Artemis posted above says - if you have a bunch of young people with weak immunity you’re setting up a bad situation for those over 40 or 50 probably.
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      04-08-2020, 10:10 PM   #4579
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Originally Posted by rebekahb View Post
Why are they living paycheck to paycheck anyway? Are we talking about seniors who may have never had a job where they could bank on a great retirement? My grandfather would have never been affected by this financially if he were still alive. Are we talking about those that never say no and always trying to keep up with the Joneses? Or are we talking about single moms who have minimal education who would live paycheck to paycheck no matter how great the economy is.
Beats me, you touched on a lot of reasons though.

Strange, I kept hearing that it will trickle down and a rising tide lifts all boats, not just the shareholder class that saw their gains inflated by buybacks. Doesn’t seem like that’s what happened after 2008.

I’m no economist so I’ll stop there, but clearly we’ve been living on the edge as a society for a long time.
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      04-08-2020, 10:14 PM   #4580
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Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
There is but the most tenuous of datasets to suggest that 50% are asymptomatic. I already explained with links a few pages ago that asymptomatic cases may not develop significant immunity. I bet 50% of people over age 50 are certainly not asymptomatic. Just as the link Artemis posted above says - if you have a bunch of young people with weak immunity you’re setting up a bad situation for those over 40 or 50 probably.
We have more data that suggests asymptomatic to be 50% than we do of asymptomatic developing weak immunity. You won't agree with the first because of lack of data, but agree with the second with even less data.
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      04-08-2020, 10:21 PM   #4581
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Originally Posted by dsad1 View Post
We have more data that suggests asymptomatic to be 50% than we do of asymptomatic developing weak immunity. You won't agree with the first because of lack of data, but agree with the second with even less data.
I’m afraid I disagree with your conclusions based on what’s available and how it’s been gathered. Your track record in the thread doesn’t look too good to me, so I’ll stick with my interpretation until we get more data to clarify.

I’d note that almost every major country in the world seems to agree that “herd immunity” isn’t a legit strategy the first time around here.
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      04-08-2020, 10:21 PM   #4582
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Covid believe to prevent red blood cells from caring oxygen thought the body

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-...hyrin/11938173


Blood type might influence it as well if study is accurate

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20031096v2
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      04-08-2020, 10:23 PM   #4583
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Originally Posted by NormanConquest View Post
Covid believe to prevent red blood cells from caring oxygen thought the body

https://chemrxiv.org/articles/COVID-...hyrin/11938173


Blood type might influence it as well if study is accurate

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....11.20031096v2
Yeah I posted that first link yesterday or the day before. The second, we’ll have to wait and see, could be true but there may be other factors at play as well. I’m definitely not discounting it.

This is why I hope to put off getting this virus for as long as possible. We will understand how to treat it so much better in a few months, even without vaccines or novel antivirals.
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      04-08-2020, 10:26 PM   #4584
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Originally Posted by chris719 View Post
I’m afraid I disagree with your conclusions based on what’s available and how it’s been gathered. Your track record in the thread doesn’t look too good to me, so I’ll stick with my interpretation until we get more data to clarify.
Considering how quickly these models are dropping, my track record seems to look quite well. You laughed when I said it will be a stretch to get anywhere near 100k deaths over a weak ago. It was clear the numbers were not adding up, yet you kept stating "exponential growth".
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      04-08-2020, 10:30 PM   #4585
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Considering how quickly these models are dropping, my track record seems to look quite well. You laughed when I said it will be a stretch to get anywhere near 100k deaths over a weak ago. It was clear the numbers were not adding up, yet you kept stating "exponential growth".
Yeah we’re gonna exceed 100k deaths in the US this year. Mark it down. This isn’t even halftime. I’ll be very happy to admit I was wrong if not.
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      04-08-2020, 10:40 PM   #4586
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Originally Posted by NickyC View Post
It's gotta happen.
As long as the relief is extended to tenants on a mandatory basis and not voluntary. If voluntary, lots of landlords will take advantage of the relief but leave their tenants hanging. They won't be evicted, but of course they will be taken to court and have their credit ruined once it's over.
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      04-08-2020, 11:03 PM   #4587
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Emboldened by the shredding of the constitution, and the willingness of millions of people to give up all freedoms for the failed promises of safety, the enemy has been busy.

If we continue on this course the violence will begin soon, the gun confiscations will commence, and that’s when you know the American experiment is dead as all hell will break loose.

They’ve got it all now, the guns are next.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ns/2943913001/
The most disappointing thing about these laments by various gun nuts is that the whole US gubmint vs people's militia scenario will never actually happen - I would really like to see the "real patriots'" AR-15s in action against Strikers and precision bombs.
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      04-08-2020, 11:06 PM   #4588
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I agree with you NickyC. Think positive.
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      04-09-2020, 01:41 AM   #4589
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      04-09-2020, 02:01 AM   #4590
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What's your deal with huge images if all you have to do is add the link to a tweet?
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      04-09-2020, 02:27 AM   #4591
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I'll see if I can find it again. They could be wrong as I said, but it was a pretty informed exchange and the poster seemed to understand the pharmacokinetics.
I couldn't find the higher quality thread that I had took those numbers from, but found something similar or better:

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-599/

The first 20 minutes or so discuss Ivermectin. They have Doris Cully speak about it and discuss the paper. She worked on the development of Ivermectin at Merck.

TLDR; it's a longshot due to the dose needed. They never even tested larger doses in animals because it's very efficacious at low doses as an anthelmintic.
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      04-09-2020, 02:36 AM   #4592
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Regarding the substance of The Gateway Pundit's claim: it takes _years_ for CDC to finalize mortality data. Right now the most recent report is for US mortality in 2018. And right where it does publish mortality for the recent weeks, CDC says: "Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death".
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      04-09-2020, 02:46 AM   #4593
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Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
Regarding the substance of The Gateway Pundit's claim: it takes _years_ for CDC to finalize mortality data. Right now the most recent report is for US mortality in 2018. And right where it does publish mortality for the recent weeks, CDC says: "Previous analyses of 2015–2016 provisional data completeness have found that completeness is lower in the first few weeks following the date of death".
Yeah, even if all-cause mortality went go down as a country (because no one is doing anything) that isn't even relevant.
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      04-09-2020, 03:51 AM   #4594
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I suspect anglo gets his facts from memes. First the hydoxychloroquine one, now this one.
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      04-09-2020, 04:25 AM   #4595
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Originally Posted by ynguldyn View Post
The most disappointing thing about these laments by various gun nuts is that the whole US gubmint vs people's militia scenario will never actually happen - I would really like to see the "real patriots'" AR-15s in action against Strikers and precision bombs.
Taliban, drops mic and walks away.
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      04-09-2020, 04:48 AM   #4596
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https://www.businessinsider.com/home...-better-2020-4
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      04-09-2020, 06:46 AM   #4597
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And I'm also gonna leave this here for those unwilling to click on the impeachment thread.

:bs:

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      04-09-2020, 07:01 AM   #4598
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And I'm also gonna leave this here for those unwilling to click on the impeachment thread.

:bs:

"A source familiar with the report"

You guys... Surely this unnamed source is real, just like all the other unnamed sources that leak to the media in an attempt to damage and undermine the Trump admin...

The pentagon disputes the reporting:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/p...-last-november

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/def...-reports-false

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/pentagon-s...8zMvSOnZNibonx

This too:
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