Stock market tips and experiences

[bimmer pleaser V2]

Originally Posted by XKxRome0ox

the printer goes brrrrrrrrrrrr

S&P at all time high
how long can this go on for?

I think stock market has lost that tiny connection to the welfare state of the middle class it used to have. As of 2020 I think the richest 1% owned the majority of equity, and definitely has gotten more lopsided in 2021. Job market has recovered a lot but still way off what it was when Dow was not this high. At the end of day, I think there will be corrections as usual but nothing like the 2008 fiasco. As soon as it gets a little bad the fed will flood the market with cash. All just my opinion, none of this is financial advice.

P.S. the auto sales were significantly down in 2020 but supercars sales were up, way up.

[antzcrashing]

On April 16 GME is going to be higher than it is today and I wouldnt be surprised with 300-400 a share. Why? Bc roaring-kitty owns options that expire that day, and the reddit crowd is going to make it rain.

Obviously this is purely a guess

[bimmer pleaser V2]

Originally Posted by bimmer pleaser V2

I think stock market has lost that tiny connection to the welfare state of the middle class it used to have. As of 2020 I think the richest 1% owned the majority of equity, and definitely has gotten more lopsided in 2021. Job market has recovered a lot but still way off what it was when Dow was not this high. At the end of day, I think there will be corrections as usual but nothing like the 2008 fiasco. As soon as it gets a little bad the fed will flood the market with cash. All just my opinion, none of this is financial advice.

P.S. the auto sales were significantly down in 2020 but supercars sales were up, way up.

$9M worth of options

[dtox9]

So....... what's everyone's take on MUDS........
The acquisition of TOPPS and their anticipation of issuing Tokens is interesting....

[floridaorange]

here's my tip - take all your dry powder and set it aside until the market becomes a bit more predictable. There will be plenty of good opportunities left and you won't feel beaten up like you will if you stay around...

[Littlebear]

Originally Posted by floridaorange

here's my tip - take all your dry powder and set it aside until the market becomes a bit more predictable. There will be plenty of good opportunities left and you won't feel beaten up like you will if you stay around...

I have a little trouble with this strategy. Timing when to get back in is hard. You could miss a big rush before re-entering.

Murf

[floridaorange]

Originally Posted by Littlebear

I have a little trouble with this strategy. Timing when to get back in is hard. You could miss a big rush before re-entering.

Murf

Originally Posted by Littlebear

I have a little trouble with this strategy. Timing when to get back in is hard. You could miss a big rush before re-entering.

Murf

Just buy a few shares of whatever you want but keep the big bux sidelined

[ImolaMoop]

Originally Posted by floridaorange

here's my tip - take all your dry powder and set it aside until the market becomes a bit more predictable. There will be plenty of good opportunities left and you won't feel beaten up like you will if you stay around...

The market isn’t predictable and 99.9% of people are incapable of timing it. Are you the 0.1%?

[Littlebear]

Originally Posted by ImolaMoop

The market isn’t predictable and 99.9% of people are incapable of timing it. Are you the 0.1%?

I'm not above making adjustments when things go bad, but I usually do it too late!
As long as I have solid stocks, what goes down should go up. Sometimes rapidly!

Murf

[chassis]

Originally Posted by floridaorange

here's my tip - take all your dry powder and set it aside until the market becomes a bit more predictable. There will be plenty of good opportunities left and you won't feel beaten up like you will if you stay around...

floridaorange what is an earlier time period in your view that would have been, at the time, predictable and the conditions existed where you would have invested dry powder?

[floridaorange]

If you are skilled at shorting - that's the ticket right now - it's something I'm still working on mastering - I think there is still some money to be made - but primarily by riding the red wave, not green.

My hope is that changes in about 5 months - but until then be cautious.

I've made crazy returns the past 1.5 yrs and that has come to a halt since about Mid Feb. Shorting is the way currently. Since the funny money is drying up.

GLTA!

ps - jerome powell speaks today - if you don't care about your stocks dropping 10% do nothing.

[antzcrashing]

Originally Posted by ImolaMoop

The market isn’t predictable and 99.9% of people are incapable of timing it. Are you the 0.1%?

This is what people tell you when they dont want you to make money. They tell you arent smart or that the deck is stacked against you. Dont believe the bullshit. With a few exceptions everyone is timing the market, some use more hedges such as averaging in, etc. you CAN time the market with common sense, intuition, and by listening to the news and hype.

[floridaorange]

Absolutely you can, I hope you all make millions....it's just a lot tougher right now. This might just be my experience only and everyone else is killing it.

[chassis]

floridaorange What was the historical time period that met your criteria for investing dry powder? If, as you suggest in your earlier post, now is not the time to do it?

What is your financial phase of life? Are you growing capital, or decumulating? What is your personal risk appetite?

I am growing capital and have a higher than average risk appetite.

[Kick 6]

The main problem I see is how big money manipulates a share's price. Sometimes, they'll have the bid and the ask price on a stock. If you ever watch L2, you can see it. If they do that for Nasdaq, you know they are doing it on the DOW.

One can use an algorithm and predict what a stock is going to do to a high degree of certainty. What can't be predicted is how long it will stay in its current trajectory. The old saying "It takes money to make money" certainly applies. Over 60% of trades now are based on algorithms and that is the Big Money.

[XKxRome0ox]

cash is a position and you should always have cash on hand

[chassis]

floridaorange What did you think of Powell's comments today? Did you watch/listen online?

[insanecoder]

everybody thinks they are a genius when the market goes up
try and be a short in this market and tell me if you are biting yer nails 24/7
bottom line is you are never let in on when they decide to pull the rug
and most people lost their shirts when they do
I've been thru 4 such crashes now since the 80s but I know u young'uns always know

[TheFanatic]

Originally Posted by insanecoder

everybody thinks they are a genius when the market goes up
try and be a short in this market and tell me if you are biting yer nails 24/7
bottom line is you are never let in on when they decide to pull the rug
and most people lost their shirts when they do
I've been thru 4 such crashes now since the 80s but I know u young'uns always know

I've seen my fair share of older generations lose it all on the stocks as well, age has nothing to do with it.

[XKxRome0ox]

Originally Posted by chassis

floridaorange What did you think of Powell's comments today? Did you watch/listen online?

must have been fine because the index funds are up a bit

[XutvJet]

I've been investing since the late 1990s when I entered the work force. At first, my investment funding started as a trickle as my salary was something like $29K and I couldn't afford to put much away. I've learned a lot over the years and have lost large amounts during all the market drops between 1998 and now. With those market drops came HUGE market increases where I gained it all back plus way more.

I had a financial advisor from 2003-2013. I kept putting as much in as I could as my salary grew and grew over the years. My salary increased substantially in 2012. I also fired my adviser in 2012, moved over the Vanguard so I could do things myself, and I changed my investment strategy. I generally followed Warren Buffett's 2-minute retirement plan and went with mostly all S&P 500 index funds in my brokerage, his and her Roth IRAs, IRA (from an old 401K), and my current current employer 401K. I also have a fair amount of Berkshire Class B, about 10% in bond funds, and a few "fun" stocks where I've rolled the dice. My most lucrative stock being being Activision Blizzard recommended by my teenage son. I bought about $20K of it and it's now worth $54K in two years.

The market has been very good to me in the past 9 years or so and I've stuck to my investment strategy and goals. My goal was to retire in 5 years at the age of 52. I'm currently $150K from that goal I had originally set. I think retiring at 47 would be a bit stupid, but I am considering going part-time (30 hours/wk, 20% pay and benefit cut).

[antzcrashing]

Sounds like its story time so here's mine:

Began looking for my first career job in 2009 just after the crash and the market wasn't great so went directly to grad school, somehow managed to get accepted to my top choice an Ivy League school which had my major. Long story short graduated 2 years later and the market was much healthier then. Saw my parent's investment and retirement accounts get hammered, fortunately they didn't panic sell, so they recovered over time. I was too young and too poor to put money in the market during that crash but watching it all play out made me a hawk. Buy when there is blood in the water and sell when everyone thinks its roses. I've taken advise from someone that capitalized big on the downturn, his advice: keep cash on the sidelines waiting for the moment. The only way I see that to be possible is to pare back cash by selling stock when you sense that things are just too optimistic. That happened for me mid through 2019. Started parking most of my brokerage and half of my 401k in cash. Granted I started too early, but when the pandemic hit I dumped all that money and some more that I got from a bonus payout into the market. Made 50% on my overall brokerage portfolio and that with only as much as 85% invested. The market was on fire and you could do well buying the s&p, but my way worked as well or better. I buy individual stocks in large part, trading frequently. This might not be your style but it has worked for me.

Right now it seems like the market has factored in the vaccine and reopening and that the big gains are behind us, but I am not convinced. There is still a lot of money sidelined waiting for the risk(s) to be mitigated before they jump back in. I am almost fully invested (90% in market) and skewed heavily in stocks which will benefit from the reopen (travel, leisure, etc).