Tesla - no thanks!

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

There was a thread on E90Post started a few years ago that basically asked the question "Will Tesla be Around in 10 Years?". It really was a good thread, but the Mods took it down. My contention when I contributed to the Thread was basically the cost of the continuously developing new models. Tesla has to be admired for jumping into the automotive arena with a new unconventional architecture that basically required a significant development of non-existing supply chain or transition of low-rate supply chain resources in to high-rate manufacturers. Tesla has definitely helped the major manufacturers get into the EV product arena.

But the automobile game is tough. It has short product cycles relative to the cost of design and production, where the customer base expects a redesign every 7 years or so. That is where the cost is, product redesign; it's why VW builds 15 models off one platform (MQB). Tesla's current products are stale. The Model S has been around for over 10 years, looks the same, the price has increased faster than inflation, and most people don't want a 2.5-second 60 MPH car priced at $150K. The Model 3 is 5 years old now, is ugly (has been from the start), as are the X and Y, and the price point is a bit steep. The auto buyer is finicky. Perhaps Tesla's stock price, while grossly overvalued, is just a reflection of a customer base that wants some product refresh. It's still young company.

Batteries are expensive to produce. I don't believe there is a low-cost high-energy density solution, and that's where I see the market for them stalling.

And they have proven to be slow/unreliable at bringing new product to market, which hurts confidence (both investor and customer). Other brands are slow on some products, but they don't over promise to nearly the degree Tesla does. The Roadster was revealed in 2017, still not here. Not even close it seems. The Plaid+? they changed their mind . The Semi is just starting maybe be released (?), 5 years after prototype. Cyber bruck, revealed the same time and still at least a year out, and that's "Tesla years" which really means much much more. The plaid was a disaster, they didn't make any model S cars for almost 1-1/2 model years. The X was even worse, almost 2 years of production lost, and it still looks the same. If they had gotten rid of those stupid rear doors, I'd probably have one by now.

Their only recent success story is the Y, and that surely saved the company, but it too will age faster than they can manage. Competition will eat their lunch on that.

I wish them luck, they have helped move the EV evolution forward.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

There was a thread on E90Post started a few years ago that basically asked the question "Will Tesla be Around in 10 Years?". It really was a good thread, but the Mods took it down. My contention when I contributed to the Thread was basically the cost of the continuously developing new models. Tesla has to be admired for jumping into the automotive arena with a new unconventional architecture that basically required a significant development of non-existing supply chain or transition of low-rate supply chain resources in to high-rate manufacturers. Tesla has definitely helped the major manufacturers get into the EV product arena.

But the automobile game is tough. It has short product cycles relative to the cost of design and production, where the customer base expects a redesign every 7 years or so. That is where the cost is, product redesign; it's why VW builds 15 models off one platform (MQB). Tesla's current products are stale. The Model S has been around for over 10 years, looks the same, the price has increased faster than inflation, and most people don't want a 2.5-second 60 MPH car priced at $150K. The Model 3 is 5 years old now, is ugly (has been from the start), as are the X and Y, and the price point is a bit steep. The auto buyer is finicky. Perhaps Tesla's stock price, while grossly overvalued, is just a reflection of a customer base that wants some product refresh. It's still young company.

Batteries are expensive to produce. I don't believe there is a low-cost high-energy density solution, and that's where I see the market for them stalling.

I would argue that in a niche, you don't really need a major re-design every 7 years...but if you are in a niche just because the others haven't caught up to you...you're just in a temporary situation that can't be sustained, hardly a real niche. Lots of businesses tend to think they are in a niche when they are not and it's just a matter of time before someone else comes along and does what they do better, faster, cheaper, etc. It's obvious that Tesla is not in a niche. They could be a player in the future, but that's going to take development and innovation beyond where they are today. The other manufacturers have incredible manufacturing and engineering capability that is being leveraged as we speak.

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

There was a thread on E90Post started a few years ago that basically asked the question "Will Tesla be Around in 10 Years?". The Model 3 is 5 years old now, is ugly (has been from the start), as are the X and Y, and the price point is a bit steep. The auto buyer is finicky. Perhaps Tesla's stock price, while grossly overvalued, is just a reflection of a customer base that wants some product refresh.

That thread was great GrussGott was a good contributor. Where is he. (Probably rolling in cash enjoying gains from having bought tesla stock then).

[G MONEY]

Originally Posted by Onesie

I’m disagreeing Tesla is in trouble.
I’m disagreeing Tesla’s stock is down due to a “single handed” CEO…

I’m showing most, if not all, stocks are down. Proves nothing, has no room in the conversation, is related to nothing…

This!!!!!

[TheMaxXHD]

Originally Posted by Onesie

I’m disagreeing Tesla is in trouble.
I’m disagreeing Tesla’s stock is down due to a “single handed” CEO…

I’m showing most, if not all, stocks are down. Proves nothing, has no room in the conversation, is related to nothing…

Tesla’s stock has always had a very high P/E ratio, which is usually a prime indication the price of the stock is overweight compared to the actual earnings of the company. This is in comparison to Ford, GM, who has pretty low P/E ratios, which indicates the price may be a bit too low compared to their overall earnings.

P/E ratio isn’t everything either, many things influence price, and more often then not, it is market/sector performance as a whole, not an individual company performance, that ultimately weighs the most on a large company stock like Tesla, Ford, or GM. It makes sense they would all be down, they are all equally impacted by rising interest rates.

That said, I still agree with your assessment. If we want to talk about the health of the company or really any company, look at it’s finances, not the stock prices. Stock prices tend to be overreactive to company performance both on the negative and positive side until it’s already obvious if the company is in a boom or bust situation.

On the subject of Twitter, Tesla is acutely exposed to Twitter’s performance (which largely effects Musk’s debt situation). He has been selling more and more Tesla stock, effectively decreasing Tesla’s equity on their balance sheet by several billion at a time. There is also talk that Musk may use Tesla margin loans to help pay down the debt.

Overall, it isn’t a huge concern now, BUT, if Twitter were to really start failing (which is possible if they continue to lose advertising and/or get sued, especially by the EU), Musk would hurt, and Musk’s best way to get out of the debt would be in some way to collateralize or pay with more Tesla equity/loans, which hurts Tesla’s balance sheet. This affects the company’s ability to be as flexible as possible and to continue to grow.

[Housekeeping]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

Me too. What Tesla has done so far is amazing, but it takes serious cash to take on Toyota, GM, Ford, and Stellantis and beat them at THIER game. I looked very hard at the Model 3, but the thing is just too effing ugly and the dash is a joke. The ones I have been in are of low build quality, noisy at speed, and cheap feeling. I even looked at a few companies that were supposedly coming out with a new front facia (not sure they ever did). I was driving 160 miles a day back then and the winter range was as issue for me. My employer had no on-campus charging. Pre-covid I ran all the numbers for them to install 3 EV chargers, but they wouldn't invest. I tried to convince the company that if they wanted to attract young engineers (they stated as such) they had to install EV infrastructure. Worst the CEO drove a Model S (based in Florida). LOL.

Model S after 2021 model is super nice inside. Not rattles, tech galore and drive beautifully. I prefer it over my M5 actually. Fast as snot too.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by Onesie

IÂ’m disagreeing Tesla is in trouble.
I’m disagreeing Tesla’s stock is down due to a “single handed” CEO…

IÂ’m showing most, if not all, stocks are down. Proves nothing, has no room in the conversation, is related to nothingÂ…

Originally Posted by TheMaxXHD

TeslaÂ’s stock has always had a very high P/E ratio, which is usually a prime indication the price of the stock is overweight compared to the actual earnings of the company. This is in comparison to Ford, GM, who has pretty low P/E ratios, which indicates the price may be a bit too low compared to their overall earnings.

P/E ratio isnÂ’t everything either, many things influence price, and more often then not, it is market/sector performance as a whole, not an individual company performance, that ultimately weighs the most on a large company stock like Tesla, Ford, or GM. It makes sense they would all be down, they are all equally impacted by rising interest rates.

That said, I still agree with your assessment. If we want to talk about the health of the company or really any company, look at itÂ’s finances, not the stock prices. Stock prices tend to be overreactive to company performance both on the negative and positive side until itÂ’s already obvious if the company is in a boom or bust situation.

On the subject of Twitter, Tesla is acutely exposed to TwitterÂ’s performance (which largely effects MuskÂ’s debt situation). He has been selling more and more Tesla stock, effectively decreasing TeslaÂ’s equity on their balance sheet by several billion at a time. There is also talk that Musk may use Tesla margin loans to help pay down the debt.

Overall, it isnÂ’t a huge concern now, BUT, if Twitter were to really start failing (which is possible if they continue to lose advertising and/or get sued, especially by the EU), Musk would hurt, and MuskÂ’s best way to get out of the debt would be in some way to collateralize or pay with more Tesla equity/loans, which hurts TeslaÂ’s balance sheet. This affects the companyÂ’s ability to be as flexible as possible and to continue to grow.

A lot of the "stock value" is due to the Elon factor, not the company balance sheet, or profits, intellectual property, or assets, etc. Mostly smoke and hope. It's how the market works, but that makes it more volatile. GM and other brands have their stock values correlated to their financials, assets, and the general market they operate in.

If you go back to post #310, this is where the "Elon factor" entered the conversation, and is what I'm replying to. GM and other brands have all fallen, Tesla has fallen 35% more than GM this year, and 50% more than many other segment leaders, despite being a leader in their own sector.

If it's not the financials, or their market position (they seem to be a leader), it might just be something else, like the Elon factor. That they also have inventory stacking up and the market has soured on high end EV's seems to be double-trouble for them. The elon factor has being a liability lately, and the market is putting a lot of pressure on the bottom line. Investors seem to have noticed this.

Many Auto manufacturers are facing difficult financials, but most don't have a sketchy CEO situation and a bunch of lawsuits going on at the same time. Those that don't will likely recover better/sooner.

[G80indy]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/...imit-ourselves

[M3WC]

Tesla isn't going anywhere. Their profit margin per vehicle is unmatched and only going to get better.

For example here is Q3 2022 numbers vs Toyota(ice/phev/bev)

Toyota:
* 2,625 thousand sales
* $3,342 billion overall net profit
* $1,273 profit per vehicle

Tesla:
* 344 thousand sales
* $3,292 billion overall net profit
* $9,754 profit per vehicle

That's a near 9x profit per vehicle for Tesla.

It gets even worse when you start singling out just the competitor's EVs. Ford is struggling to make their EVs return a profit. Ford has raised the price of Lightning three times, it is now $16,000 or 40% more than original launch price. They are raising prices in such large chunks because they aren't making sh*t on their EVs. ICE sales are driving their profits and that goes for all legacy automakers. They could not survive on EV sales alone right now. Ford CFO stated in June they were now net negtive on MachE production due to inflation. MachE cost $25k more to produce than a Ford Edge, yet the two vehicles msrp are less than $10k apart.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Tesla isn't going anywhere. Their profit margin per vehicle is unmatched and only going to get better.

For example here is Q3 2022 numbers vs Toyota(ice/phev/bev)

Toyota:
* 2,625 thousand sales
* $3,342 billion overall net profit
* $1,273 profit per vehicle

Tesla:
* 344 thousand sales
* $3,292 billion overall net profit
* $9,754 profit per vehicle

That's a near 9x profit per vehicle for Tesla.

It gets even worse when you start singling out just the competitor's EVs. Ford is struggling to make their EVs return a profit. Ford has raised the price of Lightning three times, it is now $16,000 or 40% more than original launch price. They are raising prices in such large chunks because they aren't making sh*t on their EVs. ICE sales are driving their profits and that goes for all legacy automakers. They could not survive on EV sales alone right now. Ford CFO stated in June they were now net negtive on MachE production due to inflation. MachE cost $25k more to produce than a Ford Edge, yet the two vehicles msrp are less than $10k apart.

10% of their profits come directly from Regulatory credits, AKA tax payer money. Feels so good to know my taxes are being used to enrich a profitable business. Redistribution of wealth, aint it great ?

[KRS_SN]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Tesla isn't going anywhere. Their profit margin per vehicle is unmatched and only going to get better.

For example here is Q3 2022 numbers vs Toyota(ice/phev/bev)

Toyota:
* 2,625 thousand sales
* $3,342 billion overall net profit
* $1,273 profit per vehicle

Tesla:
* 344 thousand sales
* $3,292 billion overall net profit
* $9,754 profit per vehicle

That's a near 9x profit per vehicle for Tesla.

It gets even worse when you start singling out just the competitor's EVs. Ford is struggling to make their EVs return a profit. Ford has raised the price of Lightning three times, it is now $16,000 or 40% more than original launch price. They are raising prices in such large chunks because they aren't making sh*t on their EVs. ICE sales are driving their profits and that goes for all legacy automakers. They could not survive on EV sales alone right now. Ford CFO stated in June they were now net negtive on MachE production due to inflation. MachE cost $25k more to produce than a Ford Edge, yet the two vehicles msrp are less than $10k apart.

Horribly stripper interior and an exterior fit and finish that's nothing to write home about for the price and laughable customization than 4 or 5 drab colours etc...
of course they'll make more profit per unit due to cost cutting till customers realize it for what they are
a prestige item when none around (those days are gone) and an ultra generic item when everyone getting one and are driven as taxis etc.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Yes, totally overvalued. are they really worth 10 times GM? I don't think so. There is also this :

Elon Musk disclosed another $3.6 billion in stock sales on Wednesday, taking his total near $40 billion this year


All used cars are falling finally, and for a while Tesla was immune to that. Not any more. I looked at the cars.com listing a few days ago and there were a lot of them that have been on the lots for months and have had 15% price reductions, and are still for sale. On top of that, the new ones are stacking up at tesla stores. I looked earlier this week at my local "Existing Inventory" and it was up ~1000% over recent historical normal levels. Even the top selling models/versions are stacking up. I looked again today and now inventory is up 1200%, in less than a week.

This will get much worse for them before it gets better.

Stock was ~$150 when I wrote this ^ 9 days ago, now down to ~$125. Down ~19% in just the last week and .~69% year to date.

Google stock price check:
124.89 USD
-28.87 (-18.76%)past 5 days
-274.89 (-68.74%)year to date

I went to their website to check stock because I read they are now offering $7500 off 3's and Y's, plus 10K supercharge miles. Confirmed they are.

Looked at the S inventory, still extremely bloated. I went at the main webpage to build my own S so I could deduce the discounts now offered on those compared to normal prices, "build your own" now links directly to the existing inventory. The site won't even let you build your own anymore, only option is to buy one on the lot I know they have an end of year push they always do, but this year they must also have an inventory problem. There are currently 50 S's within 200 miles of me, normal inventory level is 2-4. Prices appear highly discounted, but since I can't look at the normal prices anymore, I can't be sure how much.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Stock was ~$150 when I wrote this ^ 9 days ago, now down to ~$125. Down ~19% in just the last week and .~69% year to date.

Google stock price check:
124.89 USD
-28.87 (-18.76%)past 5 days
-274.89 (-68.74%)year to date

The entire auto sector has been hammered year to date. Rivian down 81%, Lucid down 84%, Tesla down 68%, Ford down 49%, GM down 45%, Stellantis down 30%, Toyota down 27%. This week in particular it seems reality has set in for traders, all auto sector stocks are down quite a bit. Carmax missed their earnings estimates bigly. 2023 is looking like it could be even worse for the new and used car market.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

I went to their website to check stock because I read they are now offering $7500 off 3's and Y's, plus 10K supercharge miles. Confirmed they are.

It is because the Treasury delayed the minerals sourcing requirements from IRA until March. Opening a 2 month window starting Jan 1st where all NA built EVs will get $7500 credit, including Tesla and GM products. So, people started putting holds on their EV purchases, including other brands. Tesla likes to end the year with big numbers. Inventory of base M3's disappeared overnight, so it is working.

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Looked at the S inventory, still extremely bloated. I went at the main webpage to build my own S so I could deduce the discounts now offered on those compared to normal prices, "build your own" now links directly to the existing inventory. The site won't even let you build your own anymore, only option is to buy one on the lot I know they have an end of year push they always do, but this year they must also have an inventory problem. There are currently 50 S's within 200 miles of me, normal inventory level is 2-4. Prices appear highly discounted, but since I can't look at the normal prices anymore, I can't be sure how much.

Yes it will, scroll down click "custom order".

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

The entire auto sector has been hammered year to date. Rivian down 81%, Lucid down 84%, Tesla down 68%, Ford down 49%, GM down 45%, Stellantis down 30%, Toyota down 27%. This week in particular it seems reality has set in for traders, all auto sector stocks are down quite a bit. Carmax missed their earnings estimates bigly. 2023 is looking like it could be even worse for the new and used car market.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksa...h=730f3f973a84

It’s the third-worst day for Tesla stock of 2022, sending the company’s market capitalization to $393 billion, nearly 70% off of its $1.2 trillion mark in January.

They are down $807 billion since January, that's 8/10's of a trillion US dollars of lost value. With that much money, you could probably buy the top 5 other auto manufactures outright based on market cap.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

Yes it will, scroll down click "custom order".

Mine doesn't, tried on 2 different computers.

It is because the Treasury delayed the minerals sourcing requirements from IRA until March. Opening a 2 month window starting Jan 1st where all NA built EVs will get $7500 credit, including Tesla and GM products. So, people started putting holds on their EV purchases, including other brands. Tesla likes to end the year with big numbers. Inventory of base M3's disappeared overnight, so it is working.

If you read trending articles, you find there are a lot of other issues specific to Tesla. I searched using "tesla inventory problems" and sorted for last 24 hours. there are lot of articles. Everything you said is "true", but Tesla has a lot of other "true" issues others are not facing.

The $7500 credit only applies to cars under $55,000, and SUV's under $80,000. That doesn't cover most Teslas, and thus isn't the only reason for their discount.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksa...h=730f3f973a84

It’s the third-worst day for Tesla stock of 2022, sending the company’s market capitalization to $393 billion, nearly 70% off of its $1.2 trillion mark in January.

They are down $807 billion since January, that's 8/10's of a trillion US dollars of lost value. With that much money, you could probably buy the top 5 other auto manufactures outright based on market cap.

Yup that is called math. Tesla's marketcap is multiple times larger than most vehicle brands. So yes when the entire sector has been hammered year to date, their marketcap goes down more in dollar amount. YTD percentage wise they are on the lower end of pure EV manufacturers and upper end compared to legacy automakers.

They still are one of the largest marketcaps in the sector, building vehicles with 9x more profit margin per car than Toyota(including ICE). They can afford to do end of year discount to hit unit sales targets.

The auto sector got annihilated this year and it will be worse next year.

[M3WC]

Originally Posted by chad86tsi

Mine doesn't, tried on 2 different computers.

It is there. Model 3 page is same way, scroll down there is a custom order button. You can then config each version.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

It is there. Model 3 page is same way, scroll down there is a custom order button. You can then config each version.

Just found it, it's a part of the page I don't normally scroll to. Usually the "Buy now" takes you to the "build" page.

There are plaids in there with $11K+ discounts (not a demo, and with no miles).

[M3WC]

I would be more worried about GM over the next few years. They lost 45% of their value YTD, even with record sales prices from ICE this year. Their EV profit is currently net negative as they scale up. It won't be profitable until 2025 at the earliest according to CFO. Now the new car market has cooled significantly and almost their entire ICE portfolio is on sale at dealerships across the nation. Profits will be heading downward for the foreseeable future. They are struggling to scale up EV production. Already declared a 6 month delay on their goal to have 400k EV units produced by first half of 2024. Mary has GM's entire future banked on an all EV portfolio by 2035, she better have her timelines correct. But she won't ever get bad press, as she is media and current admin golden child of vehicle industry. Polar opposite of Akio Toyoda who has a more sensible plan to transition which includes combination of EV/PHEV/ICE/Hydrogen, but he gets negative press constantly for not not toeing the line and following the herd.

[chad86tsi]

Originally Posted by M3WC

I would be more worried about GM over the next few years. They lost 45% of their value YTD, even with record sales prices from ICE this year. Their EV profit is currently net negative as they scale up. It won't be profitable until 2025 at the earliest according to CFO. Now the new car market has cooled significantly and almost their entire ICE portfolio is on sale at dealerships across the nation. Profits will be heading downward for the foreseeable future. They are struggling to scale up EV production. Already declared a 6 month delay on their goal to have 400k EV units produced by first half of 2024. Mary has GM's entire future banked on an all EV portfolio by 2035, she better have her timelines correct. But she won't ever get bad press, as she is media and current admin golden child of vehicle industry. Polar opposite of Akio Toyoda who has a more sensible plan to transition which includes combination of EV/PHEV/ICE/Hydrogen, but he gets negative press constantly for not not toeing the line and following the herd.

Yes, scaling costs money. It took Tesla 17 years to become profitable.

Last year Tesla made more money selling bitcoin and carbon credits than it did cars. (FYI, carbon credits are given to them for free, paid for by us tax payers).

https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-...oin-than-cars/

[GrussGott]

Originally Posted by Efthreeoh

I miss 'ole "follow-the-money" GrussGott...

I'm here! Have been doing some "revenge travel"

Well, so Efthreeoh, as of Jan 2022 I became a $TSLA bear. Don't believe me? It's all on Seeking Alpha, but as of last Jan it was becoming obvious that the $TSLA risks were stacking up and I advised those few who care about my 2 cents to sell out.

Those who did send me weekly emails of thanks

anyway, what's up?

Every $TSLA perma-bear just LOVING the Musk disaster!?! I know I am!

PS: $F has outperformed $TSLA YTD!! Who'da guessed that??

[GrussGott]

f

Originally Posted by KRS_SN

That thread was great GrussGott was a good contributor. Where is he. (Probably rolling in cash enjoying gains from having bought tesla stock then).

Ha, i was never a $TSLA owner other than via index. I don't invest in individual stocks, but I advise a few who enjoy it and, sadly, THEY'RE the ones rolling in $TSLA $$$ having sold at the peak last Jan-Mar, not me!

Anyway, want my new autos recommendation? Who doesn't??

$GM