Stock market tips and experiences

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I know what hedging is, but selling options is the better way to do it since you could be collecting premium.

So for you selling a call is worth the risk because you collect the premium. That is moronic. Do not do that.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

LOL! So you've been hedging with TVIX for how many years? If you've even made any money, how much has "hedging with TVIX" set you back? Because there's no way you're actually not losing a considerable amount.

You don't know what hedging is...

Or rather, you don't know how to hedge or hedge properly.

[F1Venom]

So take me through you hedging a position.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

LOL! So you've been hedging with TVIX for how many years? If you've even made any money, how much has "hedging with TVIX" set you back? Because there's no way you're actually not losing a considerable amount.

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

So for you selling a call is worth the risk because you collect the premium. That is moronic. Do not do that.

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

You don't know what hedging is...

Or rather, you don't know how to hedge or hedge properly.

Originally Posted by F1Venom

So take me through you hedging a position.

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

Do you know what hedging is? Your statement is moot. Why would you wait until there is a spike in volatility to hedge volatility? That complete defeats the point! You'd be too late!

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I know what hedging is, but selling options is the better way to do it since you could be collecting premium.

1. People can write a(n) "lotto/AU" options, and make some small amount of income.

2. ^VIX (TVIX, VXX and variants) are freaking measurement of fear. People get confused with bear indexes. It maybe proportional, but not the same. I've seen VIX rising on a bullish days.
It is like calling Linear Algebra same sh1t as College/Business Algebra.

3. I am sure F1venom knows what hedging and property of it is. He is an investor.

Hedging is basically a "damping" (phys term) or scalar multiplication (in complex variables)of an function. In this case, it is for portfolio. I try not to use econ/fnce terms (although I studied it), because tons of wanna be or uneducated CFA w/3 with lack of math skills over used the terms.

EX
-I bought a stupid house, because I am going to hedge against rising rent.
-I bought a Au, Pt, and Ag, because I want to hedge against the worthless falling currency (of your choice).
-I bought/sold PUT/CALL, because I want to hedge against falling/rising.


4. IF you buy a TVIX, you are basically you are BETTING on the volatility and fear of ^GSPC risk multiple of 2x beta.
True hedging against S&P500 index [fund] would be sh1t like SH, SDS,SPXS.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

So take me through you hedging a position.

I will expand upon my previous example of hedging a portfolio.

In this portfolio we want to hedge against market/systematic risk. That is risk of overall markets selling off (i.e. not company specific like poor earnings being released). In this example we want to be relatively market neutral for a short period of time because we think there might be an event or catalyst that will cause the market to sell off in the next few days (like a declaration of war or some shock to the system). Let's say our portfolio is made up 20 different stocks across multiple industries. Now we could put a temporary hedge on by using SPY puts or even single stock options, but I think it'd be better to diversify AND hedge at the same time. As I mentioned before volatility is mean reverting. It has been so low for so long that the chance of a sharp spike in volatility is greater. We could use TVIX, UVXY, etc etc. So for this example let's say we buy some TVIX. Without writing an essay, let's just assume that it does in fact give you a 2x directional result (it actually doesn't for multiple reasons).

So now we have a portfolio that is hedged due to our perception that there will be increased volatility in the very near future. Let's fast forward a few days. Let's say the Fed announced that they will immediately stop QE and will raise rates. Granted this is a bit extreme, but it helps explain it easier. Markets begin to sell off. Our 20 stocks are falling, but our TVIX position is flying. Our 20 stocks may lose a massive amount, but it is offset by our leveraged position in TVIX.

Now let's go back and say nothing happens and our assumption was incorrect. We close out our TVIX position and gladly eat the loss. We bought a short term insurance policy against volatility and thankfully we didn't have to use it. The same could be said if the market flew higher (albeit we'd have to eat a bigger loss) but the rise in our 20 stocks helps offset our losing TVIX position.

Now I made some assumptions to help prove the point, but this is essentially how someone who is buying TVIX right now may be thinking. This is also really for people who actively monitor/trade. The average investor has no business playing with leveraged ETPs.

[nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

1. People can write a(n) "lotto/AU" options, and make some small amount of income.

2. ^VIX (TVIX, VXX and variants) are freaking measurement of fear. People get confused with bear indexes. It maybe proportional, but not the same. I've seen VIX rising on a bullish days.
It is like calling Linear Algebra same sh1t as College/Business Algebra.

3. I am sure F1venom knows what hedging and property of it is. He is an investor.

Hedging is basically a "damping" (phys term) or scalar multiplication (in complex variables)of an function. In this case, it is for portfolio. I try not to use econ/fnce terms (although I studied it), because tons of wanna be or uneducated CFA w/3 with lack of math skills over used the terms.

EX
-I bought a stupid house, because I am going to hedge against rising rent.
-I bought a Au, Pt, and Ag, because I want to hedge against the worthless falling currency (of your choice).
-I bought/sold PUT/CALL, because I want to hedge against falling/rising.


4. IF you buy a TVIX, you are basically you are BETTING on the volatility and fear of ^GSPC risk multiple of 2x beta.
True hedging against S&P500 index [fund] would be sh1t like SH, SDS,SPXS.

In English, please?

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by nnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn

In English, please?

I think I used the financial terms, financial slangs, physics terms which used in freaking Highschool.
I will do my best to explain stuff like I am a Middle school teacher teaching kids.

[NemesisX]

http://money.cnn.com/2014/07/10/tech...&iid=obnetwork

Thoughts on Alcatel-Lucent (ALU)?

[MrPrena]

TWITTER UP\
After Hours : 51.20 Up 12.61 (32.68%) 4:36PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

Thanks to Mact, I learned a bit about volume and price. Using that knowledge, it seems to me that TWTR is a good buy at these levels. I won't enter long until it breaks above and holds $42, but on a 4-hour time frame it looks great for the $60s. There is also positive divergence with respect to MACD and price.

Twtr up over 33% in AHT. Damn it's nuts.

[MrPrena]

I am not a momentum trader who specificity see TA which favors momentum. I will be selling all my TWTR position tomorrow.

[E90Alex]

Guys, thoughts on trading GPRO earnings this thursday?

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by E90Alex

Guys, thoughts on trading GPRO earnings this thursday?

GPRO already having an earnings? wow.

I am off on earnings estimate. Numbers I predicted fairly correct by infusing # into the balance/income, but I think investors are getting less greedy. I am predicting earnings # right, but direction of price wrong.

[E90Alex]

Ah im torn between buying GPRO before earnings or after on a dip.

Not 100% confident in their earnings release

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by E90Alex

Ah im torn between buying GPRO before earnings or after on a dip.

Not 100% confident in their earnings release

Every earnings season, I have a same problem. Seems like most of momentum stocks are having a good earnings. Panera Bread gain is a surprise on a bad earnings.

If you really don't want to miss an opportunity , maybe buy 100sr or less?

[E90Alex]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

Every earnings season, I have a same problem. Seems like most of momentum stocks are having a good earnings. Panera Bread gain is a surprise on a bad earnings.

If you really don't want to miss an opportunity , maybe buy 100sr or less?

Hmm, yeah thinking about adding about half of my intended position and if it drops adding more into that dip.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by E90Alex

Hmm, yeah thinking about adding about half of my intended position and if it drops adding more into that dip.

I am watching GPRO after some crazy IPO run.
Did GPRO say they will diversify their business pipeline beyond selling camera?
I would love to know. If they continue to only sell camera and supplemental services, I don't think I would be interested.


I bought some (Very little srs of) Pandora today. I don't even listen to music on the phone.
(Heck, I dont even Tweet, and had Twitter for 2mo).
I think 27.50 would be an decent target price to exit WITHOUT any good/bad news.

I still couldn't pull the trigger on AMD, but I will most likely to buy some AMD within 3-5days.

El Pollo Loco is another one I am interested in. El Pollo Loco was one of my favorite chicken place in S.CA. I haven't had El Pollo Loco since 2004.

[E90Alex]

Originally Posted by MrPrena

I am watching GPRO after some crazy IPO run.
Did GPRO say they will diversify their business pipeline beyond selling camera?
I would love to know. If they continue to only sell camera and supplemental services, I don't think I would be interested.


I bought some (Very little srs of) Pandora today. I don't even listen to music on the phone.
(Heck, I dont even Tweet, and had Twitter for 2mo).
I think 27.50 would be an decent target price to exit WITHOUT any good/bad news.

I still couldn't pull the trigger on AMD, but I will most likely to buy some AMD within 3-5days.

El Pollo Loco is another one I am interested in. El Pollo Loco was one of my favorite chicken place in S.CA. I haven't had El Pollo Loco since 2004.

Based on what I have read, GPRO is being considered (unofficially?) as a media company by certain analysts. I do think that they plan to expand their business in a way that will make them more than just a hardware/camera company.

Also, it would be interesting to see how GPRO's publicity and growth will affect AMBA which has a relationship with them.

[E90Alex]

I just really do not want to miss out on the potential upside of GPRO. Growth seems pretty good and they are getting alot more publicity (also sponsoring alot of athletes.)

[F1Venom]

I still can't get over not being in TWTR right now when its setup was perfect.

[MrPrena]

Originally Posted by F1Venom

I still can't get over not being in TWTR right now when its setup was perfect.

How about Pandora?
I don't think it will move higher than the prem of options + out of money, but I think it will pop to quick 27.50ish. I grabbed some shares today.

[r0wr]

This thread is all speculation.. where's the TA..