When is the rolex bubble going to pop?

[corn18]

Vintage Rolex forum. Can’t post a link, but they will be able to help. Standby for a thousand PMs offering you a lot of money. Depending on condition, a 6542 Bakelite gmt is worth a LOT of money ($100k or more). An average one is worth $50k if it’s original and at least running. Post a pick if you can so I can drool.

[CigarPundit]

Originally Posted by corn18

Vintage Rolex forum. Can't post a link, but they will be able to help. Standby for a thousand PMs offering you a lot of money. Depending on condition, a 6542 Bakelite gmt is worth a LOT of money ($100k or more). An average one is worth $50k if it's original and at least running. Post a pick if you can so I can drool.

Thanks!

[corn18]

Originally Posted by CigarPundit

Thanks!

droooollll

That’s an M5 right there

[openwheelracing]

Sweet mother of Jesus...

[corn18]

This should go to auction. That will get the best price and the most exposure. Go slow and don’t jump at the first offer which will be at least $50k (I would offer that but it’s worth twice that at least and maybe more at auction). Do you have any box or paperwork? Provenance will only make it more valuable. Now is the time to sell as the vintage Rolex market is crazy and this is a crazy awesome watch.

[CigarPundit]

Originally Posted by corn18

This should go to auction. That will get the best price and the most exposure. Go slow and don’t jump at the first offer which will be at least $50k (I would offer that but it’s worth twice that at least and maybe more at auction). Do you have any box or paperwork? Provenance will only make it more valuable. Now is the time to sell as the vintage Rolex market is crazy and this is a crazy awesome watch.

You’re probably right that an auction is worth considering. No box or papers, but it runs fine and seems to be in pretty decent condition from what little I’ve seen. I’m going to sign up with the forum, show it off a bit, and see what happens. I don’t need to sell it, but I’d be interested in exploring it given the current market.


Kind of a funny story how I got it. I was helping a girl pick out a vintage watch as a gift for someone else in the 1990s. We went shopping in Manhattan and wandered into a watch shop. I was wrist-modeling the watches for her. The clerk showed us a few and then brought this one out. I didn’t know anything about watches back then, but it just spoke to me. I told her I really liked it, and she bought it.

The guy didn’t know what he had—there was no talk about it being a Bakelite, or rare. If I recall correctly (and I might not), he sold it to her for about $1,500. Well, she ended up breaking it off with the guy she bought it for, and never gave it to him. Years later, I married the girl and she gave it to me as an engagement gift.

I wore it as my daily for years never having any idea that one smack against a door jam and I could have destroyed the most valuable component of the watch. Then I got into watches and discovered what I had. Haven’t worn it since, lol, but I replaced it immediately with a 16710 Pepsi, which now has a nice patina and continues to be one of my dailies.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by openwheelracing

I am not talking about complexity of movements. I am talking the brands in general. Everyone in the business will tell you nothing comes close to Patek and Rolex, in that order.

Plenty of complex horology to go around, no one really cares. A Lange, Audemars, Vacheron, Richard Mille, Blancpain to even Nomos and Seiko. It's the perception of brand value that stands out, hence Patek and Rolex are so sought after.

If by "Business" you mean jewelry business where they are just trying to make a sale, sure they will tell you Rolex is the best thing in the world.

If you are talk the actual watch business, no one will tell you that and you will get laughed out of any serious watch discussion with watch people.

Originally Posted by ASAP

Please note... the marketing, branding and history is a HUGGGEEEE part of all of this. While Rolex certainly doesn't have the complex movements or rarity or specialty of AP, Patek, ALS etc etc... it has massive world renown as a luxury item not just a watch. It's recognized above all of the above as a symbol of status. AP probably will not be known outside of the watchworld or by enthusiasts... I could go around ask 10 people and all 10 would know Rolex, maybe 2 would know what AP is... that alone is humongous. The other big names only really have a meaning for enthusiasts and collectors.

Yes, Rolex has made a name for themselves, and as such, has been able to rest on their name instead of advancing horology. Its not a bad thing, as they are an iconic symbol of status, but just because everyone knows their name, doesnt make them great.

Originally Posted by ASAP

That only has meaning to enthusiasts, collectors and watch experts... the masses will never ever see it that way.

I mean listen, we all could say Alfa makes some great cars, Giulia QV included...yet we all somehow drive M3's.

Originally Posted by ASAP

Yeah, but most people simply do not have that many watches nor do they care enough... for those people Rolex will always be top... as far as complexity, horology etc etc... I honestly think time (no pun intended) has in many ways surpassed that field as cheap items like the Apple watch are far more reliable, accurate and can do more than tell time. I see all of these watches as a luxury good and the Rolex name rings top in that dept to most of the world.

The people just buying the watch because they want to say they have a rolex arent exactly what I would call watch people. They are more jewelry people IMO. Not that their classifications of brands are wrong, but they just dont know any better.

Over the years I've had everything from cheap seikos to 30k+ pateks. You know what always, without fail, gets the most comments? Any rolex. You could have someone wearing a "cheap" $3k datejust on one wrist, and a 30k multicomplication ALS on the other, and the datejust would get more compliments.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by CigarPundit

You’re probably right that an auction is worth considering. No box or papers, but it runs fine and seems to be in pretty decent condition from what little I’ve seen. I’m going to sign up with the forum, show it off a bit, and see what happens. I don’t need to sell it, but I’d be interested in exploring it given the current market.


Kind of a funny story how I got it. I was helping a girl pick out a vintage watch as a gift for someone else in the 1990s. We went shopping in Manhattan and wandered into a watch shop. I was wrist-modeling the watches for her. The clerk showed us a few and then brought this one out. I didn’t know anything about watches back then, but it just spoke to me. I told her I really liked it, and she bought it.

The guy didn’t know what he had—there was no talk about it being a Bakelite, or rare. If I recall correctly (and I might not), he sold it to her for about $1,500. Well, she ended up breaking it off with the guy she bought it for, and never gave it to him. Years later, I married the girl and she gave it to me as an engagement gift.

I wore it as my daily for years never having any idea that one smack against a door jam and I could have destroyed the most valuable component of the watch. Then I got into watches and discovered what I had. Haven’t worn it since, lol, but I replaced it immediately with a 16710 Pepsi, which now has a nice patina and continues to be one of my dailies.

Attachment 2110410

My advice if you truly want to sell, is get Rolex or a Rolex Expert to authenticate and provide authentication papers. DO NOT HAVE THEM POLISH OR REPLACE ANYTHING THOUGH!!!!! That will significantly drop the value.

Getting the authentication papers on the watch though will provide buyers with something to go off of in regards to what is original, what has been replaced, and will give you an idea of what the actual value is. These vintage Rolex can have huge price swings if it is an all original watch, vs one that has something minor like service swapped hands. That alone can be a 10-20k swing right there.

The Rolex Forum is probably your best bet to get a sale. Watchuseek is another good place. But be ready for the lowball offers, and expect the buyer to want to see it in person before forking over the cash. The vintage Rolex market is full of shady sellers so people are cautious.

[openwheelracing]

Please, you clearly don't have a clue about horology or watch business. They would rather sell you that YLC all day everyday. Sounds like you argue cause you are bored in life.

Everyone in the business laughs at your comments above. Again, Patel and Rolex, in that order. Complications don't matter in this case

[1MOREMOD]

Talking about sales and horology in the same sentence proves you are the one without a clue. A retailer will tell you whatever you want to hear to make a sale. True watch people definitely care about movements. They are like car sales. They will downplay anything they don't have there to sell you. Rolex hasnt done anything in 40 years besides make the same thing and market the crap out of themselves. Its perception. They arent anywhere near the best just known. Longines was actually Rolex before Rolex was Rolex. They marketed the crap out of themselves were in sport particularly aviation with Lindburg and so on. They're are dozens of better companies than Rolex you just arent anywhere close to being in the know.

[openwheelracing]

Please, we collect mostly for the asthetics. Be honest, even the most hardcore amongst us still collect mostly on asthetics. Of course we care about movements, but no one really cares about unproven movements. You also clearly have no idea about margins in the business, or what they do or don't have to sell you. Longines was Rolex before Rolex?.....wow.....never heard that one before. I have heard about Omega being the Rolex aspiration type back in 50s though

Rolex is not my fave, nor is Patek. I see you are a typical anti Rolex guy. Thats fine, but the truth is nothing comes to Patek and Rolex, in that order.

[1MOREMOD]

You keep talking about money. I dont know about margins because I care about the watches not making money on them. Your completely different angle. Watch some teddy baldassare or Armand the watch guy or read some books about watch history before you talk about things your only a poseur at.

[ASAP]

The movement discussion continues to make me laugh day by day... I think times have changed so much that so few people care about that... I can literally walk to an Apple store, pick up a watch for $200 and surpass any mechnical movement advancement made within the last 50 years in 2 seconds... Rolex is actually probably the smartest for investing little into it as they know what people actually want... I think movement discussions were valid 20 years ago but now it's like arguing who builds a better manual transmission.

[1MOREMOD]

Youre right most people want the appearance of a nice watch not an actual one. Those people arent watch people. Watch industry is still rather robust and there are plenty that do care as well. Because you dont you think everyone feels like you.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by openwheelracing

Please, you clearly don't have a clue about horology or watch business. They would rather sell you that YLC all day everyday. Sounds like you argue cause you are bored in life.

Everyone in the business laughs at your comments above. Again, Patel and Rolex, in that order. Complications don't matter in this case

Originally Posted by openwheelracing

Please, we collect mostly for the asthetics. Be honest, even the most hardcore amongst us still collect mostly on asthetics. Of course we care about movements, but no one really cares about unproven movements. You also clearly have no idea about margins in the business, or what they do or don't have to sell you. Longines was Rolex before Rolex?.....wow.....never heard that one before. I have heard about Omega being the Rolex aspiration type back in 50s though

Rolex is not my fave, nor is Patek. I see you are a typical anti Rolex guy. Thats fine, but the truth is nothing comes to Patek and Rolex, in that order.

Not really sure what to tell you. Myself, along with many others in the watch communities I am a part of, absolutely care about the movement and if it is a horological masterpiece or a mass produced cheap movement slapped in an overmarketed watch. As for the history of Rolex and mechanical watches in general, i suggest you crack open the internet and look into it. Youd be surprised to see that companies like Longines were miles ahead of their competitors in terms of technology up until they started getting away from their in house movements.

As for knowing horology and the watch business, nah wouldnt know anything about those. I only create, build, service and restore watches as a business.

And I assure you, I am not anti-rolex. I would wager I have personally owned more Rolex than most casual collectors. Everything from cheap airkings to full gold subs and daytonas. They have a good style and are a good tool watch, which is why i tend to wear them much more than an annual calender or moonphase dress watch, but there is a reason i dont tend to keep them long and typical sell to make room for an actual horological significant piece. There is something about knowing how much of a modern marvel the thing you are wearing on your wrist is. The fact that someone could engineer and build a piece of machinery with 100s of little pieces that fits on your wrist is fascinating.

Originally Posted by ASAP

The movement discussion continues to make me laugh day by day... I think times have changed so much that so few people care about that... I can literally walk to an Apple store, pick up a watch for $200 and surpass any mechnical movement advancement made within the last 50 years in 2 seconds... Rolex is actually probably the smartest for investing little into it as they know what people actually want... I think movement discussions were valid 20 years ago but now it's like arguing who builds a better manual transmission.

the person who is happy wearing an apple watch vs a multi complication watch is not the person we are talking about caring about movements. Those are 2 completely different markets that have nothing to do with each other. The only similarity is they are both strapped to the wrist. If you are someone that thinks the apple watch is superior, then you are not the person we are talking about.

Rolex are everywhere, and that is why they sell. They have marketed themselves to be the iconic brand of the luxury watch market to the casual watch wearer. That is why they dont follow companies like ALS or Patek or even AP, JLC, etc with multicomplication movements. Those movements are harder to produce, take longer to produce, and dont lend themselves to assembly line, automation style mass production. Rolex's business model is to overhype their watches, artificially limit supply, and make it so their watches are never found on a discount site.

[openwheelracing]

I care about the movements as much as the next watch guy, but I am not going to pretend some Patrimony Grand Moonphase Tourbillon Alarm Bell polished with Stardust somehow equates to horology royalty. Absolutely not. They sell a hand full to people who can barely spell UUUblow. They lose value faster than BMW 745i, and no one knows if that thing still works after warranty.

Rolex movements are absolutely top notch without all the fancy decorations, but that's okay for 99.999% of collectors. Just think about the 3185/3186. That's a masterpiece.

Say what you want, I love watches and my opinion will never change, same as you. I say nothing comes close to Patek and Rolex, in that order. I hear this regularly from those who I trust most in watch collecting, and my experience tells me this is true.

[1MOREMOD]

Doesnt the ability to develop a fantastic halo car add credibility to a manufacturer and their whole line up? Same applies for watches, innovation and crazy complications shows the talent of the company and its watch masters. There are numerous factors that go into top tier watches, cars, guns. Not just durability or name recognition. What you believe doesnt make it reality for everyone else you sound like a nut job liberal.

[ASAP]

I mean what happens if I tell you (and I don't believe this btw)... that Rolex marketed themselves as a tool watch and their watches are massively resistant to shock, can be used in subaquatic depths and were at one point massively respected as a proper tool in their very field... i.e. diving etc...

Again, I don't believe this... as I still think they are a luxury watchmaker / jewelry brand but let's not spin shit 720 degrees without giving them credit for their beginning being completely different... frankly I think if you go back 50 years, I think the only other brand of this class that anyone would recognize was Patek... AP and everything else named above had 0 meaning to almost anyone.

I, for one love Vacheron but could not pay that type of money for such a niche / unrecognized brand.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by openwheelracing

I care about the movements as much as the next watch guy, but I am not going to pretend some Patrimony Grand Moonphase Tourbillon Alarm Bell polished with Stardust somehow equates to horology royalty. Absolutely not. They sell a hand full to people who can barely spell UUUblow. They lose value faster than BMW 745i, and no one knows if that thing still works after warranty.

Rolex movements are absolutely top notch without all the fancy decorations, but that's okay for 99.999% of collectors. Just think about the 3185/3186. That's a masterpiece.

Say what you want, I love watches and my opinion will never change, same as you. I say nothing comes close to Patek and Rolex, in that order. I hear this regularly from those who I trust most in watch collecting, and my experience tells me this is true.

if you count a standard 4 hand movement with faulty GMT modules that have a high rate of failure a masterpiece, sure, they are a masterpiece.

This year alone ive replaced over a dozen of those modules.

The ETA 2893 movement does the same thing that 3185 does. As do numerous other low end movements. You have obviously bought into the Rolex hype which is ok. That is what it is intended to do.

Hell, even the Omega 8605 is a better movement than the 3185/3186 and it is found in watches sold at less than half the 116710LN

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I mean what happens if I tell you (and I don't believe this btw)... that Rolex marketed themselves as a tool watch and their watches are massively resistant to shock, can be used in subaquatic depths and were at one point massively respected as a proper tool in their very field... i.e. diving etc...

Again, I don't believe this... as I still think they are a luxury watchmaker / jewelry brand but let's not spin shit 720 degrees without giving them credit for their beginning being completely different... frankly I think if you go back 50 years, I think the only other brand of this class that anyone would recognize was Patek... AP and everything else named above had 0 meaning to almost anyone.

I, for one love Vacheron but could not pay that type of money for such a niche / unrecognized brand.

and omega and blancpain and jlc and numerous other brands (squale's divers came out years before the rolex sub, and Panarai was making dive watches decades before them). in fact, the blancpain fifty fathoms was the inspiration for the rolex sub.

Tudor as well, but tudor = rolex without the rolex name so i didnt feel like it needed to be added.

[openwheelracing]

Wow, that's a lot of arrogance from a so called watch maker. You are welcome to argue with my watch maker but I bet he is way better than you. Sounds like instead of buying into the "Rolex hype", you bought into the "high horology" hype. By your own logic most movements are junk except 150k YLC, 250K VC, and Miyotas.

Actually, I have no idea why you two argue so much. I love all watches, but I believe Patek and Rolex are above everyone else as a whole. No one cares that you think so low about Rolex GMT movements. Not sure what we are arguing cause we like all watches. By the political tone of your post, sounds like there is something missing in your life other than watches.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by openwheelracing

Wow, that's a lot of arrogance from a so called watch maker. You are welcome to argue with my watch maker but I bet he is way better than you. Sounds like instead of buying into the "Rolex hype", you bought into the "high horology" hype. By your own logic most movements are junk except 150k YLC, 250K VC, and Miyotas.

Actually, I have no idea why you two argue so much. I love all watches, but I believe Patek and Rolex are above everyone else as a whole. No one cares that you think so low about Rolex GMT movements. Not sure what we are arguing cause we like all watches. By the political tone of your post, sounds like there is something missing in your life other than watches.

you are beyond hope....

and miyotas are one of those low end mass produced movements....

again, shows you dont really know what you are talking about.