Stock market tips and experiences

[David70]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I wish i could continue to laugh but it's almost time to cry now lol...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/us-t...key-data-.html

what was that interest rate drop about again lol? jpow continues to be in a tough spot

I don't see a lot of things to cry about? Retail sales up .4% when .3% was expected. Economy might be good enough to not have a rate cut, not seeing this as a big negative. Economy moving along ok doesn't mean we need a rate increase and it's one month of data.

Yields took a leg up after consumer spending figures came in hotter than forecast. Retail sales showed a rise of 0.4% in September, above the estimate of 0.3% from economists polled by Dow Jones. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.5%, also higher than the consensus expectation of 0.1%.

Weekly jobless claims, meanwhile, fell to 241,000, according to separate data released Thursday. Taken together, both data points paint a picture of a resilient economy.

“Real wage growth and underlying demand for goods and services are overshadowing negative sentiment,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “The economy continues to accelerate thanks to the U.S. consumer, and may improve further as lower fuel prices kick in. Today’s numbers make a recession look even less likely.”

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by David70

I don't see a lot of things to cry about? Retail sales up .4% when .3% was expected. Economy might be good enough to not have a rate cut, not seeing this as a big negative. Economy moving along ok doesn't mean we need a rate increase and it's one month of data.

the only thing I gather (assuming all data is true) is that the rate cut was very premature...

unless we see revised data in a week lol

[David70]

Originally Posted by ASAP

the only thing I gather (assuming all data is true) is that the rate cut was very premature...

unless we see revised data in a week lol

I don't see any data that shows the rate cut was very premature, 1 week of employment numbers, one month sales numbers slightly above what was expected. Fed isn't trying to reduce sales but instead sales prices.

I don't see any alarming data.

[DrVenture]

Ir seems evident that many people fail to understand the difference between the FED funds rate and long term treasuries. Or the relationship between them and other factors.

Short term rates should typically run below long term rates. Hence, lowering the FED funds rate, while the 10-yr advances is a return to a normal yield curve.

“Real wage growth and underlying demand for goods and services are overshadowing negative sentiment,” is an indication that the FED did not go too far with rate hikes. They are in a perfect position to wait on data and act (or do nothing) based on the results. Jobs are strong and inflation subdued.

More from the link provided:

“The economy continues to accelerate thanks to the U.S. consumer, and may improve further as lower fuel prices kick in. Today’s numbers make a recession look even less likely.”

"Weekly jobless claims, meanwhile, fell to 241,000, according to separate data released Thursday. Taken together, both data points paint a picture of a resilient economy."

"Yields took a leg up after consumer spending figures came in hotter than forecast. Retail sales showed a rise of 0.4% in September, above the estimate of 0.3% from economists polled by Dow Jones. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.5%, also higher than the consensus expectation of 0.1%."

This is not a picture of a weak consumer, as some have suggested.

[XutvJet]

Nobody knows what's really going to happen in the market. It's all speculation, estimates, and prior history to develop an educated guess. I've always found it quite funny when market analysts put so much weight into a sub 1% movement in employment, growth, etc. especially movements of 0.1%. LOL

Consumers are likely spending again because many prices have fallen and there are more deals to be had as many companies and manufacturers realize that they got really greedy and have had to pull back prices to order to move their products/inventory.