M3 vs Tesla Model 3? Just Speculation

[XsltAnalyst]

Yeah I know it's more of a speculation at this point since Model 3 details will be announced later this evening.

Model 3 maybe a more of a "competitor" for F30 but I am guessing they'll have a performance variants to rival the acceleration of the 340i, maybe even F80...

• Elon Musk is aiming at 3 series/A4/C class buyer, so I expect physical dimentions to be very close. (Their current Model S has very similar dimensions compared to 5 series)
• 200-300 Mile range depending on battery pack size and single vs dual motor. Not too far off from a 340i/M3 fuel range
  
• Loads of autonomous driving tech - probably a lot better compared to anything out there.

Of course, all of it's just a speculation and based on previous track record of Tesla motors it'll be 2-2.5 years till regular deliveries. New generation of 3 series will be out by then and not to mention tons of new EVs will be on market, including from BMW.
Don't get me wrong, I like ICE cars but for daily driving it would be cool to have a quick electric car that can silently blow past slower traffic without attracting too much attention. Not to mention being able to pre-cool/ pre-heat the car and get over the air updates now and then.

In any case, I am pretty excited and probably going to be in the market for EV in 2-3 years, after waiting a bit to see how it plays out. However, I'll still have at least one ICE car for those weekend drives.

EDIT: Details from the live unveiling I just watched

35K starting price
At least 215 Mile Range
0-60 MPH in less than 6 second even for the slowest version
Standard autonomous driving Hardware for all
Expected deliveries beginning end of 2017, but realistically 2-2.5 years based on their track record.

What I didn't like is the big screen sticking out from center, like in MB models but a lot worse. It's not integrated like in Model S
Otherwise, I think it looks decent and it'll definitely will be on my list in a few years

[FC]

My wife's eGolf will outsprint pretty much anything up to 40mph. Performance falls off a cliff after 50mph and it's pretty awful in the highway, but given how and where we drive it, tough to complain. That car spends 95% of it's time at under 50mph and making very short trips.

I can see how a Tesla can be addictive from a street lamp acceleration POV. But there is something about shifting, the rpms climbing, and filling up in a pinch that I still like too much. I figure I might as well get goo IC cars while they exist. There will be better and better electric cars in the future.

[DrtyJrze]

I think I saw an article somewhere that the T3 will match M3/4 0-60 times.

[nicknaz]

If that speculation of 3500lb is correct for the supposed m3 competitor that's interesting to me!

[XsltAnalyst]

Originally Posted by FC

My wife's eGolf will outsprint pretty much anything up to 40mph. Performance falls off a cliff after 50mph and it's pretty awful in the highway, but given how and where we drive it, tough to complain. That car spends 95% of it's time at under 50mph and making very short trips.

I can see how a Tesla can be addictive from a street lamp acceleration POV. But there is something about shifting, the rpms climbing, and filling up in a pinch that I still like too much. I figure I might as well get goo IC cars while they exist. There will be better and better electric cars in the future.

I test drove I3 last year and couldn't believe how much I liked it. Had so much fun just zipping around in it. It would have been a perfect car if I had a garage so I can charge it.

Originally Posted by DrtyJrze

I think I saw an article somewhere that the T3 will match M3/4 0-60 times.

Yeah that seems very possible if they build an awd version with a big battery pack. Price of that top of the line variant probably going to be very close to base price of M3

Originally Posted by nicknaz

If that speculation of 3500lb is correct for the supposed m3 competitor that's interesting to me!

Current Model S weighs 4,323 to 4,936 lbs so realistically maybe around 3800-4300 lb range, I think. However, battery tech is improving so we should see reduction in weight and increased energy capacity for batteries in the future.

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by FC

My wife's eGolf will outsprint pretty much anything up to 40mph. Performance falls off a cliff after 50mph and it's pretty awful in the highway, but given how and where we drive it, tough to complain. That car spends 95% of it's time at under 50mph and making very short trips.

We almost got an eGolf last year, but went with i3 instead (lighter, faster, more fun to drive, less practical rear doors).

EVs can be a ton of fun.
Coupled with Tesla-sized batteries and torque (e.g.: Model S), they are outright awesome!

Originally Posted by FC

I can see how a Tesla can be addictive from a street lamp acceleration POV. But there is something about shifting, the rpms climbing, and filling up in a pinch that I still like too much. I figure I might as well get goo IC cars while they exist. There will be better and better electric cars in the future.

I sort of agree in the sense that my current M3 may be the last performance ///M car that is purely ICE. From next gen on, everyone will be building at least hybrids.

Technology and progress are great.
You can always pump fake engine sounds to enhance EV or ICE in-cabin experience.


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[afadeev]

Originally Posted by XsltAnalyst

I test drove I3 last year and couldn't believe how much I liked it. Had so much fun just zipping around in it. It would have been a perfect car if I had a garage so I can charge it.

I can confirm that i3 is a great commuter car.
Not particularly suited for highway travel (unstable at highway speeds with cross winds, badly needs sport suspension and wider tires), but fantastic on back roads and around cities.

About 1/5th the cost of gasoline car to operate.

It does need a significantly larger battery. Current ~80 mile range from 18.8 KWh battery is minimalist (manageable with REX). MY'17 upgrade to ~120 mile is welcome, but way insufficient.

Model 3 will have 215 mile range.
At $35K, it will be faster, longer range, and cheaper than i3.

BMW better get its act together, or i3 will become a showroom museum exhibit!

Model 3 will take a significant bite out of 3-series/A4/C-class sales as well!

Originally Posted by XsltAnalyst

Yeah that seems very possible if they build an awd version with a big battery pack. Price of that top of the line variant probably going to be very close to base price of M3

AWD with ludicrous package will probably cost closer to M3, but will also outperform in some categories (0-60 in very low 3's).

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[2kaccordocoupe]

What people don't realize is that 35k is the starting price. Add a bigger battery, extra motor, options and it quickly will double in price.

The model s starts at 70k ish and the average car build ends up being north of 105k

[ando]

I'm open to a performance vehicle being sustainable but right now I want my car and its engine to engulf fuel. I also don't like the exterior and interior styling of the new Telsla so that being said I would never drive it.

[absoluteis350]

Originally Posted by 2kaccordocoupe

What people don't realize is that 35k is the starting price. Add a bigger battery, extra motor, options and it quickly will double in price.

The model s starts at 70k ish and the average car build ends up being north of 105k

Irrelevant. The M price climbs pretty quickly too. I'd be curious what the average M3/4 price paid is, once you add all the BMW options. I know for one, there are many sticker priced $90k M3/4s out there like mine, which is way the hell above the base price.

The only thing I want to know is its weight. The rest looks awesome.

[Macheins]

I expect to have a Model 3 sitting beside my M3 in the garage someday. I put my reservation in with the other 100k+ hopefuls last night.

I think Tesla really hits on a lot of aspects of car ownership that everyone loves... not just car enthusiasts. The cars feel futuristic, sleek, luxurious, safe, and very practical (price of the model S/X aside).

They may not be a car you expect to take out to track days or out on winding back roads to go wild... but they are still very fun to drive. The typical commuter experience is going to be either on major interstates/highways or from stoplight to stoplight. In those moments, Tesla provides all the performance anyone could ever want and more.

[04cobra]

If it does 0-60 somewhere in the 3.5- 3.7 range, I am in. Waiting to see what the top of the line Model 3 performer will do. I will use the Model 3 for my DD and once the GT500 comes out/announced have that along side it.

[ixse]

Is it just me or does model 3 front end looks like panamera

[absoluteis350]

Originally Posted by ixse

Is it just me or does model 3 front end looks like panamera

Exactly what my wife said, which should demonstrate how obvious it is.

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by 2kaccordocoupe

What people don't realize is that 35k is the starting price. Add a bigger battery, extra motor, options and it quickly will double in price.

Yeah, and no-one on these boards paid exactly $63.5K for our F8x cars either


You can max out builds into six figures (CF cup holder anyone?), but even the bare-bones baseline Model 3 at $35K (-$7.5K Federal EV rebate, while it lasts), is a steal.

Originally Posted by ando

I'm open to a performance vehicle being sustainable but right now I want my car and its engine to engulf fuel.

You must really despise McLaren P1 and Porsche 918 then...
... as well as pretty much every modern hyper-car that will ever be launched from now on ...

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[myzmak]

I tend to agree with afadeev ....cars using electric power for at least some of the thrust are the way of the future.

I am interested in the Tesla 3, though it isn't really an M competitor. (really fast acceleration is not the same as performance car - like the model S, it goes straight really quickly, but it isn't designed to be flung around a track)

It is, though, a 3 or 4 series competitor.

I don't think there will be a purely electric performance car for some time, but some sort of hybrid is probably coming for the next gen of M cars. More in the lines of the i8 / baby P1 / 918 /etc than the pure electric i3 or Tesla 3.

And what is wrong with that? (other than it represents change and some people just hate change)

[Bonzer103]

This is going to be a HUGE seller. Will replace all the Camrys/Malibus/Altimas on the road.

[RobbyMack]

Originally Posted by Bonzer103

This is going to be a HUGE seller. Will replace all the Camrys/Malibus/Altimas on the road.

I think this is more a threat to the entry level luxury market than the mid level domestic and import market. The cars you list are significantly cheaper than the model 3 (when optioned my guess is it will be about a $42-$45k car, I guess you could possibly option a Camry to this level, but why the hell would you want to), and I don't think the average buyer in the mid level domestic and import market will be willing to float the price difference until the next April to realize the tax benefit.

[afadeev]

Originally Posted by RobbyMack

I think this is more a threat to the entry level luxury market than the mid level domestic and import market. The cars you list are significantly cheaper than the model 3 (when optioned my guess is it will be about a $42-$45k car, I guess you could possibly option a Camry to this level, but why the hell would you want to), and I don't think the average buyer in the mid level domestic and import market will be willing to float the price difference until the next April to realize the tax benefit.

Model S blew apart the super-luxury car segment in the US, and finished 2015 dominating it at the expense of 7-series/S-class/A8:
http://gas2.org/2016/02/15/tesla-mod...porsche-in-us/

Note that super-luxury car segment has sold ~100K cars in the US for the last decade or so (ignoring great recession dip). Model S didn't grow that segment. It just stole the sales from every other established luxury automaker.

Similar story in Europe: http://www.bmwblog.com/2015/10/19/te...des-in-europe/

Model 3 is very likely to accomplish the same with 3-series/C-class/A4 market.
Not in year 1, but quickly thereafter. Especially if the German big-3 remain complacent.

Porsche is responding with "Mission-E" project.
BMW with i5, but too slowly (ETA 2020).
I don't know what Merc and VW/Audi/Porsche are planning, but all of the above are at a competitive disadvantage to Tesla as none of the Germans had bothered to invest into battery supply technology. To hit mass market, Tesla had to build their own battery supply chain (aka giga-factory), which doubles the world supply of EV batteries. BMW had invested into mass produced CF supply chain instead.

Model 3 may pull some sales from Prius's, Camry's, and Accords as well, but it will be the 3-series that will feel most of the pain.

We live in very interesting time in the auto industry...

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[ixse]

They will have high perf version most likely priced around 65k. Sub 4sec dual motor. Only if e cars sounded good... I personally cant do away with engine noise and vibration it brings out.. Without them, its hard to get emotionally attached

[nicknaz]

Originally Posted by Macheins

I expect to have a Model 3 sitting beside my M3 in the garage someday. I put my reservation in with the other 100k+ hopefuls last night.

+1 I put a deposit in a few minute ago. I'm good with getting one in late 2018-early 2019, since the plan is to have it replace my wife's E84 X135, not my F80 M3

I had earlier posted about wanting a 3500lb weight, but I'm caring a lot less about that since the car's role in my garage is confirmed as a pure commuter car. 215 miles, acceleration approximately similar to F30 328 and great convenience tech is good enough for me. I might end up with the AWD / large battery model for fun and more range but I don't have any illusions about tracking this thing and will keep gas cars around for that.

[RobbyMack]

Originally Posted by afadeev

Model S blew apart the super-luxury car segment in the US, and finished 2015 dominating it at the expense of 7-series/S-class/A8:
http://gas2.org/2016/02/15/tesla-mod...porsche-in-us/

Note that super-luxury car segment has sold ~100K cars in the US for the last decade or so (ignoring great recession dip). Model S didn't grow that segment. It just stole the sales from every other established luxury automaker.

Similar story in Europe: http://www.bmwblog.com/2015/10/19/te...des-in-europe/

Model 3 is very likely to accomplish the same with 3-series/C-class/A4 market.
Not in year 1, but quickly thereafter. Especially if the German big-3 remain complacent.

Porsche is responding with "Mission-E" project.
BMW with i5, but too slowly (ETA 2020).
I don't know what Merc and VW/Audi/Porsche are planning, but all of the above are at a competitive disadvantage to Tesla as none of the Germans had bothers investing into battery supply technology. To hit mass market, Tesla had to build their own battery supply chain (aka giga-factory), which doubles the world supply of EV batteries. BMW had invested into mass produced CF supply chain instead.

Model 3 may pull some sales from Prius's, Camry's, and Accords as well, but it will be the 3-series that will feel most of the pain.

We live in very interesting time in the auto industry...

a

Very interesting indeed. I wonder how much US sales were effected by two things. 1) federal tax credit 2) the initial consumer reports review. I suspect the tax credit will disappear and the longer term reviews of the model S haven't been as kind as consumer reports initial impressions. For Europe it's a no brainier to go tesla considering the tax advantages of EV.