Will the pandemic economy cause a drop in new car prices?

[haan9953]

Originally Posted by advrider6510

I am getting promotional emails for new and used cars!!!

Lucky

[RM7]

Originally Posted by haan9953

Lucky

I've got a few...they aren't anything special.

Costco was offering a $500 card with the purchase of a Mercedes E-series. That seems kind of out-of-touch to me...

[paliknight]

OP, I was shopping for new 2020 Ford raptors recently and I've seen many discounted 7-10k. A few even more. That is unprecedented for a raptor.

That's just one datapoint, but other members make great arguments. Most people don't even need a car right now even if they could afford it.

I stopped shopping though because I got laid off so I didn't think it would be wise to buy a car right now.

[jamesinaz]

I was contacted by my BMW dealership regarding the fact my current BMW lease is ending in June. I wrote back great I hope there are some great deals to be had. Long story short here was the salesman reply:


With BMW having closed the factory that builds the X5's for the month of April and the first several weeks of production will be almost all for China since nothing has gone there for a while, we will most likely be in a situation where inventories / selections of X5's will be very low.
That being said, we want to sell cars as I'm sure you know.
For factory orders right now you're looking at July Delivery.
If we have something now that would work for you, I'd be happy to give you the best possible deal.

Thoughts?

[RM7]

Originally Posted by paliknight

OP, I was shopping for new 2020 Ford raptors recently and I've seen many discounted 7-10k. A few even more. That is unprecedented for a raptor.

That's just one datapoint, but other members make great arguments. Most people don't even need a car right now even if they could afford it.

I stopped shopping though because I got laid off so I didn't think it would be wise to buy a car right now.

Depends, you mean on inventory sitting on the lot? The things that people want most will go fastest, as usual. If you are wanting a certain feature, it's going to be slim pickings to nothing, with production lines shut down. Dealers probably not getting crazy desperate yet, 7K on a Raptor that goes for 90K isn't a huge distance $ wise...yet. But after these cars go, there'll be plenty of cars, but probably not the ones you want.

[paliknight]

Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes

Depends, you mean on inventory sitting on the lot? The things that people want most will go fastest, as usual. If you are wanting a certain feature, it's going to be slim pickings to nothing, with production lines shut down. Dealers probably not getting crazy desperate yet, 7K on a Raptor that goes for 90K isn't a huge distance $ wise...yet. But after these cars go, there'll be plenty of cars, but probably not the ones you want.

Yes on the lot. Discount from MSRP. for a raptor that is significant even for on the lot vehicles. One raptor was discounted to 49k new from 60k MSRP.

[chassis]

I agree this is going to take time to play out.

Manufacturers will slow production, helping avoid worsening an oversupply problem caused by a decrease in demand. This is Economics 101.

Lease returns are contractually known in terms of date of return, and have some semblance of predictability. Finance companies may be offering flexible deals to avoid financial calamity for them (the finance companies).

Consumers dumping an underwater deal, ie vehicle purchased on credit or early lease get-out, seems like a small contributor to the overall picture. These vehicles will be on the newer/lower mileage end of the scale, and will bring OK-ish prices on the used market.

Prices will drop on used vehicles with no loan, sold by consumers seeking to liquidate assets and raise cash. Possibly for example a 7 year old Toyota Corolla with 105k miles. These are not in my search criteria, so are of no relevance to me, and I argue of little relevance to the big picture.

I don’t see a 3 year old Ferrari 812 Superfast with 15k miles going for “cheap” in this environment.

[jamesinaz]

Originally Posted by chassis

I don’t see a 3 year old Ferrari 812 Superfast with 15k miles going for “cheap” in this environment.

If you do happen to see one could you see to it I see it too.

[RM7]

Originally Posted by paliknight

Yes on the lot. Discount from MSRP. for a raptor that is significant even for on the lot vehicles. One raptor was discounted to 49k new from 60k MSRP.

I've never found a car on the lot with the features I want, so this is totally useless to me. I see cars that people want going fairly fast, cars that people don't want are going to sit there for a long time until the dealer gets desperate enough.

[jamesinaz]

Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes

I've never found a car on the lot with the features I want, so this is totally useless to me. I see cars that people want going fairly fast, cars that people don't want are going to sit there for a long time until the dealer gets desperate enough.

Looking at dealers inventory seems like both BMW and Audi have a lot. I know the Q5 and X5 are popular but both my dealers have over 50 of them. You'd think they are dealing but who knows. I sure don't.

[paliknight]

Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes

I've never found a car on the lot with the features I want, so this is totally useless to me. I see cars that people want going fairly fast, cars that people don't want are going to sit there for a long time until the dealer gets desperate enough.

I usuallly also custom order for the same reason as you, but I was just giving an example of recent market trends.

The Ford raptor (before Covid) was the GT3/RS of the American truck world.

[chassis]

No price movement today in my search windows. The lowest priced units have undesirable (to many) color combination or cosmetic damage (scratches) although with clean titles.

[jamesinaz]

I was just quoted a new X5 lease with no data regarding price or residual. Just payment. Based on their own webpage I figured out I got a whopping $2000 discount on a $78000 car. From inventory.

Kinda insulted that I was offered that.

[dTrey03]

Do you guys think we are in for a vehicle market crash? If that's the case, I think i'll have to sell my car instead of part exchanging it

[chassis]

@dTrey03 the theory, based on pandemic-related economic slowdown, is that the market will crash. So far I have not found this to be the case.

A crash, if one happens, will likely take time to materialize. If a crash occurs, it will happen 2-6 months from now.

[Flacht3]

I've been looking at a few higher end models since the start of all this (not totally seriously, but at a certain point I will possibly bite)...specifically a 430 Scud, 458 and 675LT.

So far no one is budging much on price, but I think folks are generally optimistic and don't realize how long this could last and how much worse it could get. A few more weeks of punting "re-openings" back (Bay area just extended to June) and I think dealers/sellers may start moving inventory more aggressively, but I still don't see the bottom falling out.

[4Hockey4]

Auction and used car inventories are backing up, that will make consumer and dealer rebates larger over summer.

[jamesinaz]

Originally Posted by 4Hockey4

Auction and used car inventories are backing up, that will make consumer and dealer rebates larger over summer.

Is there some place I can watch inventory levels? Some online location? And is it broken down by brand, model, etc?

[4Hockey4]

Originally Posted by jamesinaz

Is there some place I can watch inventory levels? Some online location? And is it broken down by brand, model, etc?

I've just been reading online assessment, and industry articles, never tracked actual auctions live.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...lunging-u.aspx

Showing 11% decrease in used car prices in a month, thats huge. Its also a horrible time to try and sell your car..some estimate used car prices lowest end of May to mid June.

[jamesinaz]

Originally Posted by 4Hockey4

I've just been reading online assessment, and industry articles, never tracked actual auctions live.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/...lunging-u.aspx

Showing 11% decrease in used car prices in a month, thats huge. Its also a horrible time to try and sell your car..some estimate used car prices lowest end of May to mid June.

Thanks for that link. Very informative. I am returning a 540i in June and I bet they would love to have me extend it for a year. Not my intention though.

Seems to me that if used car prices crash and burn then new cars have to take a similar hit. Might convince me to buy used in June when I need a car if new cars don't show price reductions.

[flybigjet]

https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh....php?t=1716230