Financial experts?

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by matty088

What makes you think I am not a professional? That was arrogant assumption.

Show me professionals that are beating the market. You realize the hedge fund community has woefully underperformed the market pretty much forever. And vanilla mutual funds struggle to beat the market. Most can not. Hence the rise and now fame of passive strategies. The very best and most acclaimed are failing.

I am sorry you are just wrong. There really is no way other way to put it.

As I stated earlier I work in HFT, and given what you've said so far, clearly you don't. Hedge funds are not HFTs, and I do not advise in investing in them until you have so much money that you'd like some orthogonal to the market exposure.

Incidentally there are now some public HFTs - perhaps you should look up how they're doing.

[matty088]

Lol. Please. Enough with the weather. Bring some facts to the table. Your logic doesn’t apply to the stock market. It applies to the weather. It applies to many things actually. But the stock market it most certainly doesn’t apply to amd there are facts every where that support my assertion. It’s pretty common knowledge actually.

I’ll raise this point then I am spent unless you bring something more meaty to the table to discuss other than the weather. It’s very very common for stocks to beat earnings substantially. Then the stock goes down on the day of the report. Why is that. Bc the short term is gambling and based on far too many factors for anyone to have a handle on. Or how come great economic news can come out then the market sells off. The point here is that there are many more variables in the short term that are very subjective in nature and impossible for anyone, Joe Schmo or bill ackman, To profit from.

Here is another point. Professionals. As you call them generally manage sizable amounts of money which creates a diseconomies of scale due to liquidity. They can’t just get in and out of positions at the flick of a switch like you can. It could take days weeks months. So for real professionals the notion of the short term is literally off the table for mechanical reasons. And Nothing can change that.

Most professionals try to shy away from the short term. If you are speaking of day trading shops. You realize lots of those places are scams. They have you bring in your own money. Leverage you up. You participate on a small fraction of the upside but then on the hook for 100% of the downside. And in the meantime they profit from your trading flow.

Just bc I am typing quick and really don’t care about grammar don’t make assumptions

[matty088]

I have had to deal with hft as an adversary to my flows for decades. So yes. I know all about hft.

[upstatedoc]

IDK what's going on here OP

[matty088]

Originally Posted by upstatedoc

IDK what's going on here OP

Sorry just bored. I’ll stop now.

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by matty088

Lol. Please. Enough with the weather. Bring some facts to the table. Your logic doesn’t apply to the stock market. It applies to the weather. It applies to many things actually. But the stock market it most certainly doesn’t apply to amd there are facts every where that support my assertion. It’s pretty common knowledge actually.

I’ll raise this point then I am spent unless you bring something more meaty to the table to discuss other than the weather. It’s very very common for stocks to beat earnings substantially. Then the stock goes down on the day of the report. Why is that. Bc the short term is gambling and based on far too many factors for anyone to have a handle on. Or how come great economic news can come out then the market sells off. The point here is that there are many more variables in the short term that are very subjective in nature and impossible for anyone, Joe Schmo or bill ackman, To profit from.

Here is another point. Professionals. As you call them generally manage sizable amounts of money which creates a diseconomies of scale due to liquidity. They can’t just get in and out of positions at the flick of a switch like you can. It could take days weeks months.

Most professionals try to shy away from the short term. If you are speaking of day trading shops. You realize lots of those places are scams. They have you bring in your own money. Leverage you up. You participate on a small fraction of the upside but then on the hook for 100% of the downside. And in the meantime they profit from your trading flow.

Just bc I am typing quick and really don’t care about grammar don’t make assumptions

I gave you a stock market prediction. Feel free to backtest its accuracy.

The answer to your question about prices - largely because people make stupid decisions thinking they can predict the prices when in fact they can't. These people usually get wiped out quickly.

There exist companies that have been consistently making money over billions of trades over decades by predicting future prices. Some are very well known.

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by matty088

I have had to deal with hft as an adversary to my flows for decades. So yes. I know all about hft.

No, you don't. You have a misconception because you're not as good at predicting prices, but so is almost everyone else. Again feel free to ask, I'm happy to answer.

[matty088]

Just bc tsla price could be relatively close to where it is today for tomorrow. What does that mean. How do we profit from that. What are you even talking about at this point.

[Noneya]

Very long time ago I used to play online poker for a living. I can't count how many times I've seen non-professional players complain how the table/game was rigged. In fact they were just worse at poker.

[Noneya]

Originally Posted by matty088

Just bc tsla price could be relatively close to where it is today for tomorrow. What does that mean. How do we profit from that. What are you even talking about at this point.

That was an illustration of a short term price prediction. You can't profit off of it.

[matty088]

Originally Posted by Noneya

That was an illustration of a short term price prediction. You can't profit off of it.

Lol. On that note. Goodnight

[Frupal]

There certainly are a lot of opinions. I am quite new to the market - about 18 months. Though my portfolio is a bit tech heavy, I bought stocks in companies I believed in and I plan on holding them for at least another three years until I retire - and I might still keep them after that.

I ‘freaked out’ in March and nearly sold everything, but a friend of mine who’d been in the market for decades told me to hold tight and he was right. It appears that the average long term return in the market is about 8% far better than the 0.8% that you get in a bank.

I’m grateful for all of your thoughtful responses. Thank you all very much!

[bimmerfrk]

Originally Posted by Frupal

There certainly are a lot of opinions. I am quite new to the market - about 18 months. Though my portfolio is a bit tech heavy, I bought stocks in companies I believed in and I plan on holding them for at least another three years until I retire - and I might still keep them after that.

I 'freaked out' in March and nearly sold everything, but a friend of mine who'd been in the market for decades told me to hold tight and he was right. It appears that the average long term return in the market is about 8% far better than the 0.8% that you get in a bank.

I'm grateful for all of your thoughtful responses. Thank you all very much!

You guys are making this so hard.

By low sell high. I called it months ago when markets were gonna crash and jumped out. Slowly back in in end of April and back out again now as of mid August.

Why risk your money on non rational volatility due to the pandemic, economic and political cycle.

If you think institutional investors won't take profits going into the new year your are crazy. Most hedges are starting to close the books for they year or finding a strategy to do so. Equity markets may push higher next year right now every one wants to close out positive or at least even for the year.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Noneya

Finally, the advice of putting money in an index fund and not looking at it cannot be overstated. Anything else you do is pure gambling and thinking otherwise is a delusion.

YES.

[Frupal]

I just read an article that posited that some of the current market volatility is due to ‘Pandemic day traders,’ millions of New ‘Robinhooders’ day trading, making or losing perhaps $20 - $50.00 per trade, which they do all day long. The article also said that ultimately most of these inexperienced folks will lose pretty much all of their money. This makes sense to me. What do you think?

[chassis]

Originally Posted by Frupal

I just read an article that posited that some of the current market volatility is due to ‘Pandemic day traders,’ millions of New ‘Robinhooders’ day trading, making or losing perhaps $20 - $50.00 per trade, which they do all day long. The article also said that ultimately most of these inexperienced folks will lose pretty much all of their money. This makes sense to me. What do you think?

Frupal Can you share a link to the article?

[Frupal]

Originally Posted by chassis

Frupal Can you share a link to the article?

Here you go: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...et-upside-down

[David70]

For the idea that the big boys do significantly better than the rest because of the speed and data they have, try to find an investment company that does significantly better than the market over the long term and it is extremely difficult. Then when you look at the past and how they did it is almost always (sometimes they are lucky) because they bought stocks of companies or sectors they thought would do better in the medium to long term, not trading hundreds of times a day. If technology and speed was the answer virtually all of them should do better than the guy that buys index funds and holds onto them. I don't think the data supports this idea.

Are there lots of examples of "big boys" that did far better than the stock market over the last 10 years because of their ability to quickly trade and their technology in making these trades?

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by David70

For the idea that the big boys do significantly better than the rest because of the speed and data they have, try to find an investment company that does significantly better than the market over the long term and it is extremely difficult. Then when you look at the past and how they did it is almost always (sometimes they are lucky) because they bought stocks of companies or sectors they thought would do better in the medium to long term, not trading hundreds of times a day. If technology and speed was the answer virtually all of them should do better than the guy that buys index funds and holds onto them. I don't think the data supports this idea.

Are there lots of examples of "big boys" that did far better than the stock market over the last 10 years because of their ability to quickly trade and their technology in making these trades?

My training is in economics, although I am not a professional or professorial economist. I recall a story about a well respected economist (you already know it isn’t true), walking with his protege down the avenue in New York City discussing the knife-edge theory when the young protege spots a $20 bill on the ground. As they near it the youth stoops to pick it up, but the seasoned economist holds his arm, preventing him from getting the bill. The youth asks why he did it, and the economist responds, “if it was really there someone would have picked it up by now”.

Opportunities exist, but they are fleeting. Program trading works until it doesn’t - generally until another program is faster or more accurate, or both. But even that seems to be ruled by Zeno’s paradox.

[David70]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

My training is in economics, although I am not a professional or professorial economist. I recall a story about a well respected economist (you already know it isn’t true), walking with his protege down the avenue in New York City discussing the knife-edge theory when the young protege spots a $20 bill on the ground. As they near it the youth stoops to pick it up, but the seasoned economist holds his arm, preventing him from getting the bill. The youth asks why he did it, and the economist responds, “if it was really there someone would have picked it up by now”.

Opportunities exist, but they are fleeting. Program trading works until it doesn’t - generally until another program is faster or more accurate, or both. But even that seems to be ruled by Zeno’s paradox.

A friend of mine says he has a system where he bets on swimming events (first surprise) as he was a college swimmer and goes through lots of data and follows what betting sites are doing. Of course the data and system sounds great, then I say it's impossible that he wins all the time, he agrees. I ask what percentage of the time he wins and he says 80% of the time. With this I offer to give him $10,000 to bet and if what he says is correct with enough bets and some time it should be almost guaranteed win for me over time and with this I say he can have half the winnings. Of course when put on the spot for the "great system" he suddenly starts backtracking on my odds of winning and doesn't want to be part of betting my money.