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09-27-2024, 12:52 PM | #8405 | |
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09-27-2024, 12:59 PM | #8406 | |
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https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...pdf?sc_lang=en Namely take note of consumer CC debt and balances. Also... airports have been crowded for years (outside of the few Covid years)... sadly I would argue that's an infrastructure issue that hasn't been catered to a growing population for at least 20 years.
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09-27-2024, 02:13 PM | #8408 | |
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You appear to be implying that no consumers have exposure to "Wall Street"? I am a consumer and most certainly do. I am guessing that you do too. Unemployment has ticked up slightly from historic lows. 4.2% is hardly problematic. I am not here to argue with anyone. Simply to post relevant information. Are you disputing something that I posted? If so, identify that with which you take issue (within context) and provide supporting data. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...il%20of%202020. "Wages in the United States increased 6.30 percent in August of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. Wage Growth in the United States averaged 6.19 percent from 1960 until 2024". Average hourly wages rose .4% MoM in August.
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09-27-2024, 02:24 PM | #8409 | |
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What is your actual concern? Be specific. Are you struggling? Your family members? Or does this have something to do with politics or distaste for the FED? Most should be pretty happy with 6% wage growth, 3% GDP, a 75% drop in inflation, 4.2% unemployment and interest rates coming down.
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09-27-2024, 02:37 PM | #8410 |
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Not to be a complete a-hole, but after driving economy cars, and keeping them 10-15 years, while investing and saving to put my kid through college (debt free) and pay off my home in 12 years, while funding my 401K to the max as a one-income "average" household, I have little sympathy for the "average consumer" who drove expensive cars and saddled their kids with education debt, while tapping their home equity.
I know a whole lot of people who made a whole lot more money than me and seem to not have a pot to piss in. I came to the conclusion years ago, that they couldn't be helped. In many cases, they wouldn't be helped. The common refrain being, "Don't tell me what to do". My response being, "Okay".
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09-27-2024, 03:16 PM | #8411 | |
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09-27-2024, 03:34 PM | #8412 |
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My home is only a small fraction of my total net worth. So, I don't even think about it.
Caring about peoples wealth as it pertains to their well-being is a losing strategy. I choose to care about it just as much as they do - which appears to be little at all. So many lifelong friends share their info with me. I know what they do, how much they make and how they allocate it. All are typical middle-class and almost all are dual-income. Many average folks are doing just fine. Some struggle despite average expenses and $150-200K household incomes, in this medium-cost Midwest environment. The government is not the source of their problems with money. Their problems relate to planning and self-restraint and sound financial judgment. They tend to blame external forces. But cannot explain why people just like them are doing better. Certainly the government did not force these people to "overbuy". As you say, "most of America overbought", maybe they need less sympathy and more tough love? I am not "omitting" anything, nor am I focusing on a statistical slice that serves my narrative. I posted an average. I also believe it is good when the majority of wage growth occurs at the bottom of the wage spectrum. Those are the folks who will benefit most. I put my empathy where it may be most deserved. It is about time they get their due.
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09-27-2024, 04:25 PM | #8413 |
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Government and FED policies are universal. They impact everyone in similar financial strata the exact same way.
As an example, I have a friend who constantly laments that he would be doing so much better, "if it weren't for the lousy public school system". I ask him, "Was there anyone, at all, in his same class and school and family situation who did really well?" His answer is, "Sure, of course". I then ask, "Why not you, then?". Similarly, government and FED policy affect all middle-class average families the same exact way. If some measurable percentage of them are doing very well, then the differences must be in the individuals choices and life decisions. But, no one wants to hear that they may be personally responsible for their own circumstances, particularly when those circumstances are not favorable. They will take full credit when the opposite is true, though. Here is the rub: accepting that one is personally responsible (generally speaking) for their own outcome is the key to success. It is what enables an individual to take full control of their life. You cannot change what others will do. But, you can alter your own trajectory. Or at least that is how I choose to approach life and financial success.
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09-27-2024, 07:34 PM | #8414 | |
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So we go back to our original question here about the fed's recent actions. Why are we currently lowering interest rates and how is this to benefit the population of the US? The answer is it doesn't... the treasury yield was already priced in for mortgage rates and this is a free break to corporations, heavy balance sheets and to save banks and CRE which are on the crux of imploding if this doesn't happen. Similarly, it's to help refinance the interest on debt that the govt is currently paying... it's irrelevant that you say we have 2.2% inflation when the past 5 years had over 30% cumulative inflation... lowering interest rates doesn't resolve any of that nor will it... nor will it help folks buy homes who don't already have them (not without far more aggressive action that the govt will not undertake at this time). Why? because they have again chosen the winners here... which are the wealthy and asset holders... you can argue that as much as you want, but that is just reality. Corporations are doing everything they can right now to save on opex costs which means reducing salaries... the layoffs allow them to rehire at much lower rates which is actively happening... and don't talk about wage growth again for starbucks pourers.
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09-28-2024, 09:54 AM | #8417 | |
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I used to always hold a decent amount in small cap funds, as they performed better than S&P and many other sectors. The "word" is that small caps perform better in an environment with rates coming down. Maybe they will outperform again. I still have a small allocation to OTCFX. It underperformed nearly every other sector fund that I own in 2023 and YTD 2024. And for the past 10 years. I will likely sell the remainder soon, after retirement, when the cap gains will have less tax consequences. One advantage of holding small caps in a taxable account is little/no dividends on an annual basis. Another way to get small cap exposure is through an extended market index fund.
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09-28-2024, 10:32 AM | #8418 |
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That was you. I agreed and have no problem with it.
One can lament the cards they are dealt, or play them to win.
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