Stock market tips and experiences

[antzcrashing]

Q1 next year going to be bad. China easing Covid restrictions is going to cause infection and reduced output and consumption by them in Q1. The same thing that most of the rest of the world experienced a year ago. People are going to book loses early Q1 as well. Add to that the likely scenario that the consumer is weak in Q4 holiday season and it could be a trifecta of bad news.

Short term bearish, long term bullish

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Q1 next year going to be bad. China easing Covid restrictions is going to cause infection and reduced output and consumption by them in Q1. The same thing that most of the rest of the world experienced a year ago. People are going to book loses early Q1 as well. Add to that the likely scenario that the consumer is weak in Q4 holiday season and it could be a trifecta of bad news.

Short term bearish, long term bullish

How does easing restrictions reduce output compared to restrictions that basically treat everyone as infected? They will certainly have infections, like everyone, but easing restrictions should allow some level of higher output (and consumption) even if there are tens of millions of people who get COVID.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

How does easing restrictions reduce output compared to restrictions that basically treat everyone as infected? They will certainly have infections, like everyone, but easing restrictions should allow some level of higher output (and consumption) even if there are tens of millions of people who get COVID.

It reduces output compared to everyone factoring in a step function Covid reopening in China. People going to get sick and need to sleep/recover. American companies in large part need China running full steam for supplies. Onshorting is a long term play and may only be impactful to some industries or companies.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

It reduces output compared to everyone factoring in a step function Covid reopening in China. People going to get sick and need to sleep/recover. American companies in large part need China running full steam for supplies. Onshorting is a long term play and may only be impactful to some industries or companies.

OK but that would be a miss vs. projections, which is different than a YoY decline in output.

[Chi_weezy]

Saw this thread. I’m adding to my long term if/when the SPY gets to 340, 320 area. Been trading 3+ years. Not investment advice, just what I’m doing

[2008M36MT]

TSLA is a nightmare. I'm almost inclined to purchase it, but then I look at the PER. Still way too high, regardless of all the other stuff going on unrelated to it.
Hopefully my AAPL doesn't go in the same direction, lots to suggest it may, but will have to dollar cost average down.

[Chi_weezy]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

TSLA is a nightmare. I'm almost inclined to purchase it, but then I look at the PER. Still way too high, regardless of all the other stuff going on unrelated to it.
Hopefully my AAPL doesn't go in the same direction, lots to suggest it may, but will have to dollar cost average down.

TSLA actually at a pretty key level and psychological level ($150). I do question the company being that everyone else is offering arguably superior vehicles, musk is focused on Twitter, let’s see. I own it at $200 for long term fml will add more around $100-$120 if we get there. My mentor who has 17yrs trading experience see us getting down into the mid to low 300’s on the spy in the second quarter of 23’ so let’s see! Stoked to have finally started a long term portfolio tho

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

OK but that would be a miss vs. projections, which is different than a YoY decline in output.

I am not trying to be deceptive. Basically all I am saying is that the price of these stocks was/is set for a china reopening now, but the reopening is going to be slower due to infections rising (people cant work nor spend) and possibly china reverting on the reopening steps.

Look at macao stocks today, they are dipping lower, people are realizing it

[chassis]

What is the 5 year outlook for TSLA market share if F, STLA, Toyota and VAG invest and launch BEV product portfolios?

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by chassis

What is the 5 year outlook for TSLA market share if F, STLA, Toyota and VAG invest and launch BEV product portfolios?

Contrary to the self proclaimed "outside of the box" thinkers, I agree with the minority opinion that unless TSLA continues to innovate and materially improves its quality and offerings, the only direction the stock is headed is down. TSLA does have brand ID, but that will get eroded as other manufacturers continue to enter the TSLA dominated market. TSLA still only offers 4 cars with 5 colors. Once BMW, Mercedes, Porsche REALLY mature their offerings and create real choices, why would people continue to buy the most plain (inside out) car? Because it's a TSLA? Hopefully Musk continues to diversify the portfolio with solar panels, phones or whatever he cooks up next (assuming he stays CEO).

Then again, AAPL has somehow maintained its dominance without really evolving that much. Then again, cars are different from phones, the latter we are attached to 24/7 so its hard to change once it becomes an extension of you. A car is not quite the same.

[Tyga11]

I sold a bunch of my TSLA. Not interested in this company right now. Their brand is taking a huge hit. Elon really screwed the pooch.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

Contrary to the self proclaimed "outside of the box" thinkers, I agree with the minority opinion that unless TSLA continues to innovate and materially improves its quality and offerings, the only direction the stock is headed is down. TSLA does have brand ID, but that will get eroded as other manufacturers continue to enter the TSLA dominated market. TSLA still only offers 4 cars with 5 colors. Once BMW, Mercedes, Porsche REALLY mature their offerings and create real choices, why would people continue to buy the most plain (inside out) car? Because it's a TSLA? Hopefully Musk continues to diversify the portfolio with solar panels, phones or whatever he cooks up next (assuming he stays CEO).

Then again, AAPL has somehow maintained its dominance without really evolving that much. Then again, cars are different from phones, the latter we are attached to 24/7 so its hard to change once it becomes an extension of you. A car is not quite the same.

Unfortunately, I believe Elon has reached the point of no return. I have doubts he should be the CEO of TESLA going forward. His damage has been done already. You don't see Tim Cook going on rampages on Twitter and acting like a damn fool.

The people who don't think the brand has taken a huge hit...well they are wrong.

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Unfortunately, I believe Elon has reached the point of no return. I have doubts he should be the CEO of TESLA going forward. His damage has been done already. You don't see Tim Cook going on rampages on Twitter and acting like a damn fool.

The people who don't think the brand has taken a huge hit...well they are wrong.

Good point, Elon has been intrinsically tied to the TSLA brand ID, you have to believe he's done at least some damage to the brand, so unless he can turn it around quickly, and that seems unlikely to happen, long term that's not a good thing for TSLA. Though not supported by any empirical data, I would say TSLA is, or until Elon showed his conservative bias, was a token bleeding heart liberal's car. Now they want to cancel him. Don't know as many will want to buy TSLA moving forward.

[Chi_weezy]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

Contrary to the self proclaimed "outside of the box" thinkers, I agree with the minority opinion that unless TSLA continues to innovate and materially improves its quality and offerings, the only direction the stock is headed is down. TSLA does have brand ID, but that will get eroded as other manufacturers continue to enter the TSLA dominated market. TSLA still only offers 4 cars with 5 colors. Once BMW, Mercedes, Porsche REALLY mature their offerings and create real choices, why would people continue to buy the most plain (inside out) car? Because it's a TSLA? Hopefully Musk continues to diversify the portfolio with solar panels, phones or whatever he cooks up next (assuming he stays CEO).

Then again, AAPL has somehow maintained its dominance without really evolving that much. Then again, cars are different from phones, the latter we are attached to 24/7 so its hard to change once it becomes an extension of you. A car is not quite the same.

Good stuff. Agree

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

Good point, Elon has been intrinsically tied to the TSLA brand ID, you have to believe he's done at least some damage to the brand, so unless he can turn it around quickly, and that seems unlikely to happen, long term that's not a good thing for TSLA. Though not supported by any empirical data, I would say TSLA is, or until Elon showed his conservative bias, was a token bleeding heart liberal's car. Now they want to cancel him. Don't know as many will want to buy TSLA moving forward.

The brand is tarnished. They have alienated half of their consumers. Really an awful shame....considering the momentum TESLA had at the beginning of this year.

Now, there are rumors they will be shifting away from 50% YOY growth...it's a disaster

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

The brand is tarnished. They have alienated half of their consumers. Really an awful shame....considering the momentum TESLA had at the beginning of this year.

Now, there are rumors they will be shifting away from 50% YOY growth...it's a disaster

Tesla has no direct choice in the matter on growth rate. The real car companies are investing heavily and will leave TSLA in the dust by the law of large (financial) numbers.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by chassis

Tesla has no direct choice in the matter on growth rate. The real car companies are investing heavily and will leave TSLA in the dust by the law of large (financial) numbers.

Yeah...I mean, let's be honest, the Tesla design language is outdated and bland. The new EV's just look way better.

I'm still holding a position but no where what it was 2 months ago

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I sold a bunch of my TSLA. Not interested in this company right now. Their brand is taking a huge hit. Elon really screwed the pooch.

I think they are caught in 2 things, first Elon’s twitter escapades are a distraction, but honestly I think that will blow over. They are also stuck in the growth and tech category which is suffering due to market conditions. I think the latter will blow over in time too. Right now their PE is contracted to a point at which will provide downside support. I am holding for now

[Chi_weezy]

My gameplan for the long term portfolio. Adding at these levels. Let’s see how it plays out.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

I think they are caught in 2 things, first Elon’s twitter escapades are a distraction, but honestly I think that will blow over. They are also stuck in the growth and tech category which is suffering due to market conditions. I think the latter will blow over in time too. Right now their PE is contracted to a point at which will provide downside support. I am holding for now

To be clear, TSLA is still my largest holding. It was 28% of my portfolio and is now like 10%. I'm not giving up entirely but I can't risk it with this loose cannon of a stock when the market pops and this thing is down 7%...which has happened a handful of days the past 6 months. It's absolutely killed me.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

I am not trying to be deceptive. Basically all I am saying is that the price of these stocks was/is set for a china reopening now, but the reopening is going to be slower due to infections rising (people cant work nor spend) and possibly china reverting on the reopening steps.

Look at macao stocks today, they are dipping lower, people are realizing it

Clearly it's going to be a rough couple of months as they go through the inevitable waves of infections that re-opening will create. But it's going to happen and given slowing demand for China's products (particularly electronics) the disruptions in the West will likely be minimial. The government has pledged massive support to get the economy moving again, and we're likely to see something of a boom in activity as they climb out of their self-induced zero-COVID hole. It won't be the $1.5 Trillion-fueled one that we saw, but it will be significant.

KWEB, WYNN, others all bouncing around a bit, but they have run up about 30% in the last couple of months in anticipation of improving conditionis there. I expect that'll continue, especially after Lunar NY in mid-Jan.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

I think they are caught in 2 things, first Elon’s twitter escapades are a distraction, but honestly I think that will blow over. They are also stuck in the growth and tech category which is suffering due to market conditions. I think the latter will blow over in time too. Right now their PE is contracted to a point at which will provide downside support. I am holding for now

u forget the massive amount of competition that Tesla is now running into... Kia / Hyundai's / BMWs and FORDs EV have taken off massively... if tesla's build quality doesn't go up and they just continue to chase numbers, there will be hell to pay once real automotive manufacturers catch up their volumes...