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      09-23-2019, 08:06 PM   #45
WestRace
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The market current mentality is as long as the FED keeps lowering rate, things will go up. Once the FED reaches zero %, they start print and do more QE. Hm ... it's that easy ... like a piper ...
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      09-23-2019, 11:16 PM   #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by other_evolved View Post
It’s a proven fact that market timing rarely works out better than a buy/hold strategy. The only reason someone should be going to cash is if they have an upcoming liquidity event (aka, forced distributions or spending needs). Otherwise, it’s just emotion driving the decision, not discipline.
Yes, you’ll never time it 100% and the proven long term strategy is to dollar cost average, use no-load/low fee funds, start young and stay the course over the long haul. That said, it’s silly to not recognize that you can enhance your returns in the short term by profit taking and reallocating to other investments. There’s plenty of historical data you can leverage to guide a short term decision based on business cycles, seasonality and other criteria. To ignore it, you will likely average out over the long term, but if you’re dealing with a sizable chunk of money, it’s silly to be ignorant to them if those funds aren’t funding your retirement but any other myriad of needs like paying down debt, funding real estate, a large home improvement, etc. I don’t buy a new iPhone in late August because I know it’ll be obsolete in Sept given history. Similarly, I wouldn’t invest a sizable chunk of money into the market when it’s a historically volatile month just to see what happens. Will you be 100% at the top or bottom of the swing? No, but it doesn’t hurt to leverage whatever gains you can. Think beyond solely equities and think about profit/loss taking to move into other investments.

Depending on your tax situation you could even be proactively buying with the intent to ride a downturn for tax purposes.
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      09-24-2019, 10:07 AM   #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineWhite_SJ View Post
Yes, you’ll never time it 100% and the proven long term strategy is to dollar cost average, use no-load/low fee funds, start young and stay the course over the long haul. That said, it’s silly to not recognize that you can enhance your returns in the short term by profit taking and reallocating to other investments. There’s plenty of historical data you can leverage to guide a short term decision based on business cycles, seasonality and other criteria. To ignore it, you will likely average out over the long term, but if you’re dealing with a sizable chunk of money, it’s silly to be ignorant to them if those funds aren’t funding your retirement but any other myriad of needs like paying down debt, funding real estate, a large home improvement, etc. I don’t buy a new iPhone in late August because I know it’ll be obsolete in Sept given history. Similarly, I wouldn’t invest a sizable chunk of money into the market when it’s a historically volatile month just to see what happens. Will you be 100% at the top or bottom of the swing? No, but it doesn’t hurt to leverage whatever gains you can. Think beyond solely equities and think about profit/loss taking to move into other investments.

Depending on your tax situation you could even be proactively buying with the intent to ride a downturn for tax purposes.
Good points, and none of that is at odds with my comments on market timing in the sense that some in here were discussing. AKA, selling out of all equities and going to cash because of some perceived future event. Having a strategic and disciplined rebalancing strategy is key to any asset allocation.
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      09-24-2019, 11:29 AM   #48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by grocerylist View Post
I'm a Boglehead and stick to the three fund portfolio. https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Three-fund_portfolio
Solid concept...thanks for sharing!

Decided to take my strategy a slight step further after coming across this approach:
https://www.realfinanceguy.com/home/...-and-portfolio

Attempting to create something similar using various Vanguard ETFs, I first analyzed past performance of various asset classes:
https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/

Ended up with a portfolio encompassed of the following funds (screenshot attached).
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      09-24-2019, 01:29 PM   #49
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I just plan on never retiring, win-win
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      09-24-2019, 04:39 PM   #50
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I just realized that in this last boom period, the only securities i’ve invested in that haven’t gotten triple digit returns in that 10 year period are non-US. Fuck you, ROW!
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      09-24-2019, 05:22 PM   #51
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Tomorrow (Wed 25th) might be a good buying day. It seems the impeachment news was well into the market before the close today, perhaps there will be some residual in the morning, then up?
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      09-25-2019, 11:45 AM   #52
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DETRoadster View Post
My plan is to do the same thing I've been doing since my first "real" job after college in 1996: Nothing.

I've been putting money into the market every single week, since 1996, regardless of market activity. I'm too ignorant and definitely too unlucky to try to "time" the market. So I'll just keep dropping funds in once a week like I have for 23 years.
This is the most optimal strategy.

Any layperson investor who does anything other than this is deluding themselves.
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      10-02-2019, 11:51 AM   #53
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yes, I've put my 401k in low risk, i'm happy @ 3% return on my money than losing my shirt & boxers again. no need to have a million dollars just to be taxed over an over again
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      10-02-2019, 01:56 PM   #54
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With all the roller coaster ups and downs the past decade my money has been working very for me in the market. If one of the socialists win office in 2020 I will seriously consider a big pull back.
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