When is the rolex bubble going to pop?

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by hogwldfltr

I got a 20% discount on the Daytona and bought it without sales tax through the shop's NH store. ... I'm set with one Pt, one Au, and one stainless piece, all Rolex watches.

Wow, nice deal! And good to simplify - i did that a few years back and it's much less stressful ... that said I still have watch bug, but this time I'm going to go more in the micro / g-shock direction. Magrette, NauticFish and others have so stuff I'm interested in, but all divers or action watches, nothing fancy for me anymore.

[hogwldfltr]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Wow, nice deal! And good to simplify - i did that a few years back and it's much less stressful ... that said I still have watch bug, but this time I'm going to go more in the micro / g-shock direction. Magrette, NauticFish and others have so stuff I'm interested in, but all divers or action watches, nothing fancy for me anymore.

Sounds good, I'm reformed...

[hogwldfltr]

Originally Posted by GrussGott

Wow, nice deal! And good to simplify - i did that a few years back and it's much less stressful ... that said I still have watch bug, but this time I'm going to go more in the micro / g-shock direction. Magrette, NauticFish and others have so stuff I'm interested in, but all divers or action watches, nothing fancy for me anymore.

Strangely, I still look at watches and even bought one recently!!! I bought a Ball for BMW with tritium tube lumes. I love the night time glow it gives.

[chassis]

To the OP's question - the bubble on discretionary goods, such as a Rolex watch, will pop when the economy meaningfully slows. A meaningfully slowing economy is not the current situation in North America.

[Gogators93]

Haven't followed prices lately but when I bought my Two-Toned Blue faced sub in 2004 the watch at that time was selling way over retail was the SS Daytona. I think my TT retailed for like $7800 when I purchased it but I paid considerably less.

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by chassis

To the OP's question - the bubble on discretionary goods, such as a Rolex watch, will pop when the economy meaningfully slows. A meaningfully slowing economy is not the current situation in North America.

A slowing economy or recession will bring the secondary market down slightly, but that's it; many luxury buyers will be unaffected by even an economic depression, and they'll snap up the supply of those that are.

If anything, a recession will only raise prices of luxury goods, as the targeted buyers aren't people who need to work for a living.

[1MOREMOD]

Thats not right. First thing people let go for cheap is luxury items. It's like the market poor people panic and rich take advantage.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by 1MOREMOD

Thats not right. First thing people let go for cheap is luxury items. It's like the market poor people panic and rich take advantage.

unfortunately that wont have a big affect on the rolex market.

New rolex will continue to sell for MSRP at the AD. There are too many people out there with money after rolex, and a slowing economy wont affect that.

The secondary market might take a dip, but you will still see the sought after rolex going for a premium, because again, there are too many people with money after rolex.

Do you think someone who is paying double MSRP for a Daytona is someone that needs to worry about a slowing economy?

Also, something to consider is a lot of these watches are going overseas. As long as one of those markets' economy is doing well, the prices will stay where they are at.

Your best bet to getting cheap rolex from people that need to sell due to the economy, is to know people that cant afford the rolex they bought in the first place, or to establish yourself as a premier dealer prior to a market crash.