Stock market tips and experiences

[c1pher]

Has anyone consider Vanguard's MGK ETF?

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by c1pher

Has anyone consider Vanguard's MGK ETF?

No, but that's b/c I own all of the top 10 holdings, and some others, in that ETF. If I didn't, and wanted to jump on the Mega Cap bandwagon, that would be my choice. Though, I would have wanted to make it a couple of years ago; not sure how much legs some of those companies have left.

BTW, funny quote from Palantir CEO the other day after a big contract win announcement drove their stock up nearly 10% in a day:

“I love burning the short sellers,” Karp told CNBC’s Sara Eisen on “Money Movers.” “Almost nothing makes a human happier than taking the lines of cocaine away from these short sellers, who like, are going short on a truly great American company. Not just ours, but just love pulling down great American companies so they can pay for their coke.”

I love that guy. And the stock.

[ASAP]

hell yea - wholesale inflation just keeps on going-

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/prod...-february.html

[chassis]

Wholesale deflation keeps on going.

-1.2% LTM. Also known as deflation.

13 consecutive months of PPI deflation.

Prices are sinking (deflating) at the producer level on a year over year basis.

Iron ore
Aluminum
Natgas

All deflating.

[chassis]

And WEI floating higher (good for everyone).

[bagekko]

Where you getting this from?

Cause
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/prod...-february.html

Originally Posted by chassis

Wholesale deflation keeps on going.

-1.2% LTM. Also known as deflation.

13 consecutive months of PPI deflation.

Prices are sinking (deflating) at the producer level on a year over year basis.

Iron ore
Aluminum
Natgas

All deflating.

[bagekko]

Higher just the past week? Cause it was below the 13W average 4 of the past 6 weeks.

Originally Posted by chassis

And WEI floating higher (good for everyone).

[chassis]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Higher just the past week? Cause it was below the 13W average 4 of the past 6 weeks.

1-, 5-, and 10-year charts look great. When in doubt, zoom out.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by bagekko

Where you getting this from?

Cause
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/14/prod...-february.html

St. Louis Fed, aka FRED.

MSM not credible.

[Our03z4]

Originally Posted by chassis

St. Louis Fed, aka FRED.

MSM not credible.

And they are? Just the way the FED started was borderline illegal. NEVER trust what the FED says, ever.

In his July 1832 veto message of the bill rechartering the Second Bank of the United States, President Andrew Jackson didn't hold back. Beyond characterizing the bank as hopelessly corrupt, he argued "the powers conferred upon [the bank were] ... not only unnecessary, but dangerous to the Government and the country." He went on, warning that if it continued to operate, "great evils... might flow from such a concentration of power in the hands of a few men irresponsible to the people." He argued that its power would only grow, as its leaders could "put forth their strength to influence elections or control the affairs of the nation." For Jackson, vetoing the rechartering of the bank was necessary to prevent the "prostitution of our Government."

The way it came to be again in 1913 was corrupt.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by Our03z4

And they are? Just the way the FED started was borderline illegal. NEVER trust what the FED says, ever.

In his July 1832 veto message of the bill rechartering the Second Bank of the United States, President Andrew Jackson didn't hold back. Beyond characterizing the bank as hopelessly corrupt, he argued "the powers conferred upon [the bank were] ... not only unnecessary, but dangerous to the Government and the country." He went on, warning that if it continued to operate, "great evils... might flow from such a concentration of power in the hands of a few men irresponsible to the people." He argued that its power would only grow, as its leaders could "put forth their strength to influence elections or control the affairs of the nation." For Jackson, vetoing the rechartering of the bank was necessary to prevent the "prostitution of our Government."

The way it came to be again in 1913 was corrupt.

So then who is reputable in your opinion?

[bagekko]

All those time periods are useless today, especially the 5yr cause that's right before covid and the 3.5yr mess. Even 1 year has what 4 rate increases. The only period in the last 10 which maybe you could compare now to is Jan 2019-Dec 2019, after rate increases stopped and there was a few cuts. WEI in 2019 was much better than what we are seeing in 2024.

Originally Posted by chassis

1-, 5-, and 10-year charts look great. When in doubt, zoom out.

[other_evolved]

Happy Fed Day to those who celebrate

[ASAP]

good old mr powell already panicking lol... or perhaps his handlers told him to do so

we are not ready for a rate cut at all... but the current govt debt load and commercial RE issues will force this... unfortunately to the detriment of common folk

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/fed-...rch-2024-.html

[bagekko]

They are so F'd right now, unsure of true state of the economy, near promised rate cuts but wavering so much right now which is the reason the market has been volatile in March. There might not be a rate cut until June/July, and possibility being floated by the experts of no rate cuts this year.

Kinda believing the theory they won't do jack much before Nov, then no matter who wins, big rate cuts and oh look what I did.

Just renewed CDs other day 5.5% for 5 month, and 5.3% for 12 month. Those rates suggest few if any rate cuts this year.

Originally Posted by ASAP

good old mr powell already panicking lol... or perhaps his handlers told him to do so

we are not ready for a rate cut at all... but the current govt debt load and commercial RE issues will force this... unfortunately to the detriment of common folk

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/fed-...rch-2024-.html

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by bagekko

They are so F'd right now, unsure of true state of the economy, near promised rate cuts but wavering so much right now which is the reason the market has been volatile in March. There might not be a rate cut until June/July, and possibility being floated by the experts of no rate cuts this year.

Kinda believing the theory they won't do jack much before Nov, then no matter who wins, big rate cuts and oh look what I did.

Just renewed CDs other day 5.5% for 5 month, and 5.3% for 12 month. Those rates suggest few if any rate cuts this year.

i think they know exactly whats happening
and that is a stagflationary environment mixed w bad debt that was financed w low interest rates... no idea how you get out of that though... we still have inflation yet wages are falling except at the min wage level and companies are cutting left and right to boos profits... this is driving the market... i dont know any industries doing well in retail...

the plan is simple... keep things obfuscated until the election happens... then they will be forced to drop rates and we could see inflation skyrocket again

[Chick Webb]

Nobody, but nobody (well, OK, maybe Trump), wants to use the S-word, especially in an election year. But that does seem to be where we are heading. And that is a pickle for the Fed. No good choices for getting out of it.

[medphysdave]

Spending is at an all time high, but so is consumer debt. People are maxing out credit cards to live that tiktok life. This is all going to burst in an epic bubble. If you've got a good job and been saving a bit it'll be amazing. Terrible for most though.

COVID helped companies reorganize. The strong survived. Those that managed to be profitable during that time by quickly pivoting are likely making a mint right now. Helping to cover up the broader issues.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by ASAP

good old mr powell already panicking lol... or perhaps his handlers told him to do so

we are not ready for a rate cut at all... but the current govt debt load and commercial RE issues will force this... unfortunately to the detriment of common folk

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/20/fed-...rch-2024-.html

You need to be more specific on CRE. Some sectors are hot.

Restating for the record: MSM not credible.

[chassis]

Originally Posted by bagekko

They are so F'd right now, unsure of true state of the economy, near promised rate cuts but wavering so much right now which is the reason the market has been volatile in March. There might not be a rate cut until June/July, and possibility being floated by the experts of no rate cuts this year.

Kinda believing the theory they won't do jack much before Nov, then no matter who wins, big rate cuts and oh look what I did.

Just renewed CDs other day 5.5% for 5 month, and 5.3% for 12 month. Those rates suggest few if any rate cuts this year.

What is the true state of the economy?

[bagekko]

Originally Posted by chassis

What is the true state of the economy?

Somewhere between good and bad, the true state of the economy is kinda unmeasurable right now.

It's being fueled by those still doing well, debt, and the government. But it's not sustainable.

Inflation is still outpacing wage growth. Excess immigration is big factor in keeping wages down for non-degree jobs. Opportunities for college graduates keep dropping, any current job growth is in the non degree sectors.

Inflation and shrinkflation is still a problem which the government still can not accurately measure.

More people are getting 2nd jobs to cover expenses and those previously with multiple jobs are struggling where it might of been enough before. Eventually they will run out of debt to cover.

Defaults on consumer debt are increasing and the potential to get out of control could be on the horizon.

Over 50% of adult children in 20s or 30s receive some financial support from their parents. Over 50% of young adults 18-29 are still living at home. Both of these are eating into their parents savings which will hurt them down the road. Which is also the driver why many adults 65+ are still working.

The struggles of Z, Millennial, whatever are real. In my neighborhood there are more 20 something kids living with their parents than those who have moved out. Of my friends over half of them provide support to kids who graduated college or working without a degree. Student debt and housing costs are a big factor young people struggle with, also their financial dysmorphia that they think they should have all the nice things and a high paying job out the gate.

Yet magically the market is still doing well, profits are being maintained or growing, driven by job cuts or taking advantage of inflation.

Perhaps things won't get bad but it's hard to predict as there are so many ticking time bombs we are sitting on.

[chassis]

No data links from non-MSM sources. Not terribly convincing.