Stock market tips and experiences

[dmatre]

Originally Posted by chassis

Donatello. With markets in record territory do you recommend to sell everything and go all cash?

If you were trying to time the market by selling when it hits a new high…. you’re 5 weeks late…..

[Donatello.]

Originally Posted by chassis

Donatello. With markets in record territory do you recommend to sell everything and go all cash?

Is this a joke?

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Donatello.

Is this a joke?

Not a joke. You seem like a permabear. Are you a permabear?

[ASAP]

oh man... folks judging the economy by the state of the stock market... not wage growth, true unemployment and job numbers as well as CPI... RIP lol...

Yellen and Powell are shitting in their pants over the current debt situation and commercial real estate losses that are about to come up... "worrying" about potential bank stress lol... they saved SVB / First Republic and others with immediately printing money and passing a law to create a fund to save them the moment this happened to prevent any contagion...

There are 2 ways out here -

1) A major recession filled with pain that resets everything... this will hurt everyone.

2) The govt continues to paper over the problem... inflation just keeps on up and as a result everyone continues to be poorer than before. Knowing our govt, they will do everything to default to this. This will also mean that debt just continues to sky rocket.

[tom2021]

5% interest rate will be a new normal for years to come.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by tom2021

5% interest rate will be a new normal for years to come.

The long run average has been around 4.7%....so the current environment is much closer to the "normal" versus the 2010's with ZIRP.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by tom2021

5% interest rate will be a new normal for years to come.

And it should be.

[ASAP]

knock knock

whos there?

inflation

inflation who

hot inflation again 😂

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by ASAP

knock knock

whos there?

inflation

inflation who

hot inflation again ��

I don't think we're seeing "hot" inflation. Also, there's some real data that suggests that over 40% of the inflation we saw over the last two years was the result of Greedflation and Shrinkflation and not true inflation. Basically a ton of companies took advantage of COVID to increase their revenues once the dust settled. Straight up greed. That's what many should be pissed about.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I don't think we're seeing "hot" inflation. Also, there's some real data that suggests that over 40% of the inflation we saw over the last two years was the result of Greedflation and Shrinkflation and not true inflation. Basically a ton of companies took advantage of COVID to increase their revenues once the dust settled. Straight up greed. That's what many should be pissed about.

Most inflation is coming in the form of services and housing costs (which is folks largest proportion of their monthly spend), so in essence we are still seeing inflation. I don't know why people would be concerned with egg prices over that lol... The fact that it came in hot and all interest rate moves have now been completely taken off the table indicates everyone including the fed is still worried, things can shoot back up... 1980s style.

Housing is absolutely f-kd... i have no idea how this gets fixed... we are not building enough, people are stuck in low interest rates, more inventory isn't coming aboard and the high prices / rates are precluding folks from owning. We have a true split between the owner and rent class now.

Greedflation and shrinkflation has 0 relevance to the consumer who is paying a higher price either way... price inflation is price inflation.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I don't think we're seeing "hot" inflation. Also, there's some real data that suggests that over 40% of the inflation we saw over the last two years was the result of Greedflation and Shrinkflation and not true inflation. Basically a ton of companies took advantage of COVID to increase their revenues once the dust settled. Straight up greed. That's what many should be pissed about.

There really isn’t any such thing as greedflation unless you are a politician needing to blame others for your policies. All companies always want to raise prices but rarely can because of competitive pressures. Once one makes a move up, all can. Some industries (gasoline retail) this happens fast; others there are significant lags. Over the past 20 years there were many times companies bemoaned the inability to raise prices; once inflation started they all “caught up”.

Shrinkflation is just another implementation of inflation. Generally in consumer products. Consumers may have (or are believed to have) “price points” that cause them to consider substitutes, so rather than raising prices above that point, sellers reduce quantity. This avoids “sticker shock” that was a common issue in the inflation of the 1970s. And again, if no competitor will increase prices but costs are rising, the seller has to reduce size/quantity. Most consumer products have a “price leader” in their category - big enough market share that they can set the price and all others will follow or stay just below. In cars in the US it used to be GM/Chevy, for example. Until they move up, everyone else suffers reduced margins or lowers content.

Sorry to be pedantic, just wanted to clarify this a bit.

[tgrundke]

Precisely this. "greedflation" is a political talking point - the reality is that companies will always seek to maximize profits. If consumers balk at paying, they're forced to lower prices.

The reality is that consumers have been demonstrating incredible resiliency and willingness to spend. As such, companies continue to charge.

Case in point: heavy goods like appliances. Prices spiked due to shortages during COVID, combined with the number of people updating their homes. Now, however, you can find some great deals on appliances beacuse inventory is back up and, consumer demand has dropped.

On the other hand: labor costs continue to escalate. Take home improvements - while the cost of inputs such as lumber, have dropped, the cost for labor is still elevated. The demand hasnt' slacked too much, but, there is still a shortage of skilled laborers and consumers are still willing to pay for home improvements.

In terms of inflation writ large, just wait until energy prices re-accelerate going into the spring. This also assumes there are no major shocks to the production system or transport of energy.

Housing is screwed because the entire real estate market has been artificially manipulated for the last 15 years. Unwinding this mess is going to take a lot of time - and, I suspect, voters won't allow politicians that much time. The inevitable result is that the government will put its hands into the real estate mix and skew the market even more than it already is.

Happy talk....

Originally Posted by 2000cs

There really isn’t any such thing as greedflation unless you are a politician needing to blame others for your policies. All companies always want to raise prices but rarely can because of competitive pressures. Once one makes a move up, all can. Some industries (gasoline retail) this happens fast; others there are significant lags. Over the past 20 years there were many times companies bemoaned the inability to raise prices; once inflation started they all “caught up”.

Shrinkflation is just another implementation of inflation. Generally in consumer products. Consumers may have (or are believed to have) “price points” that cause them to consider substitutes, so rather than raising prices above that point, sellers reduce quantity. This avoids “sticker shock” that was a common issue in the inflation of the 1970s. And again, if no competitor will increase prices but costs are rising, the seller has to reduce size/quantity. Most consumer products have a “price leader” in their category - big enough market share that they can set the price and all others will follow or stay just below. In cars in the US it used to be GM/Chevy, for example. Until they move up, everyone else suffers reduced margins or lowers content.

Sorry to be pedantic, just wanted to clarify this a bit.

[bagekko]

Pretty sad & pathetic the govt needs to run a SB ad calling out companies, waste of my tax dollars. Of course it's cause they have no clue of the reality and the CPI & Inflation numbers are useless when shrinkflation is used to secretly raise the price. Everyone always blaming another, if consumers don't realize the games being played on them, to bad for the idiots, and if they do realize and yet don't adjust their spending then you can't complain. Always funny when people complain but still buy, instead of sending a message and not buying a product.

Just noticed a new shrinkflation, wife bought the big box of the small pringle snack cups, had one, and there's like 3-4 less chips in that cup then there was a year ago.

Originally Posted by 2000cs

There really isn’t any such thing as greedflation unless you are a politician needing to blame others for your policies. All companies always want to raise prices but rarely can because of competitive pressures. Once one makes a move up, all can. Some industries (gasoline retail) this happens fast; others there are significant lags. Over the past 20 years there were many times companies bemoaned the inability to raise prices; once inflation started they all “caught up”.

Shrinkflation is just another implementation of inflation. Generally in consumer products. Consumers may have (or are believed to have) “price points” that cause them to consider substitutes, so rather than raising prices above that point, sellers reduce quantity. This avoids “sticker shock” that was a common issue in the inflation of the 1970s. And again, if no competitor will increase prices but costs are rising, the seller has to reduce size/quantity. Most consumer products have a “price leader” in their category - big enough market share that they can set the price and all others will follow or stay just below. In cars in the US it used to be GM/Chevy, for example. Until they move up, everyone else suffers reduced margins or lowers content.

Sorry to be pedantic, just wanted to clarify this a bit.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

Precisely this. "greedflation" is a political talking point - the reality is that companies will always seek to maximize profits. If consumers balk at paying, they're forced to lower prices.

The reality is that consumers have been demonstrating incredible resiliency and willingness to spend. As such, companies continue to charge.

Case in point: heavy goods like appliances. Prices spiked due to shortages during COVID, combined with the number of people updating their homes. Now, however, you can find some great deals on appliances beacuse inventory is back up and, consumer demand has dropped.

On the other hand: labor costs continue to escalate. Take home improvements - while the cost of inputs such as lumber, have dropped, the cost for labor is still elevated. The demand hasnt' slacked too much, but, there is still a shortage of skilled laborers and consumers are still willing to pay for home improvements.

In terms of inflation writ large, just wait until energy prices re-accelerate going into the spring. This also assumes there are no major shocks to the production system or transport of energy.

Housing is screwed because the entire real estate market has been artificially manipulated for the last 15 years. Unwinding this mess is going to take a lot of time - and, I suspect, voters won't allow politicians that much time. The inevitable result is that the government will put its hands into the real estate mix and skew the market even more than it already is.

Happy talk....

I would add and modify one point-

the average consumer is not particularly bright and their willingness to spend and buy typically won't run out until they run out of $... which is why any govt free dollars are usually a waste in terms of the goal intended for those dollars...

you would think folks would have saved the govt money during covid that was given to them and businesses to get by... nope everyone spent every dollar they had and now we r fukd... i feel bad for no one right now other than the folks who saved money and those just trying to get by on their last dollars

[bagekko]

Fixed for ya... the average consumer is not particularly bright and their willingness to spend and buy typically won't run out until they run out of CREDIT...

But the fools spending all their COVID $ was good and bad, it helped keep the economy from completely crashing but also it caused the inflation, so maybe they evened out... but yeah they should of prolly just let it implode instead of years of pain afterwards.... oh wait they should of never caused the mess in the first place..

Originally Posted by ASAP

I would add and modify one point-

the average consumer is not particularly bright and their willingness to spend and buy typically won't run out until they run out of $... which is why any govt free dollars are usually a waste in terms of the goal intended for those dollars...

you would think folks would have saved the govt money during covid that was given to them and businesses to get by... nope everyone spent every dollar they had and now we r fukd... i feel bad for no one right now other than the folks who saved money and those just trying to get by on their last dollars

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Housing is absolutely f-kd... i have no idea how this gets fixed... we are not building enough, people are stuck in low interest rates, more inventory isn't coming aboard and the high prices / rates are precluding folks from owning.

At least in these parts, the existing housing availability crisis is because of speculators buying properties to flip, as well as short-term rentals like AirBNB. With "free" money due to the low interest rates, these investment purchases seemed like a good idea...even if they took away available housing units from potential homeowners.

I suspect that raising the interest rate stuck the flippers with properties that they could not sell for a profit to qualified buyers, and slowed down the purchase of short-term rental properties. Maybe that's a good thing in the big picture?

I agree that high interest rates are not good for NEW home construction, hurting both the tradespeople plus the potential buyers.....

[chassis]

In other news, the PPI continues its months-long run in deflationary territory.

PPI is dropping.

Prices at the producer level are falling, and have done so for some time.

[bagekko]

The market has done better than expected in 2024, friend suggests it might continue doing well up to the election. I don't know, seems like everyday a major corp is laying off, Cisco just announced large layoff today. Local food bank is begging for donations saying demand is up 65% this year. Inflation is no where near under control, SB ad should of clued everyone the govt is desperate and unable to do anything.

So my question to the group, does the positive market continue at least for the next; 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or up to weeks before the election?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by chassis

In other news, the PPI continues its months-long run in deflationary territory.

PPI is dropping.

Prices at the producer level are falling, and have done so for some time.

Every single stance you've taken has been on the side of the corporations and corporate profits... not sure how dropping PPI means anything if it's not reducing CPI... also PPI has little input into services which area leading inflation now. Normal, everyday people are struggling and have been for 2 years now.

Originally Posted by bagekko

The market has done better than expected in 2024, friend suggests it might continue doing well up to the election. I don't know, seems like everyday a major corp is laying off, Cisco just announced large layoff today. Local food bank is begging for donations saying demand is up 65% this year. Inflation is no where near under control, SB ad should of clued everyone the govt is desperate and unable to do anything.

So my question to the group, does the positive market continue at least for the next; 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or up to weeks before the election?

The market will continue to do well for as long as the Gov't continues to paper over the problem... which could be forever. As far as corporations... not any upside in stock these days is led by some false AI claims or unemployment and divestitures that lead to more profitable companies... again, nothing that comes back in the hands of working people outside of shareholders. This is literally the economy we've setup.

[ASAP]

ah yes, the super healthy economy continues tracking on-

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/15/reta...ary-2024-.html

[chassis]

Originally Posted by ASAP

ah yes, the super healthy economy continues tracking on-

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/15/reta...ary-2024-.html

Is the data derived from unit volume or dollar denominated transactions?

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by chassis

Is the data derived from unit volume or dollar denominated transactions?

do you want to see a bad picture or real bad?

if volume, then this is bad

if dollars, then this is REALLY bad considering price increases