Will the pandemic economy cause a drop in new car prices?

[Mr Pete]

Originally Posted by GenXer

I'm also putting my elderly parents at risk because they live with me but I still have to go work as usual. My dad has a heart disease and diabetes and had a triple bypass a little while ago. Despite all the necessary precautions I still have to interact with a myriad of people throughout the day.

Oh wow. Yea that's tough. Hope you and your folks stay safe and healthy.

[PoorLurker]

New car prices? What about used car pricing! Can't wait to see those prices plummet when people who've leverage themselves tremendously have to get rid of their toys.

Speaking of the market- I wonder how this forum's wisest stock investor is doing: the guy who claims he kills the market like no other.

[freakystyly]

The government will just print more money and bailout everyone. Looks like it's already happening in Canada.

[Mr Pete]

Originally Posted by PoorLurker

New car prices? What about used car pricing! Can't wait to see those prices plummet when people who've leverage themselves tremendously have to get rid of their toys.

Speaking of the market- I wonder how this forum's wisest stock investor is doing: the guy who claims he kills the market like no other.

I thought about getting rid of my M2. Cut some costs, etc. But then I drove it today since I'm on a mandatory, local government imposed vacay. Yea, I don't think I can get rid of it. Living the simple, frugal life be damned!

Who's the Bimmerpost stock guru?

[PoorLurker]

Originally Posted by Mr Pete

I thought about getting rid of my M2. Cut some costs, etc. But then I drove it today since I'm on a mandatory, local government imposed vacay. Yea, I don't think I can get rid of it. Living the simple, frugal life be damned!

Who's the Bimmerpost stock guru?

is his name bimmerfrk or something? I can't remember but he was always gloating about how much money he's making and how his portfolio for the last X years have been so strong.

M2 sounds like a fabulous car. I'd probably not sell it in your case either. Nice way to have fun while on this lock down.

[ThatKrazyPolak]

Obviously with everything going on it's kind of off putting to discuss new purchase offers, but I'm curious. I know corporate announced incentives for dealerships and lease/ finance delays, but what can the new car buyer expect?

This isn't necessarily pertaining to the 3 series, but does anyone think it's possible to get more than 10 -11% off on new vehicles? Dealerships are going to be scrambling but how does all this trickle down to the buyer?

[Alfisti]

Numbers out of Australia show unemployment at 5.1% in Feb, march numbers pointing towards and estimate of 13% according to the egg heads. That is absolutely dire.

[TorontoGambler]

Originally Posted by chassis

I see upward pressure in new car prices, because the supply is restricted due to factory closures. New car purchases are often driven by necessity. Purchases can be postponed, but if someone has a car they are not willing to invest repair dollars into, they will buy a new vehicle.

As dealer inventory shrinks because of production stoppages, I see prices going up. Transaction volume may shrink, but dealers know how to do one thing very well. Make money.

Prior to the virus, the consumer was very healthy - employed, high savings, low debt. Once the virus haze clears I see a strong economic rebound.

Let’s see what happens but I’m in the camp of 100% opposite. A global recession is brewing, prices won’t go up, especially on luxury items. None of us need these cars, we like them, they’re fun... as we reprioritize and some people lose handsomely there is zero chance demand increases and it will be well below supply, regardless of how hindered supply is. My 2 cents.

[Flacht3]

How about we look at some data and history?

In the 2008 recession, luxury automotive sales took roughly a 25% hit. Yes, that's a BIG hit.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/32860931/n.../#.XoUGWNNKiL8

However, who here was a car buyer during that time? Do you remember the market? You didn't see a fire-sale at Ferrari or a buy-one-get-one on BMWs, because most recessions (however painful) come to an end in 1-2 years, and brands/dealers/etc. are suited to weather the pain (sure, dealers are making less money, brands are pulling in less revenue, but so is everyone) in the short term vs. diminish their product for the long term.

Typically, luxury items are one of the first things to bounce back, once the wealthy feel comfortable splurging (many times it's not even the ability to splurge...but the perception and "guilt" of buying luxury items in a downturn, which is very very real).

https://archive.fortune.com/2010/07/...tune/index.htm

I DO think we're in this for the next 1-2 years and it will be painful, but we'll gradually start recovering in 6 months.

I DO think we'll see "deals" on cars, but I'm still talking 5-10% increase on discounts, incentives on financing, etc.

I DON'T think we'll see prices slashed 20-30% etc. not even in the used market. People know they're better off just holding on for a few years.

I DO hope everyone here goes through the least pain possible, and DON'T think it really matters what types of discounts we'll see and would rather worry about if we'll all be employed.

[DBV1]

Good post. In the 2008 collapse, we purchased my wife’s Mercedes GL350 then at an amazing discount. Paid cash and that was the least depreciation hit I have ever taken with a car.

Will watch for similar deals in the market if it gets to that point. Still too early to really know. Although, my lease is up in June and I am seeing some aggressive lease deals on cars with MSRP’s $10k more than the 5 Series I drive now.

Originally Posted by Flacht3

How about we look at some data and history?

In the 2008 recession, luxury automotive sales took roughly a 25% hit. Yes, that's a BIG hit.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/32860931/n.../#.XoUGWNNKiL8

However, who here was a car buyer during that time? Do you remember the market? You didn't see a fire-sale at Ferrari or a buy-one-get-one on BMWs, because most recessions (however painful) come to an end in 1-2 years, and brands/dealers/etc. are suited to weather the pain (sure, dealers are making less money, brands are pulling in less revenue, but so is everyone) in the short term vs. diminish their product for the long term.

Typically, luxury items are one of the first things to bounce back, once the wealthy feel comfortable splurging (many times it's not even the ability to splurge...but the perception and "guilt" of buying luxury items in a downturn, which is very very real).

https://archive.fortune.com/2010/07/...tune/index.htm

I DO think we're in this for the next 1-2 years and it will be painful, but we'll gradually start recovering in 6 months.

I DO think we'll see "deals" on cars, but I'm still talking 5-10% increase on discounts, incentives on financing, etc.

I DON'T think we'll see prices slashed 20-30% etc. not even in the used market. People know they're better off just holding on for a few years.

I DO hope everyone here goes through the least pain possible, and DON'T think it really matters what types of discounts we'll see and would rather worry about if we'll all be employed.

[exE36M3]

Interesting thread. I was 38 in 2008. I just got a job in San Francisco with a well funded start-up and had zero worries about job loss in fall of 2007. I watched my friends lose their houses and their jobs. It seemed to effect everyone but squarely the middle-class.

But by spring of 2009, we got another round of funding, threw a stupidly big party and our company was doing shows and everything by summer. So by my observation, 6 months was really the brunt of 2008 up here in NorCal.

It's 2020 now and I am 50 working for a mid-size, technology company. We provide the software for service companies that work on oil rigs, medical machines, HVAC, etc. All those things are still running and can't be compromised on - especially the med ones. So based on our client base that pays monthly, we should be OK for a while.

However, this time around, it's interesting... small businesses, hospitality, travel, and restaurants (and manufacturing) that are the ones getting killed. This is a different hit because it's blue-collar service people and blue collar manufacturing. It's a different part of the middle-class.

Personally, since I've been through 2008 (and 1987 as a teen)... I'm not as stressed. My wife's job is on the line but we have money saved to cover her earnings. I'm *hoping* for a 6 month recovery. But THE X-factor is when that clock starts. Unlike Obama saying Jan 1, 2008 "We are in a recession"... We are waiting for President Trump to say, "OK, the pandemic is over." THAT to me is when the recovery clock starts to tick.

But back to the original question... If you NEED a car, it's a great time to buy.
But if you have that cash, *personally* I'd watch the stock market and start picking up some stocks. Upsides can be as much as 10% in a day (if you want to day trade it), or buy to hold on and make 25%-50% a year after this all blows over.

[chassis]

Agree on a lot of what has been posted. I haven't seen a steep price drop for my target car models on the used market. If I do see a big drop, I am willing and able to make a transaction.

Regarding the official declaration of the end of the COVID era, is there a standard set by the medical community, whereby the pandemic will be declared "over"?

Or will we always be halfway there?

[FuriouslyFast]

Originally Posted by PoorLurker

New car prices? What about used car pricing! Can't wait to see those prices plummet when people who've leverage themselves tremendously have to get rid of their toys.

Speaking of the market- I wonder how this forum's wisest stock investor is doing: the guy who claims he kills the market like no other.

Dodge was giving away new Hellcats before this & it screwed me in the process with trying to sell my Hellcat so I am forced to keep it lol. Curious to see if the used HC market plummets soon with CV...

[FuriouslyFast]

Originally Posted by chassis

Agree on a lot of what has been posted. I haven't seen a steep price drop for my target car models on the used market. If I do see a big drop, I am willing and able to make a transaction.

Regarding the official declaration of the end of the COVID era, is there a standard set by the medical community, whereby the pandemic will be declared "over"?

Or will we always be halfway there?

What are you targeting?

I'm specifically looking for a clean NA Miata, a classic muscle car (Hopefully, already LS swapped) a big turbo built Mazdaspeed6 or maybe something else that I haven't even considered yet lol

[chassis]

A high hp German 4 door. Several brands and models are in the mix. No prices are tanking yet, just some slippage.

[flybigjet]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/busin...rus/index.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/wors...uto-sales.html

[secretsquirrel]

Something that cannot be discounted is the loss of appeal of luxury items the longer we stay in social distancing mode. The longer we stay like this, the more likely people are to reset their priorities. High priced luxury items are going to see a big hit even after we return to normal from social distancing. Some people will always want them, but I think you'll see less people stretching and making as many financial sacrifices for them.

[Alfisti]

Still stunned by the positivity here. Despite the "church and guns" feel of this place most are well educated and bright but i see a ... i dunno ... a failure to realise the monumental shit we are in economically.

This will be bad.

[chassis]

Thanks Alfisti. What do you recommend that you, anyone reading this thread, or your/our governments do? What action needs taken?

Please try to frame the reply in the context of the original post on this thread.

[RM7]

Things cost money to make. They won't be selling them at a loss, unless we are talking a few that are on-hand at a dealer, but they, just like everyone else, are going to do everything they possibly can to not do this, most likely it'll be the models that no one wants, like some ugly BMW GTs and 4cyl cayman. The manufacturer will right-size with demand, so instead of producing current-demand amount, it'll be right-sized to the amount of demand that actually exists. Prices may go up due to this, but as long as they can streamline manufacturing, by laying off people, selling assets, heck, going into bankruptcy, then that's what they'll do. They won't sit around and sell a car for 40K that costs 50K to make. Ain't going to happen.

[Alfisti]

Originally Posted by chassis

Thanks Alfisti. What do you recommend that you, anyone reading this thread, or your/our governments do? What action needs taken?

Please try to frame the reply in the context of the original post on this thread.

From an economic perspective, the horse has bolted. In Canada and the US the spending and deficits in boom times was an appalling lack of spine and means there is no war chest, so we are now adding monumental debt to monumental debt to try and keep everyone afloat.

I am not saying I have answers, i am saying the damage is going to be of epic proportions and folks are deluding themselves if they think this all goes back to normal in a hurry. We are seriously, seriously looking down the barrel of 20% unemployment, the consequences of that are near unimaginable.

[See5]

Originally Posted by Alfisti

From an economic perspective, the horse has bolted. In Canada and the US the spending and deficits in boom times was an appalling lack of spine and means there is no war chest, so we are now adding monumental debt to monumental debt to try and keep everyone afloat.

I am not saying I have answers, i am saying the damage is going to be of epic proportions and folks are deluding themselves if they think this all goes back to normal in a hurry. We are seriously, seriously looking down the barrel of 20% unemployment, the consequences of that are near unimaginable.

Agreed on most parts. We're not looking at the 2008 recession as a comparison for this economic crisis anymore. We're way past that.