Stock market tips and experiences

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

It’s as if the Democrats are trying to cancel Musk by getting him removed from Tesla…that’s what the conspiracy theorist in me thinks.

It has nothing to do with politics. This is all Elon's doing and his ever expanding ego. Seems to happen to many of the ultra wealthy and famous. They think they are the authority on everything because of their social and financial status. It's really sad to Elon going down this path as I thought he was smarter than this.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

... I fired him and moved all my money to Vanguard. The value of my account skyrocketed between 2013 and now.

The advent of low-fee vehicles like those pioneered by Vanguard, combined with the free money we've enjoyed for the last 20 years made it virtually impossible for passive investors not to meet/beat the S&P 500 during that time. However, we have entered a new era and it's going to be very difficult to make sizable returns by index investing for a while. How long? Who knows for sure, but it's looking like a minimum of 5 years to me, and could easily be a decade.

In this environment, stock-pickers are going to become more important, and a strong investment team that can find returns w/o taking too much risk is something that everyone should consider. Actively-managed ETFs are one way to take advantage of their expertise. Another is Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs), who are fiduciaries, which means that they have a legal obligation to act in your best interests, not their company's. Everyone has access to RIAs through their brokerage house now. Schwab, for example, has an entire network of them and if you're a Schwab customer their services are available to you.

Will using an active manager cost you a bit? Yeah, it will, typically 1-1.5%. Will it pay off over passive investing? In this evironment I think it will.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

It has nothing to do with politics. This is all Elon's doing and his ever expanding ego.

Uh, yeah. Sure it doesn't.

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Uh, yeah. Sure it doesn't.

If the last 6 years have taught us nothing else, they’ve taught us that subversive forces are at play.
Did you jump into AAPL at 130?

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

Did you jump into AAPL at 130?

Sort of. Back in mid-Oct I sold three 1/20/23 AAPL Put contracts at a strike price of $135. I collected $6.64/share in premium, so roughly $2k. Those will be assigned to me if the share price is equal to or less than $129.36 on the day of expiration, or perhaps earlier if it goes even lower than that.

So, I'll either be an owner of 300 shares at a price of $129.36 on 1/21, or I'll have pocketed $2k for the privilege of waiting for it to get there. Of course, if the price is $120 at that time I won't be too thrilled, but I have been consistent in saying that I'm a buyer at $130 even though I think it could go down 5-10% more than that.

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Sort of. Back in mid-Oct I sold three 1/20/23 AAPL Put contracts at a strike price of $135. I collected $6.64/share in premium, so roughly $2k. Those will be assigned to me if the share price is equal to or less than $129.36 on the day of expiration, or perhaps earlier if it goes even lower than that.

So, I'll either be an owner 300 shares at a price of $129.36 on 1/21, or I'll have pocketed $2k for the privilege of waiting for it to get there. Of course, if the price is $120 at that time I won't be too thrilled, but I have been consistent in saying that I'm a buyer at $130 even though I think it could go down 5-10% more than that.

Nice, I never messed with options. I always buy at market and dollar cost average down, 2xing my position roughly 4-5% each move down, never pushing above 80% of my margin. I got in at 135.03@375 shares. Today I’m at 133.78@570 shares. Plenty left before hitting margin. Not a really sophisticated strategy but seems to work ok.
I did buy a $50k 6 month CD through Schwab at 4.65% yesterday. That’s the emergency fund though, usually sits in a savings account.

[XKxRome0ox]

so... when is a good time to buy TSLA shares?

[floridaorange]

Any tips on using your stock losses against your taxes? If I understand correctly, it's $3,000 you can use to write off each year basically until you've arrived at your total stock loss amount.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by floridaorange

Any tips on using your stock losses against your taxes? If I understand correctly, it's $3,000 you can use to write off each year basically until you've arrived at your total stock loss amount.

https://www.irs.gov/taxtopics/tc409

Limit on the Deduction and Carryover of Losses
If your capital losses exceed your capital gains, the amount of the excess loss that you can claim to lower your income is the lesser of $3,000 ($1,500 if married filing separately) or your total net loss shown on line 16 of Schedule D (Form 1040). Claim the loss on line 7 of your Form 1040 or Form 1040-SR. If your net capital loss is more than this limit, you can carry the loss forward to later years. You may use the Capital Loss Carryover Worksheet found in Publication 550, Investment Income and Expenses or in the Instructions for Schedule D (Form 1040)PDF to figure the amount you can carry forward.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by floridaorange

Any tips on using your stock losses against your taxes? If I understand correctly, it's $3,000 you can use to write off each year basically until you've arrived at your total stock loss amount.

Another thing to consider is that, in any one tax year, you can offset both short- and long-term capital gains with short- and long-term capital losses that are realized in that same year. Selling your losing positions to offset gains in this way is called tax loss harvesting. Of course, in order to "harvest" the loss you have to take it (i.e., have a realized loss), which isn't necessarily the most exciting thing to do, but it can have a dramatic effect on your tax situation.

For example, you have a realized $10k short-term gain and you also have a position that has an $8k loss. Let's say the loss is in an EFT like SMH and while you are bullish on semis, you don't like the idea of paying short-term capital gains tax on that $10k profit. So, you sell the SMH position, taking the $8k loss, and now you only have a $2k profit subject to tax. Simultaneously, you reestablish your bullish position in semis by buying a different, but essentially equivalent, ETF. Say, SOXX. That allows you remain in the market and benefit if your bullish thesis is correct, and not give Uncle Sam more than you have to.

You can also do this with individual stocks, but you have to wait 30 days from the date you sold a losing position in a stock to repurchase it. Otherwise, it's what they call a "wash sale", and you don't get to count the prior sale as a capital loss. I did some of this earlier in the month, selling positions in ASTR (bet on this one went bad when their 2nd launch blew up; ooops!), NVTS, and AMZN. I'm done with ASTR, but am long-term bullish on NVTS and AMZN, so I'll lwait until the end of January and start buying back into those. That will avoid triggering a wash sale rule, and I'm not too worried about missing a lot of upside in either of those two between now and then.

Note that I'm oversimplifying somewhat here. The rules are kinda complicated and you shouldn't follow my advice. I am neither a stock guru nor a tax accountant. But hopefully you get the idea and maybe can take advantage of it with the help of a professional.

[whyzee125]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

You don't know anyone who has made money in stocks? Sounds like you don't know the right people.

I know people who have made money, but not people who have to make a thread about where to invest. I know people who are in the finance world who have done quite well but your average joes who aren't in that arena never win.

My point is, if you have to ask, you should just go with the safe bet.

[tom2021]

How low will Tesla stock go down? Under 100?

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by tom2021

How low will Tesla stock go down? Under 100?

I think it’s massively overvalued even where it is currently at, but the greed has to set in sooner than later. Retail investors are getting squeezed out, margin calls left and right probably. Institutions are going to come in and chomp at the bits. I say $100 is floor, still overrated though.
I don’t understand why people who make the argument that Tesla will fly high because they are so far ahead in terms of margin. What does it matter that GM and the rest make less margin right now, they’ll get there. What matters the consumer buys the others cars and that is what will be responsible for market share and ultimately profit erosion for Tesla.
Where are all the Tesla proponents? They’ve been awfully quiet since this stock started taking a dump.

[2008M36MT]

Bought another 175@126.70. My cost basis is 775@131.95.

[XKxRome0ox]

bought a handful of TSLA shares at $112
will sit on these and add to it whenever i can

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

It's this kind of inside the box thinking that have some investors miss the boat on Tesla, apple, and many other stocks. The "it already ran up and its best days are behind it so I will avoid it" kind of thinking. I bought Tesla when it was 400 something dollars and rode it up to 1200 at peak. It has fallen from those graces like many stocks, but it is one of my best performing recent buys. Why did I even bother when Tesla already had a big run and the new challengers (lucid etc) were on the rise and the old challengers were on the rise (ford, bmw)? Because Tesla continues to stay ahead in software and other tech aspects, including self-driving. It also remains imo the most desirable, attractive electric car maker (model S especially). Their margins are impressive for an EV maker. US and world investment/subsidization in EVs and supporting infrastructure is growing. I can't guarantee 2000 a share (especially since I don't know the time horizon that is desired for) but I remain convicted on their stock despite competition.

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

"No matter which way you cut it, competition will increase exponentially, and I believe TSLA's market and competitive advantage will erode in time which will reflect on its market price."

Assumptions and inside the box thinking. Counterpoint: Tesla's competitors may not succeed in any of their product offerings. Their competitive advantage may persist and its stock price may increase. The market for electric cars may expand, and thus Tesla's growth continues. Further they could land self-driving cars or a taxi fleet, or its humanoid robot, which could be windfalls. Or one of the many other things Tesla could do of which we have no idea.

Neither of us knows how this will go, and someone's unique financial situation and financial horizon have to be factored in

You were saying?

Maybe you should consider balancing out your perspective with some of that "inside the box thinking". I'll concede that most of the stock drop was unforeseeable and unrelated to the company's performance, but demand seems to becoming an issue and in my opinion will continue to be an issue as competition continues to increase. Notwithstanding, this stock was insanely overpriced and should have adjusted down regardless of any headwinds (as it now is).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla...171844746.html

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

Notwithstanding, this stock was insanely overpriced and should have adjusted down regardless of any headwinds (as it now is).

One does have to wonder. I mean, on what planet is TSLA the most valuable automaker? They made 1.4 Million cars last year, out of a global total of 75 M or so. Even if they could continue to grow at 50% per year their fraction of total sales wouldn't justify that valuation several years into the future. And with competition ramping up and the coming global recession there's a lot of well-placed skepticism about that ramp, along with the margin pressure that they'll face.

Margin pressure, apparently, is already here based on what I've been hearing about year-end price reductions. I suspect that we'll start hearing whispers of production cuts soon as inventories build; when you don't have dealers, guess who carries the cost of inventory? Is $100 the floor? Maybe not.

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

One does have to wonder. I mean, on what planet is TSLA the most valuable automaker? They made 1.4 Million cars last year, out of a global total of 75 M or so. Even if they could continue to grow at 50% per year their fraction of total sales wouldn't justify that valuation several years into the future. And with competition ramping up and the coming global recession there's a lot of well-placed skepticism about that ramp, along with the margin pressure that they'll face.

Margin pressure, apparently, is already here based on what I've been hearing about year-end price reductions. I suspect that we'll start hearing whispers of production cuts soon as inventories build; when you don't have dealers, guess who carries the cost of inventory? Is $100 the floor? Maybe not.

That’s real inside the box thinking, antzcrashing or maybe Cathie Wood will need to enlighten us. Those are the common sense questions any common sense investor should ask. Tesla’s market share erosion as a car manufacturer is inevitable, so hopefully Tesla as a “technology” company continues to evolve at an astronomical pace, because their vehicles sure haven’t. Hopefully the Cybertruck or their big rigs answer their prayers, because Tesla hasn’t made anything innovative in over 5 years. A Plaid? Wow a large battery to make the car go faster. How novel. The build quality sucks, the interior quality, sucks, the software, sucks. I bet 100% of Tesla consumers would take Apple CarPlay over a the sights and sounds of burning wood.
Will Tesla rebound? I’m sure it will. Will it ever justify a 50+PER, surely not.

[Tyga11]

Amazing how quickly negative sentiment…I was a huge Tesla bull and only own a fraction of what I had even 2 months ago.

The deliveries are an issue. I don’t see this turning around anytime soon even with Twitter overhang being lifted. My advise would be to get the hell out

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by e90335e36m3

That’s real inside the box thinking, antzcrashing or maybe Cathie Wood will need to enlighten us. Those are the common sense questions any common sense investor should ask. Tesla’s market share erosion as a car manufacturer is inevitable, so hopefully Tesla as a “technology” company continues to evolve at an astronomical pace, because their vehicles sure haven’t. Hopefully the Cybertruck or their big rigs answer their prayers, because Tesla hasn’t made anything innovative in over 5 years. A Plaid? Wow a large battery to make the car go faster. How novel. The build quality sucks, the interior quality, sucks, the software, sucks. I bet 100% of Tesla consumers would take Apple CarPlay over a the sights and sounds of burning wood.
Will Tesla rebound? I’m sure it will. Will it ever justify a 50+PER, surely not.

The Tesla brand is becoming stale. I am seeing very cool EVs on the road (namely Kia) and more and more teslas are becoming Ubers. It’s not cool to own a Tesla anymore. They need a fresh redesign.

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

The Tesla brand is becoming stale. I am seeing very cool EVs on the road (namely Kia) and more and more teslas are becoming Ubers. It’s not cool to own a Tesla anymore. They need a fresh redesign.

I agree with you completely, however, you weren’t saying that 6 months ago, what changed your mind regarding the design? The design hasn’t been cool in years.

Musk made an uncool/stale design even more uncool with his antics. He is brilliant though, so it’s difficult to count Tesla completely out on that account.

[chassis]

Cyber truck will be squashed by F-150 Lightning. Ford will let no company trespass on its franchise.

Semi is a nothing burger revenue- and profit-wise. A dozen or more companies are ahead of Tesla in Class 5-8 eCVs. Added to this, the market size (units) in Class 4-8 is less than 10% of the market size of light vehicles (Classes 1-3). CV customers (large fleets) buy reliability, total lifecycle cost and support and not tennis shoe wearing goofball California personalities.

The competition level is rising and TSLA is not equipped financially to weather the storm. Market cap does not equal liquidity to fuel product portfolio investment. VW, Stellantis, Toyota and Ford will slowly surround Tesla and fence it into a corner.