Stock market tips and experiences

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

This is why you can’t let yourself get banned!

Imagine a world without your unmatched insights—a world deprived of your wisdom on life's most profound questions. Who else would dare tackle the weighty dilemmas of our time, like whether it's ever acceptable to deposit your dog’s poop in a neighbor's bin? The OT and the world at large are in desperate need of your unparalleled guidance. You mustn’t let yourself be silenced. Your wisdom, your voice—it's what keeps the world spinning!

And my head!

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

i wish i would have put more money in on election night. but i went to bed early. Had a pretty sizeable 5-6% gain in the portfolio since then

i would have thought nvda would have gone down with the worry of tariffs, but like others said i think the tariffs will only effect the lower income brackets. Or they will be slowly ramped up.

anyway... yes most likely his policies will only help the wealthy. Might as well get in on some of the action while you can by investing his buddies like Bezos and Elon.

How are they going to re-write the EV subsidies so that only Tesla qualifies?

I jest, of course. Elon is going to lose them too. Boy is he going to be angry.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

How are they going to re-write the EV subsidies so that only Tesla qualifies?

I jest, of course. Elon is going to lose them too. Boy is he going to be angry.

so ironically... elon claims that the removal of the subsidies would actually benefit him because it would hurt the competitors more than it would hurt Tesla...

that being said... the only thing I advise against in the next 4 years is holding too much cash... especially if inflationary policies come back to play

[thebmw]

Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps

This is why you can’t let yourself get banned!

Imagine a world without your unmatched insights—a world deprived of your wisdom on life's most profound questions. Who else would dare tackle the weighty dilemmas of our time, like whether it's ever acceptable to deposit your dog’s poop in a neighbor's bin? The OT and the world at large are in desperate need of your unparalleled guidance. You mustn’t let yourself be silenced. Your wisdom, your voice—it's what keeps the world spinning!

I am glad someone said it. I wasn't sure if I was the only one thinking the same thing. It reminds me of a quote that Abraham Lincoln once said:

“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt”

[thebmw]

I wonder how much more the market will go up considering the massive gains it has seen this year and even in the last few days. What is anyone's guess for the end of next year and the end of 4 years?

[Watching The World Burn]

Originally Posted by thebmw

I wonder how much more the market will go up considering the massive gains it has seen this year and even in the last few days. What is anyone's guess for the end of next year and the end of 4 years?

One billion percent.

That's my guess - I'm locking it in.

(Should be worth approximately as much as anyone else's guess on here too)

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by thebmw

I wonder how much more the market will go up considering the massive gains it has seen this year and even in the last few days. What is anyone's guess for the end of next year and the end of 4 years?

If we're talking about the S&P - the market is up around 11% the last 5 years and if we expand out to 20 years it's up around 8% (average net return each year)

The average return over the last 100 years is around 7.5%.

Did you think we were up more? The nasdaq was down like 33% in 2022 alone.

Aren't stocks supposed to go up long term? I'm just wondering what your thoughts are?

[RockCrusher]

Originally Posted by Humdizzle

i wish i would have put more money in on election night. but i went to bed early. Had a pretty sizeable 5-6% gain in the portfolio since then

i would have thought nvda would have gone down with the worry of tariffs, but like others said i think the tariffs will only effect the lower income brackets. Or they will be slowly ramped up.

anyway... yes most likely his policies will only help the wealthy. Might as well get in on some of the action while you can by investing his buddies like Bezos and Elon.

Might have been better had you had the money in the market long before the election.

From Monday to today S&P 500 up 4.56%.

Past month it is up 4.11%.

Past 6 months it is up 15.43%.

YTD it is up 26.32%.

One year it is up 36.67%.

[DrVenture]

^I agree. If one looks at the end of the week before the election results were known, the market actually dipped 2-3%. Part of Wednesdays action was a bounce back and a rotation - financials, small caps and energy mainly outperformed. Certain sectors like consumer cyclicals and healthcare actually went down or stayed the same.

What is good is that all this has spurred some lively conversation in this mostly dead thread.

[vreihen16]

Originally Posted by Tyga11

Aren't stocks supposed to go up long term? I'm just wondering what your thoughts are?

Factor in the decreased value of the dollar due to inflation into all of those percentages.....

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

so ironically... elon claims that the removal of the subsidies would actually benefit him because it would hurt the competitors more than it would hurt Tesla...

that being said... the only thing I advise against in the next 4 years is holding too much cash... especially if inflationary policies come back to play

Reading between the lines, this means Musk knows that subsidies are propping up sales. And that he is worried about competition. People reveal the most when they make off-the-cuff comments.

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by vreihen16

Factor in the decreased value of the dollar due to inflation into all of those percentages.....

Yes, great point.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by Watching The World Burn

One billion percent.

That's my guess - I'm locking it in.

(Should be worth approximately as much as anyone else's guess on here too)

The best guess that anyone could make is one that is around the average.

Looking at the S&P 500 for the years 1993 to mid-2023, the average stock market return for the last 30 years is 9.90% (7.22% when adjusted for inflation). My base case estimate is to always go with the average for the short term (1-yr), as a safe bet.

Or calculate the reversion to mean as an eventuality over time. The S&P has returned about 14.7% in the last 10 years. That wouldn't appear to bode well over the longer term, say 4 years. The longer one looks out, the more likely reversion becomes, as a statistical exercise.

The old adage that "the market can remain irrational, longer than the average investor can remain solvent", may apply also. Before the election, the market was thought to be trading at a 2% premium by some.

[DrVenture]

Here is an analysis using historical statistics, which portrays the market as over-valued between 103 and 170%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...ill-overvalued.

Which would raise the usual question of, "are things different now?".

[Tyga11]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Here is an analysis using historical statistics, which portrays the market as over-valued between 103 and 170%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...ill-overvalued.

Which would raise the usual question of, "are things different now?".

S&P is trading at 26x earnings...there's a lot of debate as to what the 'normal' number is. Some people say 21 and some people say 24.

[DrVenture]

A chart of the S&P P/E

https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio

Then there is the Schiller P/E, which some prefer, as it takes into account additional factors.

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

The average depends on the chosen timeframe, of course.

[2000cs]

A lot of institutional and program money flows into the markets in Q4 typically, so a modest rally from these levels is likely through mid December-ish. Probably favors S&P and big tech stocks unless there is rate cut talk again for December (more than already anticipated), which is good for tech (NASDAQ) generally.