Native Floridians - your take on Milton?

[Chihuahua]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

My son lives in a new townhome on Tampa area - built to modern codes and hurricane standards.

We decided that he should install his shutters, turn off breakers to bottom level (garage, storage and foyer), and spend a couple nights in Orlando, just to be safe and not have the car flooded or be trapped by water.

Given everything about the storm's path, how might Orlando area be impacted? Asking because his mother is cranking up the anxiety machine and has him spooked about his plan.

My guess is that worse case scenario is that his hotel loses power for a bit. At this point, it looks like the storm will travel well South of Orlando.

I'm from Pinellas county originally. How Tampa Bay will be impacted really depends on where the center of the storm makes landfall. 20 to 30 miles in either direction can mean the difference between water being sucked out of Tampa Bay versus 15 feet of storm surge. If the latter happens, you don't want to be just about anywhere in Pinellas or south Tampa areas, you will 100% be under water. The trouble is everyone there is complacent, they think they'll be fine riding it out but Tampa hasn't taken a direct impact from a storm like this in over 100 years. I evacuated for Irma, and if I were still there I'd have left already. There's a good chance Orlando sees localized flooding, power outages but his plan to ride it out in Orlando is a sound one IMO. If he can get further north, that's even better but Orlando is a much better option than staying in Hillsborough county. What part of Tampa is he in exactly? Best of luck to anyone that is having to deal with this in any shape or form.

[freakystyly]

Just saw an update, they bumped Milton up from cat 4 this morning to cat 5 about 3 hours later.

Hope the folks in the Yucatan area are OK too, looks like it will clip the peninsula.

[M_Six]

160MPH winds. Yikes.

[Tyga11]

I rode out Andrew in 93. I've been thru a bunch of these storms. Most of the time the media overblows them.

[Josh-PA]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I rode out Andrew in 93. I've been thru a bunch of these storms. Most of the time the media overblows them.

tell that to the coastal tampa community next week.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

I rode out Andrew in 93. I've been thru a bunch of these storms. Most of the time the media overblows them.

Where were you for Andrew?

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by freakystyly

Just saw an update, they bumped Milton up from cat 4 this morning to cat 5 about 3 hours later.

Hope the folks in the Yucatan area are OK too, looks like it will clip the peninsula.

I saw that too, but they are saying it should come down in intensity as it nears the coast. I am by no means counting on that, or complacent. It is still projected to be cat 3 at landfall. Still very worrisome.

[Josh-PA]

It will weaken, but expand in size (so you trade max winds for a wider storm surge). This is a really good breakdown of the forecast if you're interested:

[cmyx6go]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

Where were you for Andrew?

Was Andrew the one that devastated Homestead?

[Chihuahua]

Originally Posted by cmyx6go

Was Andrew the one that devastated Homestead?

Yes. CAT5.

[David70]

Makes me laugh when someone says most of the time you will be fine or it's the media making a big deal of it. They report what happened, most people not having a problem is correct but meaningless. Imagine telling the people that have feet of water in their house that it's not a big deal for most.

They tell you to evacuate, you tell them there's a good chance you don't need to, then it turns out you should have and expect them to help you.

I grew up in FL, still have family there, most people in the state never had hurricane problems, some had a huge problem or got killed by them.

[DrVenture]

I have actually been following Florida hurricanes for a few decades as my MIL lived in Punta Gorda and was impacted bgy Charley. Each time one would head their way, I would be braced for the worst. Weirdly, they were at 6' elevation and practically on the Peace River, they never had water intrusion in 3 decades. The worst was when they went, at last minute, to a hotel in Ft Myers and the car got flooded in the parking lot. Then the hotel lost power.

A few times I dealt with the aftermath, as far as organizing repairs, the damage was always mostly superficial. Which, in retrospect, is surprising. A pool cage and A/C unit ripped off the house in Charley. And some minor wind damage in fall 2022, less than the insurance deductible. And I saw buildings a mile away that were practically leveled.

Thanks to all for the advice. Best of luck to everyone in the affected areas.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by Chihuahua

Yes. CAT5.

and pre-current building code.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by Josh-PA

It will weaken, but expand in size (so you trade max winds for a wider storm surge). This is a really good breakdown of the forecast if you're interested:

Thank you.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by David70

Makes me laugh when someone says most of the time you will be fine or it's the media making a big deal of it. They report what happened, most people not having a problem is correct but meaningless. Imagine telling the people that have feet of water in their house that it's not a big deal for most.

They tell you to evacuate, you tell them there's a good chance you don't need to, then it turns out you should have and expect them to help you.

I grew up in FL, still have family there, most people in the state never had hurricane problems, some had a huge problem or got killed by them.

Both things are true. The local media does overhype storms that are not really threats to every area. Sometimes it seems like the local media is wishing for a local storm to hit. The frequency of this happening contributes to complacency.

But you always need to use common sense and be prepared for storms if you live here, especially when you get close to the coast. If you live close to the coast that’s forecast to be hit, you absolutely need to leave. If you live inland, you need to prep to get through a week or so with no power, water or accessible stores. Most of that prep can take place weeks or months before a storm is anywhere in the area.

For as long as I’ve lived in FL (close to 40 years), there are three types of people when it comes to storms: those who panic, those who dismiss it and those who prep rationally. I think that last group is the smallest.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by cmyx6go

Was Andrew the one that devastated Homestead?

Yes. I was fortunate to be in the northern part of Miami-Dade county for that one. I’ll always remember driving a Ryder truck with supplies down south (not even all the way to Homestead) and seeing the absolute destruction along the way.

[M_Six]

My ex was a claims adjuster for an insurance company that had thousands of covered homes in the Homestead area. They very nearly went under after Andrew. They laid off most of their support staff, so my ex had to do things like sort incoming mail and order supplies in addition to handling claims. But at least she kept her job.

[M-technik-3]

Just wondering when people that live in Florida stop rebuilding. Insurance companies no longer want anything to do with the state.

Sad to see the vacation state like this.

[RickFLM4]

Originally Posted by M-technik-3

Just wondering when people that live in Florida stop rebuilding. Insurance companies no longer want anything to do with the state.

Sad to see the vacation state like this.

What state has ever stopped rebuilding after disasters? Hawaii? California? Louisiana? States in Tornado Alley? States that get flooded?

[M_Six]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

What state has ever stopped rebuilding after disasters? Hawaii? California? Louisiana? States in Tornado Alley? States that get flooded?

The South Shore of Massachusetts (Scituate, Duxbury, Plymouth) gets slammed every winter. And every spring they rebuild all those houses. Rinse and repeat.

[DocL]

Originally Posted by RickFLM4

...For as long as I’ve lived in FL (close to 40 years), there are three types of people when it comes to storms: those who panic, those who dismiss it and those who prep rationally. I think that last group is the smallest.

This is a spot on assessment. I'm in the third group, thank you. The insanity at Costco and Publix the past few days in Boca and Delray has been ridiculous.