Stock market tips and experiences

[immiketoo]

Lindt Truffles!

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by mact3333

Sorry if my rant felt directed towards you...it wasnt...my only point was to show that trading mkts is very hard and there is no easy way...will PM you with some hints.

Getting back to mkts, we should see a gap up tomorrow followed slight pullback...should see normal range day tomorrow without a trend day up like today....thats the theory anyway.

Mkts should probe 1260 level within the next week though imho.

Also, with us reaching the 1260-1265 levels around Christmas, lots of short positions are going to be closed down because of taxes

Might see that golden 1330-1340 late dec and early jan. or we mig stagnate into the new year. We will have to see. What have you other lurkers on this thread been betting on?

[Gregxi]

Originally Posted by SixBanger

Thanks guys lol, and it's for me.

You need ideas for your own stocking?

[SixBanger]

Originally Posted by Gregxi

You need ideas for your own stocking?

Someone in my family wants to give me one and I have no ideas.

[mact3333]

I like adding to long side here...odds favor we see 1250-60 soon...we are consolidating yest's gains...normal range day today imho.

[infinitekidM2C]

Originally Posted by SixBanger

Thanks guys lol, and it's for me.

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by mact3333

I like adding to long side here...odds favor we see 1250-60 soon...we are consolidating yest's gains...normal range day today imho.

Got that bounce at 1225(ES down 10-12 at the time) I was expecting...added there.

[mact3333]

very close to meeting 1st objective near 1250-60...we should see slight pullback soon...but when bears start getting excited again mkts will make then cover when we take out 1260 to begin the last last and final push up.

JMHO of course....

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Why have there been so many arguments on this thread, and why aren't we arguing about the markets. Hmmm, anyways, it looks like it was a bear trap after all and the 1265 theory is viable. As for buying TVIX, I'd wait a bit longer, wait until late dec or early January when the VIX contracts are trading at normal 30 day intervals again and not over a holiday season. It's futures contracts are already ~40-60% percent higher than its current valuation. This would be for January and the 2012 quarters 1-2.

Until then, just let TVIX get cheap.

Volatility should pick up again when VIX sees 15 and TVIX sees 20...TVIX is very volatile and doesnt correlate completely with VIX...like all leveraged ETF's, should be traded on ST and maybe IT basis only.

In time, people will see all triple leveraged etf's as the devil's work......plot out the triple long/short financial etf FAS and FAZ and what do you see???...FAZ went from 5000 to mid 30's...FAS went from 200 to mid 50's in 3 yrs...kinda odd huh???....time decay is the winner.

Keep up the posts guys.

Thanks for the information...

[mact3333]

the last push up will be from shorts that have to cover when 1260-5 breaks upwards...the "obvious" line is here...but lets be clear, 2012 is gonna be ugly...somewhere between 1290-1350 is gonna be the top imho.

Let others talk about finances, earnings, and other bs, but the money is made on price action which is strictly dependent on supply-demand...you also have to watch volume and cycle studies.

The ones who have followed this thread for many months now know my track record...while retail traders have been bearish for past few months, I have always maintained we were going to 1300ish...I only hedged my longs with shorts when I knew we were going to have ST pullbacks.

That is my method anyway...play the IT and LT trends and hedge when you know mkts will work against you on ST basis.

GL in 2012 cause its always harder to make money on short side when compared to long side.

[mact3333]

at 1262 SPX now...although we could certainly see a drop to 1245 level from here on short term basis, one way to trap bears is to have "some news" on sunday to drive up futures above this level and force bears to cover....we shall see.

[ES_TRADER]

major TL from May 1st 2011...NEED TO SEE that tested...this, however is stalling here at the minor TL from Oct /$ES_F that is

[mact3333]

Originally Posted by richpuer

major TL from May 1st 2011...NEED TO SEE that tested...this, however is stalling here at the minor TL from Oct /$ES_F that is

Rich,

Were going higher...but were getting close to the end...were playing for the last scraps here imho...once we take out the suckers(playing the TL you're talking about) line then the IT/LT trend can reverse but only after the majority can get on board the bull train only to have the rug pulled out from under them.

[mact3333]

Closing out all longs now...playing for scraps now...risk is going up on long side...looking for topping signs now...a push into low 1300's would do it...wont be posting much for awhile now...the count down has begun...mkt needs to rise now and get giddy, sentiment factors and % of stocks trading above 50dma will give clues when to short...piling into shorts when time is right a mistake imho, gotta do it slowly as I think the next trend change will be on IT and LT time frame.


Expecting a pullback at SPX 1271.99374643....

[rallysport]

What are your views on bond etf's?
Ive been trying to play the market for the past year. Made some good and bad trades, YTD down about 1%.
I wont have the luxury to watch the markets as often this coming year, so I was thinking about investing in one of vanguards bond etf's with a good paying dividend.
Any input to that idea?

[///1M]

What are the chances that American Airlines stock (AMR) will be worth anything when they emerge from chapter 11?
50% ?
10% ?
1% ?

[mact3333]

Usually its worth nothing as they usually issue new stock when they re-emerge from bankruptcy under different symbol ...sometimes if you get really lucky like I did with Healthsouth many yrs ago when it was trading at 0.10 as people were 99% convinced they were going into bankruptcy with their accounting scandal but they never did, it shot up to 5.00 from 0.10 within a year....but most of the time, if its trading below 1.00 there is a reason and if they truly file for bankruptcy, the stock will eventually be worthless.

Originally Posted by ///1M

What are the chances that American Airlines stock (AMR) will be worth anything when they emerge from chapter 11?
50% ?
10% ?
1% ?

[Vanity]

Welcome back guys! Hope everyone had a nice Christmas vacation. I went on a snowboarding trip into the interior of British Columbia. Feel free to share yours.

Anyways, doesn't look like much has changed from the original theory. Few hiccups here and there. Closer to the mid of the month is when things are going to get ugly though. You have the market probably crashing before Bernanke's January 25th meeting, as that will generate reason to initiate some type of QE3 (speculatively). So far though, this is a pretty good start to the New Year for the markets. Ride em high and cash in, then ride em low and cash in again.

[johanness]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Closer to the mid of the month is when things are going to get ugly though. You have the market probably crashing before Bernanke's January 25th meeting, as that will generate reason to initiate some type of QE3 (speculatively).

Interesting... thanks for the input!

[mact3333]

happy news years!

long metals last week.

buying the selloff today...were going higher...but getting closer to IT top.

delta charts, sentiment charts, cycle work all say it....jmho of course...

[mact3333]

taking profits on metals...expect SPX to selloff perhaps 10 more pts from here and then rally.