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10-17-2024, 11:33 AM | #8471 | ||
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Quote:
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10-17-2024, 12:22 PM | #8472 | |
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unless we see revised data in a week lol
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10-17-2024, 12:58 PM | #8473 | |
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I don't see any alarming data.
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10-17-2024, 02:36 PM | #8474 |
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Ir seems evident that many people fail to understand the difference between the FED funds rate and long term treasuries. Or the relationship between them and other factors.
Short term rates should typically run below long term rates. Hence, lowering the FED funds rate, while the 10-yr advances, is a return to a normal yield curve. “Real wage growth and underlying demand for goods and services are overshadowing negative sentiment,” is an indication that the FED did not go too far with rate hikes. They are in a perfect position to wait on data and act (or do nothing) based on the results. Jobs are strong and inflation subdued. More from the link provided: “The economy continues to accelerate thanks to the U.S. consumer, and may improve further as lower fuel prices kick in. Today’s numbers make a recession look even less likely.” "Weekly jobless claims, meanwhile, fell to 241,000, according to separate data released Thursday. Taken together, both data points paint a picture of a resilient economy." "Yields took a leg up after consumer spending figures came in hotter than forecast. Retail sales showed a rise of 0.4% in September, above the estimate of 0.3% from economists polled by Dow Jones. Excluding autos, sales increased 0.5%, also higher than the consensus expectation of 0.1%."
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10-17-2024, 04:21 PM | #8475 |
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Nobody knows what's really going to happen in the market. It's all speculation, estimates, and prior history to develop an educated guess. I've always found it quite funny when market analysts put so much weight into a sub 1% movement in employment, growth, etc. especially movements of 0.1%. LOL
Consumers are likely spending again because many prices have fallen and there are more deals to be had as many companies and manufacturers realize that they got really greedy and have had to pull back prices to order to move their products/inventory.
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10-18-2024, 07:51 AM | #8476 | |
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I also disagree with the "greedy manufacturers", they have always tried to get as much as they can for their products, they are paid to sell, maximize profits and raising prices when they can is part of it. Prices go up with demand going up, come down some amount with demand dropping, there isn't some changing mentality based on greed.
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10-21-2024, 06:30 AM | #8477 |
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10-21-2024, 05:38 PM | #8478 |
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So how much cash does everyone have?
I'm at 7%. Probably staying put for the time being. Been trimming big tech pretty constantly the past 2 months or so... |
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10-22-2024, 03:44 PM | #8479 |
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About 6%. Still mostly invested in S&P 500 index funds (70%), Berkshire Class B (15%), and then various other mutual funds, bond funds, stocks, and cash. Pretty much the way I've had things for since 2017. I don't plan to change anything.
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10-23-2024, 08:19 AM | #8480 |
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the lols do not stop
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/23/mort...mer-highs.html seems like the fed's narrative has changed so yields are reacting already and yet again... the good old average consumer gets screwed
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Yesterday, 09:26 AM | #8481 |
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On this day in 1929 was Black Thursday and the market dropped 11%. On this same day in 2008 was Bloody Friday when we had a worldwide crash with most indexes dropping 10%. Screw October 24th when it comes to the market. Things are looking fine today.
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Today, 09:44 AM | #8483 | |
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very heavy in tech but adding more to others like rtx, xom, jpm, amzn to try and diversify a bit more now.
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Today, 12:35 PM | #8484 |
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From Oct 21 issue of Barron's - UP & DOWN WALL STREET. "Talking heads on TV are touting this EVERYTHING-RALLY. This bull market that started on 10/12/22 is into its 3rd year and those are good historically. The rally has broadened from techs and large-caps to small/mid-caps, cyclicals, and even to countercyclical areas such as volatility , gold (+32% YTD), bond yields (was Fed’s 50 bps jumbo cut too much?). The October surprise is, well, NO surprise. Atlanta GDPNow is projecting Q3 GDP growth as +3.4% (real)."
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Today, 12:44 PM | #8485 |
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Also from the latest Barron's - Pg 16, COVER STORY, “MILLENNIALS Aren’t Falling Behind After All. This Data Reveals the Generation’s Deeper Problem”. New data shows that millennials (born 1981-1996) are doing better (inflation-adjusted) than boomers at similar ages. They have better education, safety nets (UTMA, 529, IRA, 401k, brokerage accounts), support systems from parents and relatives, possibly inheritances, and a booming stock market has helped too. But they have a wider wealth gap between the 80th and 20th percentiles and some are struggling. Homeownership is a challenge. But they have been exposed to several economic and market crises and are aware of the need for savings and contingency plans. Politically, they favor populism and social safety nets."
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