Stock market tips and experiences

[chassis]

QQQ is good. So are many of its components.

[barcelona]

MS updated research MSFT

Is it ok to post research?

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

I don’t understand the market…

Be specific, but I am going to guess you mean how can nasdaq rise while inflation is at 40-year high and fed should be forced to hawkish

[BMW F22]

Originally Posted by antzcrashing

Be specific, but I am going to guess you mean how can nasdaq rise while inflation is at 40-year high and fed should be forced to hawkish

Pretty much. Dips few days in a row and recovers a few days in a row. Hard to understand the reasonings.

[barcelona]

My concern is if the Fed has made a policy error. I expect 2022 to be volatile, hence I have more cash.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by BMW F22

Pretty much. Dips few days in a row and recovers a few days in a row. Hard to understand the reasonings.

I hear ya, I think the market is in between 2 opinions: the obvious one, which may be too obvious: the fed raises rates and growth stocks like Nasdaq index go down, and another opinion: the fed is full of shit and biding time for the covid economy to fix itself, and less rate hikes needed. Yesterday it was the latter, today it was the former. This ping pong is likely to continue until he market makes a choice

[chassis]

The economy is strong. The market volatility is taper and rate tantrum. It must be that way because interest rates and liquidity are used to price assets and value cash flows. It doesn’t structurally change the prospects for most businesses. I expect good Q4 and Q1 earnings. Q2 also for that matter.

One Fed governor today said inflation at 2.5% by year end. I believe it, on a monthly basis. Full year 2022 inflation will be higher but we should enter 2023 much closer to long range average.

[barcelona]

Fwiw, 1st time Iv'e seen Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Trust own MSFT. It's a small portfolio with a large purchase in Q3.

[barcelona]

I do a weekly check on Puru's twitter ...he loves high CAGR tech.
Anyone have some source of info ( blog, twitter, podcast... ) that they follow and seems to work with for them ?




Puru Saxena
@saxena_puru
·
Jan 13
Very difficult to forecast when the final selling climax might come but my best guess is during Q1...

When indices crack, economy wobbles and inflation rolls over, Fed will probably fold like a lawn chair - that'll trigger a massive rally and growth stocks will do a moonshot.

[XutvJet]

I might end up making out like a bandit. I bought 500 share of Activision Blizzard for $35/share a few years back. Today Microsoft announced a cash buy out of AB today. Share prices took off and now in the $80s, though still not near their top price of $103 a few months back.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by XutvJet

I might end up making out like a bandit. I bought 500 share of Activision Blizzard for $35/share a few years back. Today Microsoft announced a cash buy out of AB today. Share prices took off and now in the $80s, though still not near their top price of $103 a few months back.

I own it too. Should go up a bit more if the deal goes through. Hold and they turn into Microsoft shares at that value

[XKxRome0ox]

has the bleeding finally stopped?

[Humdizzle]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

has the bleeding finally stopped?

i hope so. microsoft earnings report didn't help.
its gonna come down to what the Fed decides on wednesday

[chassis]

The Fed is driving the bus. Corporate earnings are secondary for the moment. Interest rates need more clarity

[barcelona]

What Powell actually does maybe different than what he says. Need say 6 months to determine.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by barcelona

What Powell actually does maybe different than what he says. Need say 6 months to determine.

Based on today... definitely true...

The fed is a figment at this point.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

has the bleeding finally stopped?

Real bleeding started?

[mdf]

Good article on CNBC today about how AMC played its meme rally.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/how-...-business.html

$1.91 to $70 to $16 is quite a ride.

[antzcrashing]

I'm not sure we have seen the worse of the declines. Its not a sell all stocks moment, but reduce exposure to high risk stocks, increase exposure to better alternatives moment.

[barcelona]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Based on today... definitely true...

The fed is a figment at this point.

My unrealized gains have become a figment. It's gonna be a long year.

[barcelona]

Originally Posted by mdf

Good article on CNBC today about how AMC played its meme rally.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/26/how-...-business.html

$1.91 to $70 to $16 is quite a ride.

Good stuff. I stayed away from AMC. I did buy Viac after Bill Huang aka the tiger cub from Julian Robertson pulled a fast one. It was suppose to be value after the big fall. I took my stop loss. It was worse than a value stock, depreciating value like my car. haha

Speaking of streaming and value, Bill "hell is coming" Ackman bought 3.1m shares NFLX.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Real bleeding started?

China's zero COVID approach will likely create a significant market tumble in the next year or so. Hundreds of thousands will die in China once COVID takes a firm grasp of that country and it's going to bring that country to a standstill until it can come to terms with accepting COVID as a part of life and that they can't lock themselves down forever. Once you start seeing multi-thousand COVID outbreaks in a number of Chinese cities and numerous factories start shutting down is when the world wide economy will really start to feel the effects. That will include a loss of control on their end to contain the virus.

If Russia invades the Ukraine, that too will negatively impact the market for a short while and quite possibly very soon. If other countries lose their cool and side with Russia, it could be a very dangerous and more grave situation for the world. It's hard to tell exactly what Putin will do. Russians love to F with others and take things right up to the edge and then back off.

Overall, it's going to be a bumpy 2022. I still think a bunch of you are bonkers with your puts, hopes and dreams stocks, crypto, etc. For the vast majority of normal people, there is no safe or effective get rich quick scheme. The most effective and financially advantageous investment strategy remains to be low fee S&P 500 funds as the primary investment vehicle. Yes, it's quite boring and hands off, but over the long term, it's the most successful approach for the majority.