Native Floridians - your take on Milton?

[DrVenture]

My son lives in a new townhome on Tampa area - built to modern codes and hurricane standards.

We decided that he should install his shutters, turn off breakers to bottom level (garage, storage and foyer), and spend a couple nights in Orlando, just to be safe and not have the car flooded or be trapped by water.

Given everything about the storm's path, how might Orlando area be impacted? Asking because his mother is cranking up the anxiety machine and has him spooked about his plan.

My guess is that worse case scenario is that his hotel loses power for a bit. At this point, it looks like the storm will travel well South of Orlando.

[kscarrol]

Can’t speak to your Florida specific questions but your advice on shutters, electric, heading to Orlando are spot on. Having lived in New Orleans most of my life including Katrina, you don’t mess around with these storms. IMO if he could head even further north, I would do that. Keep the gas tank full, totally empty the refrigerator/get rid of any perishables, bring any important papers/photos with him. Nothing worse than coming home to a fridge ruined by spoiled food…

[X3 M40i Guy]

Native here. Depending on the strength of the storm, power may be lost in Orlando. He would certainly be better off than Tampa.

[RickFLM4]

Advice for Tampa prep and going to Orlando is good. Logically, Orlando will not have nearly the same impact as coastal areas because there is no storm surge in Orlando. Maybe power outage which can also lead to cell service being down. In general, get away from the coast when a storm is coming and Orlando is a good spot.

Also, kscarrol made some good suggestions and to those I would add have cash on hand, keep portable devices charged and have some water, food and snacks (and liquor if so inclined) on hand in Orlando. Before leaving get anything important out of storage on lower level and either bring it or move it to upper level. Tell him to make sure he calls or texts you as soon as he can once the storm passes. (Don’t panic if you can’t reach him during or right after storm.)

[F32Fleet]

I would go north of Tampa. Generally you want the storm to move parallel and on the backside of the rotation.

So if it's moving W-E then be on the North side. If it's moving S-N then be on the West side.

Maybe head to Gainesville or Tallahassee.

[DrVenture]

Thanks. Great advice. Much appreciated. Have done pretty much all of that. Except empty fridge. Will talk to him in the a.m. about that too.

Nothing of value on lower level, Just a few odds and ends on a shelving unit in storage. Nothing on floors. Our expectation is that Orlando could lose power, but should be safe. Already booked the room. Advised him to fill up as he enters Orlando area. Should only need about 2-3 gallons after traveling.

He has multiple power bricks and batteries all charged. He has cash (and full tank of gas) and will get more cash tomorrow. Shutters going up at 8:00 am - confirmed. Plans to bring water and dried snacks with him. Fortunately his electric is below ground and he is on same grid as nearby hospital. Hoping that helps.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by F32Fleet

I would go north of Tampa. Generally you want the storm to move parallel and on the backside of the rotation.

So if it's moving W-E then be on the North side. If it's moving S-N then be on the West side.

Maybe head to Gainesville or Tallahassee.

With plans made, he is a bit locked in. Jumped on it this morning out of concern over lodging availability. But the current track shows Orlando North and "left" of the storm's projected track. And, of course, about 100 miles inland.

Thank you. Good luck to everyone. After Helene, no doubt everyone is on edge.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Thanks. Great advice. Much appreciated. Have done pretty much all of that. Except empty fridge. Will talk to him in the a.m. about that too.

Nothing of value on lower level, Just a few odds and ends on a shelving unit in storage. Nothing on floors. Our expectation is that Orlando could lose power, but should be safe. Already booked the room. Advised him to fill up as he enters Orlando area. Should only need about 2-3 gallons after traveling.

He has multiple power bricks and batteries all charged. He has cash (and full tank of gas) and will get more cash tomorrow. Shutters going up at 8:00 am - confirmed. Plans to bring water and dried snacks with him. Fortunately his electric is below ground and he is on same grid as nearby hospital. Hoping that helps.

Being on the same grid as the hospital is a huge help (assuming no flood).

Has he ever put shutters up before? If they are the heavy galvanized steel shutters, it is not a fun project (nor is taking them down). Presumably he’s young, which is good. If he can get some help with those or hire someone to do it, I recommend doing so, especially since he has a townhouse and presumably needs to get on a ladder to put them on a second floor. (We had them before we invested in impact resistant glass and put them up several times on a single story house.)

Also one more thing: obviously, bring anything outside (grill, furniture, etc.) into the garage.

[DrVenture]

Outside is clear, including screen porch. He has a guy lined up to do shutters, and the guy left his ladder in son's garage saying he'll be back first thing in morning. Also, he has a second guy who told him to call if the first guy falls through. Also, counted the shutters and located the hardware.

We spent all day planning and working out details. I even walked him through disconnecting the garage door sensors from the brackets and hanging them well above ground. Otherwise they will be under water with just a few inches of intrusion. A small detail, but nonetheless.

Thanks again. Really appreciated.

[RickFLM4]

Sounds like you have it all planned out better than many Floridians. Good luck to you son.

[///MPhatic]

A plan is all you can have.

Luckily all the models are showing that it'll die close to the coast. I hope for everyone's sake that's true.

[ppointer]

Our winter home is half an hour north of Fort Lauderdale, 12 miles inland and up against the Everglades. This will probably be a cat 4, and no guarantee which direction it goes, but seems to be headed to Sarasota at the moment. If we were there now, we would be flying out tomorrow morning. Really only willing to sit out cat 2 or less, and we have hurricane windows. If the storm is 3 or stronger, we leave. Milton is currently forecast to be a cat 1 when it reaches Jacksonville, for pete's sake, so who knows how strong it will be when it reaches Orlando. Also, there has been so much rain down there lately, this will certainly be another flood event. Glad my flood insurance is current.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by ppointer

Our winter home is half an hour north of Fort Lauderdale, 12 miles inland and up against the Everglades. This will probably be a cat 4, and no guarantee which direction it goes, but seems to be headed to Sarasota at the moment. If we were there now, we would be flying out tomorrow morning. Really only willing to sit out cat 2 or less, and we have hurricane windows. If the storm is 3 or stronger, we leave. Milton is currently forecast to be a cat 1 when it reaches Jacksonville, for pete's sake, so who knows how strong it will be when it reaches Orlando. Also, there has been so much rain down there lately, this will certainly be another flood event. Glad my flood insurance is current.

Sounds like your winter home is not too far from us in Wellington.

The west coast of FL should clearly be concerned about storm surge and inland areas will be getting lots of rain. Evacuating the coast is the right thing to do but you don’t necessarily need to evacuate hundreds of miles. Our summer place is in Asheville, and we have planned to go there if a bad storm caused extended power outages in Wellington. Fortunately we weren’t there for Helene (our place there is fine, but city is a disaster).

This is a good app for tracking storms:

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hurric...ad/id369266386

[2000cs]

Also turn off water at street or entry to his unit. And natural gas at the meter.

Not native to FL, been through a lot of storms however. I’d go north, but parts of GA still a mess from Helene so NW might be a better direction. More likely to maintain communications, get gas and food for a potential extended stay.

[mjj]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Sounds like your winter home is not too far from us in Wellington.

The west coast of FL should clearly be concerned about storm surge and inland areas will be getting lots of rain. Evacuating the coast is the right thing to do but you don’t necessarily need to evacuate hundreds of miles. Our summer place is in Asheville, and we have planned to go there if a bad storm caused extended power outages in Wellington. Fortunately we weren’t there for Helene (our place there is fine, but city is a disaster).

This is a good app for tracking storms:

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hurric...ad/id369266386

I feel for you with homes in FL and Asheville. I just wonder how bad the insurance rates are going to get. I suspect you will see very few if any P&C insurers remaining in FL. This is going to become a crisis.

Do you believe the housing values will drop dramatically in the same areas (FL coastal) that have had massive increases over the past6-8 years?

Hoping I am way off on my prediction.

[kscarrol]

On a tangent from the water comment above, when emptying the refrigerator, don’t forget the freezer. Dump the ice, turn off the ice maker etc or it will melt, potentially causing water damage or just leaving the freezer a mold/mildew disaster after an extended power outage.

[ASAP]

Lifelong native here... I've been in a house that was in a no flood zone in Cat 2 -3 winds... 115-120 MPH... would never do that again. Nothing ended up happening but it felt like the house would fly away at times... if you are closer to water or at any risk of flooding in the path, you need to get out of the way asap.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by mjj

I feel for you with homes in FL and Asheville. I just wonder how bad the insurance rates are going to get. I suspect you will see very few if any P&C insurers remaining in FL. This is going to become a crisis.

Do you believe the housing values will drop dramatically in the same areas (FL coastal) that have had massive increases over the past6-8 years?

Hoping I am way off on my prediction.

P&C rates are already considered a crisis in FL by many, but some of it is because contractors and homeowners try to get repairs covered under insurance that are not really insured risks (e.g., free roofs 3 years after a storm passed). I think the rates mostly reflect risk. Hurricanes are not new to FL and State Farm left FL in 1992 after Andrew. I think the real news will be other areas getting a taste of insurance premiums like we (and some other areas) have here in FL.

I do not foresee house prices dropping because of storms or P&C. People still move here in droves and they need housing. Condo prices will be under pressure because of state laws to complete mandatory repairs and fund reserve accounts, which triggered assessments and higher dues.

In Asheville, very few people have flood insurance, which is inconceivable to me for anyone living near the rivers. That is going to be a mess to sort out. On one hand people are in dire straits. On the other, if they can rebuild with government money, why should anyone buy flood insurance if there is a safety net without it?

[ppointer]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Sounds like your winter home is not too far from us in Wellington.

The west coast of FL should clearly be concerned about storm surge and inland areas will be getting lots of rain. Evacuating the coast is the right thing to do but you don’t necessarily need to evacuate hundreds of miles. Our summer place is in Asheville, and we have planned to go there if a bad storm caused extended power outages in Wellington. Fortunately we weren’t there for Helene (our place there is fine, but city is a disaster).

This is a good app for tracking storms:

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/hurric...ad/id369266386

Yes, about half an hour south of Wellington. Glad your Asheville home survived.

Milton has already intensified to cat 4. Good thing we're up in Ohio

[nyalpine90]

prayers to my fellow Floridians, stay safe

[DrVenture]

Yes, I hope this is not severe and wish the best for everyone.

[DocL]

I'd follow the suggestions of Gov. DeSantis and the NOAA tracking forcast. It'll probably be better to travel to Miami/Broward/Palm Beach than going to Orlando.