Stock market tips and experiences

[rallysport]

I took up a small short position yesterday at 1:59pm
Sold off a bit early today, but still happy with my gains.

I have no idea whats next so im sitting 100% in cash for now

[F1Venom]

I doubt we've topped out yet. We'll get another run up to surpass the ATH's by EOY.

[PSUSMU]

Well I'm getting fucked on ACAS.

[mact3333]

is mom and pop scared yet???....hmmm.

[mact3333]

many months ago I said this bull will end when the Fed's end QE...the first step in the process has just started...more likely than not, we will still make new highs because mom and pop have to be fully on board before the "people in the know" pull the plug to set off a real bear.

We should see new highs with waning momentum indicators showing this bull is tired.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by Inspired

We kind of tested the highs. But that 20MA was a bitch to get through on the SPY.

My projection for the SPY...

Posted this last Wednesday that the market would sell off. A bit early with my prediction but it was right. We lost 650 points on the SPX in 2 days. Buckle up for a even larger sell off. My guess is the market will rebound tomorrow for a bull trap

[Vanity]

Broke 1640 and bam, I said watch out. ~-600 points down in two days. Broke 1605 today and I shorted till support at 1585. Bounce should cap at 1605-1610. Resuming the move down thereafter to 1550-1560. If we break 1550, bon voyage.

Posted this May 20th when SPX hit an intraday high of 1672.

Originally Posted by Vanity

$SPX will pullback 10-15% and go sub 1500 before September.

#timestamp.

Who made money on this call so far? Halfway there and already were getting +30% days on UVXY.

[amanda hor$t]

too volatile for my dollars. but i love this game, watching for now.

one day when twitter and forums are obsolete and half of you guys are dead, i'll still be trading.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by R Grubba Balls

too volatile for my dollars. but i love this game, watching for now.

one day when twitter and forums are obsolete and half of you guys are dead, i'll still be trading.

Love you too.

[Inspired]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Broke 1640 and bam, I said watch out. ~-600 points down in two days. Broke 1605 today and I shorted till support at 1585. Bounce should cap at 1605-1610. Resuming the move down thereafter to 1550-1560. If we break 1550, bon voyage.

Posted this May 20th when SPX hit an intraday high of 1672.



Who made money on this call so far? Halfway there and already were getting +30% days on UVXY.

Did you get in UVXY? If we don't bounce soon, this is going sky high...

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Did you get in UVXY? If we don't bounce soon, this is going sky high...

not for the full 30%. Wish my portfolio could profit from that! But I bought in at $78.78 during that run up.

[AndreyT]

Originally Posted by Inspired

Posted this last Wednesday that the market would sell off. A bit early with my prediction but it was right.

Predictions like that are only valuable when you are one of the few making them. In this case, everyone knew that the marked would sell off, no need for any predictions. I'm not the fan of the TV clowns like Cramer, but he put it correctly this time: it was the amateur hour. Sell before Fed, buy again after the drop. That is, of course, if you care to capitalize on such fluctuations. I, for one, don't, so I just sat through it.

And no, it is too early for the reversal. Short term, the market will continue to go up.

[lukasbmw]

Subscribed.

[mact3333]

1. Guys, I tried to tell everyone on this thread 2 years ago we were making new all time highs..mot many believed me, after all , this is a BMW MB....my target was 1650-1750!...we have already hit it...we are close to the top now...trying to catch that last 10% is probably stupid...I will no longer go 100% all in long anymore.

I am very very close to pulling my kids college money out of equities.

2. I gave the time frame for the "top" at 75% 1st quarter of 2014 and 25% last quarter of this year...this still stands...mom and pop will get their face ripped off when the bear starts yet again.

3. Momo's like AAPL entering a bear awhile ago shows what is coming ahead for most stocks...when the bear happens, 95% of stocks will follow cause fundamentals dont mean jack and real bears alter fundamentals of every company...the impetus for real bears will cause a recession not the other way around.

4. Gold and Silver tipping its hand early...commodities have lead this bull and it is the first to crack...I started unloading my physical gold 6 months ago and the last went out the door few months ago...thats when I stopped trading etf's like AGQ also...you have to watch the price of bonds and the US dollar.

5. I also stated many months ago Bernanke the clown will alter this bull...when he hints that QE will end the markets will tip its hand at whats to come...when he actually does it the real bear will start...this has been an artificial money expansion bull the entire time.

Money supply expanded for the elites, not for the common man and middle class....the banks got it and you and I didn't...you try to get a loan recently?...hmmm.....

6. when the bear starts and markets head down 10%, the usual clowns will say its healthy to have a 10% decline...when its down 20%, same clowns will say "omg should I sell" and probably do so(the pros that is)???...when its down more, mom and pop will panic sell and when your brain says the zombie apocalypse is here, you will need to man up and buy...timing will be tricky once again, but know one thing, when you are the most scared with pee running down your leg, thats when it time to buy...always works like this.



Watch for headlines on cover of newspapers and magazines saying we are in the abyss and that its time for panic...this is a good sign we are close to a bottom and the bear is over.

[mact3333]

Target 1520-1525 SPX

[F1Venom]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Target 1520-1525 SPX

Man it's crazy. On a weekly regression channel I've got support at 1480.

[F1Venom]

What are your thoughts on AAPL and GOOG? GOOG looks bearish and AAPL is weird. AAPL could retest the $385 lows before bouncing on iPhone news.

[mact3333]

I don't look at GOOG....AAPL obviously not looking great but when this IT general mkt sell off ends, aapl will declare itself...still think it will do well after later this year when they release all their new products...think iPhone 5s will do well but not so sure about the wristwatch and tv


Rowr, was that you that held firm on that aapl short?.....well done.

I sold all my long positions few wks ago and will only buy modest long positions when IT sell off over, but no need to get all in long, cause some devastation will be coming within 6 months.

Popcorn is hand.

[Erhan]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I don't look at GOOG....AAPL obviously not looking great but when this IT general mkt sell off ends, aapl will declare itself...still think it will do well after later this year when they release all their new products...think iPhone 5s will do well but not so sure about the wristwatch and tv

I think Apple has to do a very innovative, different, cool, etc iPhone 5s/6. 4s and 5 were not good enough. If they disappoint with 5s/6, then I think they'll be in big trouble.

In a way, the iWatch doesn't need to be very profitable but it is important to show that Apple can still innovate. But then, if it is such an innovative product, it will have an effect on the market and hence it will sell a lot. Apple needs to give us the "next big thing".

iTV might be a big thing if it is done right. Easy to use flexible interface (with SIRI?) and ability to watch TV without cable might do the trick.

[Vanity]

May have just found our bottom at 1560 SPX.

[RandomHero]

Originally Posted by Erhan

I think Apple has to do a very innovative, different, cool, etc iPhone 5s/6. 4s and 5 were not good enough. If they disappoint with 5s/6, then I think they'll be in big trouble.

In a way, the iWatch doesn't need to be very profitable but it is important to show that Apple can still innovate. But then, if it is such an innovative product, it will have an effect on the market and hence it will sell a lot. Apple needs to give us the "next big thing".

iTV might be a big thing if it is done right. Easy to use flexible interface (with SIRI?) and ability to watch TV without cable might do the trick.

Apple’s run as a growth company has been over for at least a year now. They’ve never been innovative, they’ve simply taken current technology and improved upon it. Supplement that with their once phenomenal marketing and you had a real winner from around 2003-2012. Now that Android-based devices have come so far, there is less for Apple to improve upon.

In short, they need to work on MAINTAINING their market share and improving their profitability. I think it’s out of the question at this point to ask that they improve upon their market share.

For everyone that thinks I’m crazy: The iPhone was not the first smart phone, Siri is a technology that has been around since the early/mid 90s, Mp3 players were around long before the iPod, and “tablet” style PCs were available long before the introduction of the iPad. I could go on and on, but show me where/why I’m wrong on that.

Apple had a good run on top, but it’s over and it’s been over for several months now. They need to up their dividend over 4% and focus on becoming an income/dividend player.

Side note: I contribute Zoey Deschanel’s horrible dancing to part of the reason why Apple experienced a steady slide from $700+ down to $400.

[MetsFan]

Subscribing to do some research.

I'm new to all this stuff and I was going to put some money into VIFNX a month ago, but glad I didn't. It seems like the market is epected to keep falling, so maybe I'll stick with cash or ladder cd's or something.