Stock market tips and experiences

[antzcrashing]

I keep trying to get to 10 percent cash by adding to my account monthly and letting it sit. But then I see "bargains" and I buy them. And the bargains drop 30 percent the next day

[chassis]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

I keep trying to get to 10 percent cash by adding to my account monthly and letting it sit. But then I see "bargains" and I buy them. And the bargains drop 30 percent the next day

You are trying to catch a falling knife, and you are getting cut in the process.

[Humdizzle]

i mean if he's averaging in and doesn't need the money its fine. market will eventually recover. dumping a hoard of money in at once trying to predict the bottom is a more risky strategy.

i'm waiting for the fed to give some good news before i start adding back in.

although... tesla looks very enticing at 750 today lol

[dreamingat30fps]

Meh I don't have the time, patience or knowledge to fuck around with this shit. I mainly use robo investors like wealthfront and buy some index funds on my own. I have the robo stuff to invest automatically every week, when I hear shit is bad I tell it to invest more $$ each week. When shit seems to get real bad, and I remember, I buy more shares of my index funds.

I keep a few extra bucks on the side to gamble, but been too busy to mess with that lately.

[chassis]

Inflation decreased in the most recent data release from today. Only the WSJ is reporting it that way, as far as I have seen.

New money for me is going into cash or ibonds. Then redeployment back into the market when the time is right.

[Tyga11]

Nasdaq opened 1.50% in the red today and now it's up 1.00%

Maybe this morning was the bottom?????

[DocL]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Nasdaq opened 1.50% in the red today and now it's up 1.00%

Maybe this morning was the bottom?????

Not yet.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by DocL

Not yet.

What are you thinking? Another 20% down? That's what I've been reading

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by chassis

Inflation decreased in the most recent data release from today.

Not really. Headline number was 8.3% vs 8.5% last month. So, yes, on the surface, down. If you actually dig a little, though, it's not such a positive story (surprise!).

The m-o-m number that the administration was crowing about was the "all items" increase of 0.3%, vs 1.2% in March. But that was driven by a 6.1% decrease in the gasoline index, which has since reversed, thus illustrating why most people focus on the "x-food and energy" (aka "core inflation") number. Unfortunately, the core numbers actually got way worse. In March the core figure was +0.3%, BUT in April it was +0.6%.

So, core inflation went up quite a bit. Note that last month, the administration was emphasizing the core number, but this month they're conveniently emphasizing the the "all items" figure, since it better supports their narrative that they're "doing something" about inflation. Agenda much? I get it, it's politics, but really, they do think we're that stupid.

No matter. Why was the core number up so much? Because higher housing costs are just starting to be incorporated in that index, since there's a lag between housing costs going up and them showing up there. In April, shelter+electricity+utilities (gas, mostly) were up 4.3% over March. Given that none of those three are going down any time soon, no matter what happens to food+energy we are looking at 7-8% inflation through the end of the year, at least.

Details of the figures I quote above here - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What are you thinking? Another 20% down? That's what I've been reading

Likely a lot of bouncing around near where we are until the big earnings revisions start coming in next month ahead of Q2 earnings in July. Companies that begin seeing significant softening in their businesses in Q2, but did not guide down at the end of Q1, will be forced to issue revisions ahead of their Q2 earnings in order to try to mitigate the damage to their stock price when they announce. When that happens, P/E ratios will jump back up (when "E" goes down, P/E goes up), and the market will respond by taking "P" down to get prices back in the 15-20 P/E range.

We've got to see the VIX hit ~40, even if it's an intraday number, before a bottom can be called. When that happens we could easily be another 20% down, though likely more like 5-10% in the broader indexes. As I said in a previous post, AAPL needs to break below $150 (it has), the S&P needs to hit $380 (has not), and the VIX 40 (has not). When those three things happen at the same time, I'm gonna start nibbling. Until then, patience.

IMHO, of course.

[BMW F22]

The only stock that is up today is Roku. Was a good buy at $75. Everything else is down. Very tempted to buy them: Apple, MSFT, AMD, etc.

[DocL]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

What are you thinking? Another 20% down? That's what I've been reading

I wish I had the crystal ball like everyone else. All I know is if you look at the entire history of the market it has had an upward trend. I buy when it's high and low. I used to do some day trading, but now my strategy is long term hold in good dividend blue chip stocks.

I'll be buying more Appl this week as I always do each month. And I'll also be buying more Appl in my kids portfolio too. They already have about $50k each in there and they are only 9 because I started buying when they were born. They'll either buy me a car when they take over the account, or tell me to fuck off. .

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

The only stock that is up today is Roku. Was a good buy at $75. Everything else is down. Very tempted to buy them: Apple, MSFT, AMD, etc.

The meme stocks are up.

[XutvJet]

We haven't reached the bottom and the market will be wave after wave of chaos until the following happens:

1) China dumps it's "dynamic" COVID approach. This won't happen until Xi is reelected.

2) Peace in the Ukraine. This could be years unless there is a Russian regime change.

3) The chip shortage ends. We're looking at another 1+ year and is somewhat related to how China will continue to deal with COVID.


IMO, we're probably in a pretty terrible market situation for a few years. Too much world-wide chaos and way too much market growth over the past 8+ years is the cause.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

We haven't reached the bottom and the market will be wave after wave of chaos until the following happens:

1) China dumps it's "dynamic" COVID approach. This won't happen until Xi is reelected.

2) Peace in the Ukraine. This could be years unless there is a Russian regime change.

3) The chip shortage ends. We're looking at another 1+ year and is somewhat related to how China will continue to deal with COVID.


IMO, we're probably in a pretty terrible market situation for a few years. Too much world-wide chaos and way too much market growth over the past 8+ years is the cause.

Why is China actively destroying their economy? That part doesn't make sense to me

[BMW F22]

https://stocks.apple.com/AF_2FBtd_QmWlo-VfPgbTVQ

That caused Nasdaq to drop quite a bit.

[antzcrashing]

The beatings will continue until moral improves"


Ie inflation drops significantly


That isn't going to be soon


Overall I am bullish

[Humdizzle]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Nasdaq opened 1.50% in the red today and now it's up 1.00%

Maybe this morning was the bottom?????

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

Market manipulation. The hedge funds are cashing out once the market pops. They're prob making a killing. The everyday joe's like us get screwed

[Humdizzle]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Market manipulation. The hedge funds are cashing out once the market pops. They're prob making a killing. The everyday joe's like us get screwed

most definitely. alot of the time the market makes zero sense in what it does. sp500 rose up after putin decided to invade. stocks soared post covid even when unemployment was high.

all i know for sure is that if i cash out now at a loss, the market will go green and recover 20% next week. And if i buy more today we'll see a hard drop tomorrow.

[dtox9]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

most definitely. alot of the time the market makes zero sense in what it does. sp500 rose up after putin decided to invade. stocks soared post covid even when unemployment was high.

all i know for sure is that if i cash out now at a loss, the market will go green and recover 20% next week. And if i buy more today we'll see a hard drop tomorrow.

^^^ THIS ^^^

[e90335e36m3]

Originally Posted by dtox9

^^^ THIS ^^^

I pulled out of BBY at a loss in my current position, though was green overall for the year. It has dropped by 25 points since where I sold it. I've accepted that right now, it's just not worth the risk to invest. I'm willing to miss the upside, but be stress free in all this volatility. There are no positives economically or geopolitically that say equities are a good place to be right now. Moreover, the run up from the time Covid started is not warranted, IMO.

It's like entering the housing market right now. Just can't justify the absurdity.

The downside of sitting on cash, with inflation the way that it is, the time value of money. Getting poorer every day relative to where I was yesterday.