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      09-01-2021, 10:46 PM   #1
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Chip shortage: accelerate or delay transition to EVs?

With the chip shortage not abating, and auto production at less than full output, what impact will this have on the very public statements of carmakers to transition to a EVs as a high proportion of their total production?

Do EVs have more chips, or fewer chips, than ICE vehicles?

Will the current chip situation speed up, or delay, the transition to EVs?

I have first hand real time inside information on production rates, and they are far from full output. The expectation is to be at less than full output until as late as 2023.

p.s. I searched the non-BMW section of the site and didn't find a similar topic before posting this one.
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      09-01-2021, 11:12 PM   #2
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I doubt it's going to change anything. Lots of movements to EVs is dictated by the governments in various countries.. they're not going to slow down over a chip shortage which is expected to be largely resolved by this time next year.
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      09-02-2021, 04:29 PM   #3
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Most of the chips in a car are used for safety and convenience features, so EVs should not be in a much different position than ICE cars.
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      09-02-2021, 06:23 PM   #4
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Don't we need to get all the diesel generators up and running to make the electricity too.
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      09-02-2021, 06:54 PM   #5
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No reason for the shortage to alter anything as production changes have to be built into production schedules years in advance. The EV movement will be advanced by better equipment, longer range and more efficient vehicles. The chip situation will be remedied and things will get back to normal.
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      09-02-2021, 11:02 PM   #6
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EV adoption is purely down to future battery tech and infrastructure. We are not anywhere near what is needed for mass adoption.
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      09-02-2021, 11:33 PM   #7
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I'm thinking the answer is in the allocation of available chips by the vehicle manufacturers. Traditional business practices would imply the allocation of chips would follow sales, but these days who knows.
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      09-07-2021, 10:15 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hellrotm View Post
EV adoption is purely down to future battery tech and infrastructure. We are not anywhere near what is needed for mass adoption.
Like "transition" is a given.
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      09-07-2021, 03:37 PM   #9
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Not likely to impact at all as we have a manufacturing plant in Malaysia and it is spread out in terms of the effect currently. On a side note, I believe there are some serious issues with battery degradation over time by comparison to ICE vehicles. I own 4 EVs and my 2 earlier model Teslas are showing some degradation. However, the effect is not fully known because after some software updates, my batteries range changed (for the better - surprising) to show a higher number.
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      09-07-2021, 05:51 PM   #10
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Some EVs are likely to dampen the impact of the chip shortage as they could use less chips than some of the legacy peers. For instance, Canoo will use half the number of chips.

It will likely come down to contracts if the various companies are relying on the same suppliers for chips. Probably supplying the big names first before the smaller EV players. I would imagine internally for the big players they are prioritizing trucks and SUVs for chip supplies than sedans or EVs.

If I had to guess and this supply constraint lasts for the next year or so it would likely delay EV adoption.
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      09-07-2021, 05:52 PM   #11
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Sunchips are good
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      09-07-2021, 10:00 PM   #12
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I don't think it's a question...it's already happening in a sense. You'll likely see faster acceleration to turbos and hybrids vs. EV...but it's not far off.

Look at Mercedes. They put a stop-sale on their MY2022 V8 cars due to supply shortage and now they are questioning if they should just skip ahead to putting V6s (turbo? hybrid) into those models a year ahead of schedule. Why produce something for just one-two more years at low volume when it would make more sense to accelerating future plans...I sadly think we'll see more manufactures following suite.
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      09-08-2021, 03:16 PM   #13
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      09-12-2021, 03:18 PM   #14
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I'm seeing articles suggesting ICE cars will be sold new to 2050 and beyond. I don't have a link, will post one next time an article like this comes around. The tone is that BEVs, hybrids and ICE will be the mix in the future.

A cliff event where the world becomes 100% EV seems unlikely to me.
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      09-12-2021, 03:32 PM   #15
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The chip shortage will be over in 18 months. I don't think it will change anything. ICE and EVs both need chips. The full switch to EVs is a generation or so away.
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      09-12-2021, 04:30 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M0J0 View Post
The chip shortage will be over in 18 months. I don't think it will change anything. ICE and EVs both need chips. The full switch to EVs is a generation or so away.
a human generation maybe. certainly not a car generation. my kids are 2 and 3 years old. when their kids start driving maybe EV's will be the default choice.
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      09-12-2021, 05:07 PM   #17
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Quote:
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a human generation maybe. certainly not a car generation. my kids are 2 and 3 years old. when their kids start driving maybe EV's will be the default choice.
By 2035 the majority of the cars that will be sold will be EV. That is not far off.
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      09-12-2021, 05:17 PM   #18
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Weíre screwed for years to come.
It takes time to build plants.

Raw materials come from China.
Most of chips come from China.

China is not a friend of the US.

Period.
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      09-12-2021, 05:25 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M0J0 View Post
By 2035 the majority of the cars that will be sold will be EV. That is not far off.
Thatís hilarious! Can you imagine how overwhelmed the power grid would be. Holly smokes, Commifornia canít even keep the power running now. They constantly have brown outs and beg the public to cutback on power usage.
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      09-12-2021, 09:18 PM   #20
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Thatís hilarious! Can you imagine how overwhelmed the power grid would be. Holly smokes, Commifornia canít even keep the power running now. They constantly have brown outs and beg the public to cutback on power usage.
Texas also has shortages. How dare those Texas fascists! They have 20 years to start ramping up more power. EVs also charge at night, not at peak hours when people are running their AC. This is why brownouts happen.

https://www.powermag.com/driving-cha...f-ev-adoption/
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      09-12-2021, 09:31 PM   #21
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Michigan has outages because of poor transmission infrastructure. Generating capacity isn't the problem. The utilities can't get the juice to the people.

It's like living in Ghana in the 18th century.
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      09-12-2021, 10:06 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M0J0 View Post
By 2035 the majority of the cars that will be sold will be EV. That is not far off.
That's the government's goal but nothing trumps consumer demand.

If people don't buy them, they will not be the majority of cars sold.

With that said, we have an EV in the garage and for an A-B daily driver mom car, it works better than a gas vehicle and that's what most people want.

I guess we will just see what happens in the next 20 years.
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