Stock market tips and experiences

[murderspice]

Originally Posted by ASAP

also the pharmaceutical ads have to go asap and be tightly controlled.

You buried the lede there.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Anecdotal one-liners & paint your own picture are non-value added and invalid.

All on FRED. Do your homework.

[dradernh]

Originally Posted by ASAP

doctors can't even spend time with you because again Insurance companies won't pay or say you can only spend x amount of time with a patient.

That certainly describes the nation's premier medical insurance provider, the one it is often suggested should be covering all of us. If it did, given the all-too-common lack of sufficient medical providers, the measure of the time to get in to be seen for the first time at a practice might rise from months to quarters.

That outfit no longer pays for physicals, either annually or otherwise. Instead, we get "wellness exams."

Now that I'm 75, it seems I'm entitled to one of those every year instead of every other year. And yes, they fit into short time slots; at least that's what they seem like compared to how long a genuinely complete physical exam used to take, and that's not including the in-person follow-up consultation after the test results came back.

There are options, of course, and they generally would cost more out-of-pocket. I've scratched the surface of going that route, but am a bit lazy by nature, and it would take some work to figure out exactly which alternative(s) would best suit me and the wife.

I will say the following about insurance reimbursements (in this case, Medicare): the wife spent 21 days in an ICU in December of 2022, and I naturally wondered what billing would be like, especially how much. Duh. Welcome to the Twilight Zone, but the good kind of Twilight Zone! Specifically, we received a single bill 201 days after her discharge. It showed a charge of $3,643 and that we owed $1,880 of that amount. There was no information or detail at all; the bill was a one-liner. I kept waiting for the other shoes to drop: surgeons, PT, specialists, etc. Never happened. That one was a total black box, and clearly not one I'm complaining about.

[chassis]

PPI inflation good. Most categories have a 2-handle. Goods PPI inflation prices dropped (deflated).

Initial claims good.

WEI lifting off again good.


FRED

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I know it's not great as I have experience with the European system and family in Canada... however you will get Emergency care if needed for cheap.

Whearas in the USA, it's a max for profit Casino that is controlled and ran by Insurance companies lol... doctors can't even spend time with you because again Insurance companies won't pay or say you can only spend x amount of time with a patient. For anyone arguing... ask any DR when things got worse, ACA is universally the answer... it didn't fix anything but broke a lot. The only other real option today is go full blast with single payer... also the pharmaceutical ads have to go asap and be tightly controlled.

The Sun, Daily Mail, and Mirror (via their web sites) report emergency response is horrible. Just getting from where one is stricken to the hospital is a hit or miss thing. ER response time is measured by a calendar.

But once at the hospital there are too many reports of people left waiting in the hallway for sometimes hours before even being seen.

The US system has its flaws, but single payer will make things worse.

[ASAP]

I just want to make sure I understand... are folks arguing the US healthcare system is good lol?

1) The most expensive system in the world.
2) A system where becoming a DR is more expensive than anywhere.
3) A system where one medical debt can leave you bankrupt.
4) A system where insurance controls your healthcare.
5) A system that has no formal pricing.
6) A system that is tied into an employer and has blackout dates on when you can even get insurance?
7) a system that promotes ads for health insurance and pharmaceuticals lol?
8) a system that backtracks your earnings from prior year to see if you are even eligible for cheaper insurance

OK have fun folks lol... i can't argue with you

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by chassis

PPI inflation good. Most categories have a 2-handle. Goods PPI inflation prices dropped (deflated). FRED

what does that tell you? it means companies aka greedflation is still happening and you are consistently getting ripped off at the expense of corporate margins... this doesn't resolve anything for the consumer aka most of us

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by ASAP

we are in stagflation... just no one wants to admit it... gdp is growing only in some sectors, inflation is still flying and layoffs are happening everywhere...

the only fix that I am aware of is to completely flush the cash out of the system... that can only be done by raising rates again OR raising taxes... no one seems to want to do that for fear of crippling employment and the fake stock market gains... not sure where we go from here

Yeah, that is the place the powers that be will not go, for sure, as it is the absolute worst possible scenario. But it appears we are there.

Higher-for-longer, or even higher-than-higher-for-longer, is the only solution. That will ultimately flush the money out as paper losses (in CRE, for example) turn into real ones, the government's ability to endlessly line people's pockets to buy their votes will be limited, and businesses will scale back spending further. But, so much economic activity is consumption-based now there is really only one thing that will kill the beast; unemployment. Several million people need to lose their jobs, unfortunately. Not sure when it will happen, but it will if interest rates remain here (or go even higher).

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Yeah, that is the place the powers that be will not go, for sure, as it is the absolute worst possible scenario. But it appears we are there.

Higher-for-longer, or even higher-than-higher-for-longer, is the only solution. That will ultimately flush the money out as paper losses (in CRE, for example) turn into real ones, the government's ability to endlessly line people's pockets to buy their votes will be limited, and businesses will scale back spending further. But, so much economic activity is consumption-based now there is really only one thing that will kill the beast; unemployment. Several million people need to lose their jobs, unfortunately. Not sure when it will happen, but it will if interest rates remain here (or go even higher).

yea i just dont see any other way out or why people are too blind to see this... you cannot still have markups on cars that sold at massive discounts prior to the pandemic... it makes 0 sense

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I just want to make sure I understand... are folks arguing the US healthcare system is good lol?

"Good" is relative. Is it? Maybe, but it could certainly be improved. I've seen first-hand, though, what government-run single payer systems do to people. It's not pretty. (Don't get me started on how the UK's NHS killed my father in law.) Ultimately, all of those systems devolve into bloated, inefficient, soulless bureaurcracies that ration health care for the people that the "serve". It's telling, I think, that in all of the countries that people point to as having wonderful government-run healthcare systems, everyone with means has supplemental private insurance that actually allows them to get care when they want it, and not when some bureaucrat says they can have it.

The bottom line is that, if you have insurance (even Medicare) and are savvy enough to manage your way through it, the US healthcare system is by far the best in the world.

[bagekko]

Originally Posted by chassis

All on FRED. Do your homework.

Apparel inflation near zero. - NOT TRUE

Food inflation no problem. - NOT TRUE, Opinion, Meats inflation still a problem, plus shrinkflation.

Construction employment is red hot and likewise production of building materials. Re-shoring of manufacturing is real and is on fire. - Up less than 1% in March, sustainability of the trend is TBD, so on "fire" is opinion..... unless you consider re-shoring to include Mexico which is the hottest production market probably.

[bagekko]

When they first announced potential rate cut schedule, I was like yeah ain't gonna happen and not a good idea. I think many experts agree there should not be any rate cuts this year. Now the media is oh looks like 2 at best, they need to shut up and giving the public false expectations. Rates are not even that high and if there is 1 or 2 cuts this year it's only because of political pressure and could cause some trouble for 2024-25, I really hope there is no cut before the election we still need time especially with continuing global situation. It's been what 9 months since the last rate increase, if it doesn't look like everything is good, then you should of raised rates again.

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Yeah, that is the place the powers that be will not go, for sure, as it is the absolute worst possible scenario. But it appears we are there.

Higher-for-longer, or even higher-than-higher-for-longer, is the only solution. That will ultimately flush the money out as paper losses (in CRE, for example) turn into real ones, the government's ability to endlessly line people's pockets to buy their votes will be limited, and businesses will scale back spending further. But, so much economic activity is consumption-based now there is really only one thing that will kill the beast; unemployment. Several million people need to lose their jobs, unfortunately. Not sure when it will happen, but it will if interest rates remain here (or go even higher).

[dradernh]

Originally Posted by bagekko

public...expectations

It was reported in a recent issue of The Economist that this past February Americans expected inflation to run at 5.3% over the following 12 months.

[BMW F22]

I’m ordering Togo’s for lunch on Grubhub and it’s $15 for a small turkey sandwich; about $20 for a medium (9”). This is for pickup so the price isn’t as inflated as for delivery (it’s typically about the same as in store). Say what you will but I can’t imagine this being sustainable. I mean, how do people afford to eat when fast food is $15-20 for a meal? Mind you, this is just the sandwich without drinks and chips.

[bagekko]

I can believe it, been months since I got deli meat at the store, other day boars head roast beef 13.99lb, chicken 11.99, turkey 10.99, swiss 11.99, provo 10.99. Crazy thing was the store brand was only $1 less per pound!

I am interested to see March retail data. Since April 1 grocery promo amounts have increased a lot, perhaps sales were flat or lower in March?

Originally Posted by BMW F22

I’m ordering Togo’s for lunch on Grubhub and it’s $15 for a small turkey sandwich; about $20 for a medium (9”). This is for pickup so the price isn’t as inflated as for delivery (it’s typically about the same as in store). Say what you will but I can’t imagine this being sustainable. I mean, how do people afford to eat when fast food is $15-20 for a meal? Mind you, this is just the sandwich without drinks and chips.

[bagekko]

Loving the VIX jump today as now my safety hedge from Dec is almost breakeven. Considering the new global uncertainty, a VIX position isn't a horrible idea vs some sort of liquidation. But geez can't we get more than a few months to breathe.

[Our03z4]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Loving the VIX jump today as now my safety hedge from Dec is almost breakeven. Considering the new global uncertainty, a VIX position isn't a horrible idea vs some sort of liquidation. But geez can't we get more than a few months to breathe.

Be very, very careful with the VIX, it always loses its entire value over the long term. It's only meant to be held for days not months. You will lose if you hold it long at all. Watch out that you don't get caught in a reverse split, it will skim shares and will be misleading with charts.

[ASAP]

stagflation fellas- i called it- worst case scenario

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-...cent-rate.html

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by ASAP

stagflation fellas- i called it- worst case scenario

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-...cent-rate.html

Page not found. What’s the cliff note please?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Page not found. What’s the cliff note please?

they changed the link

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/25/gdp-...cent-rate.html

cliff notes - we are screwed

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

"Good" is relative. Is it? Maybe, but it could certainly be improved. I've seen first-hand, though, what government-run single payer systems do to people. It's not pretty. (Don't get me started on how the UK's NHS killed my father in law.) Ultimately, all of those systems devolve into bloated, inefficient, soulless bureaurcracies that ration health care for the people that the "serve". It's telling, I think, that in all of the countries that people point to as having wonderful government-run healthcare systems, everyone with means has supplemental private insurance that actually allows them to get care when they want it, and not when some bureaucrat says they can have it.

The bottom line is that, if you have insurance (even Medicare) and are savvy enough to manage your way through it, the US healthcare system is by far the best in the world.

Well said.

Sorry to read about your FIL. As I have mentioned I've come upon too many horror stories in the UK papers about NHS failings. And this includes death due to lack of timely care or improper care, bad diagnosis, botched medical procedures, etc.

[dmatre]

Originally Posted by RockCrusher

Well said.

Sorry to read about your FIL. As I have mentioned I've come upon too many horror stories in the UK papers about NHS failings. And this includes death due to lack of timely care or improper care, bad diagnosis, botched medical procedures, etc.

And obviously we don’t have improper care, misdiagnosis or botched medical procedures here, otherwise malpractice insurance rates would be sky h……. hmmmm