Stock market tips and experiences

[persian54]

damn NBG did a 1/5 split

[MEMMEZZ]

So as predicted by Vanity and Mact we had a great surge today. However the last hour of trading was a little shaky but seemed to find pretty decent support at around 1185 and closed up almost 3%. I believe its been a while for bull day to not end with a big sell-off so would you guys consider this a positive note for tomorrow and the rest of the week? I know you both have targets of 1225-1250 before looking to go short but without more positive headlines, I feel like the market would easily erase half or more of today's gains by tomorrow's close. Are you hesitant right now with any negative headlines initiate "Defcon 3" and consider the mini-rally to be very small or leaning towards more confidence throughout the rest of the week (or at least a couple more days)?

[mact3333]

I will be adding to my longs tomorrow...dont see any reason to think we dont rally tomorrow also.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

So as predicted by Vanity and Mact we had a great surge today. However the last hour of trading was a little shaky but seemed to find pretty decent support at around 1185 and closed up almost 3%. I believe its been a while for bull day to not end with a big sell-off so would you guys consider this a positive note for tomorrow and the rest of the week? I know you both have targets of 1225-1250 before looking to go short but without more positive headlines, I feel like the market would easily erase half or more of today's gains by tomorrow's close. Are you hesitant right now with any negative headlines initiate "Defcon 3" and consider the mini-rally to be very small or leaning towards more confidence throughout the rest of the week (or at least a couple more days)?

Market passed the first resistance level predicted at 1185-1190 range and held it at the end of the day. The next resistance would be 1200-1220 and it seems likely we will clear this tomorrow. To add to the comment about the rally at the end of the day, that logged in 100M+ volume. This is by far a return of volume that we have been missing for a while, and I have been waiting for fuel like this for a while. But, the retail investors returning to the markets after today's pop will be the backs you should get out on. The rally will sustain for 1-2 more days, perhaps three, though 1250 - 1275 shouldn't take too long. The ride down will be rather fun! Retail investors will largely be reassured by: 1) Greece bailout tomorrow, 2) EFSF fund being increased 3) some sort of resolution coming out of EU summit Dec 9th.

This would be the exit window to get out before everyone else does. News like this are disregarded very quickly after their publication. Nothing is going to come of this week. But it's an excellent window of opportunity to short the markets and load up.

I believe the shorts, EDZ and TZA, I've been eyeing have lost 14% each, respectively, today. Tomorrow, they'll lose more. And on the way down, we will see a very high upside to these ETFs.

Tuesday should be enough good news to trump Italian Bond auction. Rest of week seems to be just a slew of US data, but we will not have a rally on this information, imho. 8/10 rallies we have had since this volatility began were run on Euro-news, and only 2/10 were run on economic data strength. Odds of this rally being sustained on US data coming out at the end of the weak will grow slim and thin.

Wednesday/Thursday is my personal target for getting out of longs and jumping into shorts. Though trade accordingly. While my predictions are on the conservative 1220 side of this rally, I know Mact is seeing 1250-1300's possibly, and I know others whom do this are projecting 1275. This is a 80 point window where anything would turn around. No one really knows when it will stop. I do assume after 1250 we will begin losing momentum either fast, or altogether.

[MEMMEZZ]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Market passed the first resistance level predicted at 1185-1190 range and held it at the end of the day. The next resistance would be 1200-1220 and it seems likely we will clear this tomorrow. To add to the comment about the rally at the end of the day, that logged in 100M+ volume. This is by far a return of volume that we have been missing for a while, and I have been waiting for fuel like this for a while. But, the retail investors returning to the markets after today's pop will be the backs you should get out on. The rally will sustain for 1-2 more days, perhaps three, though 1250 - 1275 shouldn't take too long. The ride down will be rather fun! Retail investors will largely be reassured by: 1) Greece bailout tomorrow, 2) EFSF fund being increased 3) some sort of resolution coming out of EU summit Dec 9th.

This would be the exit window to get out before everyone else does. News like this are disregarded very quickly after their publication. Nothing is going to come of this week. But it's an excellent window of opportunity to short the markets and load up.

I believe the shorts, EDZ and TZA, I've been eyeing have lost 14% each, respectively, today. Tomorrow, they'll lose more. And on the way down, we will see a very high upside to these ETFs.

Tuesday should be enough good news to trump Italian Bond auction. Rest of week seems to be just a slew of US data, but we will not have a rally on this information, imho. 8/10 rallies we have had since this volatility began were run on Euro-news, and only 2/10 were run on economic data strength. Odds of this rally being sustained on US data coming out at the end of the weak will grow slim and thin.

Wednesday/Thursday is my personal target for getting out of longs and jumping into shorts. Though trade accordingly. While my predictions are on the conservative 1220 side of this rally, I know Mact is seeing 1250-1300's possibly, and I know others whom do this are projecting 1275. This is a 80 point window where anything would turn around. No one really knows when it will stop. I do assume after 1250 we will begin losing momentum either fast, or altogether.

Tomorrow is definitely looking good with what you mentioned (http://www.cnbc.com/id/45472580), Asian stocks closing strong and black friday record sales being followed by record cyber monday online sales (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...191494882.html). But it seems youre leaning away from your full on year end rally theory if/when we break above 1220 later this week.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

Tomorrow is definitely looking good with what you mentioned (http://www.cnbc.com/id/45472580), Asian stocks closing strong and black friday record sales being followed by record cyber monday online sales (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...191494882.html). But it seems youre leaning away from your full on year end rally theory if/when we break above 1220 later this week.

A year end rally would be like 1 to 2 weeks of solid buying on volume. It would not be incredibly long, but instead would be very intensive and would raise the markets substantially. It could still happen as it's almost unreasonable to predict the next month and a half being solid losses. The year-end rally would fit sometime in here, though we'll need to see more evidence in the charts and in the information available sooner. I wouldn't know what level we would be bouncing back or down from. Time will tell.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I'm still expecting some sort of relief rally (mini or large), though the time forecast is bound within a week here. Most likely situation is we have a "dead-cat bounce" rally, then we chop lower. Interbank lending in Europe froze today. ECB now only lender of money to Banks -- don't even talk about sovereign debt. Might finally see that French downgrade soon. Perfect timing would be after a rally. So I'm expecting downgrade soon.

Said this last week, still very much expecting the downgrade of France to completely wipe away confidence in the markets built up this week.

Oh, look here: http://www.cnbc.com/id/45473214

Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's could change its outlook on France's triple-A credit rating to negative within the next 10 days

The economic and financial daily said S&P — which cut Belgium's credit rating to double-A from double-A-plus on Friday — had planned to make its announcement on France the same day but postponed it for unknown reasons.

Let's see, Friday was when SPX was on tipping point of testing October lows and breaking 62% support levels. Coincidence They, imho, postponed that downgrade and it's been long overdue by about at least 2 weeks now (if you look what what's been happening with interbank lending in Euro, especially France. Bond markets telling the story). Rating agencies are going to bring the knives out soon on France and this is going to be absolutely catalytic to a descent downwards. They held-off that downgrade for the perfect timing.

[Vanity]

Exiting my long positions. Futures meeting resistance at 1200 and I am going to be cautious here instead of being blindsided.

[mact3333]

sell off near the open was to shake off weak longs....as noted last night, addded to my longs at the open...mkts dont trade on news...90% of the news is tailored to the price action...there are a few exceptions like when govts announce QE and etc but this is infrequent.

I am not looking for 1300 for upside...thats too high...will let you know when I sell longs.

No need to try to catch the exact low or high cause it isnt going to happen...unless you are a day trader, dont play the ST...money is made playing IT and LT.

[MEMMEZZ]

Vanity, why does your post count never change from 107?
Sorry getting a little off topic lol.

[mact3333]

peeled off longs at ES 1199 level...gonna watch for now.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by mact3333

sell off near the open was to shake off weak longs....as noted last night, addded to my longs at the open...mkts dont trade on news...90% of the news is tailored to the price action...there are a few exceptions like when govts announce QE and etc but this is infrequent.

I am not looking for 1300 for upside...thats too high...will let you know when I sell longs.

No need to try to catch the exact low or high cause it isnt going to happen...unless you are a day trader, dont play the ST...money is made playing IT and LT.

It was the better decision made today for me. Was holding on to MS, and every single bank stock is down today.

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

Vanity, why does your post count never change from 107?
Sorry getting a little off topic lol.

Off Topic section doesn't add to your post count. I don't really post anywhere else, more just browse the other sections of the site.

Originally Posted by mact3333

peeled off longs at ES 1199 level...gonna watch for now.

Spx cleared 1200 level but I'm not expecting this to go much longer. Might jump into some shorts t the end of the day. What does everyone else have planned?


I figure if we begin the descent tomorrow at market open, we can retest October lows up until the EU summit. Then a rally till Christmas could be worked in thereafter. Appears to me, ATM, the most logical timeline. Chime in guys, especially the lurkers

[Vanity]

Just came across my head but, I miss AngelinisRich08's stockmarket nonsense Funny times.

[Javi335]

All i know about economy, invest etc etc is that is a circus, a show

they decide the scene and you follow the krewe

pure science fiction

thats all

ciao, im gonna buy some bank of america stocks, they are so cheap now

[MEMMEZZ]

Are you guys going short with a close like that or still waiting on the sidelines until tomorrow?

[Vanity]

I am invested in TZA now. We spent the entire day to gain 2.64 on spx? After a 3% pop? This rally is dead, or will be dead very soon. It spent the entire day trying break and hold over 1200, it couldn't do that. And we had good news come out with Italy having a relatively successful bond auction, a leveraging if the EFSF fund, and Greece getting its money. That was priced in at +2.64? Not a chance.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Javi335

All i know about economy, invest etc etc is that is a circus, a show

they decide the scene and you follow the krewe

pure science fiction

thats all

ciao, im gonna buy some bank of america stocks, they are so cheap now

Why would you do that? S&P had said they were going to be downgrading 87 banks across 15 countries. After hours they released the list, and it was so foreseeable that BAC was going to be hit. And they just got downgraded.

[Vanity]

Who would have thought the Central Banks would do that... mmm

[MEMMEZZ]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Who would have thought the Central Banks would do that... mmm

looks like we're gonna be testing 1275-1300 soon. enough talk about october lows, lets talk about october highs

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

looks like we're gonna be testing 1275-1300 soon. enough talk about october lows, lets talk about october highs

Not so sure. This interest rate business of 0.5% cut across all central bank loans globally is a big deal, if you trade forex. This does not address in any way the Euro Crisis, nor the funding issues of EFSF and Italy's bond markets. It's nice to say the Central Banks are collectively working together, but it also shows things have been a lot worse than we expected for such large-scale action. Today was a big buffer for household and business credit lines in the event of a Euro Collaspe. The Central banks globally got together to do this? Holy shit. That means it must be pretty bad in Europe.

But Europe isn't a liquidity crisis, and liquidity has already racked everyman and his dog with debt for the past 3 years. Who's to say households and business will borrow more? Can they even? And why the central banks have come together to slash interest rates, the bigger news is that they haven't come together to save the countries, only prepare for their collapse. Interesting...

I'm expecting markets to realize something after today. That 400 point rally today was on 25M Volume. That is not a rally. That is artificial, and we all know what has happened to every artificial rally in history. Poof.

[MEMMEZZ]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Not so sure. This interest rate business of 0.5% cut across all central bank loans globally is a big deal, if you trade forex. This does not address in any way the Euro Crisis, nor the funding issues of EFSF and Italy's bond markets. It's nice to say the Central Banks are collectively working together, but it also shows things have been a lot worse than we expected for such large-scale action. Today was a big buffer for household and business credit lines in the event of a Euro Collaspe. The Central banks globally got together to do this? Holy shit. That means it must be pretty bad in Europe.

But Europe isn't a liquidity crisis, and liquidity has already racked everyman and his dog with debt for the past 3 years. Who's to say households and business will borrow more? Can they even? And why the central banks have come together to slash interest rates, the bigger news is that they haven't come together to save the countries, only prepare for their collapse. Interesting...

I'm expecting markets to realize something after today. That 400 point rally today was on 25M Volume. That is not a rally. That is artificial, and we all know what has happened to every artificial rally in history. Poof.

I agree that the overall outlook is still very poor fundamentally but im convinced that the markets are overwhelmingly dependent on headlines, regardless of the actual fundamental implications of a headline (like you explained above).

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

I agree that the overall outlook is still very poor fundamentally but im convinced that the markets are overwhelmingly dependent on headlines, regardless of the actual fundamental implications of a headline (like you explained above).

French Downgrade news should trump the Central Banks headline