Official Tesla Talk Thread **No Politics**

[///M4ster Yoda]

Finally drove a Model 3 Dual Motor today. First time in a Tesla. Interesting car for sure and I enjoyed/appreciate the tech in the car.

It's certainly not a luxury car as the interior is very low rent but the speed makes up for it. The regenerative braking and autopilot are definitely cool features.

I think these are good commuter and non car people cars. Sterile Speed is about the best I can come up with.

It was nice ride home in the ///M4!

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda

Finally drove a Model 3 Dual Motor today. First time in a Tesla. Interesting car for sure and I enjoyed/appreciate the tech in the car.

It's certainly not a luxury car as the interior is very low rent but the speed makes up for it. The regenerative braking and autopilot are definitely cool features.

I think these are good commuter and non car people cars. Sterile Speed is about the best I can come up with.

It was nice ride home in the ///M4!

an honest post if ever there was one...

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

their rate of stock price rise is laughable. Would put bitcoin and dotcom bubbles to shame.

Kinda. A lot of investors learned their lesson with Google, Amazon, Apple, etc: always buy they breakout leader. I bought Apple at $19 in 2000 and sold it in 2010 - what a fuck up!

Sure, there are a lot of TSLA traders (not investors) - many were short and have been utterly demolished - others have obvs done really well. But many others (e.g., Chamath) realize that TSLA is about the only easy way to invest in energy deregulation and global decarbonization.

Smart investors are NOT investing in TSLA for its auto sales business - that's simply like Amazon's books business: it's what pays the bills to build the energy deregulation infrastructure, i.e., battery factories.

Amazon still sells books, and it's a pretty good business, but they didn't make much of a profit for 20 years. Investing in infrastructure vs profits doesn't seem to have been the wrong call.

And don't forget the history of the autos business:

* 1970s Japanese engine makers made niche econo import vehicles simply as a way to sell more engines (i.e., they only made cars - which they knew little about - to sell what they were good at, making engines). They don't even really make those any more. Same with motorcycles - honda invented the motocross motorcycle on accident because they tried to take on harley and failed but a shipping worker modded a leftover and rode it in the LA hills. Same thing with mountain bikes and marin county (modded schwinn world tour road bikes)

* BMW, Benz, etc made nice luxury convertibles in the 70s, and niche import sedans in the 80s.

Niche pays the bills for market expansion.

Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda

Finally drove a Model 3 Dual Motor today ... It's certainly not a luxury car as the interior is very low rent but the speed makes up for it ... I think these are good commuter and non car people cars.

That's exactly what I thought - not for me for lots of reasons, but if I was 10 or 15 years younger, more into techy UIs, and was looking for a good commuter I'd for sure get it. Back when I was in that place I got an Audi A4 MT and it was an awesome commuter ... I'd probably have gotten the Model 3 though.

[PoorLurker]

I don't think Tesla makes a model that feels luxurious for the price of the car.

The Model X has so much wind noise that I thought a window was cracked.

The tech and other features make up for the "lack of luxury" though. The car still has a luxurious feel but not a $100k luxury feel. I guess it's a tradeoff that you "get a new car every update". At least that is what I hear from current owners.

Ludicrous Plus is stupid fast. The dual motor for the 3 and Y is around 3.5 0-60. That's really fast and beyond what most people, including me, need, but mid 4s is plenty so long range can save you an extra $10k or use it to make full self drive a wash.

Get a Model X? Be prepared to spend the extra $25k for the rims and the dual motor. I could not imagine getting a model X and not getting the dual motor. Literally like a roller coaster. 6 seater is extra money as well, so the Model X gets pricey really quickly. I suggest anyone go out for a test drive.

The staff at the local Tesla here was so easy to work with. I just signed up, gave them my license upon arrival, they pulled a car out, went over features, and told me to be back in 30 minutes.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by PoorLurker

I don't think Tesla makes a model that feels luxurious for the price of the car. ... The tech and other features make up for the "lack of luxury" though.

Yeah, and taste amongst generations changes.

I was always a car nut and as a kid my grandpa asked me which car he should buy - for all kinds of technical / value reasons I told him the Honda Accord. He tried it and said it was just too cheap feeling and not luxurious enough so he bought a Buick.

Honda's done pretty well - and to solve their luxury problem they created Acura. (and the others created Infiniti and Lexus)


And Tesla is small, but they're not THAT small, and they're growing fast - I don't think the haters realize how relatively large Tesla already is:



And that Tesla's growth accounts for the 2010+ uptick in US auto manufacturing share - something we've been losing to the Japanese and Germans - and that will be lost to the Chinese if it were not for Tesla:



Once niche automotive trends emerge, they stick:

* European Luxury (Germans in the 60s)
* Economy cars (Japanese in the 70s)
* Hatchback grocery getters (US in the 80s)
* Minivans (US in the 90s)
* SUVs (US in the 2000s)
* Crossovers (US in the 2010s)
* Electric (Globally in the 2020s)

[PoorLurker]

A Buick? Should have gotten a Caddy! Seems like that is the holy grail for old people.

insert seinfeld episode.

Yes, a Honda just doesn't feel luxurious even if it's $40k. I remember my wife mentioning how she realized there was a difference in how the doors felt and sounded while closing between a Honda and a VW.

Tesla around here is mind boggling. One light, I decided to count and saw 6 Teslas drive by. I used to think it was because I was "looking for them" but they are just quite plentiful in Orange County.

Will be fun to see what happens when the Cyber Truck, Semi, and Roadster do.

The company itself seems so foreign in mindset. Who prices cars at 69,420 and labels the models to represent SEXY? Who makes it so that when a passenger sits in the seat, it makes a fart noise. It's like frat guys got together and are making cars that appeal to everyone even with those ideals.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by PoorLurker

The company itself seems so foreign in mindset. ... It's like frat guys got together and are making cars that appeal to everyone even with those ideals.

People like to casually analyze Tesla as if the auto market is a static monolith, yet it's an ever-evolving market swinging drastically decade-to-decade: in 1950, America made 75% of all global autos; in 2010, only 10%!

Something that contributed was, in the 60s, Japanese engine manufacturers asked themselves how could they sell more engines?
Idea! Make cars & motorcycles and put the engines in them!
The Japanese gobbled up so much global autos market share that 20 years later, by the 80s, many thought the Japanese were taking over the planet.

Well, Tesla is kinda doing a reverse-Japanese maneuver: how can Tesla sell more electric power?
Idea! Put electric power into cars, inside of batteries, then sell batteries across all power-need use-cases!

In 20 years Tesla will own the majority of the electric power storage market with autos simply being one of many use-cases.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

People like to casually analyze Tesla as if the auto market is a static monolith, yet it's an ever-evolving market swinging drastically decade-to-decade: in 1950, America made 75% of all global autos; in 2010, only 10%!

Something that contributed was, in the 60s, Japanese engine manufacturers asked themselves how could they sell more engines?
Idea! Make cars & motorcycles and put the engines in them!
The Japanese gobbled up so much global autos market share that 20 years later, by the 80s, many thought [COLOR="Blue"]the Japanese were taking over[/COLOR] [COLOR="blue"]the planet[/COLOR].

Well, Tesla is kinda doing a reverse-Japanese maneuver: how can Tesla sell more electric power?
Idea! Put electric power into cars, inside of batteries, then sell batteries across all power-need use-cases!

In 20 years Tesla will own the majority of the electric power storage market with autos simply being one of many use-cases.

so shell and BP and esso etc of the electric power world while the legacy manufacturers continue car production and service etc?


what if the future holds battery less power ie cars that don't need batteries but can draw power real time from a overhead powerline or even better wirelessly that would be the cleanest.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

So just to set the record a bit straight regarding "Japanese Engine Manufacturers".

Those are fairly common Business School cases that include interviews with the Japanese execs who were there (and the US consultants who tried to help).

Same with Samuel Adams Lite being, originally, a failure so mid-90s some of the consultants went looking for something European they could import (since fancy sold better) and they found Stella Artois which was a funny inside joke because SA, same initials. Stella has just bought Labatt's which gave them a north american base and those dudes paved the way for millions of pretentious americans to overpay for mediocre beer.

Those were also the days that gave birth to "private equity" groups like Bain Capital who decided it was easier (and far more lucrative) to buy a company and fix it versus get hired by it as consultants. Unfortunately the combination of boston consultants and wall street led to LBOs and the destruction of profit incentives in favor of financial shell games which brings us back to mid-teens shale oil and the wall of debt PEGs have created there that's about to topple and kill oil prices for the next few years.

Connections.

Anyway, since nobody's reading this anymore, as for Marin County mountain bikes, which were originally modded Schwinn World Tour road bikes I happened to be there for that one and stupidly traded an original Specialized Stumpjumper for a Diamond Back Apex with new-fangled index shifting. At the time it was a great trade cause that chromoly Apex is still the best riding mountain bike I've ever had, but I bet that Stumpy would be worth a lot now.

[Joekerr]

I might consider a Tesla in 3-5 years if there are sufficient infrastructure investments, and I'm satisfied the battery is still good in very cold temperatures.

In the meantime, here's my contribution to the thread - your Tesla can give you a blowjob now. That ought to be right up certain of the Muskrat fans alley I figure.

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/07/t...why-you-think/

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Joekerr

Your Tesla can give you a blowjob now.

First of all, this is a super inefficient way to get a BJ.

Second, the price of hookers is at an all time low right now so what kind of idiot would pay a premium for electric??

Third, this is super niche with hardly any sales - as soon as the big brothels start competing with Tesla they're DONE!

Who even believes this stuff??

[GrussGott]

Hmmm...

He's really blown away by the driving experience including on the autobahn, but ... I dunno ...

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Man, you just can't deal with people who call you on your shit.

Given nobody in this thread (or the last one) has ever done that, how would we know?

Building on that, given how consistently wrong your TSLA analysis has been (damn those 20 years of magazine articles!), some unsolicited advice:

If you were gonna short TSLA, given Elon probably has covid, now's the time! If you're looking for a cheap ground-floor opportunity, I'd look to hydrogen but it's hard to say who's going to be the breakout there ... bet on whomever you think is most wrong.

[GrussGott]

Today's BEV topic: Myth Busting!
** WARNING: major business nerd analyst stuff ahead **

As an investor and car lover I've been fascinated to watch the electric auto market; it appears to at least "rhyme" with history, i.e., transition from horses & trains to autos & trucks ... and here we are at the beginning of a new revolution!

Since I've already posted BMW's corporate roadmap & financials, I'll switch to Volkswagen as a proxy for "the Bigs": all content is directly from VAG, mostly from the last 3 months.

As a preface, a few points:

• VAG chops up their brands into segments (which is important to their BEV strategy) - 2018 content:



• VAG like most has gotten blasted by COVID (ouch!):



• VAG is building 2 BEV platforms: PPE for the premium markets and MEB for volume markets (from 2018, so that strategy is still in play!):



• And, waaay back in 2018 VAG realized their BEV platforms weren't traditional autos, but rather complex internet devices:



On to the myths:

(1.) ICE is soooo much cheaper than BEVs! Mmm No.

First a few business truisms:

• High-volume products are cheaper to produce than low-volume products
• Mature technology products are cheaper to produce than nascent technology products.

Well, BEVs are relatively new tech and low volume products, yet despite that, BEVs are ALREADY comparable in ownership costs to ICE.
This is like a pre-assembly-line Ford being equal in ownership costs to a horse!
i.e., it's pants-shitting time for anyone in the ICE business. Which why VAG is including this brown-pants slide - this ain't greeny propaganda, this is VAG saying this, i.e, this is best-case-for-ICE stuff:



And the technology is getting better and cheaper exponentially - battery technology will drastically improve over the next 10 years:



And everyone is already planning on how to profit from battery materials recycling across battery "lifetimes" and ultimately back to the beginning:



In other words, BEVs have almost zero consumable parts (just tires & batteries), and the batteries have completely separate businesses and revenue attached to them. (and this is all ignoring V2G utility revenue)

(2.) Tesla is teeny-tiny auto manufacturer! Mmm No.

I've already posted a visual of Tesla deliveries vs other brands and it's pretty obvious Tesla is already out-delivering many legacy auto brands, but here are the VAG delivery numbers through Sept:



Tesla, at ~320k total yearly deliveries in ~Sept, is:

• ~1.5x larger than Porsche (anybody want to argue Porsche doesn't have market power?),
• Equal to SEAT,
• Half the size of Skoda,
• And within horizon-sight of Audi

And that's comparing to ALL legacy deliveries, not just BEVs. So, yes, Tesla is relatively small, but "relatively" is the operative word.

If sales trends continue, Tesla is on target to get within eyeshot of Audi deliveries in 2021.

(3.) The bigs are soooo far ahead of TSLA! Mmm No.

Key point: The Bigs are scrambling to build new BEV platforms ... and they need new factories to produce those BEVs!

But first, the Bigs have to scramble to woo a limited set of BEV parts companies into strategic partnerships/JVs - again, this is from Sept! Tesla has has already been doing this for a decade and is moving to in-house w/vertical integration; that's a MASSIVE head-start, possibly unassailable, and similar to Amazon's logistics advantage.



Next the Bigs have to build the factories - notice how closely VAG's plan resembles what Tesla is already doing (and done)!



And it's not lost on VAG that their top competitor is Tesla! They're designing their vehicles to directly compete with Tesla's products:

Product Nerd Bonus: Customer Segmentation

So who is VAG targeting and who do they think their new BEV customers are?

High education, high income urban males coming from ... Tesla!

One might wonder ... what happens if VAG can't woo over these "conquest" low-resistance buyers?
Well, then VAG is probably left with trying to sell YOU a BEV



DISCLOSURE I have no position in TSLA and never have; I don't own a Tesla and never have; I'm not considering a Tesla in the near future, rather a Porsche Macan. So basically I don't give a shit about Tesla other than it's a fun company to analyze from an industry and investor lens, especially since so many people get it wrong and have gotten it wrong.

[GrussGott]

So European automakers have rallied 100% from March lows ... how do global markets value them against Tesla?

Market caps

TSLA $473B

Volkswagen $80B
Daimler $60B
BMW $47B
Ferrari $35B
Fiat $20B
Porsche SE $17B
PSA $17B
Renault $9B

Global:
Toyota $197B
GM $61B
Ford $35B

[GrussGott]

Top 10 largest S&P 500 Companies:



But that P/E ratio:

[GrussGott]

Back in early September I bet this dude (DanCS) on Seeking Alpha that TSLA would be up big by December.

He was so confident I was wrong (citing all kinds of car sales figures, VAG group plans etc) that he took out short positions on TSLA - that was back when TSLA was $407.

Today TSLA is $574 Can you imagine the financial beating? It's why options are so dangerous: unlimited loss potential vs equity where losses stop at zero.

[KRS_SN]

as with the Innovator's curve I think tesla has the Innovator'/ Early adopter market share and is valued as if it will have all the late adopter profit value as if it won't have any competitor
The early and late majority stages are where the big boys comes in as currently perhaps based on their research most sales of Tesla are to the innovator /Early adopter group to which mass manufacturers don't plan to supply anyway as profit is less.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

The early and late majority stages are where the big boys comes in

Dude, this has never happened in the history of business. The Big Boys aren't ever coming in - they're out; they started out, they're still out, they'll stay out.

Early movers ALWAYS win, the only question is which "big boys" survive the carnage, if any. "Big boys" are simply not organized to pivot to new stuff; they're built to be ultra-efficient at old stuff. Nobody internally has any incentive to change, so the Big Boys usually go the way of Blockbuster, extinct.

Apple: Nokia, Ericksson, Blackberry, et al
Netflix: Blockbuster, every video/DVD rental business, challenging Disney, hollywood
Google: Every major ad syndicator globally, every search engine, every phone OS / app stores
Amazon: everyone, TGT barely survived, Walmart had to acquire their way out (e.g., Jet)
Microsoft: Apple, IBM, DEC, etc etc

Tesla has the capital, technology lead, talent, and brand to destroy not only all the auto makers, but a decent chunk of suppliers AND energy companies.

Tesla's stock is not a fluke - traders realize TSLA is on the verge of owning MULTIPLE industries. There's no other game in town, and Tesla has done it all in the open while the Big Boys slept, denied reality, and bicker.

This stuff is just from today:

The only question left is which Big Boys survive.

[KRS_SN]

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-55103706

a very good article
valuation of Tesla went from 80billion ar the beginning of the year to 500 billion now.
An ultra ginormous ponzi scheme where you don't want to be the Last person holding the parcel when the band stops playing.
and bbc is very pro tesla...

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

So I shouldn't buy a New Bronco then? There will be no gas to put in it. Oh my!

Lol.

There'll always be plenty of gasoline (for those with money), just like there are plenty of oats for horses - ask the Amish for more info; the question will be availability and cost. That said, the US probably won't be a fast adopter of xEVs, at least as compared to Europe and China so you'll have a decade.

More importantly, the reason you shouldn't buy a Ford is because their quality, especially their for new models, is horrific. Of course there's the whole GT500 set of QC issues, and then the explorers and lincoln QC issues, and then just the dealer networks are terrible.

Tons of GT500 customers getting huge ADM surprises on delivery - I can only imagine the Bronco is going to be way worse.

[GrussGott]

Short-sellers: