When is the rolex bubble going to pop?

[Blksnowflake]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

well the batman is going to keep going higher. Rolex has announced it is being discontinued for the time being.

Prices typically fall spring/early summer, then start going back up late summer/fall.

All dependent on any major rolex announcements of course. If they come back with "SS Sport models wont be limited moving forward" expect prices to drop back to pre "SS Models will be limited" announcement last year.

Rolex didn't announce anything. Speculators did. It's still on the Rolex website.

[Blksnowflake]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

It's been removed from here
https://m.rolex.com/watches/configure.html#/

It has also been removed from the ad catalogs for 2019.

This is how they "announce" it. They don't typically say "x watch will be gone" they just quietly remove it.

The speculation is on what the ln and blnr get replaced with. That is what we will find out at basel.

As for the availability, rolex told its ads to expect more limited quantities. As far as waitlists go, that's ad dependent. Spend a bunch at your ad, your wait is going to be much shorter than someone who walks off the street wanting to be on the waitlist.

Again, lots of wrong information. Rolex isn't telling ADs there's limited quantities. ADs are saying this. Two different things. There is only one single Rolex owned boutique in the entire world, just one. The rest are just Rolex brand authorized dealers.
The BLNR is still on the configurator. The Rolex website is trash. You have to pick the steel then the bezel...All three bezels are still there. It wasn't in the normal catalog but the BLNR was in the master catalog. That has been confirmed. The standard catalog that people get over the counter at ADs doesn't include every single Rolex model, also, this has been confirmed in the past.

A bunch of idiots went into a panic after Basel because the BLNR wasn't in the Basel press materials...meanwhile the watch was clearly displayed at Basel along with the LN and new BLRO. No watch that has been cancelled by Rolex has ever been shown at Basel in the presentation displays.
Only in the history or lineage displays.

If the BLNR really has stopped, I can bet my money that it is just being updated to the new movement. Same for the black LN which no-one is talking about because it isn't as popular and has always been easy to get. People are just using social media to hype things up so they can see the value of their watch go up or in hopes of reselling and making a profit.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by Blksnowflake

Rolex didn't announce anything. Speculators did. It's still on the Rolex website.

It has been removed from the AD catalogs for 2019. That is the rolex announcement

ADs can not order or put in for the BLNR

IIRC, there wasnt a rolex statement saying "16710 is discontinued" either. They did what they do, remove from catalogs/ordering, announce the replacement.

we can keep rehashing this over and over, but until you show me a 2019 catalog with the BLNR, ill believe the ones Ive seen without it.

[Blksnowflake]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

It has been removed from the AD catalogs for 2019. That is the rolex announcement

ADs can not order or put in for the BLNR

IIRC, there wasnt a rolex statement saying "16710 is discontinued" either. They did what they do, remove from catalogs/ordering, announce the replacement.

we can keep rehashing this over and over, but until you show me a 2019 catalog with the BLNR, ill believe the ones Ive seen without it.

It's still on the website. and go to your AD if you're on good terms with them and ask to see the 2019 master catalog. It's in there. The screenshot I posted was just now...I just did that just now...people are still buying them 'till this very day, arriving in stores....don't know what else to tell you.

They never discontinued but your logic for the 16710 is flawed as it was obvious with the coming of the 116710 with the then new 3186 movement that only a few 16710 managed to get.

[ASAP]

I agree there is a ton of BS going around forums and social media... the supply on SS models is indeed a bit tight but no one really knows the reason why, I do however expect it to go down significantly the moment Rolex makes some sort of announcement or change. The used market price will also go down quite a bit... I paid full price for my SUB but I think a lot of that has to do with false hype; I expect within 6 or so months to have these watches available under msrp.

[Blksnowflake]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I agree there is a ton of BS going around forums and social media... the supply on SS models is indeed a bit tight but no one really knows the reason why, I do however expect it to go down significantly the moment Rolex makes some sort of announcement or change. The used market price will also go down quite a bit... I paid full price for my SUB but I think a lot of that has to do with false hype; I expect within 6 or so months to have these watches available under msrp.

I wouldn't expect the prices to shift but the second hand market may lower a bit.
People say there's a shortage, however, if you visit grey dealers in China or anywhere else in the world or even pull up social media you will see that they have numerous quantities of all the recent releases and popular models.

Where are they getting them from?
Lots of rumors and chatter about what is supposedly going on with the most popular theory being the economy jumped up and so did demand, a demand that Rolex didn't expect and one which came right at the time a new movement was being introduced while at the same time coexisting with current products.
Example...GMT2's using both 3186 and 3285 movements....that takes a lot of coordination to retool the factory in between batches, also the two BLROs using the same bezel but in different metals...the Datejust switched movement and bracelets, discontinuation of the ladies 26mm and updating all 28mm and 31mm Datejusts and ladies DJ president models, etc etc..

It may seem easy because Rolex is highly mechanized but look at how long an individual color from BMW takes and all they have to do to reprogram the robots for just a few or just one car, that gives an idea.
Either way, no clear answers, but as for shortage, I honestly don't believe it. You want shortage, look at a 5711, ss is precious metal for Patek. But hop over anywhere in the world for second hand or grey sales and you will see any model you want in abundance with the exception of two, the Rainbow Daytona and Blue dial BLRO in white gold, both in production for a ridiculously short time.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by Blksnowflake

It's still on the website. and go to your AD if you're on good terms with them and ask to see the 2019 master catalog. It's in there. The screenshot I posted was just now...I just did that just now...people are still buying them 'till this very day, arriving in stores....don't know what else to tell you.

They never discontinued but your logic for the 16710 is flawed as it was obvious with the coming of the 116710 with the then new 3186 movement that only a few 16710 managed to get.

I have seen the catalogs from the ADs i work with.

there is a new gmt movement, the 3285.

the current 116710ln/blnr with 3186 is not being made. If they modify the case or use the case in the new BLRO to fit the slightly bigger 3285, that is different.

[ny325]

Rolex has lost its mind with these prices. And I’m sure prices will continue to increase after the new models are out.

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by ny325

Rolex has lost its mind with these prices. And I’m sure prices will continue to increase after the new models are out.

I agree, but the same could be said for many of the watch brands; however, with Rolex, your watch will retain its value better than say an Omega or Breitling.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by The Libertine

I agree, but the same could be said for many of the watch brands; however, with Rolex, your watch will retain its value better than say an Omega or Breitling.

Buying 2nd hand is the only way to truely retain your value.

Rolex is the only 10k and under watch I would consider buying brand new just because the 2nd hand market for them is ridiculous. Which, is exactly what Rolex wants.

[hooligan_G01]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

Buying 2nd hand is the only way to truely retain your value.

Rolex is the only 10k and under watch I would consider buying brand new just because the 2nd hand market for them is ridiculous. Which, is exactly what Rolex wants.

The DeBeers of the watch world!

[Karmic Man]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

Buying 2nd hand is the only way to truely retain your value.

Rolex is the only 10k and under watch I would consider buying brand new just because the 2nd hand market for them is ridiculous. Which, is exactly what Rolex wants.

That is IF the AD will sell one to you.
For those who wanted a Hulk, Batman, Pepsi, Daytona...etc how many of them actually got a new watch from a AD?

[Karmic Man]

Originally Posted by Blksnowflake

I wouldn't expect the prices to shift but the second hand market may lower a bit.
People say there's a shortage, however, if you visit grey dealers in China or anywhere else in the world or even pull up social media you will see that they have numerous quantities of all the recent releases and popular models.

Where are they getting them from?
Lots of rumors and chatter about what is supposedly going on with the most popular theory being the economy jumped up and so did demand, a demand that Rolex didn't expect and one which came right at the time a new movement was being introduced while at the same time coexisting with current products.
Example...GMT2's using both 3186 and 3285 movements....that takes a lot of coordination to retool the factory in between batches, also the two BLROs using the same bezel but in different metals...the Datejust switched movement and bracelets, discontinuation of the ladies 26mm and updating all 28mm and 31mm Datejusts and ladies DJ president models, etc etc..

It may seem easy because Rolex is highly mechanized but look at how long an individual color from BMW takes and all they have to do to reprogram the robots for just a few or just one car, that gives an idea.
Either way, no clear answers, but as for shortage, I honestly don't believe it. You want shortage, look at a 5711, ss is precious metal for Patek. But hop over anywhere in the world for second hand or grey sales and you will see any model you want in abundance with the exception of two, the Rainbow Daytona and Blue dial BLRO in white gold, both in production for a ridiculously short time.

That's why supply is tight. The factory can only make so many watches per year and now with the Chinese market opened up they sucked up a lot of the supply from Rolex.

To make more watches you need to higher more skilled watchmaker and invest in more equipment and inventories. A lot of people didn't think about it and think Rolex should just increase supply but it is not so simple.

[TheWatchGuy]

Originally Posted by Karmic Man

That's why supply is tight. The factory can only make so many watches per year and now with the Chinese market opened up they sucked up a lot of the supply from Rolex.

To make more watches you need to higher more skilled watchmaker and invest in more equipment and inventories. A lot of people didn't think about it and think Rolex should just increase supply but it is not so simple.

if that was the case, it wouldnt have been an "all of a sudden" limitation.

2017 you could walk into most ADs, not just Rolex Boutiques, and buy a GMT LN or a Sub LN at MSRP or in some cases, slightly under if you bought a couple pieces. Starting in early 2018, all of a sudden, the normal ADs I would go to, couldnt get either for even a display model.

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

Buying 2nd hand is the only way to truely retain your value.

Rolex is the only 10k and under watch I would consider buying brand new just because the 2nd hand market for them is ridiculous. Which, is exactly what Rolex wants.

I bought my 14060 M new at an AD, and could easily sell it now for more than what I paid.

[Karmic Man]

Originally Posted by TheWatchGuy

if that was the case, it wouldnt have been an "all of a sudden" limitation.

2017 you could walk into most ADs, not just Rolex Boutiques, and buy a GMT LN or a Sub LN at MSRP or in some cases, slightly under if you bought a couple pieces. Starting in early 2018, all of a sudden, the normal ADs I would go to, couldnt get either for even a display model.

In Australia and in Asia, you can never walk in and buy a GMT LN or Sub LN straight away (unless you are spending 250k+) for quite a long time...not just in the last 1-2 years.

I guess the demand outstrip supply issue is now so severe that your part of the world is also affected. People used to be able to buy steel Rolex diving watches in Dubai fairly easily as most locals prefer Gold. Now recently steel watches are also out of supply there.

Trusted source in one AD told me the amount of Rolex they are receiving are much less than before...

[ny325]

In the tristate area, good luck trying to find a SS submariner. Nobody has one.

[ASAP]

I am almost willing to bet this is all hype towards Basel (in March). There will be new versions of a few models released (or new movements) and the market will be dumped with supply... nothing else makes sense.

Even if demand doubled; you would still see Steel Subs everywhere; I don't exactly think the demand went up 10x... I just don't buy that.

[Ehloo]

What Must dont understand is the AD has watches in the back safe. Maybe not every model but they have a much bigger selection that they are telling you. They are not for the walk in client and won’t tell you they have anything. Spend some big cash with the store on something else and ask and sure they will disclose what they have.

I have purchased my SS Daytona and Batman at retail, no waiting, from my AD on the spot. I did spend a good amount on a custom diamond ring for my wife. I literally bought the ring and asked do you have a Daytona and they said what color would you like. They had 4 in the back.

[ny325]

I agree Ehloo. My friend is a GM at highly reputable AD in the tristate area. He has every SS sport model in the back safe. You won't see them in the front case. There for customer's who have spent several thousand on watches over the years. I purchased my SS Submariner, SS OP Datejust, and Cartier watch from him.

[N54Yankee]

Originally Posted by The Libertine

I bought my 14060 M new at an AD, and could easily sell it now for more than what I paid.

Bought my 14040m from a NY AD close to 10 years ago, I'll never sell it but it's sure nice knowing it's appreciated nicely over that time. Most watches price crashes the second it leaves the store it was purchased from. Just another perk of the brand.

[DanG]

I have no plans ever to sell either of my Rolex (Blue face Yatchmaster or my Explorer II). I really don’t care what their resale value is. Both watches are special to me.