Stock market tips and experiences

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Did you hear what QCOM said about handset demand? QRVO? Both are waving red flags. You may just want to wait until AAPL gets to $130.

Except there is word that China is going to wave the white flag on zero Covid and reopen their country. Which will be a tailwind for Apple and other China-exposed stocks

[MasterOfNone]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Except there is word that China is going to wave the white flag on zero Covid and reopen their country. Which will be a tailwind for Apple and other China-exposed stocks

I'm planning on snagging some calls on apple. See what happens tomorrow, maybe some 2023 jan's.

[Tyga11]

If the job report sucks tomorrow the market is going to go up like 4%.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Except there is word that China is going to wave the white flag on zero Covid and reopen their country. Which will be a tailwind for Apple and other China-exposed stocks

Yes that is true. It's not clear where the Chinese consumer is right now, though. Also, in China, there is a lot of pressure from the government to "buy local" (i.e., Oppo, Xioami, Huawei, etc.); toting an iPhone might keep you from getting that Party position, which can't be good for sales. And we know already that European/US consumers have been crushed and aren't going to get any relief. At some point even Apple fan-boyz run out of money.

If you want to trade the China opening, why not do so more directly with KWEB, et. al., or even WYNN?

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Yes that is true. It's not clear where the Chinese consumer is right now, though. Also, in China, there is a lot of pressure from the government to "buy local" (i.e., Oppo, Xioami, Huawei, etc.); toting an iPhone might keep you from getting that Party position, which can't be good for sales. And we know already that European/US consumers have been crushed and aren't going to get any relief. At some point even Apple fan-boyz run out of money.

If you want to trade the China opening, why not do so more directly with KWEB, et. al., or even WYNN?

The Chinese consumer wants to go to parties and festivals and cruises and vacations. They aren't different than other consumers after lockdown

[tom2021]

BMWYY is bouncing back.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

The Chinese consumer wants to go to parties and festivals and cruises and vacations. They aren't different than other consumers after lockdown

Yes, of course. Will they have the wherewithal? That remains to be seen; it's not like the Chinese gov't has been showering them with money while sitting out COVID, as ours did.

And, if they do have the funds, won't they (also) be spending primarily on services as opposed to goods? That would argue for investing in hotels, services, etc., that have exposure to China. That's why I suggested WYNN (which, full disclosure, I own); they will benefit greatly from Macau reopening. I'd also look at international hotels that have exposure to China. MAR, maybe? Dining, too. YUM?

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Yes, of course. Will they have the wherewithal? That remains to be seen; it's not like the Chinese gov't has been showering them with money while sitting out COVID, as ours did.

And, if they do have the funds, won't they (also) be spending primarily on services as opposed to goods? That would argue for investing in hotels, services, etc., that have exposure to China. That's why I suggested WYNN (which, full disclosure, I own); they will benefit greatly from Macau reopening. I'd also look at international hotels that have exposure to China. MAR, maybe? Dining, too. YUM?

I agree with you but I don't think that the tech and consumer industry will be lost on China just because they had less stimulus, as soon as they go out more, they are going to want the latest phone and fashion trends to go with it.

[Chick Webb]

Re:

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

they are going to want the latest phone and fashion trends to go with it.

Again, perhaps. What's been going on with Apple in China the last couple of months is very interesting:

1. End Sept/Early Oct - Initial reports indicate iPhone 14 sales in China are sluggish. Some think it may be "iPhone 14 may become the worst-selling model ever". There are reports that Apple is telling parts suppliers to back off their ramps.
   
   Sales of iPhone 14 in China down 11%: report
   
   
2. End Oct - Foxconn workers reported to be walking away (literally) from the main iPhone factory in Zhengzhou.
   
   Workers leave iPhone factory in Zhengzhou amid COVID curbs
   
   
3. Beginning Nov - Apple announces possible iPhone 14 shortages b/c of supply disruptions.
   
   Apple warns of looming iPhone 14 shortage and longer wait times

Now, I'm no conspiracy theorist, but this business at the Foxconn factory seems pretty fishy. They've had those "employees" locked in that factory off/on for two years, and up to now none of them have been allowed to leave. Why now? Did management suddenly lose control? Unlikely. Or, perhaps, did they get a big cut to their order book and decide that they didn't need all of those assembly folks - at least in the short term - after all?

It's certainly a convenient development for Apple. "Well, yeah, iPhone sales are down, but it's the supply...." I call BS. We all know that demand for ALL handsets is down massively, the 14 is hardly a must-have, and consumers generally are finally getting tapped out by inflation, burning off their stimulus money, and either losing or fearing losing their jobs. (Lots of iPhone buyers in the ranks of those tech employees that have been getting pink slips lately.) I'm not saying Tim orchestrated this, but these developments seem unusually coincidental.

I'm still a buyer at $135, for sure, but only b/c I'm betting on the car.

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Re:

Again, perhaps. What's been going on with Apple in China the last couple of months is very interesting:

1. End Sept/Early Oct - Initial reports indicate iPhone 14 sales in China are sluggish. Some think it may be "iPhone 14 may become the worst-selling model ever". There are reports that Apple is telling parts suppliers to back off their ramps.
   
   Sales of iPhone 14 in China down 11%: report
   
   
2. End Oct - Foxconn workers reported to be walking away (literally) from the main iPhone factory in Zhengzhou.
   
   Workers leave iPhone factory in Zhengzhou amid COVID curbs
   
   
3. Beginning Nov - Apple announces possible iPhone 14 shortages b/c of supply disruptions.
   
   Apple warns of looming iPhone 14 shortage and longer wait times

Now, I'm no conspiracy theorist, but this business at the Foxconn factory seems pretty fishy. They've had those "employees" locked in that factory off/on for two years, and up to now none of them have been allowed to leave. Why now? Did management suddenly lose control? Unlikely. Or, perhaps, did they get a big cut to their order book and decide that they didn't need all of those assembly folks - at least in the short term - after all?

It's certainly a convenient development for Apple. "Well, yeah, iPhone sales are down, but it's the supply...." I call BS. We all know that demand for ALL handsets is down massively, the 14 is hardly a must-have, and consumers generally are finally getting tapped out by inflation, burning off their stimulus money, and either losing or fearing losing their jobs. (Lots of iPhone buyers in the ranks of those tech employees that have been getting pink slips lately.) I'm not saying Tim orchestrated this, but these developments seem unusually coincidental.

I'm still a buyer at $135, for sure, but only b/c I'm betting on the car.

You're right there appear to to be a lot of "coincidences". Similar to your point though, I think that Apple is transitioning from a goods to a services company. While I hope there is a car, even if there isn't, their ecosystem will be pervasive in every car and that's what people really want, and more importantly have come to depend on. If there is a car though, it will be game changing like everything else Apple brings to market with and it will be reflected in the stock price. My cost basis is 140/share at 900 shares right now.
Along the same lines, that's where I see TSLA falling behind, not only are their designs uniform across the model range, almost Soviet/socialist style (you only get one), they're falling behind in terms of quality to other manufacturers and critically don't play in the sandbox with companies like AAPL, which are the future of the interior ecosystem. A few have said this on here, but if you think AAPL is overpriced, what is TSLA? Zero justification for what happened in the last 2 years. Yes right now when I think of electric, I think of TSLA, but I'm not buying an electric commuter car without CarPlay.

[XutvJet]

This week I exchanged a bunch of poor performing short term treasury and bond market index funds from my various retirement and brokerage accounts for more S&P 500 index funds which I'm already heavily invested. I'm sure the market will go down a bit more over the course of the next year, but there should be a nice payoff in the long run, especially once China starts to open back up after the first quarter of 2023 and COVID magically becomes less dangerous in that country. Plus, the quarterly dividends from the S&P 500 index funds have been so damn nice throughout the years and have provided us the money to buy my 2016 M235 with only a small loan, wife's 2020 4Runner for all cash, my 2011 Cayman fun car for all cash, and now are covering my daughter's club volleyball fees and travel costs all the while further cushioning our rainy day account.

I'm a super boring, simple, and somewhat conservative investor compared to most of you and I largely follow Warren Buffett's 15 Minute Retirement Plan and "The Little Book of Common Sense Investing".

[antzcrashing]

Hope you're not sitting in too much cash or short positions today. That would suck

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Hope you're not sitting in too much cash or short positions today. That would suck

I have <1% cash. Obviously been getting destroyed by TSLA past couple of weeks. Feels good to take a breather.

[2008M36MT]

Fk it sold my 900 shares for a $5k profit. As usual will probably miss upside but whatever all cash again. Made $9k on 2 sell trades in last 2 months.

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

Fk it sold my 900 shares for a $5k profit. As usual will probably miss upside but whatever all cash again. Made $9k on 2 sell trades in last 2 months.

900 shares of? Apple?

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

900 shares of? Apple?

Yep.

[Tyga11]

I bought $20k of QQQ today.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

Fk it sold my 900 shares for a $5k profit. As usual will probably miss upside but whatever all cash again. Made $9k on 2 sell trades in last 2 months.

Who knows. You made $5K. Anything can happen. Good trade

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Who knows. You made $5K. Anything can happen. Good trade

I've made $150k trading Apple in 2 years. Lost $130k on 1 GME short position. Try that.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by 2008M36MT

I've made $150k trading Apple in 2 years. Lost $130k on 1 GME short position. Try that.

What was the GME trade?

[2008M36MT]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What was the GME trade?

I had to cover a short, I shorted it at about $50 and it kept going up, I was panicking decided better have something than nothing at all. It was a pure gamble and a good learning lesson.

[XKxRome0ox]

Spy is at 397??!!
Feels like the slow climb up on a rollercoaster before the big drop