Stock market tips and experiences

[dmatre]

Originally Posted by ASAP

do you think the average us consumer is doing well right now?

Prices up significantly over 5 years, minimal wage growth in the middle sector and unemployment slowly piling up? Again, I am not asking macro economic indicators that will drive wallstreet bonuses.

Judging by how crowded the planes & airports have been over the past weeks, I’d say the consumer isn’t hurting too badly.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by dmatre

Judging by how crowded the planes & airports have been over the past weeks, I’d say the consumer isn’t hurting too badly.

Some good info here for you -

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...pdf?sc_lang=en

Namely take note of consumer CC debt and balances.

Also... airports have been crowded for years (outside of the few Covid years)... sadly I would argue that's an infrastructure issue that hasn't been catered to a growing population for at least 20 years.

[chassis]

The average consumer is doing well. Very well.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

do you think the average us consumer is doing well right now?

Prices up significantly over 5 years, minimal wage growth in the middle sector and unemployment slowly piling up? Again, I am not asking macro economic indicators that will drive wallstreet bonuses.

Your question ignores my very cogent comments regarding interest rates. And qualifies as a straw man argument.

You appear to be implying that no consumers have exposure to "Wall Street"? I am a consumer and most certainly do. I am guessing that you do too. Unemployment has ticked up slightly from historic lows. 4.2% is hardly problematic.

I am not here to argue with anyone. Simply to post relevant information. Are you disputing something that I posted? If so, identify that with which you take issue (within context) and provide supporting data.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...il%20of%202020.

"Wages in the United States increased 6.30 percent in August of 2024 over the same month in the previous year. Wage Growth in the United States averaged 6.19 percent from 1960 until 2024". Average hourly wages rose .4% MoM in August.

[DrVenture]

Originally Posted by ASAP

Some good info here for you -

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...pdf?sc_lang=en

Namely take note of consumer CC debt and balances.

Also... airports have been crowded for years (outside of the few Covid years)... sadly I would argue that's an infrastructure issue that hasn't been catered to a growing population for at least 20 years.

Now drill down into the chart from the link that you posted. The largest increases in debt are from student loans and mortgage debt and auto loans, as well as CC debt. Education expenses have been outpacing other expenditures for years. And higher mortgages come from higher housing valuations. We all know (BMW forum) that people buy more car than they can generally afford. Perhaps a 20% drop in home prices would make everyone happier? I doubt it. Many would then complain about the loss of home equity.

What is your actual concern? Be specific. Are you struggling? Your family members? Or does this have something to do with politics or distaste for the FED? Most should be pretty happy with 6% wage growth, 3% GDP, a 75% drop in inflation, 4.2% unemployment and interest rates coming down.

[DrVenture]

Not to be a complete a-hole, but after driving economy cars, and keeping them 10-15 years, while investing and saving to put my kid through college (debt free) and pay off my home in 12 years, while funding my 401K to the max as a one-income "average" household, I have little sympathy for the "average consumer" who drove expensive cars and saddled their kids with education debt, while tapping their home equity.

I know a whole lot of people who made a whole lot more money than me and seem to not have a pot to piss in. I came to the conclusion years ago, that they couldn't be helped. In many cases, they wouldn't be helped. The common refrain being, "Don't tell me what to do". My response being, "Okay".

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by DrVenture

Now drill down into the chart from the link that you posted. The largest increases in debt are from student loans and mortgage debt and auto loans, as well as CC debt. Education expenses have been outpacing other expenditures for years. And higher mortgages come from higher housing valuations. We all know (BMW forum) that people buy more car than they can generally afford. Perhaps a 20% drop in home prices would make everyone happier? I doubt it. Many would then complain about the loss of home equity.

What is your actual concern? Be specific. Are you struggling? Your family members? Or does this have something to do with politics or distaste for the FED? Most should be pretty happy with 6% wage growth, 3% GDP, a 75% drop in inflation, 4.2% unemployment and interest rates coming down.

Most of my saltiness is with poor Govt / Fed policy as it relates to cost of living to an average middle class income consumer. Now - I will say this does not apply to me, my car is paid off, I have equity in my house and let's just say enough investments... however, I as opposed to most folks in this country like to think about others... as well as the younger generation coming into place. I would be ok with a 20% drop in equity in my house as long as affordability came back... are you OK and most of America ok with this? Don't think so... but more than likely thats because most of America overbought and here we are. Also, you keep showing wage growth... but you omit that it comes from the bottom of the wage pool.

[DrVenture]

My home is only a small fraction of my total net worth. So, I don't even think about it.

Caring about peoples wealth as it pertains to their well-being is a losing strategy. I choose to care about it just as much as they do - which appears to be little at all. So many lifelong friends share their info with me. I know what they do, how much they make and how they allocate it. All are typical middle-class and almost all are dual-income. Many average folks are doing just fine. Some struggle despite average expenses and $150-200K household incomes, in this medium-cost Midwest environment. The government is not the source of their problems with money. Their problems relate to planning and self-restraint and sound financial judgment. They tend to blame external forces. But cannot explain why people just like them are doing better.

Certainly the government did not force these people to "overbuy". As you say, "most of America overbought", maybe they need less sympathy and more tough love?

I am not "omitting" anything, nor am I focusing on a statistical slice that serves my narrative. I posted an average. I also believe it is good when the majority of wage growth occurs at the bottom of the wage spectrum. Those are the folks who will benefit most. I put my empathy where it may be most deserved. It is about time they get their due.