Stock market tips and experiences

[bagekko]

Get out of your bubble, go outside look around and talk to people.

Originally Posted by chassis

No data links from non-MSM sources. Not terribly convincing.

[bagekko]

Here's some non-msm official govt stats logic.

US border crossing immigration was almost 3 million in 2023, of which were 1.7M working adults. No official stats on how many of them have jobs now, but official stat is the US added 2.7M jobs in 2023, safe assumption we'll say half that is from border crossers. Then you need to add in about 300k legal immigrants and some unknown number of undetected border crossers. The impact is a significant portion of GDP growth and has an impact of inflation, more people more demand.

Now here's how this impacts the real world observations below. Unemployment for those 16-24yrs old is trending up, above 2017, 18, 19 levels pre pandemic. Which is putting more financial responsibility on their parents.

Excess immigration has an impact on the lower end wage growth. More people looking then the less you need to increase wages.

Sure the economy is growing and the job numbers look "great". But for many Americans today their situation is not better than yesterday.

Originally Posted by bagekko

Over 50% of adult children in 20s or 30s receive some financial support from their parents. Over 50% of young adults 18-29 are still living at home. Both of these are eating into their parents savings which will hurt them down the road. Which is also the driver why many adults 65+ are still working.

The struggles of Z, Millennial, whatever are real. In my neighborhood there are more 20 something kids living with their parents than those who have moved out. Of my friends over half of them provide support to kids who graduated college or working without a degree. Student debt and housing costs are a big factor young people struggle with, also their financial dysmorphia that they think they should have all the nice things and a high paying job out the gate.

[BMW F22]

I don’t understand how people are supposedly struggling and getting laid off whole the BLS is pumping out numbers that surpass estimates.

https://stocks.apple.com/AEw7p0HI9SwatWgVWfclgzA

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

I don’t understand how people are supposedly struggling and getting laid off whole the BLS is pumping out numbers that surpass estimates.

https://stocks.apple.com/AEw7p0HI9SwatWgVWfclgzA

It's the classic unemployment number spin.... the govt gives convenient numbers where they can. There is little detail in # of job people are holding, how long before folks are dropped off of unemployment if they haven't found a job and most importantly little detail provided in the sector / field the jobs are in and what salary they pay or what constitutes part time / full time.

The reality is that currently for just about any well paying white collar job... the competition is fierce and the opportunities are tiny.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Here's some non-msm official govt stats logic.

US border crossing immigration was almost 3 million in 2023, of which were 1.7M working adults. No official stats on how many of them have jobs now, but official stat is the US added 2.7M jobs in 2023, safe assumption we'll say half that is from border crossers. Then you need to add in about 300k legal immigrants and some unknown number of undetected border crossers. The impact is a significant portion of GDP growth and has an impact of inflation, more people more demand.

Now here's how this impacts the real world observations below. Unemployment for those 16-24yrs old is trending up, above 2017, 18, 19 levels pre pandemic. Which is putting more financial responsibility on their parents.

Excess immigration has an impact on the lower end wage growth. More people looking then the less you need to increase wages.

Sure the economy is growing and the job numbers look "great". But for many Americans today their situation is not better than yesterday.

There is even more to this story... check where the immigration is coming from and the top countries include Mexico, China and India... these are not white collar immigrants but lower wage, unskilled workers... point being, very few people are immigrating here for high wage / skilled jobs at this point because they aren't much better than in their home country in terms of pay vs cost of living... so all that is left is lower level immigration to fill jobs that few here want to do (and of course so our corporations can easily underpay workers as well).

[bagekko]

Also they conveniently don't mention that for the jobs added in 2024, sure overall it's up, but positive 1m from part time jobs while negative 300k for full time.

Originally Posted by ASAP

It's the classic unemployment number spin.... the govt gives convenient numbers where they can. There is little detail in # of job people are holding, how long before folks are dropped off of unemployment if they haven't found a job and most importantly little detail provided in the sector / field the jobs are in and what salary they pay or what constitutes part time / full time.

The reality is that currently for just about any well paying white collar job... the competition is fierce and the opportunities are tiny.

[chassis]

To the Negative Nancys: paint your own picture of the economy using data from non-MSM sources.

Anecdotal one-liners as are being given are non-value added.

[bagekko]

Non-MSM source, plain as day.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea06.htm

Also if you look at this report, FT employment down 1.5m jobs Mar 2024 vs Mar 2023, PT up almost 2m over the same time, and people with multiple jobs up 500k over same time.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Originally Posted by chassis

To the Negative Nancys: paint your own picture of the economy using data from non-MSM sources.

Anecdotal one-liners as are being given are non-value added.

[ASAP]

chassis is going to be really shocked when the inflation report drops tomorrow lol...

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Non-MSM source, plain as day.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea06.htm

Also if you look at this report, FT employment down 1.5m jobs Mar 2024 vs Mar 2023, PT up almost 2m over the same time, and people with multiple jobs up 500k over same time.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

The job landscape is changing, especially for my 19 y/o's son's generation. A lot of people are going to work full-time by having two part-time jobs.

I'm closing in on 50 and when I was 46, I voluntarily took a 20% pay cut to go to 32-hour/wk part-time (max hours I can work) vs being full-time and working 50-55 hours/wk. It was just becoming too stressful. I plan to cut my hours down to 20-24 hours in about 2.5 years and start a side gig. In 5 years, I will retire from my current job.

This is future for many in the US and in other developed countries. Many people my age (Gen-Xers) are waking up to the idea that fulltime work is a scam, kills your health, kills your fun time/family time, wrecks marriages, etc. They saw it with their Baby Boomer parents and got a big taste themselves and have woken up to the reality that its largely sucks and isn't worth it. A majority of my friends are envious of my work schedule. Yes, I had to make do with less, but I'm FAR happier and my wife and I have always lived below our means. The Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers will probably go down in history as living a life of excess compared to prior and future generations. Gen-Xers will probably go down as the most financially over-extended generation in history. My kids make do with a lot less and want less.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Non-MSM source, plain as day.

https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea06.htm

Also if you look at this report, FT employment down 1.5m jobs Mar 2024 vs Mar 2023, PT up almost 2m over the same time, and people with multiple jobs up 500k over same time.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

The data is valid. What is your narrative? What do you want your readers to know?

[ASAP]

where is chassis at lol?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/cpi-...-in-march.html

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

The job landscape is changing, especially for my 19 y/o's son's generation. A lot of people are going to work full-time by having two part-time jobs.

I'm closing in on 50 and when I was 46, I voluntarily took a 20% pay cut to go to 32-hour/wk part-time (max hours I can work) vs being full-time and working 50-55 hours/wk. It was just becoming too stressful. I plan to cut my hours down to 20-24 hours in about 2.5 years and start a side gig. In 5 years, I will retire from my current job.

This is future for many in the US and in other developed countries. Many people my age (Gen-Xers) are waking up to the idea that fulltime work is a scam, kills your health, kills your fun time/family time, wrecks marriages, etc. They saw it with their Baby Boomer parents and got a big taste themselves and have woken up to the reality that its largely sucks and isn't worth it. A majority of my friends are envious of my work schedule. Yes, I had to make do with less, but I'm FAR happier and my wife and I have always lived below our means. The Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers will probably go down in history as living a life of excess compared to prior and future generations. Gen-Xers will probably go down as the most financially over-extended generation in history. My kids make do with a lot less and want less.

the real fix for any and all of this... is well a proper healthcare system that isn't tied to an employer... single payer at a reasonable cost... at that point flexibility will be king... i am at a point where nationalizing the entire healthcare system and medical schools may be a decent idea

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by ASAP

the real fix for any and all of this... is well a proper healthcare system that isn't tied to an employer... single payer at a reasonable cost... at that point flexibility will be king... i am at a point where nationalizing the entire healthcare system and medical schools may be a decent idea

The horror stories I read online about the UK's National Health Service (and closer to home Canada's Medicare system) make me extremely fearful of a US nationalized healthcare system.

And to nationalize medical schools in the US would turn out doctors who would tailor their health care to an individual based the patient's efforts to fight climate change and how religiously he follows the DEI doctorine.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by RockCrusher

The horror stories I read online about the UK's National Health Service (and closer to home Canada's Medicare system) make me extremely fearful of a US nationalized healthcare system.

And to nationalize medical schools in the US would turn out doctors who would tailor their health care to an individual based the patient's efforts to fight climate change and how religiously he follows the DEI doctorine.

I know it's not great as I have experience with the European system and family in Canada... however you will get Emergency care if needed for cheap.

Whearas in the USA, it's a max for profit Casino that is controlled and ran by Insurance companies lol... doctors can't even spend time with you because again Insurance companies won't pay or say you can only spend x amount of time with a patient. For anyone arguing... ask any DR when things got worse, ACA is universally the answer... it didn't fix anything but broke a lot. The only other real option today is go full blast with single payer... also the pharmaceutical ads have to go asap and be tightly controlled.

[bagekko]

I hear ya and agree, I am so done with 5 days 40+ hours for a while and will be cutting back soon. But the corp world is far from changing and the class wars/animosity would be even worse. Supposedly 20% of 65+ are still working, part may be to afford but a large part is those whose whole life was working so much can't deal with retirement.

Originally Posted by XutvJet

The job landscape is changing, especially for my 19 y/o's son's generation. A lot of people are going to work full-time by having two part-time jobs.

I'm closing in on 50 and when I was 46, I voluntarily took a 20% pay cut to go to 32-hour/wk part-time (max hours I can work) vs being full-time and working 50-55 hours/wk. It was just becoming too stressful. I plan to cut my hours down to 20-24 hours in about 2.5 years and start a side gig. In 5 years, I will retire from my current job.

This is future for many in the US and in other developed countries. Many people my age (Gen-Xers) are waking up to the idea that fulltime work is a scam, kills your health, kills your fun time/family time, wrecks marriages, etc. They saw it with their Baby Boomer parents and got a big taste themselves and have woken up to the reality that its largely sucks and isn't worth it. A majority of my friends are envious of my work schedule. Yes, I had to make do with less, but I'm FAR happier and my wife and I have always lived below our means. The Baby Boomers and Gen-Xers will probably go down in history as living a life of excess compared to prior and future generations. Gen-Xers will probably go down as the most financially over-extended generation in history. My kids make do with a lot less and want less.

[bagekko]

Yup, all the Drs we know agree system is more broken now.

Originally Posted by ASAP

I know it's not great as I have experience with the European system and family in Canada... however you will get Emergency care if needed for cheap.

Whearas in the USA, it's a max for profit Casino that is controlled and ran by Insurance companies lol... doctors can't even spend time with you because again Insurance companies won't pay or say you can only spend x amount of time with a patient. For anyone arguing... ask any DR when things got worse, ACA is universally the answer... it didn't fix anything but broke a lot. The only other real option today is go full blast with single payer... also the pharmaceutical ads have to go asap and be tightly controlled.

[bagekko]

LOL. Jack rates not lower them, I love getting 2k+ in interest a month.

All I want to happen this year is job market to stabilize (corp layoffs to stop), stock market slightly correct not plummet, rates to stay the same, and inflation to stop, economy to normalize. Don't think anyone knows how that can happen.

Originally Posted by ASAP

where is chassis at lol?

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/cpi-...-in-march.html

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by bagekko

LOL. Jack rates not lower them, I love getting 2k+ in interest a month.

All I want to happen this year is job market to stabilize (corp layoffs to stop), stock market slightly correct not plummet, rates to stay the same, and inflation to stop, economy to normalize. Don't think anyone knows how that can happen.

we are in stagflation... just no one wants to admit it... gdp is growing only in some sectors, inflation is still flying and layoffs are happening everywhere...

the only fix that I am aware of is to completely flush the cash out of the system... that can only be done by raising rates again OR raising taxes... no one seems to want to do that for fear of crippling employment and the fake stock market gains... not sure where we go from here

[chassis]

Flat inflation print YOY. Nothing to be afraid of.

Apparel inflation near zero.

Food inflation no problem.

Medical services inflation surprisingly is in the target range.

Housing (shelter) is the issue. This is because of a well-documented and years-long housing shortage which started well before the situation a few years ago, and initiated by under building post-GFC.

Construction employment is red hot and likewise production of building materials. Re-shoring of manufacturing is real and is on fire.

Lemonade can always be made whenever lemons appear.

[bagekko]

Anecdotal one-liners & paint your own picture are non-value added and invalid.

Originally Posted by chassis

Flat inflation print YOY. Nothing to be afraid of.

Apparel inflation near zero.

Food inflation no problem.

Medical services inflation surprisingly is in the target range.

Housing (shelter) is the issue. This is because of a well-documented and years-long housing shortage which started well before the situation a few years ago, and initiated by under building post-GFC.

Construction employment is red hot and likewise production of building materials. Re-shoring of manufacturing is real and is on fire.

Lemonade can always be made whenever lemons appear.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Anecdotal one-liners & paint your own picture are non-value added and invalid.

for as long as I can remember - this guys has either made stuff up or when presented with facts, asked to use different sources - when done so, he claims it's made up even though they are not MSM as he likes to call them