Stock market tips and experiences

[Javi335]

Thank you sir

[mact3333]

trend day dow today likely...open gap couldnt be closed within 1st hour...bulls need caution here...selling some longs to lock in profits...bearish below 1240 ES and 1244 SPX.

So who was the one on here that said Italy wont affect us here in the US?....

[Vanity]

New Greece PM will be announced at 4:00am EST, 1:00am PST tonight. They are riding on Papademos' acceptance for the role, he is a former vice-president of the ECB and should bring credibility to the incredibly stupid government currently in right now.

Here's an interesting article I want everyone to read:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/45218531

Here are some excerpts:

There is a 65 percent chance of a banking crisis between November 23-26 following a Greek default and a run on the Italian banking system, according to analysts at Exclusive Analysis, a research firm that focuses on global risks.

Remember to note that Nov. 23rd is also when the U.S. Super committee must present it's budget cuts of $1.2 Trillion. If it fails to meet that, attention shifts to U.S.

Between November 18-22, French debt, under Exclusive Analysis' most likely scenario, is downgraded leading to the interbank lending market freezing up with new governments in Greece and Italy “faced down by protestors in their attempts to implement more austerity”.

Even if Papademos, or a new Greek government is formed, this may result.

I encourage everyone to read the full article. There are tons of doomsday scenarios flying everywhere. They will mostly say the same thing. But this is educational in seeing what might become of the situation. It's also pretty in-line with what I agree will happen.

There article also gives a 25% likelyhood of smooth sailing for the next few months (till December) before the craziness comes back again. But that's their opinion. Form your own from their argument.

[Rivenscyr]

So whats everyone doing with their portfolios now?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...110-1n85g.html

Been waiting for a dip in the market to jump back in, now seems like a not-so-good time as of yet

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Rivenscyr

So whats everyone doing with their portfolios now?
http://www.smh.com.au/business/marke...110-1n85g.html

Been waiting for a dip in the market to jump back in, now seems like a not-so-good time as of yet

I'm invested in TVIX right now. Waiting to see what happens tomorrow, my opinion is obviously of a bearish nature.

And also, $30 billion isn't too bad. When the referendum was called last week, the markets took a dive of $95 Billion in the Euro Markets. Papandreou's resignation is indeed a near $100 Billion market mover.

EDIT: ICBC (Industrial and Commercial bank of China) saw Goldman Sachs sell about $8.54 billion dollars of their holdings in the bank today. This, alongside the market drop from today, saw the shares of ICBC drop up to 8.5% percent. This is the most it's dropped since Nov. 2008, and ICBC is the world's biggest lender by market value.

Margin calls also raised by 5% today on Italian Bond markets. This is gonna cause a big Margin Call to whoever is playing italian debt (and believe me, lots of big institutions are) Thurs/Fri.

P.S.: French Short-sale bans are going to expire this friday. What does this mean? It means people can now begin to short the French banks again Italy and Spain have similar short-selling bans in place, but those are set to expire soon too. They may extend them, we will see.

Things a' brewin' folks.

[Vanity]

Just something to look out for here,

Back in Late July this year, when this all started, there were two things markets focused on:
1) us debt ceiling talks being irresolute before the deadline.
2) Italian bond yields soaring to 6% (back when that was considered high)

Anybody see the same pattern this time? Super committee irresolution before Nov. 23rd, and bond yields going back up again. If you look at the charts for July and Nov. you can see a retracing of the same market sentiments in the lines.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by Vanity

Just something to look out for here,

Back in Late July this year, when this all started, there were two things markets focused on:
1) us debt ceiling talks being irresolute before the deadline.
2) Italian bond yields soaring to 6% (back when that was considered high)

Anybody see the same pattern this time? Super committee irresolution before Nov. 23rd, and bond yields going back up again. If you look at the charts for July and Nov. you can see a retracing of the same market sentiments in the lines.

EDIT: Markets dip lower today. Spainish Bond yields hit above 6%. Italian bond yields hit 6.94%

[johanness]

Predictions for a bad end to Nov still or?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by johanness

Predictions for a bad end to Nov still or?

Markets at the moment are hovering between 1230-1260, with the lowest record volume in the last 4 months. To get the momentum we need to push higher or chop lower, we're going to need big news to come out. I don't see any indications of a fully-bullish or fully-bearish nature in this 1230-1260 region we're in. It's more indecisive than it is anything else. Call it the purgatory level while markets anticipate judgement in Europe.

Big news to look for:

- Nov. 23rd, US Super-committee will most likely fall short of their 1.2 trillion budget cut, but will most likely meet half of those targets.

- If Italian yields cross the 7 - 7.25% mark again, expect huge sell-offs like the one we saw last week. Same goes for Spain hitting higher yields, as well as the widening French and German bond yields.

- Funding for the EFSF to increase from $404 Billion Euros to $1.2 Trillion Euros NOT being gathered. BRICS won't lend money. Japan won't lend money. Europe will have to figure out tough ways of raising that money on their own. They won't get it all in one shot, so expect market unrest once Media starts talking about this.

- French or US credit downgrades again. This will shut-up the interbank lending (possibly), or at the very least instill fear of French Contagion. Potentially huge sell-off.

As you can see, what I'm expecting to see happen is unlikely to be resolved by Political will but very likely to occur soon.

At this moment, I'd be big long if SPX breaks 1280+ for a confirmed upward rally. And I'd be heavy short if SPX broke 1220.

Fact of the matter is, you have to weigh your apples and oranges. Some good news came out, but math doesn't lie: Italy cannot pay off it's debts, there just isnt enough money in Europe (without ECB printing money).

Personally, I'm looking for a downward trend, just because Fear is always more motivating than Greed. We're coming off of a month-long October rally but can't seem to hit higher-highs so far. That should tell you something.

Mact, you still here? What's your opinion?

[Vanity]

Look at this thing GO!

*toilet flush*

Thank you Fitch Dow broke 12000 today


Edit: I refuse to Have this thread turn into a private memoir of my stock trading, so talk guys.

[mact3333]

No need to get excited yet....let this triangle resolve first.

[mact3333]

open gap filled...will not have trend day today...chop fest cont's for now...1275 and 1210 range needs to be decisively broken before we get excited again.

But watch Spain, they are up next.

[slamako]

Quick question for a noob:

They say that watching moving averages will not work during range bound trading. Is this because that moving averages are lagging and by the time you get the signal, the opposite may be happening?

I am watching 5 and 9 day moving averages and looking for crossovers as it lags less and a little bit extra to have signals call early. This is one of the strategies that is being used by this group I just joined. <--aside: this group mainly trades options, but I found out that I can't stomach it and keep my day job.

So with a shorter EMA, will still be more effective with range bound trading?

Lastly, as a check-I am checking the Hull Moving Average and quick review of MACD.

Thank you in advance for any input.

Papertrading
SQQQ (Nov 14 )
TZA (Nov 14)

[Vanity]

SPX broke 1220! Right after, stocks tumbled sharply!

Originally Posted by mact3333

open gap filled...will not have trend day today...chop fest cont's for now...1275 and 1210 range needs to be decisively broken before we get excited again.

But watch Spain, they are up next.

I agree, we should reserve judgement for a while, but the next level to be tested will be 1200 on SPX. If that breaks (odds favour it will in EURO Crisis, now that US fundamental datas have come and gone) then I hope everyone makes money

Been sitting on my TVIX since last week, it's made quite a handsome return

[mact3333]

You will not make money if you trade for short term...you have to use the 50dma and 200dma...only people lucky enough to get the IT and LT trend correct will make money...ST traders always get slaughtered by the pro's.

For ST traders you have know about delta charts and money/volume flow.

But if you have a real job you cant trade ST successfully as its too stressful...and trading options is very very dangerous...I use it as a hedge mostly and sometimes take very small positions in options for fun mostly.

Originally Posted by slamako

Quick question for a noob:

They say that watching moving averages will not work during range bound trading. Is this because that moving averages are lagging and by the time you get the signal, the opposite may be happening?

I am watching 5 and 9 day moving averages and looking for crossovers as it lags less and a little bit extra to have signals call early. This is one of the strategies that is being used by this group I just joined. <--aside: this group mainly trades options, but I found out that I can't stomach it and keep my day job.

So with a shorter EMA, will still be more effective with range bound trading?

Lastly, as a check-I am checking the Hull Moving Average and quick review of MACD.

Thank you in advance for any input.

Papertrading
SQQQ (Nov 14 )
TZA (Nov 14)

[Vanity]

I do this full-time, and I do agree ST trading is not for the faint of heart or for everybody. But it is lucrative


Mact, SPX just hit 1209.99 for a bit. 2 more hours to go~

[ejheverest]

Originally Posted by Vanity

I do this full-time, and I do agree ST trading is not for the faint of heart or for everybody. But it is lucrative


Mact, SPX just hit 1209.99 for a bit. 2 more hours to go~

I agree-short term trading is not for everybody. Although most people think they can handle it, most don't last more than 6 months.
Used to day-trade SPX options, decided after doing it for 6 months, I prefer longer term trading 3-9 month positions, depending on market conditions, possibly over a year.

You scalping the indices intraday with options, synthetic stock, or you doing it by selling/buying shares?

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by ejheverest

I agree-short term trading is not for everybody. Although most people think they can handle it, most don't last more than 6 months.
Used to day-trade SPX options, decided after doing it for 6 months, I prefer longer term trading 3-9 month positions, depending on market conditions, possibly over a year.

You scalping the indices intraday with options, synthetic stock, or you doing it by selling/buying shares?

Nowadays it's been a bit of stock-flipping here and there. Most of it would be leveraged ETFs. Not ready to jump into options trading just yet. You used to trade options or? What do you do now

[MEMMEZZ]

Any predictions on what the market is gonna do next week? I believe historically the week of thanksgiving is suppose to be pretty strong. But i dont know how thats gonna play into all this focus on Europe this year.

[Vanity]

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

Any predictions on what the market is gonna do next week? I believe historically the week of thanksgiving is suppose to be pretty strong. But i dont know how thats gonna play into all this focus on Europe this year.

And October is supposed to be the worst. Look what happened there, you had a month-long rally.

What will likely happen is the Super-Committee won't come to a deal by Monday (the day they're supposed to unveil anything). The two days that follow-up to their Wednesday midnight-deadline to get the plans drafted, will not happen (most likely). You'll see sequestration happen in 2013. The auto-cuts will be pretty blind and harsh. Short term predictions? Markets sell-off.

How far? Well they could sell off and find support at 1200 level, since the markets didnt believe the super-committee was going to pull-through anyways. Or, as some analysts are calling for, the SPX could drop 5%. Goldman Sachs is calling for a 10% drop in the markets. It's all relative to what happened.

There might be incentive to have a huge sell-off, as Tuesday we see Bernanke come out discussing the QE3 provisions they talked about in their meeting the previous month. Nothing positive is coming out of EU this week in terms of meaningful reforms or other things. You do have the EU Commission detailing plans for a euro-bond, but those are for years down the road and not for immediate implementation.

ECB will declare how much bonds it's been buying so far, but we all know whatever the amount is, it isn't enough to sustain stability in the bonds for long -- as the markets have so clearly shown the volatility of yield spreads.

Of course, the markets could turn around at 1200 and go for a year-end rally. But on what incentive? I can't see a defined one for now.
You do have about $100 billion worth of Treasury note auctions coming in this week, and there will more support for them from Europeans not wanting to buy their own. So the US will look like a better deal, for now. Of course, if Monday is a flop with the whole $1.2 trillion dollar super committee deal, that might drive away from investments. GDP is also coming out on Tuesday, and it might show growth as all the indicators so far have. But it's a question of "how much" GDP will be this quarter. We need 3%+ or more to fuel a decent recovery. We're at around 2% ish right now.

[stylinexpat]

Originally Posted by MEMMEZZ

Any predictions on what the market is gonna do next week? I believe historically the week of thanksgiving is suppose to be pretty strong. But i dont know how thats gonna play into all this focus on Europe this year.

Monday should be quite bloody. I expect -2% at minimum.

[mact3333]

as noted last week, all 3 time frames(ST, IT, LT) bearish below 1220...1220 still key...no long positions below this level to stay safe.

Bearish conviction bar today might seal the deal.