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10-18-2024, 07:06 AM | #45 | |
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The problem is thinking like a Politician and not like an engineer, physicist, chemist, and businessman. Writing words on a piece of paper just doesn't make it so. A global shift to EV is just not realistic. The vision is flawed because no human activity is done for the benefit of the planet's climate; it's a flawed concept. Industrialists who actually create products rather than legislation have a realistic view of the world. When Government drives the development of the automobile the result is the Yogo and Trabant, not BMWs. Politicians don't understand the concept of "profit motive". The i3 was not a sales success and did not generate profit, which is why it was dropped. Last edited by Efthreeoh; 10-18-2024 at 09:09 AM.. |
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10-18-2024, 09:14 AM | #46 |
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It's best for BMW to say what he's saying so anything he says I consider where and why he is saying it. If I tell my boss some giant project I am given isn't doable, he would also consider the possibility I am saying what is best for me.
On the other hand, I agree 2035 isn't realistic, also understand any major market change will come with a lot of negatives for some. Just resisting it won't change the final outcome. China seeming to be far ahead of the rest in this market I'm sure scares the established ICE manufacturers. From a selfish, doing what is best for the manufacturers in our country it's a mistake to decide now that EV's won't work long term, go all in on what we are doing now. If we are wrong we will be out of the market. In the 70's U.S. manufacturers were slow to adapt to small, fuel effiicient cars, Japanese were far ahead, we let the Japanese take a huge part of the market.
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10-18-2024, 12:43 PM | #47 | |
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China (correctly) assumes that if they sell EVs significantly cheaper than everyone else, it won't matter that they're crappy and poor quality, nobody will look into the dirty secrets of their supply chain and western consumers will buy them and treat them as disposable. |
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10-18-2024, 03:38 PM | #48 |
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Totally agree about Chinese carmakers' unfair systemic advantages from their government... but disagree about quality. Have you actually seen one of BYD's recent EVs? I have, and I was frankly shocked at how good their fit and finish & material quality was. They're far from perfect, but they're also far from crappy.
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10-18-2024, 03:55 PM | #49 | ||
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10-18-2024, 06:14 PM | #50 | |
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10-18-2024, 06:20 PM | #51 | |
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Thats not even talking about your Foxconns of the world. I worked with a plant in Chengdu, we had some former foxconn employees there. They told me stories of some.lf.their friends who were laborers were forced to pay more for boarding and food than they would make for the first 2 years..they were literally losing money the first year or two, paying their debt to the company off, and only after a few years swere they actually earning any money. This was somehow better than their economic prospects in small rural villages. Most of them would work there for a few years while sending money back to their homes, then eventually just not show back up after new year. Also, you can't take anything Farley says seriously. He's both running Ford into the ground, and a total talking head, who will tell you they're all in on gas V8s one day, then turn around and tell another group of people about how great EVs are the next, then tell a 3rd group that's EVs and V8s are dumb and turbo hybrids are the future. He says whatever the group he's speaking to wants to hear. |
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10-18-2024, 06:47 PM | #52 | |
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10-18-2024, 09:38 PM | #53 | |
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At this point, lifting the ban wouldn't really help them much, if any, in the long term... Chinese EV makers won't slow down or stop... China was smart about it. They forced automakers to form joint ventures with Chinese manufacturers to build cars in China and they all rushed over there letting greed drive them. China has now taken that expertise and starting building the future of the automotive market... Lifting the bans and slowing down will turn over their automotive industry to China... EVs are the future no matter how you slice it. It is suicide to fall behind. |
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10-19-2024, 08:53 AM | #54 | |
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
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10-19-2024, 08:58 AM | #55 | |
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An outright ban of all Chinese imports phased in over a few years is the correct course of action. |
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10-19-2024, 08:59 AM | #56 | |
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A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
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10-19-2024, 09:44 AM | #57 | |
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10-20-2024, 03:59 AM | #58 | |
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Last edited by Efthreeoh; 10-20-2024 at 08:25 AM.. |
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10-20-2024, 09:22 PM | #59 | |
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China never made inroads with ICEVs because they're a lot harder to engineer quality into. An EV is basically a.aet.of commoditized products, electric motors, batteries, etc are all just stuff you buy from whoever. The only way that China would have really broke into the ICE market would have been via buying stuff from other companies, they likely could have sourced transmissions from ZF or Aisin, engines, well what automaker would have been dumb enough to do that? They could have maybeb contracted Yamaha or someone to develop and build one for them, but that'd be expensive. |
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10-20-2024, 09:43 PM | #60 | |
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Last edited by Efthreeoh; 10-21-2024 at 05:27 AM.. |
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10-22-2024, 09:03 AM | #61 |
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They are all starting to flap inc VW but it seems strange that they have publicly embraced the move right up until the point they realised that they won't win, but that must have been clear right from the start China hasn't just blown in, they knew before there was this risk.
They got greedy as hell during and after the late unpleasantness and have pushed pricing to the moon and lowered quality, their EV sales are taxpayer subsidised so they just pushed the margins up which has led to the residuals falling off a cliff after the first lease which their finance arms now have to swallow. Although the EU and other governments in the West are also to blame, with their unachievable targets and fine programs it was all bound to end in tears. Someone should buy the CEO a book on the demise of Kodak.
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10-22-2024, 12:49 PM | #62 |
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10-26-2024, 03:13 PM | #63 |
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The big European manufactures of today sound exactly like the big Detroit manufacturers back in the 1980s. I remember when the latter laughed at the small, 4-cyl German and Japanese cars a decade earlier, saying they just weren’t what US buyers wanted. They just sat back and did nothing while their markets were eaten by foreign imports. Then too late, they argued for tariffs. Then GM went bust and had to be rescued with taxpayer dollars.
Now the parallel is here with the European electric car market: Chinese and Far East EVs are starting to dominate. Next step was for BMW and VAG to push the EU to apply tariffs on Chinese imports. This will, eventually, fail to save them unless they stop whingeing, get their fingers out and start building what people want. Alongside my M235i convertible, I’ve got a Stellantis EV hatchback. But it was only competitive with the equivalent Chinese model because I got a 20% discount on the price, which gave it parity. And even then, the Stellantis remote services are a decade or more behind what a Chinese manufacturer offers. The Stellantis CEO is making the same noises about the ICEV ban and shouts for more time and import tariffs, instead of getting on with the job of catching up. I’d be more sympathetic if he was asking for R&D, supply chain and new factory incentives for local EV manufacturers, but he isn’t. Europe isn’t the US - we don’t have big oil reserves and most of our petrol/diesel has to be imported, often from politically dodgy, unstable and culturally alien regimes. So it makes sense economically and politically to wean ourselves off petroleum imports and try and transition as much as possible to electric transportation. And if European car manufacturers ‘Do a Detroit’ and won’t build what we need, then it’s the Chinese who are going to fill the gap. It’s this scenario that is pushing European politicians to drag their car manufacturers kicking and screaming into the next decade.
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10-26-2024, 07:06 PM | #64 | |
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10-26-2024, 08:02 PM | #65 |
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AFAIK the real problem has multiple sides:
China is selling EV's way too cheap - they're running it a loss in order to gain market share destroying competition and later on use that as leverage (either during a war about Taiwan - or just to charge more). Having had IT based suppliers from China at work: DO NOT TRUST THEM. They don't even try to hide that they're lying to your face. EU public doesn't like EVs well enough. Hence the EU car markers can't sell them in volume to their home crowd. This will change once the public will have to pay for CO2 emissions (from 2027 onward people in the EU will have to pay a "tax" on anything that emits CO2 for warming their home or driving a vehicle). As things stand now the "tax" will be highly significant. This "tax" is setup to be a bit unpredictable, but right now it would be a LOT. It would force people using ICE cars to abandon them and suddenly switch to EVs, same for heating a home: natural gas, etc would be out and heat pumps would be mandatory almost. BUT ... our electric grid is in no way up to that challenge. Simple reason: No project to improve the grid succeeds as nobody wants it in "their backyard". But next to no communication to the public at large of this happens. Why: it's the job of the country-level politicians to sell this to their voters, but they don't want to do that as they know it's going to be unpopular. So they go "mañana" and as always only run with the good news themselves ignoring to say the EU is causing it, while once they're finally pushed hard enough will bring bad news as "they EU made us" - ignoring the same political parties pushed it at the EU level. The politicians are going to have a nightmare on their hands if their current rules for 2027 kick in without a huge shift in the public's use of fuel for driving cars and heating homes. There's going to be revolts (at least in France) if they let those things kick in as-is. It'll disrupt markets and electric grids alike and will hit those weakest in society the worst. The car makers expect the rules to get looser for them by 2035, but the R&D cycle and need to sell engines for long enough to recuperate it all is long, and waiting for the politicians to realize in 2027 or 2028 they can't do it, pushes them into impossible timelines. So they try to shake up things a bit ... Last edited by bmw 66; 10-27-2024 at 05:10 AM.. |
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10-28-2024, 04:04 AM | #66 |
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As I said, unlike the US, most European petroleum has to be imported, at significant cost to us. So as well as the existential threat of global heating from car emissions, thre’s a purely economic argument for moving to EVs where possible. And that imperative is already working hard and seeing significant year-on-year increase in EV ownership. And in the UK, that’s without any taxpayer incentives and in a completely free-market energy landscape.
If it wasn’t for the Chinese, we could probably leave this to the market. But what’s happening here is that the Chinese are undercutting domestic car manufacturers and winning more and more market share. So that’s a double-whammy economically. Tariffs are a short-term stop-gap but not a long-term solution to being uncompetitive. If European governments do nothing then their domestic car industry will wither. So yes, they’ve imposed tariffs but along with that, are pushing their own industrials to compete. In that context, I think it’s a balanced approach. And let me put this ‘we don’t have the capacity to go for EVs in a big way’ argument to bed - we do. At least in the UK. There’s no problem with generating the power we need. Blackouts and brownouts are an unknown here. If anything, we have a surplus. And this is with an entirely free-market power landscape. Not only that, we’ve got very high levels of renewables (and while that’s a lot down to our geography, it’s still a big plus, nevertheless). But yes, if you’re not one of the 60% of UK households with domestic off-street charging capability then charging overnight is a challenge. And you need this to be convenient and cheap for the EV vs ICEV equation to work.
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