Stock market tips and experiences

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by chassis

What is your view?

I would remain data driven. If inflation remains around the 2% mark going forward, I would continue the march towards neutral Fed funds rate.

A data driven approach demands nothing else. I might slow the roll, as I wait on data.

You?

[chassis]

Focus on what I can control - participation in the market. Economy is doing fine and uncertainty has been reduced for the moment.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by chassis

Focus on what I can control - participation in the market. Economy is doing fine and uncertainty has been reduced for the moment.

You guys think uncertainty has been reduced?

how?

there is still a ton of uncertainty irrelevant of politics and who is in charge...

But now with Trump winning... How do you know the tariffs won't be put in day one? How do you know how the tax cut extension will be handled? How do you know Jpowell isn't getting kicked out? Control what you can but there is an enormous ton of uncertainty at the moment... one of the ideas touted on the campaign trail was maximization of our exports which as stated by vance would be done thru the devaluation of the $...

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

You guys think uncertainty has been reduced?

how?

there is still a ton of uncertainty irrelevant of politics and who is in charge...

But now with Trump winning... How do you know the tariffs won't be put in day one? How do you know how the tax cut extension will be handled? How do you know Jpowell isn't getting kicked out? Control what you can but there is an enormous ton of uncertainty at the moment... one of the ideas touted on the campaign trail was maximization of our exports which as stated by vance would be done thru the devaluation of the $...

Two different sets of policies were in play; one has been eliminated. That reduced uncertainty.

The policies of greatest concern to the markets were the talk of an unrealized gains tax, a wealth tax, and increases in business income tax rates and realized capital gains tax rates. Each of those is a direct hit to stocks. I think the probability of them being enacted was priced in the market more than I had realized (masked by general market performance).

Tariffs may be put in place, but they likely will not be across the board. Targeted at countries/industries that could produce domestically, so there would be (a) substitutes available that would dampen the price effect in the US, and (b) benefits to the US companies that operate under those tariffs. That is a positive scenario for the market, but not the only scenario.

There is still uncertainty about the TCJA expirations at the end of 2025, other tax proposals, and economic growth prospects along with inflation and the impact of massive reductions in the federal government size (spending also declines and that is contractive for the economy in the short term). Again, these need to be enacted and there are significant barriers to that.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

Two different sets of policies were in play; one has been eliminated. That reduced uncertainty.

The policies of greatest concern to the markets were the talk of an unrealized gains tax, a wealth tax, and increases in business income tax rates and realized capital gains tax rates. Each of those is a direct hit to stocks. I think the probability of them being enacted was priced in the market more than I had realized (masked by general market performance).

Tariffs may be put in place, but they likely will not be across the board. Targeted at countries/industries that could produce domestically, so there would be (a) substitutes available that would dampen the price effect in the US, and (b) benefits to the US companies that operate under those tariffs. That is a positive scenario for the market, but not the only scenario.

There is still uncertainty about the TCJA expirations at the end of 2025, other tax proposals, and economic growth prospects along with inflation and the impact of massive reductions in the federal government size (spending also declines and that is contractive for the economy in the short term). Again, these need to be enacted and there are significant barriers to that.

I think we both voted for the same person so this isn't a political discussion but rather an economic one... if you put 2 and 2 together, the plan forward is actually quite simple-

1. Extend TCJA w probably some form of corp tax cuts
2. Immediate pressure to lower rates with high chance of a new fed chair
3. Potential tariffs which would bring back inflation in combo w the rate reduction
4. Money printing and MBS purchases right back on the table.
5. Some spending will be cut but not remotely enough to offset the tax credits and the deficit will continue to sky rocket.

All of this will have very positive effects on the stock market / wall street for obvious reasons... I think likely this will have the opposite effect on everyday working folks and main street. If unemployment continues to falter it will only get worse.