Still want an EV? (NO POLITICS)

[tturedraider]

Originally Posted by eugenebmw

This will be the solution for the next 10 years Again good luck to my American friends.

Exactly. Except multiplied many times over. And just imagine running your extension cord from the 12th floor.

This is what a typical residential street in Chicago looks like in good weather. Won’t it be fun in the winter?!

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by tturedraider

I guess you will never see this but I’ll just add a small tidbit. The “No Politics” was added pretty recently. I’m not sure what happened, but I’m guessing the political debate was heating up and a warning was issued.

Here is a question I have posed in this thread numerous times and I’ve never seen an answer. I’ve also never seen it addressed by the government or the industry. It’s possible someone has addressed it in this thread, because I don’t check it every day, but I’m going to guess it probably still hasn’t been addressed. As Efthreeoh mentioned a few posts back in his list of seven issues, if you can’t charge at home BEVs are a pain to own. So, the issue I’m raising the question about is how do the “powers that be”, whose goal is to force EVs on the market within a pretty compressed time frame, propose folks without garages (or at least driveways) are going to charge their EVs? I live in Chicago. My ballpark estimate is at least 50% of automobiles in the city are owned by folks who only have street parking. I actually think when you take into account the number of car owners who live in large condominium buildings with parking garages the percentage is higher than 50% that don’t have access to home charging stations. There are many cities in the U.S. like Chicago and if I recall correctly the projections are that the city populations will be growing a pretty fair amount over the coming years.

If someone has an idea for how charging apparatus can realistically be installed along the street curbs, please do share. I live in a medium size condominium building that is a little over ten years old. Relatively new for the housing stock in Chicago. We have 180 garage parking spaces in two garages that were not designed to accommodate EV charging stations. About six years ago our association, along with the electric company, had a study done to see how much it would cost to add the basic infrastructure that would allow us to be able to accommodate a garage full of EVs. At that time the cost was estimated at $300,000. Just to bring our basic electric infrastructure up to a level where we could accommodate adding charging stations. My rough estimate is the cost of actually adding 180 charging stations would be in the neighborhood of $1,000,000. Just a little side note. We did the infrastructure study because we had a condo owner who bought a Tesla and got the board to agree to let him install a charging station for his car, which he paid for. As part of that process the board asked the electrician doing the installation how many stations our garage could accommodate and they were told it could not accommodate any others with the current infrastructure.

And then an anecdotal story about EVs being a pain if you can’t charge at home. We recently had someone buy a condo in our building who already owned a Tesla. His parking space is right next to mine. I think he was here less than four months before I saw his Tesla was gone. He actually bought an X1. Not long after that I saw him in the garage and asked him about it. He said it had been to difficult to keep the Tesla charged and also he didn’t like how much the performance of the battery was degraded in the winter time. Of course I asked him how he liked the X1 and he loves it and said he has no plans to go back to an EV.

The "issue" with this question is that it's not an EV question. It's a political question. The simple EV focused answer is there is no good way to charge an EV if you live in a condo. Period. Just like there is no good place to park my F350 if I lived in my moms condo with an enclosed parking garage where it doesn't fit. Or like there's no good way to carry a family of 4 and all their luggage in my Miata.

The real answer to your political question has already been discussed ad nauseam. However I will give my political answer anyways. I don't believe they will be mandated, period. They can say whatever they want but when 2030 or whatever comes around and most people still don't have EVs they will dump it or basically neuter it. Or it might just happen in a couple months. There's still 2 elections between now and then.

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

The "issue" with this question is that it's not an EV question. It's a political question. The simple EV focused answer is there is no good way to charge an EV if you live in a condo. Period. Just like there is no good place to park my F350 if I lived in my moms condo with an enclosed parking garage where it doesn't fit. Or like there's no good way to carry a family of 4 and all their luggage in my Miata.

The real answer to your political question has already been discussed ad nauseam. However I will give my political answer anyways. I don't believe they will be mandated, period. They can say whatever they want but when 2030 or whatever comes around and most people still don't have EVs they will dump it or basically neuter it. Or it might just happen in a couple months. There's still 2 elections between now and then.

[BUSINESS CONTENT] But that's the problem, designing and manufacturing an automobile is like sailing an aircraft carrier, it turns very slowly. Auto companies are banking their products now on what the legislation now says will be saleable in the future. If 2030/2035 arrives and the market doesn't want BEV and political whim at the stroke of a pen moves or drops the mandate, a whole lot of investment is going to be lost. That will not be good for anyone.

The aircraft carrier is already underway.

[pbonsalb]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

The "issue" with this question is that it's not an EV question. It's a political question. The simple EV focused answer is there is no good way to charge an EV if you live in a condo. Period. Just like there is no good place to park my F350 if I lived in my moms condo with an enclosed parking garage where it doesn't fit. Or like there's no good way to carry a family of 4 and all their luggage in my Miata.

The real answer to your political question has already been discussed ad nauseam. However I will give my political answer anyways. I don't believe they will be mandated, period. They can say whatever they want but when 2030 or whatever comes around and most people still don't have EVs they will dump it or basically neuter it. Or it might just happen in a couple months. There's still 2 elections between now and then.

The car makers losing money on EVs are likely spending money on lobbyists to delay EV mandates just like they spent money on lobbyists to delay CAFE standards.

Even though US oil production is at an all time high, I’d still like to see more renewable energy and grid improvement. I don’t keep up on that stuff but understand Canadian hydropower generated electricity is coming down the East coast soon. Hopefully there will be improvements across the country.

I’d like to see better efficiency improvements as well. Seems like development is ongoing, with potentially doubling of range and halving of charging time possible. Things could be quite different in 10 years.

I agree with comments that at present, EVs make a lot of sense for a small minority of people and not much sense for the majority. That is probably why EVs represent less than 10% of US vehicle sales currently.

In 1920, there were more EVs in NYC than gas cars. Things changed. They could change again.

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

[BUSINESS CONTENT] But that's the problem, designing and manufacturing an automobile is like sailing an aircraft carrier, it turns very slowly. Auto companies are banking their products now on what the legislation now says will be saleable in the future. If 2030/2035 arrives and the market doesn't want BEV and political whim at the stroke of a pen moves or drops the mandate, a whole lot of investment is going to be lost. That will not be good for anyone.

The aircraft carrier is already underway.

Originally Posted by pbonsalb

The car makers losing money on EVs are likely spending money on lobbyists to delay EV mandates just like they spent money on lobbyists to delay CAFE standards.

Even though US oil production is at an all time high, I’d still like to see more renewable energy and grid improvement. I don’t keep up on that stuff but understand Canadian hydropower generate electricity is coming down the East coast soon. Hopefully there will be improvements across the country.

I’d like to see batter efficiency improvements as well. Seems like development is ongoing, with potentially doubling of range and halving of charging time possible. Things could be quite different in 10 years.

I agree with comments that at present, EVs make a lot of sense for a small minority of people and not much sense for the majority. That is probably why EVs represent less than 10% of US vehicle sales currently.

In 1920, there were more EVs in NYC than gas cars. Things changed. They could change again.

I can't change what's going to happen. All I can do is vote and prepare. Whining about it in here for 400 pages isn't going to change anything.

2030 I don't personally think will happen as far as stopping sales of ICE. I do think they will continue to sell EVs and they will gain more market share. Infrastructer will improve over time and more people for whom an EV is a good option will open up to it. If it's 2035 then all bets are off. That's to far for me to even guess. Look at LED light bulbs. When they came out they were shit. Expensive, horrible color, shit output, who wants that? No one. Then they got better and better and honestly, I don't think I own any incandescent bulbs anymore. You can still buy them even though like 80% of the bulbs offered at the store are LED.

If I'm wrong and the mandate happens then I have several ICE vehicles already and I'm fortunate enough to have a garage with power and just installed power at the NC house detached garage.

[crAbb]

South Korea to introduce EV ban.

https://www.carscoops.com/2024/08/ko...UqCkidfAKrRquQ

[Murf the Surf]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

The "issue" with this question is that it's not an EV question. It's a political question. The simple EV focused answer is there is no good way to charge an EV if you live in a condo. Period. Just like there is no good place to park my F350 if I lived in my moms condo with an enclosed parking garage where it doesn't fit. Or like there's no good way to carry a family of 4 and all their luggage in my Miata.

The real answer to your political question has already been discussed ad nauseam. However I will give my political answer anyways. I don't believe they will be mandated, period. They can say whatever they want but when 2030 or whatever comes around and most people still don't have EVs they will dump it or basically neuter it. Or it might just happen in a couple months. There's still 2 elections between now and then.

Numerous automakers are scaling back or pausing EV production because people just aren't buying them. This article hits on al the points that have been made ad nauseam here. Just common sense really.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/der...rket-realities

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by Murf the Surf

Numerous automakers are scaling back or pausing EV production because people just aren't buying them. This article hits on al the points that have been made ad nauseam here. Just common sense really.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/derek-evs-sales-and-production-clash-with-market-realities

If that’s the case then it simply reinforces my point that the mandates will fail.

That being said people are still buying EVs. While EV sales have slowed they are still up year over year. Maybe not for Ford or GM but EV sales in general have been going up for several years.

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

If that’s the case then it simply reinforces my point that the mandates will fail.

That being said people are still buying EVs. While EV sales have slowed they are still up year over year. Maybe not for Ford or GM but EV sales in general have been going up for several years.

EV sales have been up quite modestly. A couple thousand units YoY. The big gains some brands are seeing are largely lost sales for Tesla.

Without getting political (which is virtually impossible because EVs are effectively attached at the hip to government regulations), unless something changes with the EPA rulings automakers will be effectively forced to sell EVs by CAFE requirements. This is going to out them in a huge bind because consumers aren't sold on EVs by and large. The ICE bans are one thing, but when the EPA is going to leverage fines against each car sold in the 10s of thousands, it's just not going to be economically viable to sell them, because even when you pass that cost on to buyers (as has already been done and is a major driver of new car price bloat), you're dramatically cutting the affordability of the cars.

So the automakers will be faced with a choice between building EVs they can't sell, or ICE cars they can't sell at prices that are sustainable. You can forget about the ICE bans of 2030, by 2030 passenger cars have to have a fleet average of 80mpg. There are no vehicles that even nearly meet that. Light Duty trucks have to have an average of 62mpg. Obviously there are none that even come close to that. Every 20mpg truck will have to be offset by another light truck that does 104mpg. Obviously, there will not be a vehicle that can do that outside of an EV, and there won't be EV buyers in those quantities, so the only possibility is to change the regulations. Or force all the automakers out of business i guess.

[dreamingat30fps]

Originally Posted by BlkGS

EV sales have been up quite modestly. A couple thousand units YoY. The big gains some brands are seeing are largely lost sales for Tesla.

Without getting political (which is virtually impossible because EVs are effectively attached at the hip to government regulations), unless something changes with the EPA rulings automakers will be effectively forced to sell EVs by CAFE requirements. This is going to out them in a huge bind because consumers aren't sold on EVs by and large. The ICE bans are one thing, but when the EPA is going to leverage fines against each car sold in the 10s of thousands, it's just not going to be economically viable to sell them, because even when you pass that cost on to buyers (as has already been done and is a major driver of new car price bloat), you're dramatically cutting the affordability of the cars.

So the automakers will be faced with a choice between building EVs they can't sell, or ICE cars they can't sell at prices that are sustainable. You can forget about the ICE bans of 2030, by 2030 passenger cars have to have a fleet average of 80mpg. There are no vehicles that even nearly meet that. Light Duty trucks have to have an average of 62mpg. Obviously there are none that even come close to that. Every 20mpg truck will have to be offset by another light truck that does 104mpg. Obviously, there will not be a vehicle that can do that outside of an EV, and there won't be EV buyers in those quantities, so the only possibility is to change the regulations. Or force all the automakers out of business i guess.

So which of those two outcomes do you think will realistically happen?

[BlkGS]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

So which of those two outcomes do you think will realistically happen?

Honestly? Both. I suspect one of the big 3 (probably GM, but maybe Stellantis or both) will basically go out of business, the taxpayers will get to bail them out again, and the regulations will be relaxed again to bail them out. I suspect they'll just remove the fines associated with not meeting the goals, so that way the government saves face on its green goals, but the automakers aren't forced out of business.

This will likely come with some concessions in that they'll devote x money to EVs or whatever, and the media will spin it as "an over reliance on trucks and SUVs" and gloss over the actual reality of it.

[AmuroRay]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

:golf:

But seriously, the points we've made are:
- BEV are more expensive to buy than their like class-size competitors.
- The break even cost is achieved between 70,000 and 90,000 miles.
- If you can't charge at home, BEV are a pain in the ass to own.
- Winter range and recharge time suck.
- BEV are more expensive to insure.
- BEV have a higher risk of being totaled in low speed/light impact collisions.
- BEV are range and recharge speed impaired.

Most of the market sees those same points. The sale of BEV have to be incentivized via tax credits. The charging infrastructure has to be government funded because private enterprise sees no profit in it.

Feel free to counter any of them.

He won't because he clearly doesn't care what other people purchase and he's definitely not trigged by this thread.

Right?

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by eugenebmw

This will be the solution for the next 10 years Again good luck to my American friends.

Are they insured for slips, trips, and fall lawsuits from pedestrians? Perhaps this can be a new insurance coverage that EV owners can buy

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by M5Rick

Likely surplus to requirements, your Governor ought to be taking action to stop this rot.

The state governors have no say in this plus KS and MO are ultra conservative. There's no EV support here at the pollical level.

These new Telsas are rotting though. Many are covered in bird droppings and the Cybertrucks are seriously tarnished. The finish is like they've been sitting at the bottom of a lake. Really strange. Two more truckloads just showed up while I was working today.

[gblansten]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Are they insured for slips, trips, and fall lawsuits from pedestrians? Perhaps this can be a new insurance coverage that EV owners can buy

There are certainly so many risks in life. For instance, you’re at risk for bilateral carpal tunnel from clutching your pearls. I guess the real question is, would you buy insurance to cover that?

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by gblansten

There are certainly so many risks in life. For instance, you’re at risk for bilateral carpal tunnel from clutching your pearls. I guess the real question is, would you buy insurance to cover that?

Considering sue-happy nature of the US, I certainly would if I were an EV owner running a cable, box, etc. across a public walkway or similar, especially one used by the public.

Kids will certainly enjoy unplugging, cutting, etc. the cords from these cars as well.

[gblansten]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Considering sue-happy nature of the US, I certainly would if I were an EV owner running a cable, box, etc. across a public walkway or similar, especially one used by the public.

Kids will certainly enjoy unplugging, cutting, etc. the cords from these cars as well.

If you are feeling numbness in your hands that spares your fifth and the fifth facing side of your fourth digit then the carpal tunnel is well on it way.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by gblansten

If you are feeling numbness in your hands that spares your fifth and the fifth facing side of your fourth digit then the carpal tunnel is well on it way.

You drinking again?

[Efthreeoh]

Originally Posted by AmuroRay

He won't because he clearly doesn't care what other people purchase and he's definitely not trigged by this thread.

Right?

Right.

I like to have adult conversations about the impact of the hoped-for dramatic drop in reliance on carbon fuels and how that will impact society and the economy as a whole. The petrochemical industry just can't stop making gasoline, diesel, and heating oil while at the same time not reducing the volume of jet fuel, plastics, and industrial chemicals made from the oil refining process. None of this is as easy as buyers just deciding to buy an electric vehicle next time they go car shopping. And the second and third tier (used car) market is not capable of adopting EV for numerous reasons.

But when someone comes in the thread thinking it's just an EV haters group echo chamber circle jerk, they are not willing to change non-EV advocates minds. Perhaps they aren't prepared to have the in-depth conversation required counter what people like me see as significant societal shift that forced mass adoption will bring. Trying to equate this to 1900 and transition from flesh-powered vehicles and machinery to ICE power and saying it will all turn out alright as it did last time is immature and ignorant of the modern situation.

Asking difficult questions material to the issue of mass EV adoption is not hate, but rather it is responsible concern.

[gblansten]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

You drinking again?

If you are looking for a drinking buddy on the internet that is late stage alcoholism.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by gblansten

If you are looking for a drinking buddy on the internet that is late stage alcoholism.

Well played.

[gblansten]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

Well played.

Just kidding around.