Quote:
Originally Posted by Poiseuille
so for this equation your source uses 1.1 million (or so) as its denominator when in fact we have no idea how many are or have been infected. for example: it can not be known how many infected persons never develop reportable symptoms and we are not able to know how many administered tests resulted in false negatives. in fact, the mortality rate for this virus can not be known in real time and I am suspicious of authorities who claim otherwise.
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South Korea has some of the best numbers because of their extensive testing and has been somewhere in the 1.5% range. In the US, the numerator is just as suspect because patients die before they make it to the hospital or before their COVID-19 test comes back in the hospital. Their death certificates are for a more generic cause. No one is testing the bodies of those who died before they could be swabbed.
I think well before we have a vaccine, testing will pick up in the US this summer. Once we have extensive testing, tracing of contacts and focused quarantine can take place, allowing the rest of the population more freedom. I think we'll see gradual loosening later in June, supported by test and trace programs, but some restrictions for the remainder of the year. Unfortunately, we're still struggling with testing in this country.